Expect a shootout when the New Orleans Pelicans (26-35) and the Dallas Mavericks (37-25) square off at American Airlines Center. Action starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN.
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks Odds Preview
The Pelicans were beaten by the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last contest, 139-134, despite being 2-point favorites. Despite the loss, New Orleans’ Jrue Holiday registered his zeroth triple-double this season. He dominated, collecting 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds. Minnesota did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (17-20; 85.0 percent). New Orleans, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (28.9 vs. 24.4). The two teams combined to put up 273 points, which was well over the O/U total of 236.5.
In the Mavericks’ previous outing, they were 6.5-point favorites and were defeated by the Chicago Bulls, 109-107. With 23 points, nine assists and five rebounds, Dallas’ Luka Doncic had a solid outing. Chicago coerced the Mavericks into a TO percentage of 14.7 (above their season average of 10.8). Dallas, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (15-20; 75.0 percent). The two teams combined to score 216 points, which came in under the O/U total of 220.
These two teams have already met three times this year, with the Mavericks winning all three. In the most recent matchup, Doncic scored a game-high 26 points and the Mavericks defeated the Pelicans 130-84, covering as 8.5-point favorites. He also put up nine assists and six rebounds. The two teams combined to score 214 points, which was 16.5 points below the projected point total of 230.5 points. The Mavericks played a perfect game. They had a phenomenal effective field goal percentage of 0.610 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.5. For those same stats, the Pelicans had marks of 0.376 and 14.5, respectively.
Games including these teams have a tendency to finish over the O/U total. New Orleans games have gone over 55.0 percent of the time, while 61.3 percent of Dallas games have finished over. The Mavericks come into this game with a clear advantage in terms of straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 37-25 SU and 36-26 ATS, while the Pelicans are 26-35 SU and 28-28-4 ATS.
Dallas could put on a ball-control clinic in this matchup. Dallas ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.0 percent), while New Orleans forces the seventh-fewest turnovers (12.8 percent).
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
The Pelicans average 14.4 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the league. The Mavericks rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
New Orleans ranks third in assists per game (27.0) while Dallas ranks 14th (24.4).
New Orleans ranks eighth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.5).
Dallas ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while New Orleans ranks 11th (4.7).
On the road, New Orleans is 14-12-4 ATS with 17 overs and 13 unders.
At home, Dallas is 13-17 ATS with 19 overs and 11 unders.
Dallas is 9-0 when they allow below 100 points, while New Orleans is 3-0.
The Pelicans are 26-32 when they score above 100 points, while the Mavericks are 37-23.
The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.3) while the Pelicans rank 15th in three pointers allowed per game (33.7).
Dallas ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while New Orleans ranks 28th (19.1).
The Pelicans average 17.3 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.6).
The Pelicans rank fifth in rebounds per game (46.7) while the Mavericks rank 15th in rebounds allowed per game (45.3).
Dallas ranks eighth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while New Orleans ranks 28th (8.5).
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.
Over its past five games, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 6.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 117.6 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.8 points per game (0.4 below their season average).