No. 9 Florida vs. South Carolina College Football Betting Pick 10/19/19


The No. 9 Florida Gators (-6.5) are set to pay a visit to the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. The opening kickoff for this key SEC game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.

No. 9 Florida vs. South Carolina Betting Odds 10/19/2019

Florida is giving up 6.5 points in this SEC game. The Gators are currently getting -270 moneyline odds while the Gamecocks are +210. This SEC tilt should offer multiple in-game betting scenarios. The over/under is set at 48 points.

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The early action has leaned to both the Gators and the under. The line originally opened at 5.5 and the game’s total was initially 49.

The Gators are 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Gamecocks are 3-3 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play. The profitable Gators have gained 3.2 units so far in 2019 and are 2-2-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.

The Gamecocks have lost 4.7 units this season. They’re 4-2 ATS and also have an O/U record of 2-4.

When these two programs faced each other last year, Florida got the victory 35-31.

The Gators fell to LSU 42-28 in a game where their defense allowed the Tigers to rush for 218 yards on 24 attempts, including three rush TDs. Offensively, Kyle Trask completed 23 passes for 310 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Lamical Perine (65 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and the signal-caller Trask (21 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack. Van Jefferson (eight receptions, 73 yards, two TDs) and Kyle Pitts (five catches, 108 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

South Carolina is coming off of a 20-17 win over Georgia. As a group, the team collectively completed 21-of-32 passes for 155 yards and one touchdown. Ryan Hilinski went 15-for-20 for 116 yards and one touchdown while Dakereon Joyner was six-of-12 for 39 yards. Rico Dowdle (79 yards on 21 rush attempts) handled the running game while Bryan Edwards (six receptions, 78 yards, one TD) and Shi Smith (five catches, 14 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Florida has run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions while South Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 48.3. The Gators have rushed for 141 yards/game (including 136 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Gamecocks are logging 194 rushing yards per contest (135 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Gators have tallied 291 yards/game through the air overall (303 per game versus conference opposition) and have 17 passing scores so far. The Gamecocks have put up 216 pass yards per outing (218.5 against SEC competition) and have seven total pass TDs.

Florida seems to hold the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 111 yards and pass for 199 yards per game. South Carolina has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game and 259 to opposing teams in the air. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.68 to opposing QBs, while the Gamecocks have given up a 5.41 ANY/A.

Trask is up to 957 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 74-of-105 attempts with eight passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Trask’s got an 8.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.57 over the last two outings.

We expect the Florida offense to mix it up in this one. Lamical Perine (262 rushing yards, three rush TDs, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Freddie Swain (173 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Kyle Pitts (297 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played key roles lately.

In the other locker room, Ryan Hilinski has produced 888 yards, six TDs and three INTs. Hilinski’s ANY/A sits at 5.93 for the season and 5.22 across his last two outings.

We’re expecting the Gamecocks to dictate tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Bryan Edwards (389 receiving yards, four TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but Rico Dowdle (347 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Tavien Feaster (210 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant factors in the South Carolina offense.

Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Bedding Prediction

SU Winner – Florida, ATS Winner – Florida, O/U – Under


Betting Notes

The Gators offense has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Gamecocks have put up three such plays.

Both defenses have allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Florida defense has given up six pass plays of 30+ yards while South Carolina has given up eight such plays.

The Florida offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Carolina has created 14 such runs.

The Gators defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Gamecocks have given up 11 such runs.

The Florida D has 26 sacks on the year while South Carolina has just 15.

Florida has averaged 4.2 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 3.8 over its last two.

South Carolina has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.

Over its last three matchups, South Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Florida’s previous game was set at 55. The over cashed in the team’s 42-28 loss to LSU.

The Over/Under for South Carolina’s previous outing was 52. The under cashed in that 20-17 win over Georgia.

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