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NFL Futures — Whose Odds Changed After the Draft?

I don’t know if the picks made in the NFL Draft itself have a huge impact on each respective team’s chances to win the Super Bowl or the conference, but it might have an effect on division races, since there are only three other teams to beat. So obviously there is some interest here in checking out the “before” and “after” at BetAnySports as far as the NFL futures numbers on various teams that experienced a shift that was somewhat significant.

Of course, I allow for the proposition that there may not be a huge amount of volume moving these numbers, but some of them deserve to be mentioned.

Notably, the Los Angeles Chargers went from +3500 to win the Super Bowl to +5000. And they went from +800 to win the AFC West to +975. I can only imagine that some bettors may have expected that they would make a bold move to improve their draft position, perhaps trading with Detroit and taking Tua Tagovailoa. Instead, they draft Justin Herbert of Oregon to be their rookie QB, meaning that in all likelihood he will sit behind Tyrod Taylor for a while, just as was the intention in Cleveland with Baker Mayfield (until an injury to Taylor scuttled that plan). Oddly, the price on exceeding the Bolts’ posted regular season win total of 7.5 went from -120 to -130.

The Las Vegas Raiders, who may or may not be able to play in Las Vegas this season, went from a +4000 Super Bowl shot to +5000. Their AFC West odds were virtually unchanged. But there was movement on their win total. They were -125 on the night before the draft to go over 8.5 wins, but post-draft they are now -120 to go UNDER that win total.

The way I see it, they got a lot of help at the receiver position, with Henry Ruggs, along with Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) and Swiss army knife Lynn Bowden. And they got an insurance policy for Derek Carr in the person of Marcus Mariota.

But who knows; maybe there was disappointment that they didn’t get rid of Carr. And remember another factor here; the Kansas City Chiefs, a rival in the division to both the Raiders and Chargers, have added to their embarrassment of riches on offense by bringing in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire of LSU. So maybe that sends both Jon Gruden’s and Anthony Lynn’s teams backward. The Chiefs hold fast as the Super Bowl favorite at BetAnySports (+600).

A number of teams near the bottom of the barrel experienced big shifts, although we’re not sure how significant it all is because of the big prices. For example, the Detroit Lions went from 125-1 to 80-1. This was after NOT trading their #3 overall pick and taking star corner Jeffrey Okudah, and then addressing a big need on Round 2 with DeAndre Swift.

A couple of other things to note: in the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys were +120 and +127, respectively, before the draft. And as we come out of the draft the Cowboys are the -103 favorites in the division, with the Eagles at +128. Clearly Dallas was incredibly happy that they were able to draft CeeDee Lamb, who they not only considered the best wide receiver on the board but also one of the best players in the country. And Philadelphia raised eyebrows with their selections of wide receiver Jalen Reagor of TCU (with Justin Jefferson of LSU remaining out there) and then QB Jalen Hurts on the second round.

The gap tightened in the NFC North, as the Green Bay Packers, who were +128 to win the division pre-draft, took a “quarterback of the future” with their first-round selection (Jordan Love), and failed to add any dynamic playmakers for Aaron Rodgers. They are now +160, while the Minnesota Vikings, who traded Stefon Diggs, add the aforementioned Jefferson and plugged some holes on defense, with first-rounder Jeff Gladney (TCU) and others, and are now priced at +175.

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