No. 2 LSU at Mississippi State College Football Betting Pick 10/19/19

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The No. 2 LSU Tigers (-19) are set to take on their conference counterpart Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. This important afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on CBS.

No. 2 LSU at Mississippi State Betting Odds 10/19/2019

LSU is giving up 19 points in this SEC game. The Tigers are currently getting -1600 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are +850. The over/under is set at 61.5 points. If one side can find paydirt early, it will likely generate a reasonable live betting opportunity.

The total has not changed after being initially posted at 61.5. Having said that, the line opened at 18 so the early action has swayed to the Tigers.

The Tigers are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 3-3 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play. The Tigers have gained 2.0 units so far and are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-1.

The disappointing Bulldogs have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and four of its games have gone over the total.

The Tigers are hoping to stay unbeaten following a 42-28 win over Florida last week. Joe Burrow completed 21-of-24 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (134 yards on 13 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack. Justin Jefferson (10 receptions, 123 yards, one TD) and Ja’Marr Chase (seven catches, 127 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, Tennessee took care of this Mississippi State crew by a score of 20-10. As a group, the Bulldogs collectively completed 11-of-21 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Tommy Stevens went six-for-11 for 67 yards and two interceptions while Garrett Shrader was five-of-10 for 79 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Garrett Shrader (62 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Kylin Hill (13 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game while Osirus Mitchell (five receptions, 58 yards) and Stephen Guidry (two catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

LSU’s run the ball on 49.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has a rush percentage of 62 percent. The Tigers have produced 166 rush yards per game (including 200 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are logging 192 rushing yards per contest (160 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Tigers should have the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded only 35 sacks while their D-line registered 34 sacks. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 39 times.

The Tigers have tallied an astonishing 396 yards/game through the air overall (356 per game against conference opposition) and have 25 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have put up 184 pass yards per game (180.7 against SEC foes) and have eight total pass scores.

LSU has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 92 yards and throw for 224 yards per game. Mississippi State has allowed 163.3 yards per game on the ground and 230.7 to opposing teams in the air. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.24 to opposing QBs, while the Bulldogs have given up a 6.87 ANY/A.

Burrow has already amassed 1,813 passing yards this year. He’s completed 121-of-148 attempts with 20 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Burrow’s got a sparkling 13.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.61 over the last two outings.

Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ja’Marr Chase have collectively accounted for 677 total yards and eight touchdowns over the last two outings.

Garrett Shrader has put up 381 yards, one TD and two INTs for Mississippi State. His ANY/A sits at an ultra-pedestrian 4.34 for the season and 7.18 over his last two games.

Similar to the Tigers, expect a balanced attack offensively from Mississippi State this Saturday. Garrett Shrader (285 rushing yards, one rush TD, zero receiving yards on the year), Osirus Mitchell (302 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Kylin Hill (564 rush yards, five rush TDs) have combined for 321 total yards and two touchdowns the last two games.

These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 19-3 win for LSU.

LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Prediction

SU Winner – LSU, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Trends

Mississippi State has lost six fumbles this season while LSU has let two get away.

The LSU defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Mississippi State has produced 10 sacks.

LSU has averaged 5.8 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 6.2 over its last two.

Mississippi State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.2 over its past two.

In its last three contests, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for LSU’s previous game was 55. The over cashed in the team’s 42-28 victory over Florida.

Over its last three games, LSU is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Mississippi State’s previous match was set at 53. The under cashed in the 20-10 defeat to Tennessee.

Mississippi State has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 15-point triumph over Kentucky on September 21st accounting for the only win over that stretch.

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