Home College Basketball College Basketball Betting Articles NCAA Basketball First Half Over Under The Total Predictions 2/28/2020

NCAA Basketball First Half Over Under The Total Predictions 2/28/2020

We fell to 57-45-5 with these plays yesterday, ending with a 1-2 record for the night, which happens all too often after going 5-0 the night before, which is one reason the game can be so hard. Decent sized schedule today, although most of the games where we have differences between our projections and the total have some other factors that render them a no play. As we frequently do, we’ll get the numbers and the plays posted and then come back and look at a few other games, as many of you are interested in betting more than the one or two games I’ll release with the articles.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Monmouth at Rider: The total here is 70.5 and I have it at just 64, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams are in lower-scoring locations and while Monmouth sees an additional .8 points scored in their conference games, Rider sees 2.4 fewer points in the first half of their conference games. One possible reason the line is higher than expected is the 90-84 game the teams played earlier this year in a game that saw 72 points in the first half. But Monmouth is a lower-scoring team away from home, while the defense doesn’t really drop off all that much, while Rider scores a little more, but allows even less.

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Harvard at Columbia: This one is 66 and I made it 63 on the overall numbers, but with both teams playing to higher first half scores in tonight’s location, it becomes a quick pass. Harvard sees 3.6 more points in their road games, while Columbia sees .2 more points at home and +1.0 more points in conference games.

Quinnipac at Fairfield: We have this one at 56 and the total is 59.5, but with Fairfield seeing 1.2 more points in their home games, will just stay away from this one. Would probably still lean to the under if I had to play it, but can’t imagine there are many people running around who absolutely have to have a wager on this game.

Dartmouth at Cornell: This one is 58 and my overall numbers have it at 62, but both teams are much-lower scoring squads in tonight’s location. Dartmouth sees a decrease of 2.3 points in the first half when they take to the road, while Cornell sees 3.3 fewer points in the first half of their home games. There really isn’t much difference in the scoring of either team in their conference games compared to their overall scoring, so will just sit this one out.

 

END OF FEB. 28 PICKS

We moved to 57-44-5 on the season on Wednesday and now have one of the toughest cards that we’ve had in a while for Thursday, as most games where we have a bit of a difference between our numbers and the line have some underlying factors that remove them from consideration.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Irvine at Cal Poly: The total here is 64 and I have it at 67, but the Mustangs play to 4 fewer points when they’re at home and actually play a little bit of defense. With Irvine seeing 1.8 fewer points of their away games, this one becomes a quick pass, especially when factoring in Irvine’s conference scoring averages, which are 2.6 fewer points than their overall numbers.

St. Mary’s at Santa Clara: Interesting game here, in that it’s a revenge game for St. Mary’s, who also has Gonzaga up next, so not really sure what we expect from the Gaels in this one. Both teams shoot well, but Santa Clara has better defensive numbers against weaker competition. Santa Clara has dropped five straight and they’ve been getting waxed in the first half, seeing the scoring fall to 29.6 points in that span, while allowing 39, so too many question marks to get involved with this one.

Arizona State at UCLA: This one came out at 66.5 and we have it at 61, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. The Bruins do see 3.3 more points in their home games, but the Sen Devils play to 2.3 fewer points when they’re on the road and both teams are a couple of points below their overall scoring when it comes to conference play. The Bruins have won their last five games and they’ve done so by playing defense, scoring 29 and allowing 29.2 points in the first half and teams have a tendency to stick with what is working for them, so have to think UCLA will look for another game close to the vest. Arizona State scored 39 points in the first half when they won in Tempe earlier this season, so think the Bruins will come out with an emphasis on playing tough defense in this one.

END OF FEB. 27 PICKS

We moved to 56-44-5 on Tuesday with a 1-0-1 day, settling for the push when scoring slowed down in the last few minutes of the Loyola game, as the teams combined for six points in the final 3:28 of the first half, but that’s how things go at times. Just one play in all three of our college basketball articles for today.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Notre Dame at Boston College: This one is at 67 and we have it at 63, but a little hard to play the under when the Irish are involved in conference games, as Notre Dame sees 3.0 more points and the Eagles also see .5 more points in their conference games. Notre Dame does see a scoring decrease on the road, while the Eagles see a slight increase in home scoring in the first half.

