NFL Prop Betting Picks Super Bowl 54


It’s time for the mother of all prop betting features so spread your legs and prepare to get im-prop-nated. That’s right, you’re sick of the analysis, annoyed by the player commentary and just want this game to happen, right? I’m done with the waiting and am pumped for this game, some cold beers, a little jerky jerk and all dressed chips baby. Bring it on!
There are over 600 prop bets available this week and I’ve scoured the internet, the Vegas prop sheets and xvideos to bring you my favorite bets.

– Before we get started, here are some tips for betting props:
– Read the verbiage clearly and take a photo of the bet beforehand.
– Don’t bet it if you don’t understand it. Dummy.
– Generally speaking, bet the overs early and the unders late
– Sometimes, paying some juice is okay.
– Spend the extra time to shop around between books/sites. You may find an arbitrage (middling) opportunity
– You don’t have to bet all your winnings from the year on this game
– Have fun, bet the stupid props SMALL

We’ve been in the green and profitable to this point in the season and we’re gonna keep it going this weekend. LETS.DO.THIS.

*** Follow me on Instagram @sportsbetting100to10k for more last minute plays and live betting opportunities.

The second half will be the highest scoring half

– This bet is all about game script and how you feel this game will play out. My feel is that the Chiefs will start out slow due to the fresh legs of the SF pass rush and although SF may have some success early on, they’re also surprised by the pass rush of KC led by Chris Jones and Frank Clark. I still think there will be some points and we know what KC has done this year in the second quarter but I still feel it may be a reserved first half with the 49ers holding a small lead. I expect the pass rush to fatigue slightly and both teams to make adjustments (the 49ers don’t really adjust on Defense, though) to counter the pass rush, whether that’s playing up tempo, adding tight ends or scheming around it. The glory hole of all glory holes should open up in the second half and there shall be points! We’ve seen what KC can do when trailing and don’t forget the 49ers offense is right up there in the top of all categories as well. The game should provide some ample live betting opportunities and go ahead and throw a few bucks on the ‘SF first half win, KC win game’ bet at +650 if you’re with me.

Patrick Mahomes -20.5 rushing yards vs Jimmy Garoppolo

– There has been a lot of steam on the Mahomes rushing prop, now in the low 30’s and seemingly continued to climb. I’m going to attack this a different way by going up against Jimmy G’s rush yards. Mahomes prop is at 32.5 rushing yards and Garoppolo’s is 4.5. That’s a difference of 28 when looking at their market expectation. Of course, there’s a chance Jimmy’s is increased if the game script calls on more passing, which may lead to a scramble run here and there. There’s also the likelihood of SF rushing in unison and keeping Mahomes in the pocket, where he can’t run and his passer rating is below that of when he’s out of the pocket. But just because they should try to keep him in the pocket doesn’t mean they can. I found this prop at -170 so you’ll have to pay some juice but a healthy Mahomes ran for over 50+ his last two games, even just 25yds in this game should win this bet.

Patrick Mahomes more rushing yards than Darwin Thompson

– This is another heavily juiced bet and may be a fun one to parlay with another sport – Djokovic to win the Aussie Open? Darwin Thompson is the backup RB and didn’t play versus Houston and had one receiving target and one rush for 7yds vs Tennessee. At the end of the season, he was averaging around 4-5 carries and his highest output of yards was 44 versus Oakland on Dec 1st. Unless there’s an injury, Damien Williams should get the majority of snaps, including 3rd down passing spots. Again, Mahomes is expected to get 32.5 yards rushing while Thompson’s line is 5.5. Unlike the above bet vs Jimmy G, there is no spread here. He just needs to gain more yards, hence the heavy juice at -260. Sign me up for that OJ and I don’t want to hear the name Darwin ever again.

There will NOT be an onside kick

– There were only 56 onside kick attempts in 2019 with a meager 7 recoveries. San Francisco did not attempt a single one and the Chiefs tried unsuccessfully just once. I know it’s the Super Bowl and anything goes but I bet this at -150 and that line seems way too short for me based on how likely this is to occur. The game is pegged as a pickem and usually the onside kicks don’t come out unless one team is trailing multiple scores. If SF is down and making a comeback, I’d guess that Kyle Shanahan would put trust in his defense and Andy Reid’s poor late game time management then risk it with an onside kick that he’s well aware has a sub 10% chance of success.

Raheem Mostert to score a touchdown

– This may seem like a square look with Mostert coming off of a 4 TD performance but the -130 line was too tempting for me here. He picked up a TD in all 6 of his final regular season games and even with Tevin Coleman healthy (if) he should see the lion’s share of carries. Watch out for Jeff Wilson Jr who sneaks in some red zone carries (throw a few bucks on him to score as well) but Mostert and the running game should be the focus in the red zone, a la Bill Belichick. The 49ers are expected to score roughly 27pts and led the league in rushing TD’s per game at 1.6 so I expect two rushing TD’s on Sunday with one coming from Col. Mostert.

