New York Yankees at Houston Astros ALCS Betting Pick 10/12/19

0

The New York Yankees are taking on the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the ALCS. The first pitch of the series will be thrown at 8:08 p.m. ET and the game will be nationally televised on Fox.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros Odds

New York (getting +145) is the underdog against Houston (-155) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Yankees +1.5 (-150) and Astros -1.5 (+130).

The Yankees have gone 106-59 SU across the regular season and playoffs, and are 96-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 16.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 26.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Astros, on the other hand, are 110-57 SU and 92-75 ATS. They’ve gained 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.2 units ATS. Houston has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Houston games have had an over/under record of 75-86-6 in 2019. New York has been a good over bet with a total record of 87-73-5.

The right-handed Masahiro Tanaka will get the start for the visiting Yankees. Tanaka is 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 149 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA against Houston this year (two starts).

The Astros will send righty Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. Greinke has 187 strikeouts and 30 walks as well as a 0.98 WHIP. Greinke is 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 2.13 ERA over two starts against New York this year.

With a team slash line of .293/.407/.525, New York has averaged 7.7 runs scored through three postseason games. The Astros are hitting .242/.294/.406 and the team has put up 3.8 runs in the 2019 playoffs.

The Astros bullpen (10.8 K/9) has registered an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.85 this postseason, while Yankees relievers (9.0 K/9) have fared significantly better with a 2.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

New York’s offensive production has been powered by second baseman DJ LeMahieu and shortstop Gleyber Torres, who have combined to drive in 200 runs. LeMahieu is slashing .326/.374/.521 with 27 home runs, 106 RBIs and 113 runs scored. Torres (.281/.339/.543) has produced 39 homers, 94 RBIs and 101 runs scored.

Left fielder Michael Brantley and first baseman Yuli Gurriel have led the Astros’ hitters this year. Brantley is hitting .308/.368/.498 with 23 home runs, 91 RBIs and 91 runs scored, while Gurriel is batting .298 with 31 homers, 108 RBIs and 86 runs.

The Yankees have gained 10.8 units and are 64-50 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 60 of those games, compared to 51 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Astros have lost 9.3 units and are 63-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 57 of those games, as opposed to 56 that’ve cashed the under.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Yankees, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

New York has tallied 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. Houston has 15 XBH over its last five.

The Yankees have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Astros have hit 16 over their last 10.

The Yankees have a team OPS of .832 this season and an OPS of .821 against right-handed pitchers. The Astros’ OPS stands at .847 overall and .829 versus righties.

The New York defense has coughed up eight errors over the last 10 games, compared to only two errors for Houston over its last 10.

Leave a Reply