New Mexico State at Georgia Southern College Football Free Pick 10/26/19


The New Mexico State Aggies and Georgia Southern Eagles will face off on the grass at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. ESPN 3 is scheduled to have the TV rights and kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET.

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New Mexico State at Georgia Southern Betting Odds 10/26/2019

Georgia Southern is giving up 15 points in this game. The Aggies are currently being given +550 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -840. The over/under has been set at 54 points. There should be some good live betting opportunities for the game.

The Aggies are 0-7 straight up (SU) while the Eagles are 3-3 SU. The Aggies have lost 4.0 units so far and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-4.

The Eagles have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 1-4-1 ATS and the over’s hit in four of its games.

The Aggies lost to Central Michigan 42-28 in a game where their defense allowed the Chippewas to eat up the clock by rushing for 352 yards on 56 attempts, including three rush TDs. Jonathan Ward torched the defense in that one with 131 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts, along with 36 yards on four catches. On the offensive side, Josh Adkins completed 24 passes for 263 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Jason Huntley (67 yards on 10 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Tony Nicholson (seven receptions, 86 yards) and Naveon Mitchell (five catches, 52 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Georgia Southern Eagles are coming off of a 30-27 win over Coastal Carolina. The defense allowed the Chanticleers to run for 132 yards on 47 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Bryce Carpenter was a bright spot in the loss, posting 61 rushing yards and a score on 23 attempts for Coastal Carolina. For Georgia Southern, Shai Werts completed four-of-eight passes for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Wesley Kennedy III had an outstanding statline in the win. Along with 129 yards on 25 rush attempts (and two TDs), Kennedy III also reeled in two catches for 16 yards.

New Mexico State’s run the ball on 41.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has an overall rush percentage of 82.5 percent. The Aggies have produced 105 rush yards/game and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Eagles are putting up 237 rush yards per contest and have 10 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Eagles may have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Aggies have registered 3.7 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 6.0 to opponents.

The Aggies have averaged 251 yards in the air overall and have nine passing TDs so far. The Eagles have put up 56 pass yards per outing and have two total pass scores.

New Mexico State has let opponents rush for an average of 244 yards and pass for 245 yards per game. Georgia Southern has allowed 121.2 rushing yards per game and 233.5 to opposing teams in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Aggies have given up an ANY/A of 8.44 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles are yielding an ANY/A of 8.77.

Werts has put up 98 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Werts’ adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at a terrible 3.75 for the year and 6.07 over his past two games. In the other huddle, Adkins has amassed 1,473 passing yards this season. He’s completed 153-of-246 attempts with nine passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Adkins has a 4.08 ANY/A, including 5.45 over the last two games.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Georgia Southern got the victory 48-31.

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Free Pick

SU Winner – Georgia Southern, ATS Winner – Georgia Southern, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

The Georgia Southern defense has sacked opposing QBs nine times this season. New Mexico State has produced six sacks.

Georgia Southern has lost six fumbles this season while the New Mexico State offense has lost seven.

The Aggies offense has tallied five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Eagles have put up one such play.

Both defenses have allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more. The New Mexico State defense has given up 12 pass plays of 30+ yards while Georgia Southern has permitted 13 such plays.

The New Mexico State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Georgia Southern has created 15 such runs.

The Aggies defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Eagles have given up four such runs.

The O/U for Georgia Southern’s previous outing was 43. The over cashed in the team’s 30-27 victory over Coastal Carolina.

In its last three games, Georgia Southern is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three matches, New Mexico State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for New Mexico State’s last game was 56.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-28 defeat to Central Michigan.

New Mexico State has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.

Georgia Southern has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.

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