We have made it to the end. There are 266 NFL games in the books and we have one more to go. Throughout the season, all of those games have been covered in the NFL Market Report and we have one final version to go.
Hopefully these articles and all of the other pieces here at BangTheBook.com have been helpful for you over the course of the season. We have a lot of NFL content and we are very proud of what we have put together. And, to not to be punny, but we are going out with a bang on the 2019 NFL season with all of our Super Bowl coverage. We have over 15 prop betting articles for the big game and more yet to come.
For now, let’s take a look at that line and break it all down in the final NFL Market Report of the season.
101/102 San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs – The irony is that we’ve had something to report about just about every one of those previous 266 games, but there just isn’t much to say about the side and total for this game. After the initial big move up on the total from 51.5 or 52 to as high as 55 in the market, the total has just hovered in the 54 and 54.5 range.
For the last several days, market observers have been waiting and watching for the under money to come in. It is only a matter of time. The writing is on the wall with some sharp money coming in on under stats for the quarterback props, as mentioned by Brent from DSI Sportsbook on Friday’s edition of BangTheBook Radio. We’re also seeing some sharp money on the first half under for the game and there are a lot of sharp people that also like the under in the first quarter.
It is entirely possible that we have a CFP National Championship situation in which the first quarter starts slow and things really pick up after that, but the expectation is that under money will begin to hit the board as we get closer to kickoff. It is just a waiting game.
It is also hard to look at the Super Bowl this far out. I know that sounds crazy since it is already Friday and we’re going to be 48 hours out from the game later today, but the vast majority of the money hasn’t come in yet. This is such a heavily bet public game that Brent estimated that 70% of the handle would come in on Saturday and Sunday.
With that in mind, and with the over and the Chiefs as the public positions to this point, sharp money with influential money and deep pockets are in no hurry to rush to the window and take the under or the 49ers. The public money has a chance at driving the total up to 55 or 55.5 market-wide and maybe even sweetening the line a little bit to +2 or +115 on the 49ers. Because of that, influential money waiting to fire on the 49ers and the under is just waiting patiently.
In the meantime, there are a ton of prop bets to be looking at and we can get a semblance of the game flow and the spotlight players from that. As mentioned, we’ve seen some under money for some of the quarterback props, hence the expectation of a move down on the total. We’ve also seen sharp money hit the board on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards over, as that line has moved upwards of 5-6 yards on the Kansas City QB.
With the extraordinarily high limits on the Super Bowl and much higher limits on prop bets than we would typically see in a given week, there is still time for some of the smart groups and sharp individuals to massage the markets a little bit. We could see a bump up to that 55 or 55.5 target number at the shops willing to take bigger bets. We could see some noteworthy money to move a prop up or down a little bit to come back on the other side.
It is really crazy to think that this line has been up for 12 days now, but we have barely scratched the surface on the action that will come in on the game. It doesn’t make for great content by any means, but at least you will have an idea of what you want to watch for on Saturday and then on game day. There are going to be a ton of movements based on public and sharp action in the 48 hours leading up to the game and some of them may be rather surprising.
For example, do not be entirely shocked if this line falls back to pick ‘em or if the 49ers even get favored some places. Do not be shocked if the total hits 55 or 55.5 and gets hammered back down into the 54 or maybe even 53.5 range. I have no knowledge of whether or not that happens, but you don’t want to underestimate the influence of the respected bettors in the community.
Ultimately, we are all waiting and watching the market. Bettors, observers, analysts, content creators, podcasters, major mainstream media, and, of course, the risk managers and the sportsbooks themselves. Lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of money is yet to come on this game and we’re all just waiting to see which direction it comes and to what degree the market adjusts.
This is the biggest single betting event in the world and you know that there will be a lot to talk about when this game actually gets going.
Thanks for hanging out with us this season for the Market Report and all of the other fine NFL work we do right here at BangTheBook.com. We’ll be around throughout the offseason with draft coverage, futures odds updates, and thoughts on the season win totals and early betting odds.
Enjoy the game and good luck!