Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season started with a tremendous NFC West showdown between Seattle and Arizona on Thursday Night Football, while Sunday brings more exciting picks and markets to the bettors with 12 games on the schedule.
Monday Night Football will see another marquee NFC clash, as Tampa Bay welcomes the LA Rams, so I’ve prepared the best NFL betting picks for the next few days along with the latest odds update on BetDSI.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3.0)
Since 2000, the Philadelphia Eagles have won five straight matchups with the Cleveland Browns. In their previous duel, the Eagles beat the Browns 29-10 on September 11, 2016. However, things have changed lately, and the Browns enter this game with a 6-3 record, while the Eagles are 3-5-1 on the season.
Therefore, the Browns opened as 3-point favorites in this one, but I’m backing the Eagles to keep it close and cover. Both teams desperately need a win, and I expect to see a hard-fought battle decided by a field goal down the stretch.
Nick Chubb returned from a knee injury last weekend, and the Browns marked it with a 10-7 home victory over Houston. Cleveland will continue to lean heavily on its ground game. The Browns are posting 159.0 rushing yards per contest (3rd in the NFL), and with Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, you cannot ask for more.
Although Philadelphia surrenders 133.0 rushing yards per game (26th), the Eagles should have enough offensive weapons to keep it close. After two straight wins over the Giants 22-21 and Cowboys 23-9, the Eagles suffered a 27-17 defeat at the Giants this past weekend, and Carson Wentz finished the game without a TD pass.
Philadelphia is still topping the NFC East despite its poor record. The Eagles have been pretty unpredictable thus far, showing awful displays against mediocre teams and battling bravely against the heavyweights. The Browns are probably somewhere in the middle, and they will miss their best defensive player Myles Garrett due to the COVID-19.
Both Phila and Cleveland are 3-6 ATS this term. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four outings and 2-4 ATS in their previous six games at home, while the Eagles are 3-3 ATS in their last six showings on the road.
Week 11 Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (-120)
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-5.0)
I got burnt on Baltimore in Week 10, as Lamar Jackson and his teammates continued with a disappointing performance in 2020. The Ravens allowed 173 rushing yards in a 23-17 defeat at the New England Patriots, showing once again they are incapable of overcoming a deficit.
I’m pretty sure the Titans will attack the Ravens on the ground, too. Derrick Henry will torture Baltimore’s run D, while the Ravens will try to do the same thing with the Titans’ defense.
However, the Titans have some serious problems in their secondary. Their run D allows 120.7 yards per game (17th in the NFL), while the Titans surrender a whopping 277.4 passing yards per contest (28th).
The Ravens’ passing game has been terrible thus far. They are 31st in the league in passing yards per contest (184.1), so the Titans should improve defensively in this one and keep it within a touchdown.
Both Tennessee and Baltimore enter Week 11 with a 6-3 record and desperately need a win to stay in the playoff picture. I expect to see a tight battle and would be surprised if someone wins by eight or more points.
Also, this is the rematch of last season’s AFC divisional round when the Titans upset the Ravens 28-12 as 10-point road underdogs. Tennessee is 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in its previous ten encounters with Baltimore.
Week 11 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +7.0 (-163)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+7.0)
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye, fresh and ready to get payback against the Las Vegas Raiders and improve to 9-1 on the season. The reigning champs suffered their lone defeat in Week 5 when the Raiders beat them 40-32 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Since then, the Chiefs have won four straight games. They’ve had some problems to outlast Carolina last time out, 33-31, but the Chiefs still look like the best team in football. Patrick Mahomes has tossed for nine touchdowns over the last two outings, and the 25-year-old signal-caller has 25 TD passes and just one interception in 2020.
On the other side, the Raiders are riding a three-game win streak following a 37-12 victory to the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Their defense has improved, but Las Vegas is still allowing 26.8 points per contest (19th in the NFL). Also, their secondary yields 264.9 passing yards per game (25th), and I expect Mahomes to dominate this clash.
Last season, the Chiefs dismantled the Raiders twice, 28-10 in Oakland and 40-9 in Kansas City. They are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Raiders, though these two AFC West foes meet in Las Vegas for the first time.
After three straight wins, I expect to see some regression by the Raiders. They have one of the best RBs in the league in Josh Jacobs, but their defensive unit and the offensive line will struggle against the reigning champs.
Week 11 Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-120)
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.0)
The Rams are 6-3 on the season exclusively thanks to their terrific defense. LA surrenders only 18.7 points per game (2nd in the league) on 96.8 rushing yards (5th) and 199.7 passing yards (3rd).
You won’t find much better defensive units this season, but the Buccaneers are doing a solid job. Tampa allows 22.6 points (8th) on 76.6 rushing yards (1st) and 223.7 passing yards (9th).
Hereof, both teams should have problems to put numbers on the scoreboard, but I think Jared Goff will struggle more than Tom Brady, while I also trust the Bucs’ ground game more. Also, the Bucs were humiliated by the Saints in their previous outing at Raymond James Stadium, so I’m looking for a bounce-back performance.
Last weekend, the Bucs thrashed off Carolina 46-23 as 6-point road favorites. They have so many dangerous weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and I cannot say the same thing about the Rams. LA beat Seattle 23-16 last weekend, but this time, the Rams will face off against a much better defensive team than the hapless Seahawks.
The Rams are 1-3 straight up following a straight-up win and 0-3 ATS following an ATS victory. Also, the Rams are 1-3 ATS in their last four outings on the road. LA is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six encounters with Tampa, but the Buccaneers are a completely different team this year.
Week 11 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-163)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-7.0)
Kirk Cousins just recorded his first Thursday Night Football victory, as the Minnesota Vikings extended their winning streak to three games. They beat the Chicago Bears 19-13 in Week 10, so the Vikings’ playoff hopes are alive.
Minnesota will look to stay on the winning path Sunday against Dallas, and the Vikings are 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Cowboys. Also, the Vikings went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their previous six home encounters with Dallas.
Let’s make this clear. I don’t trust Kirk Cousins at all. He’s second in the league in interceptions (11) and rarely plays well under pressure. Also, the Vikings’ defense is poor, allowing 27.4 points per contest (23rd in the NFL). But during their win streak, the Vikings have been yielding only 18.3 points per outing.
They beat Green Bay 28-22, Detroit 34-20, and Chicago 19-13, and Dalvin Cook scored six touchdowns in that span. The 25-year-old RB has had four games with 130-plus rushing yards in his last six outings, and the Cowboys are allowing a whopping 157.0 rushing yards per game (31st).
Andy Dalton will return under center for the Cowboys, but he’s played poorly since Dak Prescott’s injury, tossing for a TD and three interceptions. Furthermore, Ezekiel Elliott has been a complete disaster with no scores and three fumbles over his last four games.
With so many problems on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys could have a long day in Minneapolis, especially if Dalvin Cook put on a strong performance. On the other hand, the Boys are still alive in the playoff chase despite a 2-7 record, so they will have a huge motive to upset the odds.
Still, the 4-5 Vikings desperately need a win, too.
Week 11 Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-163)