No. 11 Baylor vs. Kansas College Football Betting Pick 11/30/19

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The No. 11 Baylor Bears (-14) will clash with their conference nemesis Kansas Jayhawks at Kivisto Field at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. ESPN has the TV rights and this afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.

No. 11 Baylor at Kansas Betting Odds 11/30/2019

Baylor is favored by 14 points in this Big 12 game. The Bears are currently receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Jayhawks are +500. There should be multiple good in-game betting opportunities in this showdown, and the over/under (O/U) has been set at 53.5 points.

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The game’s total has been driven downward after opening at 54. The original line of 14 has stayed consistent.

The Bears are 10-1 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against conference opponents. The Jayhawks are 3-8 SU overall and are also 1-7 SU in conference play. Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Jayhawks are up 4.8 units and the Bears have recorded 7.1 units.

The Bears are coming off a resounding 24-10 victory over Texas last week. Charlie Brewer completed 16 passes for 221 yards and one touchdown. Brewer (75 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) also led the running attack and was complemented by John Lovett (51 yards on nine carries, one TD). Denzel Mims (seven receptions, 125 yards, one TD) and Chris Platt (four catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas most-recently fell 41-31 to Iowa State. Carter Stanley completed 23-of-44 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns. Pooka Williams Jr. (154 yards on 19 rush attempts) led the running game while Andrew Parchment (eight receptions, 86 yards) and Stephon Robinson Jr. (five catches, 75 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Baylor has run the ball on 54.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas has a rush percentage of 49.3 percent. The Bears have rushed for 179 yards/game (including 151 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 27 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Jayhawks are averaging 144 rushing yards per contest (123 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Bears may hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has generated 4.9 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Jayhawks have registered 4.6 yards per carry and allowed 4.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Bears have tallied 260 yards/game through the air overall (267 per game versus conference opposition) and have 20 passing scores so far. The Jayhawks have put up 242 pass yards per outing (259.1 in the Big 12) and have 24 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Baylor seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 142 yards and pass for 217 yards per game. Kansas has allowed 222.2 rushing yards per game and 250.1 to opponents in the air. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.25 to opposing QBs, while the Jayhawks have given up a 7.86 ANY/A.

Brewer is up to 2,559 pass yards this season, and has connected on 193-of-288 attempts with 17 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Brewer has an 8.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.05 over the last two games.

Look for Brewer to attack all areas of the Kansas secondary. Denzel Mims (248 receiving yards and nine touchdowns), Charlie Brewer (0 yards) and Chris Platt (248 yards, one TD) have all been heavily involved recently.

In the other huddle, Carter Stanley has produced 2,343 yards, 22 TDs and seven INTs. Stanley’s ANY/A sits at 7.13 for the year and 7.01 across his past two games.

Pooka Williams Jr., Stephon Robinson Jr. and Andrew Parchment have combined for 512 total yards and three touchdowns as a trio over the last two games.

When these two teams met a year ago, Baylor earned the win 26-7.

Baylor Bears vs. Kansas Jayhawks Betting Pick

SU Winner – Kansas, ATS Winner – Kansas, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Bears offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jayhawks have accounted for seven such plays.

The Baylor defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kansas has given up 10 such plays.

The Baylor offense has created 23 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas has created 20 such runs.

The Bears defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jayhawks have given up 18 such runs.

The Baylor defense has sacked opposing QBs 38 times this year. Kansas has produced just 16 sacks.

As a team, Baylor has produced 4.0 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.6 over its last two.

Kansas has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.6 over its last two.

In its last three games, Kansas is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Baylor’s previous game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 victory over Texas.

Over its last three contests, Baylor is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Kansas’ last match was set at 58.5. The over cashed in the 41-31 loss to Iowa State.

Kansas has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a three-point win over Texas Tech on October 26th representing the only victory over that stretch.