Utah at Stanford: The total here is 61.5 and I have it at 57, so will take a shot on the under, although Stanford did get us late in the first half about a week-and-a-half ago at Washington State. Utah sees a scoring decrease of 2.2 points in the first half when they take to the road, but also see a 4.5 point drop in first half points of their conference games. Stanford sees a scoring decrease of .7 points in their home games and a slight .4 point increase in the scores of their conference games. The Utes hold teams to .13 fewer first half points than they average, while Stanford limits teams to 6 points less than they average in the first half.

Utah Valley at Cal Baptist: This one is 70.5 and I have at 67, but with Cal Baptist averaging 3.9 more points at home, will stay away. Cal Baptist is one of those teams I haven’t really been able to get a handle on this season. They do see 5.1 fewer points in the first half of conference games, although Utah Valley sees an increase of 2.3 points and will just stay clear of this one.

Boise State at UNLV: Another game where we have a bit of a difference between our projection and the line, but UNLV does see 1.6 more points in their conference. They do play better defense at home, but if they have any sort of letdown after knocking off San Diego State it could very well be on the defensive end, so no real interest in this one.

END OF FEB. 26 PICKS

Back to the grind a little bit today, as we’ll have two plays. As usual, we’ll look at the later games, although we’ll start with the 8 p.m. games for this evening. We’re 55-44-4 with these plays for the season, as we did drop both of them on Sunday and passed on Monday’s four-game slate.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Drake at Loyola: The total here is just 59 and I have it at 68, so will go ahead and have to take the over in this one. Drake does see a scoring decrease of 3.1 points when they take to the road, although Loyola sees an extra 1.0 points when they’re the home team. Both teams are also scoring more points in the conference games, so think we have a shot here. In the first meeting between the two, the final score was 65-62 but the score was 38-34 at halftime.

Clemson at Georgia Tech: This came up a little bit shy of being an under play, as the total is 59.5 and I have it at 57, but would probably lean that was, as both teams are in their lower-scoring locations, with the Tigers seeing 2.2 fewer points in their games on the road and the Yellow Jackets seeing 2.6 fewer points in the first half of their home games. Clemson is slightly lower scoring in conference, but Georgia Tech sees an extra 1.3 points in the first half of their conference games, so will just stay clear of this one.

Memphis at SMU: This one is 67.5 and I have it at 61, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. The Mustangs do see an extra 1.6 points in their home games, while Memphis plays to 1.2 fewer points when they’re on the road, but the Tigers also see a reduction of 4.7 points in the conference games, while SMU sees .7 fewer points in their conference games. Memphis takes a huge drop-off when they take to the road.

END OF FEB. 25 PICKS

We dropped our two totals plays on Sunday to fall to 55-44-4 with these plays, with two 3-point plays in the final 28 seconds of the Stanford game the difference between an 0-2 effort and a split. We did win the other two college plays for a split and also split the two NBA plays for an overall 3-3 day.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

West Virginia at Texas: The number here is 59.5 and I have it at 58, so not enough of an advantage to have a regular play. West Virginia sees 1.0 fewer points of their away games, while Texas sees a decrease of .3 points in the first half when they’re at home. The Mountaineers score 2.6 more points than foes allow, while the Longhorns score .6 fewer points. West Virginia holds teams to 4.2 fewer points than they average in the first half, while Texas limits teams to 3.7 fewer points than they score. Both teams see a slight reduction in scoring in conference games, although a little of that has to do with other defensive minded teams, so would lean to the under if I had to play this one, especially with Texas allowing 45 in the first half at West Virginia.

Louisville at Florida State: The first half total here is 66, which is where I have it, so this one becomes a pass. Louisville is a lower-scoring team on the road, playing to 2.7 fewer first half points of their road games, but the Seminoles score and allow more in their home games, seeing an increase of 7.2 points when they’re at home. Both teams score more and allow fewer points than their foes have averaged.

