We’re 7-8 with this one, as well, and will look to get back to .500 with the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are favored by 7.5 after being 8 a little earlier in the week, while the total has climbed 2.5 points to 49.5.
The Saints are getting bet hard at the window, with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on New Orleans, and nearly every tout I’ve seen is on the Saints, as well. That right there is reason enough to give the Vikings a good look in this one.
The Vikings didn’t look very impressive at times and lost a couple of games you would have thought they had a decent chance of winning, with the home game against Green Bay the best example. The Vikings didn’t put forth any effort in their finale against Chicago, so you have to take that result with a grain of salt. For the season, New Orleans averaged 3.2 more points than Minnesota, while the Vikings allowed 2,4 fewer points than New Orleans.
The Vikings are one of the few NFL teams that have a 50-50 balance in rushing and passing, while the Saints are more of the traditional throw seven times for every five rushing attempts. The Vikings are better running the ball and are going to need to have the rushing game going on the road if they want to keep this one a game. New Orleans has some solid numbers against the run, but part of that is due to teams being behind and forced to throw the football.
Drew Brees is going to be Drew Brees and the Vikes have got to do a better job defending the pass than they did at times during the year, as they were a bit inconsistent. New Orleans was 6-2 at home this season, while the Vikings were 4-4 on the road.
It seems like the Saints should roll over Minnesota here and a lot of people are acting like it’s a forgone conclusion, but playoff underdogs of 7 or more points have gone 29-23 ATS (55.6%) over the years, so will go against the grain and take a stab on the Vikings plus the points in this one.
END OF WILDCARD PLAYOFF ROUND PICKS
We’re 7-7 with our NFL Betting System Pick of the Week and this week we’ll take a look at the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Chargers, where the Vikings opened as 3-point favorites and the line is now 1.5 even though the Vikes are getting close to 70% of the wagers.
The Vikings have been a tale of two different teams this season, going 6-0 at home and 3-4 on the road, typically coming up short by a play or two away from home against some decent teams. Minnesota’s four road losses have come against Seattle, Green Bay, Chicago and Kansas City. The Chargers aren’t quite in that category, but they’re also better than their 5-8 record indicates. The Chargers have a scoring margin of +2.9 points, having not lost a single game by more than a touchdown all season.
The Vikings like to run the ball and the Chargers are pretty solid against the run, so it’s most likely going to fall to Cousins to beat Los Angeles through the air, something he hasn’t been able to do throughout his career. He’s a strong quarterback when the running game is working, but isn’t always at his best when asked to carry the load.
The Vikings are still solid on defense, allowing 2.7 fewer points than their opponents average, but have had a few bad outings against teams who can throw the ball, which is something the Chargers can do pretty well, averaging 278.5 yards through the air.
Turnovers have been a big part of the Chargers’ struggles this season, as they’re a -10 on the season and that’s part of the reason why they’re 5-8 and out of the playoffs despite posing some solid stats. If they don’t lose the turnover battle in this one, have to like the Chargers’ chances in this one.
Away favorites who have dropped their last three games to the spread are just 61-74-5 (45.2%) over the years and home underdogs off a 40-point or more effort have gone 17-13 ATS (56.7%), so going to take a shot on the Chargers +1.5 in this spot.
END OF WEEK 15 PICKS
We’re sitting at 6-7 with our NFL Betting System Picks and this week we’ll take a look at the game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are favored by 1 after opening as slight underdogs and seeing Seattle get close to two-thirds of the wagers in the game.
Seattle won 30-29 the first game these two teams played earlier this season in Seattle and are coming off a big win against the Minnesota Vikings. At 7-5 the Rams need to go on a winning streak if they hope to make the playoffs and this is simply a game they can’t afford to lose. Los Angeles hasn’t been that great at home this season and that was reflected in the opening line a little bit.
The Rams are just 2-3 at home this season both straight-up and against the spread and for all the talk about Seattle being a dominant home team, the Seahawks are undefeated on the road this season.
