Purdue vs. Northwestern College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


The Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5) and Northwestern Wildcats will do battle on the grass at Ryan Field. BTN owns the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET. These teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 31-27 victory for Northwestern.

Purdue vs. Northwestern Betting Predictions 11/9/2019

In this Saturday Big Ten game, Purdue is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 1.5 points. The Boilermakers are also receiving -120 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +100. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points. If one team finds paydirt in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a nice betting opportunity in-game.

The under is getting most of the early sharp action, as the game’s O/U was placed originally at 41.5.

The less-than-stellar Boilermakers are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 7.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-4.

The Wildcats are down 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-6.

The Boilermakers have gone 3-6 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play.

The Boilermakers are coming off a 31-27 win over Nebraska last weekTheir defense allowed the Cornhuskers to rush for 128 yards on 35 attempts, including three rush TDs. JD Spielman had a productive day for the Cornhuskers in that one with 123 yards on six catches. On the offensive side of the ball, the Boilermakers completed 31-of-41 passes for 304 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jack Plummer went 25-for-34 for 242 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Aidan O’Connell completed six-of-seven for 62 yards. King Doerue (71 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Plummer (61 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack. Brycen Hopkins (eight receptions, 97 yards) and David Bell (seven catches, 23 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Northwestern just dropped a 34-3 game to Indiana. The defensive unit allowed the Hoosiers to eat up the clock by rushing for 144 yards on 51 attempts, including three rush TDs. Stevie Scott III put up a good outing for Indiana, recording 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts, along with 20 yards on one catch. As a group, the Wildcats collectively completed 12-of-31 passes for 112 yards. Hunter Johnson went seven-for-17 for 65 yards while Aidan Smith was five-of-12 for 47 yards. Drake Anderson (11 yards on seven rush attempts) mounted the running game while Riley Lees (five receptions, 36 yards) and Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman (three catches, 43 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Purdue’s run the ball on 41.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has a rush percentage of 56.5 percent. The Boilermakers have run for 77 yards/game (including 91 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have six scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are putting up 134 rushing yards per game (117 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

The Boilermakers offense has averaged 302 yards in the air overall (267 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 124 pass yards per outing (118.7 in the Big 10) and have two total pass TDs.

Purdue has let opponents run for an average of 163 yards and pass for 245 yards per game. The Northwestern D has allowed 191.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Boilermakers have given up an ANY/A of 6.58 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats are yielding an ANY/A of 6.87.

Plummer is up to 1,534 passing yards this season, and has completed 137-of-222 attempts with 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Plummer has a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.22 over the past two games.

In the hosts’ locker room, Aidan Smith has connected on 42-of-95 passes for 362 yards, one TD and five INTs. Smith’s ANY/A sits at a very poor 1.22 for the year and 2.51 across his last two outings.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Free Prediction

SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Purdue, O/U – Over


Betting Trends

The Boilermakers offense has created eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have put up one such play.

The Purdue defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northwestern has given up four such plays.

The Purdue offense has created two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Northwestern has created four such runs.

The Boilermakers defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wildcats have given up eight such runs.

The Purdue defense has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. Northwestern has produced 15 sacks.

Purdue has produced 3.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.5 over its last two.

Northwestern has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.4 over its past two.

In its last three matchups, Northwestern is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Purdue’s previous game going into it was 57. The over cashed in the team’s 31-27 win over Nebraska.

In its last three contests, Purdue is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Northwestern’s last match going into it was 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 34-3 loss to Indiana.


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