Nebraska at Illinois: The number here is 68 and I also have it at 68. Neither team shows much of a disparity in their home or away total scoring. The Huskers can score, but they can’t really stop anybody and with Illinois seeing a reduction of 4.4 points in their conference games, this one is a bit of a toss up.

Oklahoma State at Kansas: The total here is 63 and I have it at 60, but think one becomes a quick pass on the basis of the Jayhawks seeing 5.3 more points in the first half of their home games. Hard to predict how much of a letdown the team will have after beating Baylor, so no real interest in trying to to guess how this one will play out.

END OF FEB. 24 PICKS

Still at 55-42-4 with our first half totals plays after staying away yesterday and will have two plays for today, as we basically bookend the schedule with plays in the first and last games of the evening. We’re looking at a few of the big early matchups, along with the 3 p.m. and later games today and it’s back to just a four-game slate for Monday.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Penn State at Indiana: The total in this one is 67.5 and I have it at 72, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. The teams played a 64-49 game the first time they met, and it was 28-28 at the half, which may have helped keep this one a little bit lower than I was expecting, but if the teams hold true to form, I think this one has a decent chance of getting there with the over. The Nittany Lions average 37.7 points in the first half overall and score 39.3 points in the first half of their road games, while their defense allows 31.2 points in the first half, although that number climbs to 33.8 points on the road. The Hoosiers score 36.4 points in the first half and that increases to 40.6 points at home, while their defense allows 33.7 points at home, compared to 33.3 points overall.

Penn State scores 5.5 more points than teams allow, while the Hoosiers score 4.6 more points in the first half, while the teams combine to hold teams to 3.2 fewer points than they score. The two do combine to see 2.6 fewer points in conference games, which isn’t all that surprising given the styles of play in the conference and the fact that there are some pretty solid defensive teams in the Big Ten.

Stanford at Washington State: The total here is 63 and I have it at just 56, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. The first time the two teams met we saw 64 points in the first half, with the Cardinal scoring 46 of them, so expecting to see a better defensive effort out of the Cougars in this one. They’ll probably score a little more than 18 points in the first half, but still should have trouble against Stanford’s defense, which allows 38.3% shooting on the road this season. As bad as Stanford’s 46-18 halftime lead loos, it was actually a better showing for the Cougars than the previous meeting, when the Cardinal led 52-15 at halftime. Have to believe Washington State looks to slow this one down and play with a little pride. The Cougars do see 5.4 fewer points in their conference games.

END OF FEB. 23 PICKS

A 2-1 night last night with our first half totals, sneaking in there by a point in the Iona game and losing the Quinnipac game with two seconds remaining in the half. We moved to 55-42-4 with our first half totals, which haven’t been released for the majority of games yet. But did want to get this posted and will come back with our plays, as we do from time to time. We have our usual 9 p.m. and later games, but at the bottom tacked on some of the bigger TV games today, such as Kansas at Baylor, Florida at Kentucky, etc.

We waited for lines to get posted and now that they have, we’ll just have a couple of leans today, but no plays and we really don’t have any games that fit our criteria even though we looked at more games than we usually do, which is how it goes at times.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Kansas at Baylor: An early start for this one and the total is 59.5 and I have it at 58, so a little too close to our projection for a play. If I had to play this one, it’s probably easier to make a case for the under, as Kansas sees 5.5 fewer points for their road games, while Baylor sees an increase of .4 points in the first half of their home games. Both teams are lower scoring in conference games and the two teams combined score 7.9 more points than their opponents allow on average, but hold foes to 11.9 fewer points, so I’d lean to the under, but it doesn’t qualify as a regular play.

Georgetown at DePaul: This one is 69.5 and the overall numbers have it at 73, but with the Hoyas seeing 2.5 fewer points on the road and 1.5 fewer points in the first half of their conference games, we’ll just stay clear of this one.

Loyola Marymount at Portland: This one is 60, which is right where we have it, although both teams are in their lower-scoring locations and also see fewer points in their conference games.