On paper, the Rams should be a bit of a tough matchup for the Seahawks, as Los Angeles has a decent stop unit against the run, but Seattle has scored 30 or more points in each of the last three meetings, while the Rams have put a fair number of points on the board themselves and won two of those three games.
This game is the classic example of the Seahawks having a better offense and the Rams being a bit better on defense, but it’s also a case of Seattle having a possible letdown, as they now hold the tie-breaker against the Vikings. The Vikings play a physical game and that’s taken a bit of a toll on teams the following week. Since 2014, teams are 39-50-1 (43.8%) the week after playing the Vikings, while teams are 49-34-7 (59%) the week after playing Arizona.
Will take a shot on a Rams team that needs this one much more than Seattle.
END OF WEEK 14 PICKS
Way off the mark here last week, as we dropped to an unsightly 5-7 on the season. This week, we’ll take a look at the game between the Washington Redskins and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers opened as 9-point favorites and the line is now Carolina -10 after the home team received a little more than 60% of the wagers in the game.
The Redskins are bad, there’s no real way of getting around that, as Washington hasn’t scored more than 20 points since the first two weeks of the season and Washington has been held to single digits in scoring, so it’s a bit surprising to see that they really don’t run the ball all that bad, gaining 4.1 yards per rush against teams who allow 4.2 yards per average. It’s the passing game that leaves quite a bit to be desired, as Washington is just gaining 167 yards per game.
Washington’s offense woes have masked how good their defense is. While not elite, the Redskins’ defense has been pretty solid, allowing 24.5 points per game, while being on the field more than 33 minutes a game. With as poor as the offense has been, you’d expect Washington be allowing a few more points.
Carolina’s season has fallen apart and after a promising start, the Panthers are 5-6 after dropping four of their last five, including their last three games. Part of the Panthers’ problem is offense, where they’re slightly under what their opponents allow. Running the ball hasn’t been a problem for Carolina, who averages 5.0 yards per carry, but Carolina isn’t very good at stopping the run, as they also allow 5.0 yards per carry.
Bettors must be expecting the Panthers to get things turned around in this one, but teams who have lost three straight are 20-30-1 ATS when favored by at least a touchdown and 4-8 when favored by double-digits.
Washington’s ability to run the ball may pay off a little bit against Carolina’s defense, so will have to take the Redskins +10 in this one.
END WEEK 13 PICKS
Dropped to 5-6 with our NFL System Pick of the Week in extremely ugly fashion a week ago, as the Falcons pummeled the Panthers, who looked completely lost on the field. This week, we’ll take a look at the Monday night game with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens opened even and are now favored by 3 with close to 80% of the wagers in the game. A number of books also have you laying -120 with Baltimore, so the Ravens are definitely a public play this week.
It’s hard to blame those who like Baltimore, as the Ravens have been on roll, putting up 90 points in their last two games and 157 over their last four. The Ravens have won their last two games 49-13 and 41-7.
The Ravens are getting the job done through the air and one the ground, averaging more than 200 yards with both. Baltimore rushes 36 times a game for 203 yards, but are going to get a test from the Los Angeles rushing defense, which allows just 3.3 yards per rush and 2.8 yards per attempt at home. Granted, some of Baltimore rushing yards come when Jackson scrambles out of the pocket and runs the ball, but Baltimore may have to throw a little more than they want to in this one.
The Ravens are a decent defensive team, but not great. They allow 19.6 points per game, but due to Baltimore rushing game, the Raven defense is on the field 26 minutes a game, so it’s a little bit easier to post nice stats when you’re out there 46% of a game instead of 50%.
The Rams don’t necessarily run the ball all that well, but the Ravens aren’t the greatest team at stopping the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry to foes who average 4.1 yards a rush.
The Rams haven’t gotten great play from Jared Goff and that has hurt them this season. Even though Los Angeles is 6-4, better things were expected from them this season and this would be the week to turn things around. They do have a few situational edges in this one, primarily due to the play of Baltimore.
