No. 7 Oregon vs. USC College Football Betting Pick 11/2/19


The No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-4.5) are set to face off against their in-conference nemesis USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to broadcast the action.

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No. 7 Oregon at USC Betting Odds 11/2/2019

Oregon is giving up 4.5 points in this Pac-12 game. The Ducks are currently being given -200 moneyline odds while the Trojans are +170. There could be some good in-game betting opportunities in this contest, and the over/under (O/U) has been placed at 59 points.

The game’s total has shifted up after opening at 58. The original line (4.5) has remained consistent.

The Ducks are 7-1 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Trojans are 5-3 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play. Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Trojans are up 1.4 units and the Ducks have gained 2.0 units.

The Ducks are coming off a 37-35 win over Washington State last week. The passing game was sharp as Justin Herbert completed 21 passes for 222 yards. CJ Verdell (257 yards on 23 rush attempts, three TDs) and Cyrus Habibi-Likio (48 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack while Juwan Johnson (four receptions, 64 yards) and Verdell (four catches, 56 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

The USC Trojans are coming off of a 35-31 win over Colorado. The defense allowed the Buffaloes to pass for 324 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 196 yards. Laviska Shenault Jr. shredded the defense, recording 172 yards on nine catches for Colorado. For USC, Kedon Slovis completed 30-of-44 passes for 406 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Kenan Christon (76 yards on 14 rush attempts) mounted the running attack while Tyler Vaughns (eight receptions, 104 yards, one TD) and Michael Pittman Jr. (seven catches, 156 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Oregon’s run the ball on 52.2 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.3 percent across possessions in conference play. USC has an overall rush percentage of 48.1 percent, and has carried the ball 45.9 percent of the time when playing Pac-12 opponents. The Ducks have produced 190 rush yards per game (including 193 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 146 rushing yards per contest (131 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then the Ducks may own an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 5.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.2 YPC to opponents. The Trojans have rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.8 to opponents.

The Ducks have tallied 276 yards per game in the air overall (250 per game versus conference opposition) and have 23 passing TDs so far. The Trojans have recorded 296 pass yards per outing (312.2 in the Pac-12) and have 18 total pass scores.

Defensively, Oregon should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 101 rush yards and 207 pass yards per game. USC has allowed 190.1 rushing yards per game and 239.3 to opponents in the air. The Ducks are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.51 to opposing QBs, while the Trojans have allowed a 6.27 ANY/A.

Herbert has amassed 1,824 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 155-of-224 attempts with 17 passing touchdowns and only one interception. Herbert has a sparkling 8.59 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.82 over the last two games.

We’re expecting the Ducks to control the clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. The tagteam of CJ Verdell (705 rush yards, five rush TDs, 106 receiving yards) and Cyrus Habibi-Likio (172 rush yards, five rush TDs, 17 receiving yards) have delivered in the offense for Oregon.

Kedon Slovis has accounted for 1,393 yards, 11 TDs and five INTs for USC. His ANY/A sits at 8.05 for the season and 8.97 over his past two games.

The Trojans should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Michael Pittman Jr. (686 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Kenan Christon (76 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Tyler Vaughns (565 receiving yards and four TDs) have seen a lot of looks recently.

These two Pac-12 foes did not get a chance to face each other a year ago.

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans Free Pick

SU Winner – Oregon, ATS Winner – Oregon, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The Oregon D has 23 sacks on the year while USC has 22.

The USC offense has lost five fumbles this season while the Oregon offense has lost four.

The Ducks offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Trojans have accounted for eight such plays.

The Oregon defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while USC has given up three such plays.

The Oregon offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while USC has created 11 such runs.

The Ducks defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Trojans have given up 11 such runs.

As a team, Oregon has produced 5.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.4 over its last two.

USC has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its past two.

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