Bakersfield at Seattle: Another game where our overall numbers is the same as the total, but this time it’s a case of both teams being in their higher-scoring location and Seattle does see more points in the first half of their conference games, but Bakersfield sees fewer.

LSU at South Carolina: Interesting one here, as the total is 73.5 and the overall numbers are calling for 71 points, but the Tigers see 4.2 more points in the first half of their away games. The teams combine to score 9.6 more points in the first half than their foes allow, while holding teams to .4 fewer points than they average. Both teams see the slightest of scoring increases in conference games, so can’t blame anybody who likes the over here, but will just stay away from this one.

END OF FEB. 22 PICKS

We split our plays here last night and got caught up in looking at the games this morning and not writing, so am publishing all of the numbers and coming right back with a look at some of the games.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Niagara at Fairfield: This one is just 59 and I have it at 53, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams see slightly more points in tonight’s location, with Niagara seeing an increase of .7 points and Fairfield seeing an additional .8 points when they’re at home, but both teams also see a fairly significant reduction in scoring in conference games compared to their overall scoring stats. Niagara is seeing 3.9 fewer points per game in conference play, while Fairfield sees a decrease of 1.6 points in their conference games.

Monmouth at Marist: It’s going to be more of the same here, as the number came out at 64 and I have it at just 55, so will take the under in this one. Monmouth does see a scoring decrease of 1.5 points when they take to the road, while Marist sees 1.1 more points in their home games. Both teams have slight scoring decreases in their conference games, although between the two teams it’s just one point.

Rider at Iona: The raw numbers are calling for the under 69.5 in this one, but both teams are in higher-scoring locations, with Iona seeing an additional 2.3 more points in their home games and Rider seeing .9 more points when they’re away. Iona also sees a slight scoring increase in conference games so will stay clear of this one.

Canisius at Quinnipac: This one is at 69.5 and I have it 65. There isn’t really much of a difference in the scoring of both teams regardless of location and both teams also see a slight reduction in scoring in conference games, so will go ahead and take the under here, as I don’t think either team matches their shooting percentages from the first meeting of the year.

END OF FEB. 21 PICKS

Was on the wrong side here last night, as we went 1-1 in college hoops, taking it easy on what I thought was a bit of a tough card. Things look a little better tonight, so we’ll have two plays here and single plays on the other two articles. We fell to 52-40-4 for the season last night.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Stanford at Washington: The total here came out at 62 and I have it at just 54, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. Both teams see slightly fewer points in tonight’s location, with Stanford seeing .3 fewer points in the first half of their away games and the Huskies seeing .9 fewer points at home. Both teams are also lower-scoring teams in conference play and Stanford averages .4 fewer points than foes allow in the first half, but do limit the opposition to seven fewer points. While the Huskies do score 1.7 more points in the first half than foes allow, they do limit teams to 3.4 fewer points than they score.

Grand Canyon at Seattle: The total here is 69 and the overall numbers are calling for 64 points, but with both teams scoring a little more than 2.0 more points in their respective locations, this one will just be a pass. Both teams are within a point of what the opposition scores or allows, so this one is a pretty tough game to call after factoring in the scoring difference based on being home or away.

Montana State at Portland State: I’m calling for 74 points in the first half of this one and the number is just 69.5, but Montana State does see a scoring decrease of 3.7 points when they take to the road. The Vikings do see 1.6 more points in their home games, but with both teams being slightly lower-scoring in conference games, will just stay away from this one.

UCLA at Utah: The total here is 63.5 and I have it at 60, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. The Bruins see 3.9 fewer points in the first half when they’re on the road and also see 1.6 fewer points in their conference games. Utah does see a scoring increase of 3.4 points of their home games, but if look into it a little bit more, you’d see they scored 70 in the first half against Mississippi Valley State and 55 against Central Arkansas, so those home numbers may be a little misleading. In conference games, the Utes see 4.6 fewer points than in their overall first half scoring.

