Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick 09/22/19

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Starling Marte and the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The game gets going at 2:10 p.m. ET and the action will be shown on both ATPT and FSWI.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Milwaukee (getting -255 odds) is the giant favorite over Pittsburgh and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total stand at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. There’s a runline of Pirates +1.5 (+105) and Brewers -1.5 (-125) for this matchup.

The Brewers are 85-70 straight up (SU) and 72-82 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 16.1 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Pirates are 65-90 SU and have gone 73-81 ATS. They’re down 14.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 24.9 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Brewers games have had an over/under record of 66-83-5 in 2019. Pittsburgh has been a great over bet with a total record of 88-58-8.

Trevor Williams is getting the start for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Williams (7-7, 5.66 ERA) has racked up 102 punchouts in 133.2 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA against Milwaukee this year.

The Brewers will turn to righty Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.69 ERA), who has 140 punchouts and 30 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.16. Woodruff is 2-0 with 21 strikeouts and a 5.09 ERA across three starts against Pittsburgh this year.

Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.51, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. In 72 games against divisional foes, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.78 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.85.

The Milwaukee offense has put up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.8 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .224/.330/.408 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have led the Brewers’ offense this year. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 steals, while Cain’s line sits at .253/.318/.360 with 10 homers, 47 RBIs, 73 runs and 18 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.28 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.01, along with a WHIP of 1.45.

The Pirates offense has slashed .266/.325/.424 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 1.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds. Marte is slashing .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 82 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 steals, while Reynolds is hitting .318/.382/.511 with 16 homers, 67 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

The Pirates have lost 3.7 units and are 56-57 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 60 of those games, as opposed to 46 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 5.1 units and are 51-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 50 of those games, as opposed to 53 that’ve gone under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

The over has hit in only two of Milwaukee’s last seven games.

The Pirates have a total OPS of .749 this season and an OPS of .766 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Brewers’ OPS sits at .769 overall and .765 versus righties.

The Brewers have won seven of their last eight games SU.

Pittsburgh has recorded 21.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.4 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit two home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 12 over their last 10.