Kansas City 2nd Half Team Total OVER 13.5 pts

– We know what KC can do in the 2nd quarter in terms of point production but this number is too light for me. Andy Reid and the Chiefs are experienced in the playoffs and should be able to make any necessary half time adjustments. If they are playing from behind, this should work out great for this bet as the SF pass rush may fatigue and the offense should open up. Even with the lead, they should keep their foot on the pedal knowing that SF can turn it on. Getting this bet under 2 touchdowns seems like a steal, even at -145 juice. You can find the same bet for the 49ers with less juice if you feel so inclined.

Damien Williams longest reception OVER 11.5 yards

– I love me some Damien Williams and am going back for more this week. I like his expected usage, in and around the 3-4 catch zone and probably think he’ll be targeted 5+ times. Andy Reid will work on some short pass schemes and screens to try and minimize the SF pass rush. There will be a heavy focus from the safeties on Hill/Hardman and the linebackers will have to deal with Kelce, so there may be some opportunity for Williams and the other receivers to find some space in the 10-15yd region. The 49ers front seven are extremely fast but Williams is quick and agile and should be schemed some good looks. He’s eclipsed this mark in 8 out of the 13 games he’s played in this year but remember he shared duties much of the year and his snaps were limited in many of those games. In his last four games, where he has become the bell cow RB for this team, he’s hit this over every game (17/17/13/14)

(CROSS SPORT) Totals shots in the Carolina/Vancouver hockey game more than the total yardage combined from KC’s touchdowns

– I had originally lined this bet up in the queue to bet on the touchdown yardage but then I reread the prop as it’s just KC’s yardage so I’m rolling with the shots. This isn’t a fun bet by any means but you can roughly count on around 60 shots per NHL game, give or take. Carolina is above average in shots and the Canucks are below average giving up the 25th most shots per game. The Canucks will be playing their second of back to back games early in the day in the East Coast on Super Bowl Sunday so I’d expect them to be lethargic. But who cares, this isn’t really about the shots, it will come down to how SF limits the big plays. In the Conference Championships, KC had 118 yards from their TD’s but against Houston when they scored 51 points they only had 47 yards from those TD’s. I think KC will score in this game and they should get at least 3-4 TD’s but I’d expect Shanahan to play that safety deep for protection and limit the monster scoring play. If that’s the case, then it’s a handful of 5-15yd touchdown passes which will cash this ticket.

Demi Lovato’s microphone will NOT be black

– This is the type of bet where information is king. The length of Demi’s anthem has already been taken offline at a few shops as rehearsals had it going well under so I missed the boat on that one. I don’t have inside info here as this is more of a gut feel and an underdog ( pays almost 2-1) play. Demi’s a big LA girl so I’m thinking we’ll see a yellow or purple mic for Kobe or worst case a silver glittered up mic. Its science folks.

Patrick Mahomes’s Girlfriend will post OVER 4.5 times on Instagram on February 2nd

– Of course this is a stupid bet. I had originally bet the under on this but I’ve come full circle and am on the over as the wording signifies all day February 2nd – not just during the Super Bowl and that’s what got me to change my mind. Instagram stories don’t count as these need to be separate ‘posts’ but I still think we can get to 5, even with all the stories she’ll do. She’s gallivanting around Miami right now with Mahome’s lil bro and taking lots of photos. I counted 3 photos from the Conference finals and expect an increase in output this week. Since it’s the full day and not just during the game, I think there will be some cheesy morning pic of the two of them, one when she arrives at the stadium, one action photo of his first TD pass in the Super Bowl, at least one during the half time show and then one on the field if KC wins or one after the game talking about how great he is if they lose. Worst case, give her a follow so you can track her exploits and watch her glute workouts in her lulu pants. Cash it!

Jennifer Lopez and Shakira to both TWERK during the halftime show – YES.

– You’ve got to give it to JLO, she’s one of the originators of the big ass. We owe all these big asses to her and I know I’m thankful. She’s now 50yrs old this year and her body looks amazing and she wants to show the world. She just finished the movie ‘Hustlers’ where she’s a stripper – full of ass pics so we know she’s still in good shape. Shakira is 42, also in decent shape and really only known for swinging those hips and looking hot. This will be a tough one to grade as they’ll both need to technically ‘twerk’ not just dance sexy but it’s a gamble I’m willing to take at close to 2-1. With both of them being over 40 and lots to prove, we know they’ll look hot, we know they’ll dance it up hard, they’ll do a song or two in Spanish and somewhere near the end they’ll remix Shakira’s ‘Hips don’t lie’ with JLO’s ‘Booty’ and the poppin shall begin.

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