END OF FEB. 20 PICKS

We moved to 52-39-4 with our first half totals on Tuesday and just one game today, as there are a few games that have 3 point or greater differences, but can normally find something to keep you off of them or at least give you reason to stop and take another look at the game.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Kansas State at Texas Tech: This one is 60.5 and I have it at 57, so would lean to the under and that would probably be beneficial to our first half side play in the game, but not really eager to play this one. Kansas State sees a little more scoring in the first half when they’re the away team and Texas Tech averages more points than their opponents allow, but will stay away here.

Duke at North Carolina State: I have this one at 75 and the number came out at 71, but with the Wolfpack seeing 2.5 fewer points when they’re at home and the Blue Devils playing to .9 fewer points in the first half on the road, will just skip over this one.

Indiana at Minnesota: This one is 63.5 and I have at 68, but it becomes a quick pass due to Indiana seeing 7.1 fewer points in the first half of their road games. The Hoosiers are also seeing 2.1 fewer points in their conference games, so no interest in this one.

Wyoming at Utah State: The total here is 60 and I have it at 55, so going to take a shot on the under. Wyoming is seeing 4.5 fewer points of their road games, while Utah State sees 1.2 more points when they’re at home. Utah State does average 1.3 more points than their opponents allow in the first half, but the Cowboys hold teams to 3.2 fewer points than they average. Offensively, the Cowboys are brutal, scoring seven fewer points than their opponents allow, while Utah State holds teams to 5.1 fewer points than they average. With Utah State seeing 4.5 fewer points in conference games, will take the under even though it’s a low number.

Tulsa at Houston: Here’s one I really wrestled with, as I have it at 58 and the total is 61. Both teams are in slightly lower-scoring locations, but a little leery due to the Cougars being in a revenge mode and they may come out and look to take it to Tulsa right from the start. If I had to play the game, I’d still lean to the under, but it’s one I’ll just stay clear of.

Long Beach at Irvine: Probably the most interesting of the game on the schedule, this one is 65.5 and I have it at 69. Both teams see quite a bit more scoring in tonight’s location, with Long Beach seeing 3.4 more points in their road games and Irvine seeing 4.9 more points in their home games, but both teams also see quite a bit less scoring in conference games, with Long Beach seeing 4.0 fewer points and Irvine seeing 3.5 fewer points, so I’ll sit back and see how this one plays out. It was 25-23 at the half when the teams met earlier this year.

END OF FEB. 19 PICKS

Back to the grind today, as we’ll have a couple of plays on today’s card, which isn’t necessarily a huge one, but there are some pretty solid matchups on tap. We held at 50-39-4 for the season with a pass on Monday.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Ball State at Buffalo: The first time these two met the game went well over the total and a lot of that had to do with the 48-34 score at halftime, with Ball State leading. Ball State is more of a defensive team, so a little surprising to see them score than many points in 20 minutes considering they average 69.5 points per game. This one is at 70.5 and I have it at 63. Ball State averages 1.6 fewer points in the first half of their away games, while Buffalo sees an increase of .2 points at home. Combined, the two teams average 1.1 more points than their foes allow, while they combine to hold teams to 4.7 fewer points than they score. Ball State does see 1.4 more first half points in their conference games, but Buffalo makes up for it with 1.4 fewer points in conference play, so will take the under 70.5 in this one.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia: The total on this one is 64 and I have it at 58 with the overall numbers. Oklahoma State sees the same number of points in their away games as they do at home, while the Mountaineers sees the slightest of increases in their home games at +.9. The teams combined to score 3.8 more points in the first half than their foes allow, but do hold the opposition to 7.6 fewer points than they average. With both teams also seeing several points less in their conference games will take a shot on the under 64 in this one.

Colorado State at UNLV: The total here is 69.5 and I have it at 63 and both teams are in their lower-scoring locations, but will end up staying away as both teams have seen an increase in scoring in their conference games, with Colorado State seeing 3.0 more points in the first half and the Rebels seeing 1.3 more points. Still would lean to the under, but probably not one I’ll end up playing although it a little bit tempting.

