The Italian Serie A returns this weekend following the Champions League and Europa League clashes, and we selected the matchup between Roma and Milan as the most attractive in this round as only three teams are separating them in the table.
The gap between the two sides is nine points and Milan has an opportunity to cut it and enter in the mix for one of the UCL places, but it seems that they have better chance to win the UEL than to finish among the top four teams in Serie A. On the other hand, Roma should find their place in the Europe’s elite competition next season, but a potential defeat here could shake their confidence. The game will take place at Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, February 25th.
Roma vs. Milan
Three-Way: 1: Roma -111; X: +250 Draw; 2: Milan +320 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread -0.5: Roma -109; Milan +100
Total 2.5 goals: Over -118; Under -105
The Yellow and Reds are in a fine form in Serie A after recording three consecutive wins, but they suffered a 2-1 defeat in the opening leg of the Champions League 1/8 finals in Ukraine. Shakhtar came back from a goal down to secure a victory, and Roma will have to win in the returning leg if they want to continue participation in the UCL. Eusebio Di Francesco’s side is currently in the 3rd place in the league with 50 points, even 16 behind the leaders Napoli, but a point ahead of the city rivals Lazio.
Roma played 33 games so far in the 2017/18, recording 18 victories, seven draws, and eight losses, with a goal difference of 51:29, which is 2.42 goals per contest on average. The Yellow and Reds are not playing very well at home lately, winning just one and losing three in the previous five matches, conceding eight and scoring eight goals in the process.
Edin Dzeko is the team’s top scorer with 14 goals in 33 appearances; Stephan El Shaarawy scored seven, Diego Perotti added six, while Cengiz Under has five goals to his name. Aleksandar Kolarov is the most creative individual at Stadio Olimpico with nine assists; El Shaarawy has seven dishes to his name, while Dzeko and Radja Nainggolan have five assists apiece. Eusebio Di Francesco cannot count on Maxime Gonalons (calf), Rick Karsdorp (cruciate ligament rupture), and Jonathan Silva (collateral ligament injury).
The Red and Blacks are in an excellent form of 11 matches without a defeat, and they won the last four without conceding a single goal. Milan routinely eliminated Ludogorets out of the Europa League’s 1/16 finals with a 4-0 win on aggregate but will face the tough task against Arsenal in the next round. Gennaro Gattuso’s side is in the 7th position in Serie A with 41 points, nine behind Roma and seven behind the city rivals Inter, but with a potential win in Rome, Milan’s chances of ending the season in the 4th spot would increase significantly.
Milan played 40 games in this campaign, recording 23 victories, eight draws, and nine losses, with a goal difference of 66:36, which is 2.55 goals per contest on average. The Red and Blacks didn’t suffer an away loss in the previous five road matches, scoring 11 goals in the process and allowing three in return.
Patrick Cutrone is the team’s leading scorer with 13 goals in 31 appearances; Andre Silva and Suso scored eight goals apiece, while Giacomo Bonaventure has six goals to his name. Suso is the best assist-maker with ten dishes so far; Hakan Calhanoglu added eight, while Fabio Borini has seven assists to his name. Gennaro Gattuso is happy to have almost all of the players at his disposal as only Andrea Conti (cruciate ligament injury) is sidelined.
Roma vs. Milan – Betting Trends and Match Prediction
- Roma won just one out of the previous five matches at home
- Roma scored eight goals in the last five games at home
- Roma conceded eight goals in the previous five home matches
- Milan is unbeaten in the last 11 matches overall
- Milan scored 11 goals in the previous five road games
- Milan kept the clean sheet in the last four matches in total
Roma won in the previous four H2H duels, but although the hosts are the favorites on this one, I am not very convinced that they will win because they are not playing well at the moment. Milan is in a better form and could make a little surprise here, but I am not brave enough to pick them as the winners, so I am going with goals on both sides.
MY PICK: Both teams to score YES (-130)