It’s the best NFL weekend of the year and I’m pumped to see some high powered offenses go at it after a pretty low scoring wild card weekend. The 4 highest scoring teams (by points per game) in the league (KC/LAR/NO/NE) are all rested off of byes and are at home. It’s time for some action, baby.
We had another solid performance going 5W-3L and a cancelled bet last week pushing us to 28W-15L over the last 6 weeks – a cool 65%.
Again, the lines for these games on the sides/totals are tight so tread carefully with your bets and I’ll be focusing more on player match ups again versus totals.
We’re coming in hot with another 9 picks but don’t feel the need to bet this many props. I have bet these personally but I bet them much smaller than my normal plays. Take a look below and see how any of these match up with your handicap and then decide.
If you want more action then hit me up with a follow in Instagram at @sportsbetting100to10k as I’ll be posting last minute plays there.
7 more games left in the year, let’s make the most of it. Good luck and thanks for reading!
Indianapolis at Kansas City – Saturday 4:35pm (EST)
We’re starting out this weekend with likely the most exciting game. Well, at least the one with the highest total and I’m agreeing with the public here that there will be some points – by both teams. I’m not betting the over, but taking somewhat of a square play and counting on rookie QQ Patrick Mahomes. Yes, the other rookie QB’s have struggled but I’m not worried. I’ve seen different lines ranging up to 350yds so I’m pretty happy finding a 314.5 yard prop. We know they’ll have trouble running and they’ve had weeks to game plan for the Colts secondary. I’m tempted by the Tyreek Hill over but the Colts did do a decent job on Hopkins last week so I’m thinking he’ll spread it around. I have no idea to whom, as the KC weapons could be the same person…. Damien Williams / Demarcus Robinson / Darrel Williams / Demetrius Harris – too many D’s for me to comprehend. I’ll just take Mahomes.
I’ll spare you all the data about how bad the Chiefs defense is as you’ve heard it all week and I do think the Colts will put up some points, although, I’m not sure they can keep up. So give me my trusty friend Chester Rogers again to rack up some yards. He’s come through for me a few times this year, including last week so I think he’ll sneakily get some yards while KC is worrying about their big names. The betting market presumes the Colts put up 3 touchdowns and you know they’ll be looking for Ebron every time they’re in the red zone so I’m grabbing his touchdown prop at plus money. This game could go a million ways but at least we’re cheering for some fun. 33-26 KC.
BETS — Patrick Mahomes over 314.5 passing yards at -120 via Bet365
Chester Rogers over 29.5 receiving yards at -114 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
Eric Ebron to score a touchdown at +110 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
Betting Lean – If you’re feeling like these aren’t enough and you want more, then hit this up! Longest TD in the game to be over 45.5yds at -120. There will be Hilton, Mack, Hill and Kelce on the field – give it a shot with a small play.
Dallas at Los Angeles Rams – Saturday 8:15pm (EST)
It’s Saturday night in LA and noooooobody cares about this game. Why would you when you can chase around LA trying to find out if Matthew McConaughey puts two scoops of kale in his smoothies or just one. I like the Rams to put up some points here and throw the ball around a bit against this secondary and coaching staff. I found a Brandon Cooks prop at over 4.5 catches where all the other books have 5.5 so I’ll jump on that. Even with Gurley, the Rams should have some a handful of unique passing plays lined up and Cooks should be a beneficiary.
The Cowboys will pound Zeke and probably have some success but since I think they’ll be playing from behind in the second half, I’m leaving him alone and adding Dak’s rushing yards. I added this one late last week and their offense seemed to be more dangerous when he was a running threat so I think they’ll try that a bit more this week to help avoid Donald and the Rams pass rush.
BETS – Brandin Cooks over 4.5 catches at -125 via Bet365
Dak Prescott over 16.5 rushing yards at -120 via 5dimes
BETTING LEANS – I lost last weekend with the Zeke receiving yards over but I’m considering it again here as I think the game script of them playing from behind may lead to more throwing opportunities, especially if there is some 4th quarter garbage time.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England – Sunday 1:05pm (EST)
Do we need to say more than Bill Belichick vs Anthony Lynn? Is that game, set, match? Not quite, but I love the Pats to have a solid start to this game with a thorough game plan during the first half. The Patriots average almost 20 first half points at home versus a Chargers team averaging 13.4 on the road. Most books have this line at -3 while the full game line is -4 (that says a lot) but Heritage allows you to buy it down. No doubt, the Pats lack the weapons they’ve had in the past but given the bye, the home field and Belichick’s ability to devise a solid game plan, I think they’ll find a way to neutralize the Chargers strengths. One way that can be done is to avoid the pass rush and tire them out playing high tempo football with runs and short passes, and I feel James White will be the recipient of all this attention both out of the backfield and perhaps even out of the slot.
The Patriots take a ton of heat for their defense but they have two elite cornerbacks listed in pro football focus’s top 10 CB’s. At the top of that list is Stephon Gilmore who will likely be matched up against Mike Williams on the outside. Williams is a big dude but Gilmore shuts guys down and with all the other options Rivers has on offense, big Mike should have a quiet afternoon.
BETS – New England 1st Half -2.5 pts at -125 via Heritage/Betonline (bought ½ pt)
Mike Williams under 43.5 receiving yards at -120 via 5Dimes
James White over 4.5 catches at -115 via 5dimes
Philadelphia at New Orleans – Sunday 4:40pm (EST)
Full disclosure here…I’m on the Saints and on the over 50.5pts so I’m a bit biased. That said, I had planned on providing some explanation and the reasoning here for my plays but after seeing this line, I’m only going to have one play and it’s an easy one. Michael Thomas over. Heritage is showing him at almost the same yardage as Alshon Jeffery. I know Jeffery has gelled with Foles nicely (we’ve bet him here multiple times) but Brees to Michael Thomas is on another level. Thomas is going to rip up this secondary so I’m not bothering with any other prop bets (for now) and am going to ride this bet to glory and riches.
BETS – Michael Thomas over 80.5 receiving yards at -115 via Heritage/Betonline.ag
Betting Lean – I have some more research to do but I may look into the Eagles RB’s under, Jeffery under if Lattimore covers him and possibly a Brees/Kamara over.