END OF FEB. 18 PICKS

A 1-0-1 night on Sunday, so we move to 50-39-4 for the season, but are now faced with just a four-game schedule. We do have several differences of more than three points between the total and our projections, but closer look at the games will raise some red flags, so no official plays today. We’ll take a look at each one and see if we can’t uncover something that might help you should you decide to go ahead and wager on the games.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Xavier at St. Johns: This one is 66 and I have it at 65, so too close for comfort. Both teams are lower-scoring in tonight’s location, with Xavier seeing a decrease of 1.6 points in the first half of their away games and the Red Storm seeing a decrease of 1.3 points. Both teams combined to score 4.5 more points than their opponents allow in the first half, while allowing 6.0 fewer points. Xavier sees a scoring decrease of 1 points in conference games, while St. John’s sees 3.9 fewer points and will be without one of their better outside shooters in this one, so could see a slight case to take the under here, but no real interest.

North Carolina at Notre Dame: The total here is 69.5 and I have it at 66 with the overall numbers, but both teams see slightly more scoring in their respective locations tonight. The Tar Heels see 1.2 more points in their road games and Notre Dame sees a scoring increase of 1.4 points at home. There is a slight decrease in conference scoring by both teams and am going to stay away and not force the issue in this one.

Iowa State at Kansas: This one is 67.5 and I have it at 64, although both teams are in higher scoring situations. Iowa State sees 2.0 more points in the first half of their away games, while Kansas sees 4.8 more points at home. We did see 72 points in the first half when the two teams met. Both teams also play several points less in their conference games than their overall numbers, so we’re getting some conflicting opinions in this one and probably best just to stay away.

Idaho at Portland State: The total here is 70 and I have it at 73, but the Vandals see 1.4 fewer points in their away games, while the Vikings see 2.0 more points at home. Both teams are lower-scoring in their conference games, however, so this is another case of conflicting trends. There were 80 points scored in the first half when these teams met earlier this season, but just 53 points in the second half. No real value in this one from a totals standpoint.

END OF FEB. 17 PICKS

Good night here on Saturday, as we won all three plays but did split the two sides plays for a 4-1 night. A couple of bigger differences in between our projections and the totals, so we’ll look at those games and go into a little detail on why we’re passing or playing. We’re now 49-39-3 with these plays.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Memphis at UConn: We have a three-point difference right out of the gate, but a few conflicting numbers in this one. The Huskies do average 1.8 more points in their home games and both teams do score more than their opponents allow on average, although they also allow fewer points. We have seen both teams score fewer points in their conference games, with the Tigers seeing a pretty big drop. There were 61 points scored in the first half when the teams met last month, but with the Huskies shooting a dismal 33.8% not so sure that happens again. The teams combined for 44 turnovers, which also limited the number of shots. If I had to play, would still lean that way due to the conference scoring, but will pass.

Evansville at Drake: A huge difference between our projection and the number here, as we have six more points scored than the total, but both teams with significant scoring drops in conference games. The Purple Aces see 4.4 fewer points in their conference games, while Drake sees 2.4 fewer points in the first half of their conference games. Drake does see 3.5 more points of their home games, but another case where conference scoring will make this a lean, but nothing more.

San Diego State at Boise: This one is at 66 and I have it at 61, so will play the under in this one. The Aztecs see .2 fewer points in their away games while Boise State sees .5 fewer points when they’re the home team. There isn’t a huge difference in their conference scoring compared to their overall numbers, with San Diego State seeing .1 more points and Boise seeing .7 fewer. San Diego State scores 2.0 more points in the first half than their foes allow, but limit teams to 6.9 fewer points, while Boise scores .8 more than foes allow and hold teams to 1.1 fewer points.

Quinnipac at Rider: This one is 69.5 and I have it at 64, so will take the under in this one, as well. Quinnipac sees .4 more points in their road games, while Rider sees 1.1 fewer points in the first half when they’re at home. Both teams do allow more points than their foes average, but both also score less. With both teams also playing lower-scoring conference games, have to believe the under is the way to go in this one.