Away favorites who won their last two games by 25 or more points are just 8-15-1 ATS, while all teams who won their last two games by 30 or more points are just 9-13-1, so will take a shot on the Rams +3, who I believe are in a decent spot.
END WEEK 12 PICKS
For our NFL System Pick of the Week, where we dropped to 5-5 last week, we’ll take a look at the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are favored by 4 and the total on the game is 49.
The Falcons come into this one off an impressive victory at New Orleans, as they shut down the Saints’ offense, holding them to just nine points. Atlanta still isn’t that great of a team and their win last week appears to be more of an anomaly than it is anything else. As they say, “on any given day…”
For the season, the Falcons are getting outscored by 7.6 points, but they have shown a tendency to play a little better on the road than they do at home. They score more points away from home than in front of the home fans, while their defense is a bit worse, allowing just over 30 points per game.
Atlanta’s run defense has performed well on the season, allowing just 3.8 yards per attempt, but will be put to the test by a Carolina team that is averaging 5.1 yards per rush against teams allowing 4.1 yards per rush. The Panthers run the ball 26 times per game and throw the ball 36 times on average.
The Falcons don’t run the ball very well, which is a bit of a drawback against Carolina, who can’t stop the run. The Panthers allow more than 130 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry, but the Falcons just run the ball 20 times and throw the ball more than 40 times per game.
The Panthers are better than average against the pass and they’ll see plenty of them against Matt Ryan and company. Carolina allows 6.2 yards per pass against teams who average 7.1, so their pass defense is at least efficient.
After dropping their first two games of the season, both of which were at home, Carolina has played better, going 5-2 and winning both of their games in Carolina. They are coming off a tough loss to Green Bay when they were stopped at the goal line.
The Falcons are in a bit of a tough situational spot, as away underdogs who won their previous game as double-digit away underdogs are just 10-20-1 against the spread their next game and 6-25 straight-up.
Going to go ahead and take a shot on the Panthers -4 in this one.
END OF WEEK 11 PICKS
We moved to 5-4 with our NFL Betting System Pick of the Week last week and now will take a look at the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, where the Ravens are now favored by 10.5 with a total of 44.5.
Obviously there’s going to be a slight letdown on the part of the Ravens after knocking off the Patriots last Sunday night, and teams who defeated the Pats as home underdogs are just 13-18-1 ATS in their next game.
Baltimore is 6-2 on the season and already defeated the Bengals once, although it wasn’t necessarily easy, as the Ravens came away with a 23-17 victory as 10.5-point favorites at home. Baltimore was coming off a win at Pittsburgh, so they can be excused a little bit for looking past Cincinnati some in that one. The Bengals may have gotten Baltimore’s attention a little bit in that one, although the Ravens have Houston, the Rams and San Francisco on tap, so they may be guilty of looking past Cincinnati at little bit in this one, as well.
Despite being winless on the season, the Bengals aren’t playing all that bad defensively, allowing 26.2 points per game to teams who average 24.8 points. The offense hasn’t been doing its part, averaging 15.5 points per game, although their opponents have just allowed an average of 21.1, go while Cincinnati is well below average offensively, they’re not completely inept compared to the level of their competition.
Ryan Finley will make his debut for the Bengals at quarterback after Andy Dalton was benched for his effort against the Rams and you can’t blame the Bengals. Dalton made a few mistakes in that one that veteran quarterbacks shouldn’t be making, so Cincinnati may as well see what the kids can do.
The Bengals did have a bye week to get Finley more reps and get the team ready to play. Rested large home underdogs have been decent wagers in the past, as home underdogs of 7 or more points are 24-9-1 when playing with a week off.
The Ravens are getting 63% of the wagers in this one and I’m surprised it’s not a little more, but will take a shot on Cincinnati +10.5 in this one.
END WEEK 10 PICKS
Strange week last week, sweeping the colleges and then turning in an 0-3 day in the NFL. The Bengals game was the one that hurt the most, as Andy Dalton had the team in field goal range twice and lost yardage on third down to force them to punt. You can see that happening to a young QB, but Dalton’s been in the league a long time and knows better. But on to Sunday and we’ll start out with our NFL Betting System Pick of the Week, where we’re 4-4 on the season.
