They’re still cleaning up confetti from the NRG Stadium turf, but lines are out for Super Bowl LII. The odds show the New England Patriots as favorites to repeat, which is a surprise to absolutely nobody. It’s never too early to start looking at some of these prices. Things will change a lot with the NFL Draft and free agency, but that also means that the value may be gone on some of these numbers by then.
Either way, we won’t have meaningful football again until late August when college football starts and those that prefer the NFL won’t have anything until September. In the meantime, you can dissect these Super Bowl LII odds and see if there’s anything you want to invest in.
Before we look at the odds, it’s important to think about this from a bankroll management. Obviously, you need the resources to tie up your funds until February 4, 2018. The big game will be at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, so there could be a team in the Big Game with a big advantage. But, before you look into that, you have to consider whether or not a 12-month investment is feasible with your bankroll. If it isn’t, take a look at these odds and then move forward. If it is, let’s see if we can find some values, courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook:
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers
There are two goals here. The first is to get a better price than you would get closer to the season. The second is to pick a team capable of going on a nice playoff run that allows you to hedge. Picking the winner of Super Bowl LII would be awesome, but the entire goal in betting futures is to guarantee some sort of profit.
There’s definitely some guesswork involved on how teams will do in the NFL Draft and how they will do in free agency. The teams able to land the biggest upgrades will see some movement in their futures odds. Hopefully we can isolate a few teams that will give our readers some value.
Tennessee Titans (+4700) – The Titans sit behind the Colts and Texans in terms of the odds, but they honestly feel like the most likely AFC South Division winner. Chance Warmack should be retained before he hits the open market and the Titans don’t have a whole lot of significant free agents outside of that. With an improving quarterback in place in Marcus Mariota and a very strong ground game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, the offense should be in great shape.
Tennessee has a ton of cap space to go out and get some upgrades on defense and at the wide receiver position. The Titans pick fifth from last year’s trade that allowed the Rams to move up for Jared Goff. Tennessee will also pick 18th. That should mean two starters for next year’s team. Mariota only threw four picks after Week 5 and had 22 touchdowns. Mike Mularkey isn’t a great head coach, but the Titans bought in and played a very physical brand of football with one of the league’s stronger teams in the trenches.
It isn’t a stretch to say that Tennessee will get a home playoff game from winning the AFC South. If that’s the case, you’ll have plenty of hedging options while holding a +4700 ticket. With the NFL Draft and money to spend, the Titans could be one of next year’s most improved teams on paper.
Cincinnati Bengals (+5500) – Years of coordinator losses finally took their toll on the Cincinnati Bengals, but injuries played a huge role as well. The Bengals were 6-9-1 in a not-so-nice season with a +10 point differential. At the very least, that implies an 8-8 season from a Pythagorean Win-Loss standpoint. The offense was awful but the defense held the opposition under 20 points per game and ranked eighth out of 32 teams in that department. Andy Dalton was forced to play six games without star WR AJ Green. The offensive line had a couple of injuries over the course of the season. Tight end Tyler Eifert was never fully healthy.
The Steelers are well up the board, even with some questions about whether or not Ben Roethlisberger will return. The Bengals have a top-10 pick to play with in the NFL Draft. They also have a decent amount of cap space and will shed some additional payroll with some aging guys that are on the downsides of their careers. Baltimore went 8-8 and had one of the league’s best defenses, but that team still has a long way to go offensively. The Bengals are not some ruined team because of one down season.
They haven’t won a playoff game in forever, but simply getting into the playoffs at +5500 opens up some possibilities. Again, it’s about making an investment that yields a high potential for profit. This one looks like a pretty good value play and the number should go down as Cincinnati fills some needs over the spring and summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3800) – The Buccaneers made a significant investment in Jameis Winston’s future by firing Lovie Smith prior to last season. The front office felt that Lovie and the staff in place wasn’t the best equipped to handle the former first overall pick. The Buccaneers had some bumps in Dirk Koetter’s first season, but finished on the right side of .500 and showed significant progress throughout the season on both sides of the ball.
The defense has some big-time playmakers with guys like Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. Gerald McCoy battled injuries. The defense has some great pieces in place. The offense has a major mismatch in Mike Evans and should be able to add on with the 19th pick in the NFL Draft and a little bit of cap room. Right now, the Falcons are a little overpriced off of their NFC Championship run and Carolina is overpriced based on reputation at +2800.
This is a young, up-and-coming roster and there’s a lot to like about the foundation in Tampa Bay. Add in some solid free agents and a decent draft pick and they should be able to challenge Atlanta for the top spot in the NFC South.
Watch for updated prices throughout the offseason to see if there are some buy points on teams as we get closer to kickoff in September.