NHL Spot Plays 4/13/2019

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-04-13

nhl picksAnother four-game schedule in the NHL for Saturday, where again we’re seeing the wiseguys take a few anti-public stands that re having a decent effect on the betting lines. Even though it’s the playoffs, you’re not going to get too many bettors coming out of the woodwork for the National Hockey League, which is still a minor sport from a betting perspective.

Carolina at Washington: The Capitals are holding steady for the most part at -155, which is where the line opened even though Washington is getting more than two-thirds of the early wagers in this one. Again, the big move is in the total, which dropped from 6-under (-120) to 5.5-over (-120) even though you can still find 6-under (-123) at 5Dimes, which is where I played the under 6 – even though the empty-net goal in the final 40 seconds of the first game handed me a loss. More than three-quarters of the early wagers have been on the over, so the move is a fairly significant.

Dallas at Nashville: The Predators opened -165 and the line is still holding there with Nashville getting more than two-thirds of the early and the total has moved from 5-over (-130) to 5-over (-120) with two-thirds of the plays coming in on the over. It’s easy to see why people are playing the over, since if each team scores twice the worst you can do is push, but one I’ll stay clear of.

Toronto at Boston: Once again we’re seeing money come in on the Maple Leafs, as the line dropped from Boston -155 to Bruins -140 even though two-thirds of the wagers have come in on the Bruins. We’ve also seen a slight move in the total, which moved from 6-flat to 6-under (-115) with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. Would likely play Toronto in this one if I didn’t have the series wager on the Leafs, but will just stay away and see what shakes out.

Colorado at Calgary: The Flames opened -220 and the line has climbed a little bit to Calgary -230 with the Flames getting 58% of the wagers in the game. The total has shifted slightly from 6-under (-120) to 6-flat with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. Playoff teams who were blanked last time out have come back with a 78-64 record, while totals have gone 61-43-38. Away underdogs who were blanked last game are just 24-32, however, with totals going 27-19-10, so the trends, at least, lean to the over in this one.

END OF APRIL 13 PICKS

The dreaded empty net goal did us in last night, as we’re now 1-1 in the playoffs with two series wagers also going. Four games on the schedule tonight and a few of them are showing bigger bettors taking a stand one way or the other. A bit of a tough slate, so a couple of opinions, but no plays.

Columbus at Tampa Bay: The Lightning opened -250 and have been bet up to -260 with more than 85% of the early wagers coming in on Tampa. The total has dipped slightly from 6.5-over (-125) to 6.5-over (-120) with pretty good two-way action on the total. Laying -260 is a recipe for disaster in the long run, although it’s hard to see this one going any other way. The early lines (first five, first 10 minutes) aren’t out, but may be a better wager for those expecting the Lightning to come out strong after falling apart last game. Too touch to play this one.

Pittsburgh at NY Islanders: The Penguins are -130 with a total of 5.5-under (-120), with Pittsburgh opening at -120 and getting nearly three-quarters of the early wagers. More interesting is the total which has held at 5.5-under (-120) despite two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. In the last four years, away favorites off an away loss are 9-3 in the NHL playoffs with the Pens responsible for several of those wins. The total is a little more interesting, especially after the teams played a 4-3 game, in that you would expect, so this is a game I’d lean to the under and may end up with a token wager to watch while working on the NBA.

St. Louis at Winnipeg: The Blues are getting respect once again here, as the Jets opened -125 and are now -120 after getting two-thirds of the early wagers. Winnipeg was 11-6 at home after a loss this season but did start out 6-0, so the Jets were nothing to speak of down the stretch, as we discussed a little bit before Game 1. Home favorites are 26-20 after losing last game at home in the playoffs over the last four years.

Vegas at San Jose: The Sharks opened -130 and are still there after getting close to two-thirds of the wagers, while the total made a pretty big move, climbing from 6-over (-130) to 6.5-under (-115) even though nearly two-thirds of the wagers have been on the under. Would give the other lean to the over here, which is always a possibility with Martin Jones in net, and much like the Penguins game, may make a small wager since I’ll have the game on as background noise while doing some other work.

