No. 4 Alabama at Mississippi State College Football Betting Pick 11/16/19

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The Bulldogs (-20.5) are set to welcome the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. This SEC showdown is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and you can witness the action live on ESPN.

No. 4 Alabama at Mississippi State Betting Odds 11/16/2019

Alabama is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 20.5 points to Mississippi State. The over/under has been set at 62.5 points, and if one school catches a lucky break early, it’ll likely generate a decent betting opportunity in-game.

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The line has recently shifted up from 19 to where it stands now (20.5). The game’s total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 62.5.

The Crimson Tide are 8-1 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-5 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play. The Crimson Tide are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.2 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-4.

The disappointing Bulldogs have lost 4.5 units this season. The team is 3-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-3.

These two squads met last year with the final result being a 24-0 win for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are on the rebound after a 46-41 defeat to LSU last week. Tua Tagovailoa completed just 21-of-40 passes for 418 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Najee Harris (146 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) mounted the ground attack. Devonta Smith (seven receptions, 213 yards, two TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (five catches, 71 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Mississippi State just earned a 54-24 win over Arkansas back in Week 10. Tommy Stevens completed 12-of-18 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Kylin Hill (234 rushing yards on 21 attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Stevens (74 yards on 15 carries) led the running game as Deddrick Thomas (two receptions, 59 yards) and Austin Williams (two catches, 18 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Alabama has run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has an overall rush percentage of 62.4 percent. The Crimson Tide have rushed for 163 yards per game (including 138 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are totaling 217 rush yards per contest (214 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Crimson Tide could have an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has allowed only 15 sacks while their D-line registered 45 sacks. The Bulldogs O-line has given up 25 sacks and their defense has logged only 39 sacks.

The Tide have logged a ridiculous 347 yards/contest in the air overall (356 per game against conference opposition) and have 36 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have produced 191 pass yards per outing (192.3 against SEC foes) and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Alabama seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents run for an average of 132 yards and pass for 204 yards per game. Mississippi State has allowed 161.9 yards per game on the ground and 227.3 to opposing teams in the air. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.60 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 7.53 ANY/A.

Tagovailoa likely has the advantage over Shrader in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 12.40for the year and 10.83 over the past two outings. Shrader’s ANY/A is 5.84 for the year and 6.06 over his past two games.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Tip

SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes

The Alabama defense has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this season. Mississippi State has registered just 13 sacks.

The Mississippi State offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Alabama has let three get away.

The Crimson Tide offense has recorded 13 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up two such plays.

The Alabama defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Mississippi State has given up five such plays.

The Alabama offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Mississippi State has created 17 such runs.

Both teams have allowed 12 rushing play of 20 yards or more. The Crimson Tide have given up 37 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bulldogs have given up 48 such plays.

The O/U for Mississippi State’s last outing was 58.5. The over cashed in that 54-24 victory over Arkansas.

Over its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

In its last three contests, Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Alabama’s last game was 65. The over cashed in the team’s 46-41 defeat to LSU.

Alabama has averaged 4.4 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.6 over its last two.

Mississippi State has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 7.4 over its last two.

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