Arizona State at California: I have this one at 60 and the number is 63, but the Bears do see 1.4 more points in their home games, while ASU sees 2.4 fewer points in their away games. California does see a pretty big drop in scoring in their conference games, so lean to the under in this one, but that’s about it.

END OF FEB. 16 PICKS

We moved to 46-39-3 with these plays on Friday and now will take a look a look at the 9 p.m. and later plays for Saturday, which is pretty much our standard operating procedure.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Colorado at Oregon State: The total on this one is 63.5 and I have it at 59, so will take a shot on the under here, even though Colorado has beaten me in the first half a couple of times this season. The Buffs see 2.5 fewer points in the first half of their road games, while Oregon State sees .7 fewer points in the home games. Colorado scores .9 more points than foes allow in the first half, but they do hold teams to 5.2 points under their scoring average. The Beavers score 2.6 more points than teams allow, while holding them to 2.0 fewer points than they score. The teams are on opposite ends of the conference scoring spectrum, with Colorado seeing 3.4 more points in conference games than their overall scoring, but Oregon State sees 3.6 fewer points in their conference games.

Utah State at Fresno State: Much like the game directly above, this one is also at 63.5 and I have this one at 59, as well, so once again will take a shot on the under in this one. Utah State sees -1.0 points in the first half of their road games, while Fresno sees 1.4 more points when they’re at home. Utah State scores 1.3 more points than opponents allow in the first half, although that’s countered by Fresno holding teams to 1.9 fewer points than they average in the first half. Offensively, Fresno State scores 2.2 fewer points than teams allow, while Utah State holds teams to 4.9 fewer points than they average. Both teams are seeing a reduction in conference scoring, with Utah State seeing 4.4 fewer points in the first half and Fresno seeing 1.2 fewer points.

Arizona at Stanford: The total on this one is again 63.5 and once again we’ll be on the under in this one, as we have a projection of 56 points. The wildcats see .5 fewer points in their road games, while Stanford sees an increase of .3 points when they’re at home. The Wildcats do average 4.7 more points in the first half than their foes allow, but also limit teams to 4.7 fewer points than they average on the defensive side of things. The Cardinal average .2 fewer points offensively than opponents have allowed, but do limit teams to 7.9 fewer points than they average. In Pac-12 games, Arizona sees 2.4 fewer points and Stanford sees a slight reduction of .2 points.

END OF FEB. 15 PICKS

We’ve dropped the last three here to fall to 45-39-3, as our 2-2 night in college hoops was 0-2 with these two plays and we won our two side plays, so was able to keep damage to a minimum. I expected a little better but Northridge went cold in the tail end of the first half, scoring just 11 points in the final 10 minutes of the half, even though they scored 81 for the game, which is how it goes at times. Just one play today on a bit of an ugly card from a handicapping perspective.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Quinnipac at St. Peters: This one is 63.5 and I have it at 59 with the overall numbers, so will go ahead and play the under in this one. Quinnipac does see .8 more points in the first half when they’re on the road and St. Peters sees .9 fewer points. Both teams score less than their opponents allow for the first half, with Quinnipac scoring 1.1 fewer points and St. Peters scoring 3.1 fewer points than foes allow. On defense, Quinnipac allows .5 more points than their opponents average, while St. Peters holds teams to .8 fewer points than they average for the first half. Quinnipac has seen .5 fewer points in conference games compared to their overall scoring averages, while St. Peter’s is even.

Monmouth at Canisius: We do have a four-point difference in our projection and the total in this one, but Canisius does see slightly more points at home and averages 1.6 more first half points than their opponents allow for the season. Both teams allow slightly more points than their foes have averaged, so will stay away from this one.

Fairfield at Marist: No real desire to play under 53.5 in this one even though I have a projection of 50 points. Marist does see an additional 2.5 points of their home games and it’s hard to play under such a low number, although these two are bad enough offensively to bring the under home.

Manhattan at Iona: This one is 63 and I have it at 59, but Iona sees 3.8 more points in their home games, which is enough to keep me away right there. We’ve gone under in Iona road games several times, but they’re a different team at home. Both teams also score a bit more in conference play.

