Many of the NFL draftees are still coming to terms with their dreams becoming a reality, but expectations are still being placed on their 2020 performances. All those star players from college will now step up a level and see how they fare in their rookie NFL seasons.
BetOnline Sportsbook unveiled some player props from the 2020 NFL Draft Class and there are a lot of interesting numbers out there to dissect. There are props for both offensive and defensive players and the quarterbacks, as you would expect, are front and center with the offerings.
We’ll take a look at the props and throw out some quick analysis on these and see if we can’t catch a few nice positions to hold going into the season. All lines are -120 unless noted.
Over/under 3,800 passing yards
Over/under 22.5 pass TD
Over/under 16.5 INT
Only three quarterbacks threw more than 16 interceptions last season. They were Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, and Philip Rivers. The odds that Burrow throws at least 17 picks seem pretty low to me. While he doesn’t have a ton of polished and proven weapons, he’s a very cerebral QB that should make smart decisions with the football.
Andy Dalton was second in pass attempts per game last season with 40.6. The Bengals trailed a ton and project to trail a ton again this season. Fourteen QBs went over 3,800 passing yards last season. Dalton was not one of them, but he only played 13 games.
Opportunities will be there for overs, but I think the only safe bet is under 16.5 interceptions. He’s too smart and careful with the football.
Over/under 3,200 passing yards
Over/under 19 pass TD
Over/under 15.5 INT (-110/-130)
The terms of the QB props state that the player must start Week 1. We have no idea if Tua will do that. The smart money would be on “No” right now because he won’t have any summer practices or minicamps and training camp and the preseason could look a lot different this year because of the coronavirus and a revised schedule.
I don’t think these are really worth exploring. I don’t think he starts Week 1. For the sake of argument, the Dolphins project to trail a ton again and they were seventh in pass attempts last season and dead last in rushing attempts. Opportunities will be there to put up numbers and these are fairly manageable.
Again, like Burrow, Tua should take care of the football and we’re talking about INT numbers that only the most turnover-prone QBs had last season.
Over/under 3,400 passing yards (-110/-130)
Over/under 21 pass TD
Over/under 17.5 INT
Of the three quarterbacks, Herbert is the one I would expect the highest interception totals from if we assume all three guys start all of the games. The under on passing yards makes sense as well, though Herbert will rack up easy yards throwing to Austin Ekeler.
Unfortunately, once again, Herbert probably won’t start Week 1 with Tyrod Taylor there and a whole bunch of uncertainty leading into the season.
Over/under 950 Total Yards
The first running back taken in the 2020 NFL Draft went 32nd to the Kansas City Chiefs, which is an ideal landing spot for any skill player. CEH is even listed as the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at some places. Fifty-nine players had at least 950 yards from scrimmage last season. Want an interesting stat? Only one was a Kansas City Chief. That was Travis Kelce.
I think it’s fair to assume that Edwards-Helaire will be a huge part of the Chiefs offense while also acknowledging the fact that he has to share touches with a lot of different players.
On the other hand, Damien Williams had 711 and only played 11 games, so he was on pace to go well over 950. The question is how many reps Edwards-Helaire gets. If he is more of a third-down back exclusively, the touches just might not be there.
While this may look like an easy over, I’m not sure it is.
Over/under 625 rushing yards
The Detroit Lions believe that they got a first-round talent in the second round with D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. Reps are available in the Motor City. Kerryon Johnson only had 3.6 yards per carry and didn’t feature prominently as a receiver either. Bo Scarbrough and Ty Johnson are still young guys, but Swift would seem to have a higher level of upside.
Kerryon only played eight games and Scarbrough only suited up for six, but had 4.2 yards per carry on 89 attempts in those six games. Swift seems to be falling into something of a by-committee approach, which is why this line is a little on the low end.
The league average yards per carry last season was 4.3. If we assume Swift is average, it would take 146 carries to get there. Thirty-one running backs had at least 146 carries last season, so it is doable, if he is treated as more of the feature back. We also have to consider how much the Lions run with Matt Stafford back, if Stafford comes back okay.
I’d lean towards the over here, but this is a tricky one.
Over/under 550 rushing yards (-140/100)
Marlon Mack’s health is the leverage point for this prop. Mack has battled through a lot of injuries the last two seasons, but he also had 247 of the 471 carries for the Colts last year. Jacoby Brissett was second in carries with 56. Taylor’s presence will undoubtedly take some of the strain off of Mack.
The Colts offense is in a state of flux going to Philip Rivers. We know Rivers doesn’t have a lot of bullets left in the gun. We also know that the Colts do like to run the football. I wouldn’t be thrilled to lay additional juice on an over prop with so much uncertainty regarding how these first-round picks will be used. To a degree, this one seems safer, but Taylor has to steal carries from an established rusher that had over 1,000 yards last year.
CeeDee Lamb over/under 850 receiving yards (100/-140)
Henry Ruggs III over/under 800 receiving yards
Jalen Reagor over/under 700 receiving yards
Jerry Jeudy over/under 900 receiving yards
Justin Jefferson over/under 750 receiving yards
The top five wide receivers all have odds listed for over/under receiving yards. They all should get opportunities. Of this group, my favorite one is Justin Jefferson over 750 yards. Stefon Diggs is gone, traded away to Buffalo for the pick that got Jefferson. Adam Thielen played 10 games last season.
In Thielen’s absence, nobody stepped up. Olabisi Johnson had a 69% catch rate, but was only targeted 45 times in 16 games. The tight ends had to play a bigger role. The Vikings are looking to replace 63 catches and 94 targets for Diggs. Jefferson is going to start right away and be a big part of the equation for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense with new OC Gary Kubiak.
I would also look at Ruggs under 800 yards. Only one Raider had more than 800 yards last season and it was tight end Darren Waller. Derek Carr may have a hard time getting the ball to Ruggs. Carr isn’t a great deep-ball thrower and Ruggs isn’t the most polished route runner as of yet. Unless Ruggs is force fed by Carr, I’m not sure that chemistry will be there right away.
I would also look under 900 for Jerry Jeudy. No knock on him as a player, but we are far from certain that Drew Lock will be able to spread the ball around with any degree of efficiency and there are a ton of different options within this offense. Maybe Jeudy winds up being a focal point, but that means taking touches away from proven commodities in Courtland Sutton and the stable of running backs.