This week, we’ll look at the game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers, where Green Bay is favored by 4 and the total is 48.5.
Bettors obviously weren’t too impressed with the Chargers knocking off the Chicago Bears last week, as the Packers opened as 4-point favorites and the line has stayed there despite more than three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the Packers. Still, the win just moved Los Angeles to 3-5 on the season, but if there’s been a hard-luck team in the NFL so far this season, it’s been the Chargers. All five of Los Angeles’ defeats have been by seven points or less, with several of them by three points, including the debacle against the Titans two weeks ago.
The Chargers have continued to play hard and are in a decent spot here, as home underdogs who just won on the road as away underdogs have gone 159-117-9 (57.6%) over the years and are on a 9-2 run with all three plays this season coming through.
It won’t be easy against a Green Bay team that has won four straight and has the offense going, as the Packers have allowed 24 points in three of those games on their winning streak and 22 in the other, yet they’re coming away with the victories.
The Packers pulled out one last week against Kansas City and have the Panthers at home next week, so not the greatest of spots here for Green Bay, as they might have a tough time getting up for a Chargers team that has been a disappointment, at least as far as wins and losses go.
Will go ahead and take the Chargers to bounce back in front of the home fans in this one, as after defeating the Colts on opening day, Los Angeles has dropped their last three home games. They may not get the win, but believe they can stay with the spread here.
END OF WEEK 9 PICKS
For our NFL System Pick of the Week, where we’re 4-3 on the year, we’ll take a look at our two winless teams and come up with a play based on one of the old systems that involves taking winless teams as large underdogs. On the surface the premise makes sense, as teams that haven’t won are a game are going to get under-valued and since no team wants to lose each and every week, you know you’re going to get a decent effort from the team, although they may not have the talent to do anything about it. That’s why they’re winless.
Double digit winless underdogs in Week 7 or later are 29-22-2 (56.9%) against the spread and if we move to Week 8 and use the same criteria, the winning percentage jumps to 22-11-2 (66.7%) so almost 10 percentage points higher.
We have two teams that fit the criteria this week, Cincinnati and Miami, but that’s pretty much where the similarities stop. In their game with the Los Angeles Rams, the Bengals opened as 9.5-point underdogs. The betting public thought that number was too low and the Rams received 75% of the wagers in the game causing the line to climb to 11.5. That’s what you expect to see out of a winless team.
The Miami Dolphins opened as 16.5-point underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the public has been on the Fish pretty solidly, as Miami has received three-quarters of the wagers in the game, knocking the line down to 14. That isn’t what you expect to see and a couple of decent quarters out of Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t change the fact that this isn’t a very good football team. The Dolphins have played a little better lately, covering their last two games, although one of those two games was against Washington and they let one get away against the Bills.
The Bengals have had their share of close games, losing four of their seven games by 6 points or less and like the fact that they’re being given little chance by bettors this week over in England. The location of the game should prove to be a bit of a distraction to both teams, so no real edge there, although I’d be inclined it’s better for Cincinnati if the Rams aren’t 100% than it is for Los Angeles if the Bengals aren’t entirely focused.
Going to take the Bengals +11.5 in this one.
END OF WEEK 8 PICKS
We’re 3-3 with our NFL System Play of the Week and this week we’ll take a look at the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks opened as 4-point favorites and the line has dropped to Seattle -3 with Baltimore getting 60% of the wagers. The total opened at 50.5 and have seen two-thirds of the wagers come in on the over and the total has still went ahead and dropped to 49.
The Ravens are 4-2 on the season, but just 1-4-1 against the spread, having failed to cover in either of their last two games even though they won them both. Excluding their opening-week thumping of the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore has been pretty consistent on offense, having scored between 23 and 28 points. Defensively, the Ravens have had a couple of bad games, with the game against the Kansas City Chiefs understandable, but they also allowed 40 points to the Cleveland Browns in their worst defensive effort of the season.
