In the first of a two-game series between the Miami Marlins (44-68) and the Boston Red Sox (50-62) at Marlins Park, Justin Nicolino (1-1, 4.09 ERA) and Steven Wright (5-4, 4.12 ERA) take the mound. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 11 and will air on FSFL and NESN.
In his last start, Nicolino pitched 4.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out two and walking one in a 7-1 loss to the Dodgers. Christian Yelich (.275, 37 Rs, 6 HRs, 29 RBIs, 14 SBs) played well again Sunday, going 3 for 5 with one RBI. The Red Sox were victorious the last time Wright pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 8.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out nine and walking two in a 2-1 victory over the Yankees. David Ortiz (.249, 47 Rs, 23 HRs, 65 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Red Sox, going 2 for 4 Sunday with one run.
The odds are Red Sox -115 for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently 7.5. The Marlins have a 5-10 record SU against the AL. The Marlins are a dangerous hitting team with an MLB-best 259 extra base hits. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 76 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Miami pitchers. The Marlins have given up an average of 6.3 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.1 runs per game. The Marlins are fifth in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 8.4 per game.
Against NL opponents, the Red Sox are 8-4 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.5 runs per game, above their 4.2 season average. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Boston batters, who rank third in the AL with 6.7 strikeouts per game. Boston's pitching staff tends to perform well when they play competition from the NL. They've allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL, lower than their season average of 4.8.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 2-0 against the Marlins. This game will feature Wright (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have a 35-54 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Red Sox will be the right-hander Nicolino. They sport a 38-44 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - Bos
Miami has won 36% (21-37) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Boston has won 47% (25-28) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox managed to give up six walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are heading in with a 2-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 31-19. The Red Sox have a 40-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Miami is at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 400 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 472.
Ranking 27th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 265 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 332.
The Marlins are 27-33 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 37-35 when they hit at least one homer.