Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Free Pick 09/23/19

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The Philadelphia Phillies will make a road trip to Nationals Park to face their NL East nemesis Washington Nationals. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia to catch the action.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Odds

Washington (-175) is favored over Philadelphia (+165) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -135 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +115 for the Nationals -1.5.

The Nationals are 85-69 straight up (SU) and 85-68 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 12.5 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Phillies have gone 79-75 SU this year and are 74-79 ATS. They’re down 3.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.5 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Nationals games have a 72-73-8 over/under record in 2019. Phillies games have gone under 77 times, gone over 72 times and pushed on four occasions.

Zach Eflin will get the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Eflin (9-12, 4.00 ERA) has racked up 121 strikeouts in 150.2 innings so far. He’s 2-1 with 21 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Washington this year (three starts).

The Nationals are turning to lefty Patrick Corbin (13-7, 3.10 ERA), who’s got 224 strikeouts and 64 walks, along with a 1.16 WHIP. Corbin is 1-0 with 24 strikeouts and a 3.32 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.32 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.49, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K/9 of 8.90.

Phillies hitters have slashed .247/.323/.428 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura continue to lead Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .282/.335/.403 with 12 home runs, 68 RBIs and 71 runs scored. Segura (.281/.326/.427) is up to 12 homers, 59 RBIs and 78 runs scored.

For the home team, Washington’s pitchers have yielded 4.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.89 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 71 games against divisional foes, Nationals starters have an ERA of 3.55 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.50.

The Washington offense is putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .278/.360/.394 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Nationals’ batters have been led by third baseman Anthony Rendon and right fielder Adam Eaton. Rendon is slashing .325/.410/.609 with 34 home runs, 120 RBIs and 114 runs scored, while Eaton’s line is .280/.363/.427 with 14 homers, 47 RBIs, 97 runs and 14 steals.

The Phillies have lost 9.0 units and are 17-24 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 23 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 3.4 units and are 63-51 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 56 of those games, compared to 54 that went under.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

Philadelphia has recorded 20 extra-base hits over its last five games. Washington has 12 XBH over its last five.

Washington has posted 22.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.2 over its last five.

The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 10 over their last 10.

The Phillies have a team OPS of .751 this season and an OPS of .782 against left-handed pitchers. The Nationals’ OPS stands at .792 overall and .818 against lefties.

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