The Seahawks have made a habit of winning close games this season, with four of their five wins by four points or less. Seattle’s defense isn’t what it has been in the past, but the offense has been able to overcome the poor defense effort and score enough points to get the victory, defeating the Rams 30-29 two weeks ago and coming away with a 32-28 victory over the Cleveland Browns a week ago.
Seattle has scored at least 21 points in each of their games, which really isn’t bad for a team that’s not exactly known for its high-powered offense and they’ve played a few decent teams in that span, so it’s not as though all of their victories came against bad opponents.
But Seattle’s recent play has them in a pretty good under situation, as teams who allowed 28 or more points in each of their last two games and still managed to win are just 11-20 in totals dating back to 1991. This is the second time this has popped up this season and the first was the Chiefs vs. Colts a few weeks back. The last five times this has popped up the games have landed on the under, so while there are a few people I respect on the other side, will go ahead and take the under in this one.
END OF WEEK 7 PICKS
For our NFL System Play of the Week, where we’re 3-2 on the season, we’ll take a look at the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams opened as 3-point favorites and the line has held pretty steady. You did have to lay -120 with the Rans earlier in the week, but it’s dropped down to the traditional -110 both ways.
The 49ers have been a nice surprise so far this season, but then again, haven’t exactly faced off against the best the NFL has to offer, with road games against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati and their home schedule wasn’t much harder with games against the Steelers and the Monday night game against the Browns.
The 49ers have scored at least 30 points in three of their first four games and are also playing pretty good defense, allowing just 14.2 points per game.
The Rams are coming off a tough loss to the Seattle Seahawks and were absolutely horrible against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the game before that, at least of the defensive side of things, as they allowed 55 points to the Buccaneers. The Rams allowed 49 points in their first three games, so it’s not as though they can’t play defense.
The Rams offense hasn’t played too poorly, but you’re not going to win many games when the defense has been as bad as the Rams have been the past few weeks.
The Rams have a collection of smaller trends in their favor, but not really the one key system that we try to zero in on. For starters, teams who have lost at least their last two games are 19-13 ATS when favored over a team who has won at least four in a row. I like the premise of the trend, but there really aren’t quite enough games to make a significant sample size.
Home favorites who lost their last game by fewer than three points, which is obviously one or two points, are 21-12 ATS when hosting a team who won their last game by double-digits, so another points in the Rams’ favor.
The Rams have at least played New Orleans, Seattle and Carolina, along with two of the same teams the 49ers faced, Tampa Bay and Browns, so they’ve played a tougher slate than San Francisco.
The Rams have too much talent to play the way the past few weeks, so will take Los Angeles -3 in this one to get things turned around.
END OF WEEK 6 PICKS
We’re 2-2 with our NFL System Play of the Week and this week we’ll take a look at the game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals opened as 4-point favorites and the line is now down to Bengals -3 after the Cardinals received 70% of the wagers, which is usually a sign of trouble, but have to think the opening number was a bad one by oddsmakers, as they gave too much credit to Arizona’s last two defeats, assuming those would be sticking in the minds of bettors. But a 27-3 thumping at the hands of the Steelers also stuck in bettors minds and at least the Cardinals have a tie to their credit, so can see why people would be on Arizona in this one.
The Bengals played the Seahawks tough in their opener and also put up a decent fight against Buffalo, but have been blown out in their other two games. Arizona has been pretty much the same, playing tough in their first two games and getting beat-up a little bit in their last two.
Both teams have played some decent competition, with both playing Seattle and the Cardinals also getting the Panthers, Ravens and Detroit, while the Bengals have played the Steelers, 49ers and Bills, so it’s not as though either team is losing to the bottom feeders of the league and are playing teams that could challenge for playoff spots.
