No. 16 Michigan vs. Illinois College Football Betting Pick 10/12/19


In a display of two schools that like to feature their running games, Coach Lovie Smith and the Illinois Fighting Illini are getting 20 points when they play host to the No. 16 Michigan Wolverines to Memorial Stadium. This Big 10 matchup is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and ABC will broadcast the action.

No. 16 Michigan at Illinois Betting Odds 10/12/2019

Michigan is favored by 20 points in this Big 10 matchup. The Wolverines are currently being given -1800 moneyline odds while the Fighting Illini are +900. The over/under is set at 51 points, and if one squad catches a lucky break in the early stages, it would likely generate a nice in-game betting opportunity.

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With the line opening at 19.5 and the over/under set originally at 51.5, oddsmakers have shifted this game’s outlook a hair.

The Wolverines are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Fighting Illini are 2-3 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play. The Wolverines are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.0 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2.

The Fighting Illini have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.0 units. The team is 2-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-3.

These two Big 10 foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

Illinois enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Michigan has lost zero in a row. The Wolverines just got a 10-3 win over Iowa last week. Shea Patterson completed only 14 passes on 26 attempts for 147 yards and one interception. Zach Charbonnet (42 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Donovan Peoples-Jones (four receptions, 26 yards) and Nico Collins (three catches, 63 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Minnesota knocked off this Illinois crew by a score of 40-17. As a group, the team collectively completed 20-of-39 passes for 157 yards and one interception. Matt Robinson went 15-for-29 for 125 yards while Brandon Peters was five-of-10 for 32 yards and one interception. Reggie Corbin (68 rushing yards on 14 attempts) led the running game as Trevon Sidney (five receptions, 50 yards) and Josh Imatorbhebhe (four catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Each team has a nearly identical (54-46) run-pass ratio on the season. The Wolverines have rushed for 128 yards per game (including 100 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Fighting Illini are putting up 163 rush yards per contest (156 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.

The Wolverines have logged 239 yards/contest through the air overall (247 per game versus conference opposition) and have seven passing scores so far. The Fighting Illini have recorded 191 pass yards per game (117.5 against Big 10 competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Michigan appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 135 rush yards and 154 pass yards per game. Illinois has allowed 183.2 rushing yards per game and 240.4 to opposing teams in the air. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.34 to opponents, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 6.92 ANY/A.

Patterson has amassed 776 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 64-of-116 attempts with five passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Patterson has a 5.61 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.44 over the last two outings.

Matt Robinson has produced 156 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs for Illinois. His ANY/A sits at a horrendous 3.80 for the year and 3.27 over his last two outings.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Pick

SU Winner – Michigan, ATS Winner – Michigan, O/U – Over


Betting Notes

The O/U for Michigan’s last game was 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 10-3 triumph over Iowa.

As a team, Michigan has produced 3.2 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.

Illinois has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its past two.

Illinois has lost three fumbles this season while Michigan has lost seven.

Over its last three contests, Michigan is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Illinois’ last matchup going into it was 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 40-17 loss to Minnesota.

In its last three matchups, Illinois is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Wolverines offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Fighting Illini have accounted for one such play.

The Michigan defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Illinois has given up four such plays.

The Michigan offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Illinois has created eight such runs.

The Wolverines defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Fighting Illini have given up 11 such runs.

The Illinois defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Michigan has registered 14 sacks.


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