Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick 09/21/19

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against their division rival Milwaukee Brewers. The matchup gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and you can catch the game on either ATPT or FSWI.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Milwaukee (-205) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+187). If you think the game’s total will finish under 9.5 runs scored, then bookmakers are teeing up -120 odds. Taking the over will give you even money (+100). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at -115 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and -105 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Brewers are 84-70 straight up (SU) and 71-82 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 3.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 17.2 units ATS. The Pirates, on the other hand, have gone 65-89 SU this year and are 73-80 ATS. They’ve lost 13.2 units for moneyline bettors and 23.7 units ATS.

Milwaukee games have an over/under record of 65-83-5 in 2019. Pittsburgh has been a strong over bet with a total record of 87-58-8.

James Marvel will get the nod for Pittsburgh. Marvel is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and four strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Brewers are turning to righty Zach Davies (10-7, 3.70 ERA), who has 98 strikeouts and 50 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.33. Davies is 2-0 with 12 strikeouts and a 2.31 ERA over four starts against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 5.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.46 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.28 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.97, along with a WHIP of 1.45.

Pirates hitters have slashed .266/.325/.425 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).

Outfielders Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds continue to lead Pittsburgh’s hitters. Marte is slashing .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 82 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 stolen bases. Reynolds (.321/.385/.516) has produced 16 homers, 67 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

For the home team, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.53, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 71 games against NL Central opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.84 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.94.

Milwaukee’s hitters are putting up 4.7 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .213/.293/.400 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Brewers’ batters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 stolen bases, and Cain’s line is .250/.316/.355 with 10 homers, 45 RBIs, 73 runs and 18 stolen bases.

The Pirates have lost 2.7 units and are 56-56 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over’s hit in 59 of those games, compared to 46 that’ve gone under against -handed starting pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Free Prediction

Predictions:SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The under has hit in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.

The Brewers have won six of their last seven games SU.

Pittsburgh has posted 21.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit three home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 13 over their last 10.