END OF APRIL 12 PICKS

Three games in the NHL Playoffs tonight, with a couple of interesting line moves having taken place.

Toronto at Boston: We’re seeing a bit of action on the Maple Leafs in this one, as the Bruins opened -150 and the line is down to -135 at 5Dimes even though the Bruins are getting two-thirds of the early wagers. Those who like Toronto should look to Bovada, where the line is Boston -140 and both sportsbooks have the same prices on the series as they’re offering tonight. The total is 6-flat.

A little tempted to take the Leafs in this one, but also have the series bet on Toronto, so not real eager to jump into this game. Three of the four games had 6 goals or more during the regular season, although with two of them landing on 6, you would have gone 1-1-2 betting either the over or the under. There were at least two power play goals scored in the three games that saw six or more goals and one scored in the lone game that saw five goals scored, so how closely this one’s called could affect the total.

Carolina at Washington: The Hurricanes are getting a little respect among bettors, as this one opened Caps -150 and is now Washington -145 with the Caps getting more than three-quarters of the early wagers and the total holding at 5.5-over (-115) with more than 70% of the wagers on the over. Three of the four games played between the two were under the total this year and again, powerplay goals had everything to do with it, as there was one goal scored with the man advantage in the three games that landed under the number and four scored in the lone game that went over. If the refs “let them play” think this one could land under the number, so will take a shot on the under 5.5 at -105.

Colorado at Calgary: The Flames are -185 which is pretty much in line with the opening number and Calgary is getting close to 75% of the wagers in this one, so the line is right about where it should be, possibly a few cents on the low side. The Flames won all three games this year, with two of them going over the total. The teams were a combined 0 for 7 on the powerplay in the game that landed under the total.

END OF APRIL 11 PICKS

We finished the NHL regular season with a profit of 5.38 units and a 57-48-2 record, good for an ROI of roughly 5%, so no complaints there and not bad for typically selecting one game on day on days we had plays. But that’s in the past, now it’s time to see what we can do for the Stanley Cup playoffs, which begin with five games tonight.

Series Plays

San Jose -105 over Las Vegas: Sometimes you have to make plays you don’t really like and this is definitely one of them for me, as I definitely have a soft spot for the Knights, but think the Sharks are the better team, even if neither team really showed a whole lot down the stretch. The Knights get the nod in goaltending, but San Jose can match or better Vegas in the other categories and have home ice advantage. They also have Martin Jones in goal, which is a bit of concern but he has typically played better in the playoffs than during the regular season in his career so far.

Toronto +120 vs. Boston: Yes, I know the Bruins own the Maple Leafs and Boston is built for the playoffs and all that, but can’t pass up a team with the firepower of the Leafs as an underdog, so will grab the +120 in this spot. The Bruins are tough at home, but Andersen was 18-12 away from home and Toronto is a better road team than Boston, which is important as the Leafs are going to have to win at least one on the road. Neither team really put forth a whole lot of effort down the stretch, with playoff spots essentially locked up, but think Babcock will get the job done.

Regular Play

St. Louis at Winnipeg: The Jets are -120 at 5Dimes and the total is 5.5-under (-115) in this one in which I’ll grab the better team down the stretch in St. Louis at even money. Binnington likely didn’t play enough to get himself into the Calder mix, especially with the start to the season Vancouver’s Petersson had, but in the games he did play, the Blues were 24-6 and a solid 10-4 on the road, where the Jets are especially tough. Hellebuyck was 19-14 at home, while Brossoit was 6-2, but won’t see any time unless Hellebuyck struggles early, so St. Louis should be able to garner a split in these two games, so will begin with a .75-unit play on the road team.

END OF APRIL 10 PICKS

 

 

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