Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds Pick 02/03/20


The Miami Heat (33-15) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they take on the Philadelphia 76ers (31-19). Miami opened as a 3.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213 points. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, February 3, 2020, and it can be seen on NBATV.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Betting Preview

The 76ers were blown out by the Boston Celtics in their last game, 116-95. They failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons had a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-14 shooting. Boston had a better turnover percentage (9.3 vs. 12.5). Philadelphia, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 23.1). The two teams combined to score 211 points, which came in just over the O/U total of 210.5.

The last time the Heat took the court, they comfortably covered the 3.5-point spread against the Orlando Magic, 102-89. Miami rallied around Meyers Leonard, who put up 18 points and 14 rebounds. Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.273 (above their season average of 0.237) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.8 (above their season average of 20.9). For those same stats, Orlando was 0.169 and 15.6, respectively. The two teams collectively scored 191 points, which was well under the O/U total of 216.5.

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. Miami ranks 22nd in possessions per game (101.0) and Philadelphia is 25th (100.7).

Of Philadelphia’s 50 games, 25 have finished over the projected point total, while 28 of Miami’s 48 games have finished over the projected point total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Heat have a significant advantage. They are 33-15 SU and 26-20-2 ATS, while the 76ers are 31-19 SU and 22-25-3 ATS.

These two teams have met three times already this year, with the Heat leading the series two games to one. Joel Embiid led both teams with 35 points in the most recent contest, in which the 76ers lost 117-116 but covered as 1.5-point underdogs. The two teams combined to score 233 points, which was 19.5 points above the projected point total of 213.5 points. The Heat’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the 76ers. Miami had a rate of 7.0, while Philadelphia posted a mark of 8.1.

76ers at Heat Betting Prediction

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over


Betting Notes:

The 76ers rank 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.4) while the Heat rank 26th (18.2).

Philadelphia ranks 18th in points in the paint per game (47.6) while Miami ranks 26th (44.9).

Philadelphia ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.0) while Miami ranks 17th (24.6).

Philadelphia leads the league with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game while Miami is second with 41.9 rebounds allowed per game.

On the road, Philadelphia is 9-16-1 ATS with 13 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.

Miami is 15-8-1 ATS at home with 15 overs and 9 unders.

Miami is 7-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Philadelphia is 14-1.

When scoring more than 100 points, the Heat are 32-10 and the 76ers are 27-8.

The 76ers rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 14th (12.7).

Philadelphia ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (28.4) while Miami ranks 28th (37.3).

The 76ers rank ninth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Heat rank 26th (4.3).

The 76ers average 8.3 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8).

Philadelphia ranks ninth in fast break points per game (14.3) while Miami ranks 25th (10.6).

Bettings Trends:

Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.

Over its last five games, Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.

The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 3.8 for the season.

During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 106.0 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (3.6 above their season average).