But after being an underdog three times and even the other game, asking the Bengals to cover as a favorite is a bit of a tall order, as winless teams in Week 5 or later cover the spread 44% of the time as a favorite, but it’s the Cardinals who sway the edge here, as away underdogs are 82-61-7 over the years after losing by at least 17 points in each of their last two games.
The Cardinals can be expected to throw in some clunkers this season, as it’s all part of playing a rookie quarterback. But Arizona has shown a little ability to run the ball, which is more than can be said for the Bengals, who are averaging under 50 yards per game.
The Cardinals get a slight edge on offense, as they’re averaging 4.3 more points per game than they Bengals, while Cincinnati has played slightly better defensively, allowing 31 fewer yards and 1.2 fewer points, so Arizona has slightly better numbers. This one is pretty much a toss-up so will have to take the points.
END OF WEEK 5 PICKS
For our NFL System Pick of the Week, where we’re just 1-2, we’ll take a look at the game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line is now up to Pats -7 with New England getting more than three-quarters of the wagers in this one.
The Patriots have torn through all three teams they’ve played so far, knocking off the Steelers 33-3 on opening day and following that up with a complete thrashing on the Miami Dolphins. Their toughest game of the year so far has been last week’s 30-14 win over the Jets, when New York scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns to prevent the shutout. The Patriots haven’t allowed an offensive touchdown this season
The Bills also bring a 3-0 record into this one, although they haven’t necessarily been impressive at times, but the bottom line is that they’re 3-0, just the same as the Patriots are. The Buffalo offense hasn’t really torn it up, but the defense has been solid, allowing a high of 17 points.
The Patriots have played just one road game and that was at Miami, so you have to take that one with a grain of salt, as the Fish have made everybody look good so far this season. Tom Brady has done most of the damage for the Patriots, who really haven’t gotten their rushing attack going this season and New England averages just 3.2 yards per carry and gains 98 yards per game.
New England’s rushing defense has gotten the job done, holding teams to 199 yards per game and have only allowed 110 rushing yards on the season, but that’s going to change Sunday, as the Bills can run the football and they’re not going to change the way they do things regardless of the defense they’re going up against. Buffalo has rushed for 151 yards per game and have attempted at least 25 runs in all three games, with more than 30 in each of their last two.
The number of bettors on the Patriots is exceptionally high for an NFL game and that seems like it spells trouble more often than not. One reason is that bettors are a little taken with the ease the Patriots have won their first three games, but teams who have won their last three games by a minimum of 16 points are just 35-52-4 (40.2%) ATS and it’s been New England responsible for the last two losses.
And the Bills are getting slighted a little bit, as well, since undefeated home underdogs in Week 4 or later have gone 9-2 dating back to 1996, so will take a shot on the Bills +7 in this one.
END OF WEEK 4 PICKS
Just a brutal play here last week with the Fish, as we dropped to 0-2 to start out the season. For this week, we’ll use one of the old stand-by systems that has withstood the test of time and that’s to go against home favorites off a victory as road underdogs when both spreads are at least 6 points.
The team that falls into the parameters this week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a 20-14 victory at Carolina and now favored over the New York Giants. The Bucs aren’t really a team you’d want to trust as favorites, no matter how poorly the opposition has played and Tampa Bay is just 6-11 as a favorite since 2015.
Tampa Bay was getting six points last week at Carolina in what looked to be a fairly cheap price for the Panthers, but the Bucs pulled off the upset after wilting in the second half against the 49ers opening week. Tampa Bay opened as 6.5-point favorites against the Giants and the line has dropped to 6.
Teams in the Bucs’ situation are just 27-37-1 ATS over the years, so it’s typically hard to follow through with back-to-back solid performances in the NFL. If the underdog in the game lost their previous game, the record falls to 23-36-1 (39%).
Obviously, the big news in New York this week is the benching of Eli Manning in favor of Jones and if you’re going to start your first NFL game on the road, Tampa is probably as good a place as any, as there are going to be plenty of empty seats and not the hostile atmosphere that you may find in a place like Green Bay or Seattle.
