A couple of offenses with noticeably different play-calling schemes, the Spartans (+16.5) are gearing up to host the No. 21 Boise State Broncos (-16.5) in San Jose State. CBS Sports Network is scheduled to have the TV rights and kickoff for this vital conference showdown is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. These two MWC foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2018.
No. 21 Boise State vs. San Jose State Betting Predictions 11/2/2019
San Jose State is a big underdog in this MWC matchup and is currently receiving 16.5 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to spend $1,200 to win $100 back on the Broncos (-1200). The Spartans are getting +710 moneyline odds. If one program gets out in front early it’ll create a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
The line opened at 16. The game’s over/under hasn’t moved since it opened at 58.
The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.1 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.
The Spartans have gained 0.9 units this season. The team is 4-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-5.
The Broncos have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Spartans are 4-4 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.
The Broncos fell to BYU 28-25 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Cougars to eat up the clock by running for 121 yards on 35 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Matt Bushman had a good day for the Cougars in that one with 101 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Chase Cord completed 18-of-30 passes for just 185 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. George Holani (97 rushing yards on 20 attempts) led the ground attack. Octavius Evans (five receptions, 77 yards, one TD) and John Bates (three catches, 39 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The San Jose State Spartans just earned a 34-29 win over Army West Point. The defense allowed the Black Knights to rush for 326 yards on 70 attempts, including three rush TDs. Christian Anderson had a productive showing in the loss, posting 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts for Army West Point. For San Jose State, Josh Love completed 20-of-31 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. DeJon Packer (63 yards on nine rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Tre Walker (six receptions, 94 yards) and Isaiah Hamilton (three catches, 88 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.
Boise State has run the ball on 51.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Jose State has an overall rush percentage of 39.7 percent. The Broncos have rushed for 168 yards/game (including 160 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Spartans are totaling 85 rush yards per game (55 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Broncos should have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents. The Spartans have ran for 3.3 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.6 to opponents.
The Broncos offensive scheme has logged 302 yards per game through the air overall (300 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Spartans have recorded 311 pass yards per contest (328.8 in the MWC) and have 17 total pass scores.
Boise State has let opponents rush for an average of 124 yards and pass for 205 yards per game. The San Jose State D has given up 206.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 236.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Spartans are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.97 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have allowed a 5.81 ANY/A.
Cord has amassed 305 pass yards on the year, and has connected on 26-of-47 attempts with five passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Cord has a 6.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.06 over the last two outings.
The Broncos will probably try to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with John Hightower (314 yards, three TDs), George Holani (399 rush yards, 50 receiving yards) and Robert Mahone (315 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Boise State offensive scheme.
Josh Love has completed 155-of-257 passes for 2,137 yards, 13 TDs and two INTs for San Jose State. His ANY/A sits at 8.53 for the season and 8.56 across his past two outings.
The Spartans also like to keep their running backs involved. In addition to Isaiah Hamilton (342 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Tre Walker (541 receiving yards and one receiving TD) and Kairee Robinson (33 rush yards, 29 receiving yards, one TD) have seen a lot of looks recently.
Boise State Broncos vs. San Jose State Spartans Free Pick
SU Winner – Broncos, ATS Winner – Broncos, O/U – Over
Boise State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
San Jose State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.1 over its past two.
San Jose State has lost four fumbles this season while Boise State has lost five.
The Broncos offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Spartans have put up 10 such plays.
The Boise State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while San Jose State has given up five such plays.
The Boise State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while San Jose State has created five such runs.
The Broncos defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Spartans have given up 10 such runs.
The Boise State defense has 21 sacks on the year while San Jose State has just 12.