Nevada at UTEP NCAA Football Betting Pick 9/21/19


The Miners (+13.5) are gearing up to welcome the Nevada Wolf Pack (-13.5) to Utep. The game starts at 8:00 p.m. ET and spectators can tune in to the action on ESPN 3.

Nevada vs. UTEP Betting Predictions 9/21/2019

In this Saturday game, Nevada is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13.5 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to lay down $600 in order to win $100 back on the Wolf Pack (-600). The Miners are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one squad gets out in front early it would create a decent live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53.5 points.

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Sharp bettors tend to be siding with the under, as the game’s over/under was originally set at 58.

The Wolf Pack are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.3 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-0.

The Miners have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 0-1-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-1.

The Wolf Pack are 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Miners are 1-1 SU.

The Wolf Pack enter after a 19-13 victory over Weber State last week. The passing attack could’ve been sharper as Carson Strong completed 30 passes for 299 yards and two interceptions. Toa Taua (85 yards on 16 rushes) and Jaxson Kincaide (75 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Elijah Cooks (six receptions, 65 yards) and Kincaide (five catches, 51 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Back on September 7, Texas Tech knocked off this UTEP team by a score of 38-3. The Miners defensive unit allowed the Red Raiders to kill the clock by rushing for 143 yards on 30 attempts, including two rush TDs. Dalton Rigdon put up a productive outing for Texas Tech, posting 17 rushing yards on one attempt, along with 83 yards on five catches. As a group, the Miners collectively completed seven-of-19 passes for 54 yards. Brandon Jones went four-for-12 for 21 yards while Kai Locksley was three-of-seven for 33 yards. Josh Fields (27 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Treyvon Hughes (27 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the running game as Tre’Shon Wolf (three receptions, 8 yards) and DeVaughn Cooper (two catches, 26 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Nevada has run the ball on 46.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UTEP has a rush percentage of 68.3 percent. The Wolf Pack have produced 115 rush yards/game and have two touchdowns on the ground this year. The Miners are putting up 159 rushing yards per game and have three total rush TDs.

The Wolf Pack offense has tallied 235 yards per game through the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Miners have put up 161 pass yards per game and have only one pass TDs.

Defensively, Nevada has let opponents rush for an average of 130 yards and throw for 296 yards per game. The UTEP D has allowed 290.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Miners are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.98 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have allowed a whopping 8.82 ANY/A.

Strong has amassed 594 pass yards this season. He’s completed 60-of-95 attempts with three passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Strong has a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 2.09 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Wolf Pack to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. The tandem of Jaxson Kincaide (78 rush yards, one rush TD, 55 receiving yards) and Toa Taua (141 rush yards, one rush TD) have brought significant production to the Nevada offensive scheme.

Brandon Jones has completed 4-of-12 passes for 21 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs for UTEP. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 1.31 for the season and 6.56 over his last two outings.

The Miners also like to rely on their backfield. Along with Tre’Shon Wolf (eight receiving yards), Treyvon Hughes (27 rush yards) and Josh Fields (27 rush yards) have seen a lot of looks recently.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UTEP Miners NCAA Pick

SU Winner – Nevada, ATS Winner – Nevada, O/U – Under


Betting Notes

UTEP has lost one fumble this season while Nevada has lost three.

The Wolf Pack offense has produced zero pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Miners have put up two such plays.

Both defenses have allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Nevada defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while UTEP has given up four such plays.

The Nevada offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while UTEP has created four such run.

The Wolf Pack defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Miners have given up one such run.

Each team defense has recorded three sacks this year.

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