Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds Pick 2020/01/28

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The Dallas Mavericks (29-17) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they challenge the Phoenix Suns (19-27). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 230.5 points with Dallas opening as a 7-point favorite. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 28, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona.

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Free Preview

The last time the Suns played, they were beaten by the Memphis Grizzlies, 114-109. They failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton contributed 17 points and 15 rebounds in the contest. Memphis held the Suns to an effective field goal percentage of 0.440 (below their season average of 0.525). Phoenix, meanwhile, forced the Grizzlies into a turnover percentage of 20.8 (above their season average of 12.8). The two teams combined to put up 223 points, which was under the projected point total of 229.5.

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The Mavericks will look to maintain momentum after topping the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last outing, 107-97, as 3.5-point underdogs. Dallas was lifted by Luka Doncic, who was the top scorer from either team with 29 points on 10-for-24 shooting. Dallas played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.2 (below their season average of 24.8) and a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 10.8). Oklahoma City put up marks of 12.0 and 7.8, respectively, for those same stats. Combined, the two teams scored 204 points, which finished well under the O/U total of 227.

Dallas could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their upper-echelon offense goes up against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Mavericks rank fifth in effective field goal percentage (0.545), while Phoenix ranks 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540).

Of Phoenix’s 46 games, 24 have finished over the O/U total, while 27 of Dallas’ 45 games have finished over the O/U total. The Mavericks come into this game with a clear advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 29-17 SU and 26-19 ATS, while the Suns are 19-27 SU and 23-22-1 ATS.

These two teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 233 points, just over the projected point total of 229.5. The Mavericks won 120-113, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The Mavericks dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.388 and a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 7.3. The Suns put up marks of 0.194 and 8.8, respectively, for those same stats. Doncic put up a double-double in the victory with 42 points and 11 assists.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Prediction

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Suns rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (15.2).

Phoenix ranks 12th in steals per game (7.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.2).

Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.6) while Phoenix ranks 22nd (43.8).

Phoenix ranks 14th in points in the paint per game (47.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.1).

Phoenix is 13-8 ATS on the road with 12 unders and 9 overs.

Dallas is 10-14 ATS at home with 14 overs and 10 unders.

In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 8-0 and Phoenix is 6-2.

When reaching 100 points, the Mavericks are 29-15 and the Suns are 18-22.

The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.4) while the Suns rank 18th (32.3).

Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Phoenix ranks 27th (5.8).

The Mavericks rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Suns rank 23rd (12.2).

The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.1) while the Mavericks rank 14th (24.1).

Phoenix ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.1).

Bettings Trends:

Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Over its last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.

The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 6.9 for the season.

During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 108.0 points per game (4.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (0.9 below their season average).

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