It's time for a second look at the Presidential Election Odds. As I said in the first article of this series, I would prefer to bet on sports versus politics/elections. Still, the fact remains: money is money and if there are ways to get an edge on the books, I'm always glad to find them. I've done extremely well betting on elections in the past, and I'm happy to be able to write about this election here at BangtheBook. Back in the primary season, I gave out some free plays on BangtheBook Radio, and those were very successful. Hopefully the general election thoughts are able to help some people as well.
If you want more background on the article and my overall thoughts on making money betting on elections, refer back to the first article from August. Rather than rehash everything, I'd like to be able to take a closer look at some of the current values on the board.
First, let's take a look at the overall election winner odds. At BetDSI, Hillary Clinton is currently listed at -204 and Donald Trump is +178. At 5Dimes, Hillary Clinton is -220 and Donald Trump is +180. At BetOnline, Hillary Clinton is -200 and Donald Trump is +170. As with everything in betting, it is really important to shop around for the best odds.
Looking at the overall picture, the last few weeks have been better for Donald Trump. In fact, Hillary Clinton was actually -350 and even -400 at some books for a little while. The RealClearPolitics average of polls currently shows Hillary Clinton with a 1.1% lead on Donald Trump. Odds of about -210 on Clinton imply a 67.74% chance of Clinton winning.
A really good tool for bettors to use to try to find value is PredictIt. PredictIt is a predictions site where real money is placed on all things pertaining to politics. All contracts on their site are bought and sold on the marketplace throughout the day. Contracts expire at 0 cents or $1.00 per share. Basically, if something is trading at 67 cents per share, the market believes there is a 67% chance of it coming true. Hillary Clinton is at 67 cents per share on PredictIt right now, which means the sportsbooks are right in line.
State By State Betting Picks
The state by state odds from sportsbooks are really limited this time around, because 5Dimes doesn't have any listed. Fortunately, BetDSI does have a few of the key states listed. On others, I will reference PredictIt, where it is definitely easy to place these bets (I personally do) and cash out.
BetDSI has the Democratic Party candidate odds of winning the state at -335 with the Republican Party at +253. Remember, on the sportsbooks these are listed this way in case Clinton or Trump end up not running (the chances of this are extremely small). For example, if Bernie Sanders were to end up winning the state as a Democrat, you would still cash out if you had Democratic Party here.
I like the Democratic Party -335 here. That implies a 77% chance of winning, and I believe the chances are definitely higher than that. In the last 25 polls conducted in New Hampshire, Donald Trump hasn't led a single one of them. Clinton has led in 24 of the polls, and one of them was tied.
New Hampshire has trended toward the Democrats in the last few election cycles. George W. Bush won the state in 2000 before losing it in 2004. Barack Obama carried the state by 10% against John McCain and 5.6% against Mitt Romney. Since 2004, New Hampshire has voted to the left of the nation in every election. Take the Democratic Party here.
BetDSI has the Democratic Party at -156 and the Republican Party at +127 here. At RealClearPolitics, Trump has a 0.1% lead on Clinton in Florida. Nate Silver at 538 (popular elections prediction site) has Trump's chances of winning Florida at 53.9%. PredictIt has his chance at 46%. The price of +127 implies a 44% chance of winning for Trump, so I believe there is a little value here on Donald Trump.
Trump has a home in Florida and has done a lot of business in the state. He did far better than expected in the primary in Florida, and I give him a 50/50 shot of winning the state. When you are getting a decent plus money price, it is worth a shot.
This one is only available on PredictIt. Right now, you can buy Clinton to win the state at 85 cents (85%). This is definitely a nice price. Obama won Oregon by 16% in 2008 and 12% in 2012. Remember, he only won the overall popular vote by 7% in 2008 and less than 4% in 2012. Oregon leans hard to the left and this is a state where Clinton's chances of winning are definitely north of 90%.
This one is also only available on PredictIt. You can get Donald Trump to win Kansas at 89 cents (89%). Here's another one that is too cheap. Mitt Romney won Kansas by a whopping 21 percentage points in 2012. He lost the popular vote by almost 4%. Do we really think this one will flip that quickly in the matter of four years? There's no doubt it will be closer than before, but Trump is going to win Kansas. The latest poll here puts him ahead by 12%. Take Trump in Kansas.
How about some free money? Hillary Clinton is at 93 cents (93%) to win California. Take Clinton here. I have just as good of a chance at winning California as Donald Trump. Literally. The demographics don't fit Trump well at all, and all of the models I have seen have Clinton's chances of winning at 99% or higher. Polls have Clinton ahead by 20 percent or more here. Take Clinton in California.
I'll be back in October with another look at the Presidential Election Odds. Hopefully there will be some more state by state options available from the sportsbooks, but if not opening an account at PredictIt is easy and can be very profitable.