Away underdogs who lost each of their last two games by at least 14 points have gone 115-81-5 (58.7%) over the years, so a few decent situations favoring New York.
While Jones looked good in the preseason, this is a different situation all together, but the Bucs defense doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents even though they are coming off a pretty good game in Carolina. It was just the fourth time Tampa Bay has allowed 14 or fewer points on the road dating back to the 2010 season.
Not real thrilled the Giants are getting the majority of the wagers, although the quarterback change could have something to do with it, but will go ahead and take New York +6 in this one.
END OF WEEK 3 PICKS
A bit of an ugly start to the NFL last week, going 1-2, and losing an ugly one with the Chiefs under on this page. For our NFL System Play this week, we’ll look at the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins, where the Pats opened as 18-point favorites and are now 18.5 after receiving two-thirds of the early wagers. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5 even though more than 55% of the early wagers have come in on the under.
The Patriots didn’t have any problems against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night, rolling to a 33-3 victory and now travel to play a Dolphins team that was thumped 59-10 by the Baltimore Ravens. The spread is certainly on the high side, but it’s a decent number, as evidenced by all of the wagers that have come in on the Pats.
Naturally, I can’t pass up the Fish as such large underdogs and there is a bit of support for Miami, with home underdogs who lost their last game by 30 or more points going 68-48-5 against the spread over the years and 30-20-2 if they are getting a touchdown or more.
But the Patriots are in an even worse situation that sees double-digit road favorites posting an 8-19 ATS record if they allowed seven or fewer points in their previous game. Somehow, these double-digit favorites are just 18-9 straight-up, as well, while you would expect a better number out of a team favored by at least 10 points. These plays don’t come about too often, as they’re just 1-8 ATS dating back to the 2006 season.
The Patriots were a much different team on the road last year, where they averaged just 23.3 points per game, so not sure about laying 18.5 with them in this spot, as only once did they win by 19 points last year, when they beat Buffalo 25-6.
The other storyline besides how much the Dolphins stunk it up in Game 1 is how Brian Flores will do trying to slow down his old team, where he was the defensive coordinator and probably knows the New England personnel as well as anybody.
The Dolphins might be looking forward to the future, but the NFL is still a business and another 40-point loss is going to lead to a lot of empty seats, so expect a better effort from the ‘Fins in this one and will grab Miami and the points.
END OF WEEK 2 PICKS
Time to turn to the NFL and we’ll start off with our NFL Betting System Picks and look at a system that we’ve used the same basic premise for a couple of seasons now and one that’s specific to Week 1. The basic premise is we’re looking for home underdogs to go under the total in Week 1. We can break it down to more specifics based on the spread and the total.
But the common premise of taking games with a home underdog has gone a solid 58-89-5 (39.5%) dating all the back to the 1990 season. If we look at more recent trends, from 2010 onward, it’s still solid, going 16-27-4, which is 37.2% overs.
As of Friday night we have five road favorites, but the game we’ll look at it is the one between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City opened as 4.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 3.5 despite the Chiefs getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The total has moved from 52 to 51 with more than two-thirds of the early wagers on the under.
If we look at Week 1 games with a road favorite and a total of 45 or higher, the record is just 9-26-1 and three of the games meet that criteria, but taking the Jacksonville game here, as the Jags have been dominant at home defensively and last year didn’t allow more than 20 points at home in a single game. Nick Foles is an improvement over the Blake Bortles we saw last year, but he doesn’t have do anything other than make smart decisions and not turn the ball over.
On the other side of the equation, Kansas City scored a minimum of 27 points in their road games and averaged 38, so something is going to have to give here and believe it will be the Kansas City offense. The Jaguars can play ball a ball control game when the offense is clicking, which it never did last year under Bortles despite the defense standing on its head at times.
The Jaguars know they’re not going to be able to match the Chiefs in a shootout, so the best chance for Jacksonville is going to be to try and shorten the game; run the ball a lot and take some time between plays to let the clock run.
This one should be a decent game between teams with different philosophies, but will take the under in this spot.