Red Bull Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen – Match of the Day (Round 29)

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Leipzig is playing well in both Europa League and Bundesliga at the moment and is hoping to finish in the top four this season, which would guarantee them a place in the Champions League next term, but their direct rival is Leverkusen and the visitors are highly motivated to get a positive result here. Bayer is still alive in the DFB Pokal where they will face Bayern Munich in the semis, but securing a spot in Europe’s elite competition is the main objective for them. The game will take place at Red Bull Arena on Monday, April 9th.

Red Bull Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Three-Way: 1: Leipzig +129; X: +250 Draw; 2: Leverkusen +200 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Leipzig +123; Leverkusen -147

Total 2.5 goals: Over -143; Under +110

RED BULL LEIPZIG

The Red Bulls are in a fine form of seven consecutive games without a defeat, and after securing a pair of wins over Bayern Munich and Hannover in Bundesliga, they beat Marseille in an opening leg of the Europa League quarter-finals. Leipzig scored in the dying moments of the first half through Timo Werner, and although the French opposition had more goal-scoring opportunities, the hosts managed to keep their net intact which could play a huge part in the returning leg. Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side is currently in the 4th position with 46 points, six behind the second-placed Schalke and one point ahead of Leverkusen and Frankfurt, so they cannot afford to lose here if they want to keep their UCL hopes alive.

Red Bull Leipzig played 41 games so far in the 2017/18, recording 19 victories, nine draws, and 13 losses, with a goal difference of 66:55, which is 2.95 goals per contest on average. The Red Bulls are unbeaten in the previous four matches at home, winning the last three and scoring five goals in the process and allowing two in return.

Timo Werner is the team’s top scorer with 19 goals in 39 appearances, while Jean-Kevin Augustin and Naby Keita contributed with eight goals apiece. Marcel Sabitzer is the best assist-maker with nine dishes to his name; Yussuf Poulsen and Werner added eight assists each, while Keita has six. Ralph Hasenhüttl cannot count on Marcel Halstenberg (cruciate ligament rupture) and Stefan Ilsanker (knee), while the rest of the squad is healthy and raring to go.

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Bayer failed to get a win in the previous two Bundesliga matches, which is quite disappointing considering they faced Koln and Augsburg and collected only a point, but they can bounce back on Monday in a direct duel for the Champions League place. Leverkusen controlled the most of the tilt with Augsburg at home and had 66% of ball possession, but attempted just two shots on target out of 18 in total, so the game finished 0-0. Heiko Herrlich’s side is in the 5th place at the moment with 45 points, the same amount as Eintracht Frankfurt, and one behind Leipzig, so this game has enormous importance in their UCL quest.

Bayer Leverkusen played 32 games in this campaign, recording 16 victories, nine draws, and seven losses, with a goal difference of 54:38, which is 2.87 goals per contest on average. Bayer was fantastic on the road as they were unbeaten in 11 consecutive matches before Koln surprisingly defeated them, 2-0. It was the only second time of this season Leverkusen failed to score on the road.

Leon Bailey is the team’s leading scorer with 11 goals in 27 appearances; Kevin Volland is right behind him on a goal-scoring chart with ten goals, while Julian Brandt and Lucas Alario are tracking them with nine and eight, respectively. Kai Havertz is the most creative individual at BayArena with seven assists, while Brandt, Alario, and Lars Bender added five dishes apiece. Heiko Herrlich will be without suspended Alario and injured Joel Pohjanpalo (ankle), but the rest of the squad is fit and at the coach’s disposal.

Red Bull Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen – Betting Trends and Match Prediction

  • Leipzig scored at least a goal in each of the previous five matches at home
  • Leipzig allowed a goal in five out of the last six games at Red Bull Arena
  • Leverkusen failed to score an away goal only twice in 16 games this season
  • Leverkusen conceded four goals in the previous three road matches

Leipzig won two out of the three H2H tilts since they joined Bundesliga in 2016, and was victorious in the only meeting at Red Bull Arena, while the first clash of this season ended 2-2 in Leverkusen. I expect to see a similar outcome on this one, so I am backing goals on both sides, which was the case in two out of three H2H meetings.

MY PICK: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (-110)