If we are fortunate enough to get a full NFL season, the race in the NFC could be a whole lot of fun. And I’m not just talking about the NFC playoffs and the conference championship. The division races look very competitive in at least three of the four divisions.
The San Francisco 49ers are the only really clear-cut favorite now that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have signed Tom Brady. The New Orleans Saints may be the biggest favorite on paper, but you better bet that the sheer amount of futures money coming in on Brady and the Bucs is going to drive some of their prices down rather significantly in the lead-up to the season, even with the odds movement that has taken place already.
We’ve already taken a look at the AFC Division futures odds and now it is time to dig into the NFC. Obviously there are still a lot of moving parts with players that are unsigned and the upcoming NFL Draft. Still, it can be a great time to get a look at the board and also a great opportunity to get a strong division futures price while we don’t have anything else taking up important bankroll resources.
We’ll compare the odds side-by-side from BetOnline Sportsbook and 5Dimes Sportsbook. As always, you want to shop around for the best division winner odds that you can find. Maybe they are here at BOL or 5D or maybe you can find them at DSI Sportsbook, Bookmaker, MyBookie, or somewhere else. We encourage you to check out our sportsbook reviews, including our top Bitcoin sportsbooks, and see what works best for you.
|New York Giants||+650||+725|
|Green Bay Packers||+125||+138|
|New Orleans Saints||-125||-135|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+200||+205|
|San Francisco 49ers||-110||+118|
|Los Angeles Rams||+400||+310|
Does the NFC really have the amount of parity suggested by the division betting odds? As mentioned above, the Saints are the biggest division favorite, deservedly so, but that Tom Brady steam has already leaked into the market to depress Buccaneers futures prices.
The only difference in favorites between the two books is in the NFC East, where 5Dimes has the Philadelphia Eagles favored and the Dallas Cowboys as the second choice. The Cowboys price is just about the same at each book, but the Eagles price is lower at 5Dimes than it is at BetOnline.
Let’s take a look with some quick thoughts on each division:
NFC East – Pick your team. Is it the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys? The New York Giants and Washington Redskins would need something just shy of a miracle to win the division it would seem. The biggest changes for Dallas have been on the sidelines, with Mike McCarthy now in place instead of Jason Garrett. Is that the change that Dallas needed? Amari Cooper is still there and, barring a holdout, Dak Prescott will be as well.
The Cowboys did lose some defensive pieces, namely Byron Jones. Speaking of defensive backs, the Eagles picked up Darius Slay to help out their beleaguered last line of defense. They actually signed a few safeties as well. A healthy Philadelphia team has the highest ceiling of anybody in this division, but we have no idea if they will be healthy.
Unfortunately, those two flawed teams are your only options.
NFC North – The Green Bay Packers have been quiet in free agency. Run-stopper Christian Kirksey has been the biggest name. Minnesota has to replace offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and also find another weapon for Kirk Cousins after the trade of Stefon Diggs. Of course, that weapon will likely come in the form of the NFL Draft, which is loaded with wide receiver talent.
The Chicago Bears still have zero starting quarterbacks with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, but at least they have options! The NFC North seems like a tough division to peg. Minnesota has the best chance at being consistent over the duration of the season. It is hard to forget about how Green Bay was so good in the first quarter and so pedestrian for the other three quarters most weeks. It was also a Green Bay team that went 13-3, but only had a +63 point differential. Minnesota lost both head-to-head meetings, but went 10-6 with a +104 point differential.
Minnesota seems like the value grab of the bunch, particularly because of the improvements and enhancements that could be coming via the Draft.
NFC South – The NFC South title picture is rather fascinating. You have the New Orleans Saints, who are the best all-around team in the division. But, you have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 7-9 with a positive point differential and an offense that was just as potent as that of the Saints, in spite of 2,000 turnovers. The Buccaneers go from Jameis Winston and his 30/30 season to Tom Brady. While Brady’s skills are clearly in decline, his decision-making skills will still be better than Winston’s in 10 years, let alone how much better they are now.
How much stock do you want to buy in the Bucs? They were a buy team coming into this season, even with Winston. With Brady in the fold, the market has already isolated them as a buy team, as their win total line has gone up and their Super Bowl and NFC Championship odds have been lowered.
What about the decline of Drew Brees? Brees missed a good chunk of the season and still seemed gassed by the time the playoffs rolled around. Is there the slimmest chance that it could open the door for the Atlanta Falcons? They actually played really well in the second half of the season to save Dan Quinn’s job and also battled a series of injuries of their own.
Call me crazy, but the Falcons could spoil the party. I’m not sure 6/1 is good enough to bet on them to do so, but they are a team I’d be looking for reasons to bet on early in the year as an afterthought in this division.
NFC West – Don’t overthink this one, folks. The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in this division and quite possibly the best team in the NFC. This division price is too low. It has been a really positive offseason for the Arizona Cardinals with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to an offense now loaded with weapons.
That is still a Cardinals team that gave up 442 points last season. The Seattle Seahawks may have been the most fraudulent 11-5 team in NFL history with a +7 point differential. The Los Angeles Rams are fading fast now that everybody is running the Sean McVay offense and with way too much money tied up in a marginal QB in Jared Goff. The Rams have had some enormous defensive losses recently, including Cory Littleton and Michael Brockers in this free agency cycle.
The 49ers are the best bet on the board for the NFC, even if the return seems kind of unappetizing for sitting on this bet for the next 9.5 months. San Francisco easily has the best defense in the division and could very well have the best offense if Jimmy Garoppolo takes a step forward. Quite frankly, they may have the best offense even if he doesn’t.
For more on the offseason odds, be sure to check out our division thoughts on the AFC.