No. 21 SMU vs. Navy College Football Betting Pick 11/23/19


The No. 21 SMU Mustangs (+4) are heading northeast to battle their conference rival Navy Midshipmen at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. This pivotal afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will showcase the action.

No. 21 SMU vs. Navy Betting Odds 11/23/2019

The line for this AAC matchup is sitting at 4 points in favor of Navy. The Mustangs are currently being given +155 moneyline odds while the Midshipmen are -175. This AAC tilt should present multiple live betting opportunities. The over/under has been set at 67.5 points.

Sharp bettors have been favoring the Midshipmen. The line originally opened at -3 and the O/U was placed initially at 68.

The Mustangs are 9-1 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against conference opponents. The Midshipmen are 7-2 SU overall and are also 5-1 SU in conference play. Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Mustangs have gained 8.5 units while the Midshipmen are up 3.4 units.

The Mustangs just got a 59-51 win over East Carolina on November 9. Shane Buechele completed 33 passes on 46 attempts for 414 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (157 yards on 20 rush attempts, three TDs) led the running attack while James Proche (14 receptions, 167 yards, two TDs) and Kylen Granson (seven catches, 138 yards, three TDs) manned the receiving duties in the win.

Navy just fell 52-20 to Notre Dame. As a group, the Midshipmen collectively completed four-of-13 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown. Malcolm Perry went three-for-seven for 36 yards while Perry Olsen was one-of-five for 43 yards and one touchdown. Perry (117 rushing yards on 25 attempts) and Perry Olsen (17 yards on 10 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Mychal Cooper (three receptions, 73 yards, one TD) and CJ Williams (one catch, six yards) led the Navy pass-catchers in the loss.

SMU has run the ball on 52.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Navy has a rush percentage of 87.7 percent. The Mustangs have rushed for 194 yards/game (including 179 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 30 scores on the ground this year. The Midshipmen are totaling 349 rush yards per contest (370 in conference) and have 37 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then the Midshipmen ought to have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.9 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.2 YPC to opponents. The Mustangs have rushed for 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Mustangs have tallied 328 yards per contest through the air overall (349 per game versus conference opposition) and have 28 passing TDs so far. The Midshipmen have recorded 97 pass yards per game (87.7 in the AAC) and have seven total pass scores.

Defensively, SMU has allowed 124 rush yards and 302 pass yards per game. Navy has been a bit better than that, allowing 108.9 yards per game on the ground and 212.8 to opponents in the air. The Midshipmen are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.08 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs have given up a 6.77 ANY/A.

Buechele has already amassed 2,739 passing yards this season, and has completed 215-of-334 attempts with 25 passing touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Buechele has an 8.13 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.21 over the last two games.

Malcolm Perry has put up 593 yards, four TDs and three INTs for Navy. His ANY/A stands at 8.34 for the year and 12.94 over his last two outings.

When these two schools met a year ago, SMU got the victory over Navy, 31-30.

SMU Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen Betting Prediction

SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

The Over/Under for SMU’s last game was set at 73.5. The over cashed in the team’s 59-51 triumph over East Carolina.

SMU has averaged 5.3 yards per carry across its past three outings and 5.2 over its last two.

Navy has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.0 over its last two.

The Navy offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while SMU has let four get away.

Over its last three matchups, SMU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Navy’s previous outing going into it was 55.5. The over cashed in the 52-20 defeat to Notre Dame.

Over its last three contests, Navy is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Mustangs offense has tallied 14 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Midshipmen have accounted for six such plays.

The SMU defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Navy has given up nine such plays.

The SMU offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Navy has created 31 such runs.

The Mustangs defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Midshipmen have given up nine such runs.

The SMU defense has 42 sacks on the year while Navy has just 24.

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