It’s been a disappointing football season for us this season, as we enter the Super Bowl with just a .500 record, going 24-24-2 on our plays, with all of them 8-8 or 8-8-1. Not quite what we expected, but you’ll have those types of years. If those are your worst years, you’re doing better than the majority of bettors.
The biggest thing for bettors to remember here is that even though it’s the Super Bowl, it’s just another game on the Sunday schedule. Don’t go overboard. There are 13 college basketball games on the schedule Sunday and the chances are you will find better value there than you will on the Super Bowl. At tops, it should be the same size as your regular wagers.
The total on the game opened at 51.5 and is currently up to 54.5 with close to 80% of the wagers on the over. That’s to be expected given the high-scoring ways of Kansas City and the fact the 49ers scored 37 points in the NFC Championship game.
While the 49ers allowed 20 points against Green Bay, their defense has been solid the past two games. San Francisco held a decent Minnesota team to 147 total yards. The Packers gained 358 yards, although a lot of those came when the game was already over, which was pretty much the entire second half.
The 49ers haven’t done a whole lot offensively the past two weeks. But they didn’t need to. They’ve gained 191 passing yards in two games combined, while rushing for 471. That’s roughly 50 fewer total yards per game than they averaged during the season.
Kansas City has put up impressive numbers the past two weeks, but Houston isn’t a good defensive team and the Titans aren’t quite as good as the 49ers. The Chiefs were slowed down when they played strong defensive teams and that could be the case here.
While Kansas City has scored 31 or more points their last three games, they scored 26 or fewer their three previous games.
On defense, the Chiefs aren’t bad and are a little bit better than average. They don’t have to be great, but do need to make a few plays and they are capable of doing just that.
Kansas City was a better defensive team away from home, where they allowed 2.3 fewer points per game. The 49ers allowed .2 more points on the road, but scores 2.7 fewer, as well.
It’s not a big play by any stretch of the imagination, but will take the under 54.5 in this one.