We improved to 8-10-2 on this plays for the season, which is still dismal, but a lot better than the 4-9-1 we were at earlier. There’s obviously just two games this week, so we’ll use this spot to look at the game between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are favored by 5.5 and the total on the game is 60.
The public was obviously more impressed with Green Bay’s victory over Dallas last week than they were Atlanta’s dismantling of the Seattle Seahawks, as nearly two-thirds of the wagers are coming in on the Packers, although the line has moved from Falcons -4.5 to Atlanta -5, which isn’t all that significant as five is a somewhat number, as not many games end with that margin.
The Packers are firing on all cylinders, having scored at 30 points in their last six games and doing so against several quality stop units, such as Minnesota, Dallas and Seattle. You would expect them to be able to get their fair share here against a Falcon defense that doesn’t strike fear into opponents, although history has shown teams with at least six straight games of 30 points are just 8-10 ATS their next game and 9-9 in totals.
Green Bay has won and covered their last four games and playoff underdogs in that situation are 9-9 against the number, so no real edge there.
The Falcons aren’t quite the same public team that the Packers are, but have quietly put together a solid season and have exceeded 30 points in each of their last five games. While Atlanta’s defense is frequently maligned, they’re really no worse than Green Bay’s.
The total is definitely on the high side, but if there are two teams who should have a number this high posted it would be these two. The only other game to come close to a total this high was New Orleans and Detroit in 2012 and the final was 45-28 and the other six games with a total of 55 or higher in playoff history have gone 4-2 to the over.
From the side standpoint, I have to take Atlanta here, as they have been the better team during the season and aren’t getting quite as much respect as they deserve against the Packers.
Will also side with the over, as this one should feature a few big plays and a couple of quick scores.