END OF FEB. 14 PICKS

We fell to 45-37-3 with these plays last night in a strange game that looked pretty good until a two-minute burst late in the first half, which is how things go at times. As we’ll do on occasion when trying to get the picks out as early as possible, we’ll post the two plays and then come back and add a bit more detail and some notes to the other games.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Cal Poly at Northridge: The total on this one is 71 and my basic numbers have it at 73, but both teams are in their higher-scoring locations, so will take a shot on the over in this one. Cal Poly defeated Northridge earlier this season in a game where Northridge stunk from the field and both teams were brutal from 3-point range. The Cal Poly defense leaves a bit to be desired away from home.

Chicago State at Bakersfield: This one is 61.5 and I have it at 67, so will take the over in this one. Both teams are pretty close to their overall averages in tonight’s location, with Chicago State seeing .6 fewer points in the first half when they’re on the road and Bakersfield seeing .6 more points. Think Bakersfield can come close to 40 in this one.

Southern Utah at Sacramento State: The total here is 56 and the overall numbers have it at 53, although it’s a bit difficult to take under such a low number, but if anybody can play a low-scoring first-half, it’s Sacramento State, who allows just 22.9 points in the first half of their home games and just 26.2 in the first half of all of their games. But with Southern Utah playing a little higher-scoring on the road, it’s just one to stay clear of.

Idaho at Eastern Washington: The total on this one is 70 and my overall numbers have it at 73, but the Vandals do see 1.4 fewer points of their road games, as they have shown a tendency to slow things down a little bit and it’s hard to fault them, as they’re not a bad squad for the first 20 minutes, but things tend to fall apart in the second half. Eastern does see a little more scoring when they’re at home, but don’t think Idaho will be a willing running partner with them, at least in the early going. Idaho may have to change things up in the second half if they get behind by a decent amount of points.

END OF FEB. 13 PICKS

 

We won both of our college totals last night to get back to 45-36-3 for the season, as we managed to sweep the board with a 6-0 day, which came right on the heels of a brutal 1-4 evening on Monday. Running a few minutes late after my computer decided to do 45 minutes of updates this morning, so we’ll get right to it and look at a couple of games, but have just one play.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Michigan at Northwestern: The total on this one is 64 and my overall numbers have it at 62, but this is one of those games where you really don’t want anything to do with the under, as both teams score a couple of more points per game in tonight’s location. Both teams are above average offensively in the first half compared to what their foes allow, but both also play better defense and hold the opposition to fewer points than they average, so this one becomes a quick pass.

Clemson at Pittsburgh: The line came out a little too low in this one, as the number is 57 and I have it at 56, but the Tigers ply to 3.7 fewer points on the road, while the Panthers are nearly identical in total points regardless of the location. Both teams score fewer points than the opposition allows in the first half and both are at least 3.5 points better defensively in the first half, so would lean to the under if I absolutely had to play this one.

Irvine at Riverside: The total here is 60 and I have it at 63, but Irvine plays to 2.8 fewer points when they’re on the road and Riverside is -.4 at home, so this one becomes a quick pass on the basis of home and away scoring tendencies.

Fresno State at San Jose State: This one is 67.5 and I have it at 64 with the overall numbers, but it’s more of the same here, as Fresno sees 1.4 fewer points in their away games, so will just stay clear of this one.

Nevada at UNLV: This one came out at 70.5 and I have it at 66, so will take the under in this one. Nevada sees .6 fewer points when they’re on the road and UNLV plays to 1.7 fewer points in their home games, where they turn the defense up a little bit. Nevada does score more than foes allow in the first half, as does UNLV, but both teams also hold the opposition to fewer points than they average, so think the under 70.5 has a chance, so will be on the under in this one.

END OF FEB. 12 PICKS

Brutal day in college hoops on Monday, so will look to get untracked with a bit larger of a schedule. As usual, we’ll look at the later games, which for tonight will be the ones that start at 8 p.m. or later and we fell to 43-36-3 with our first half totals plays.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Michigan State at Illinois: The number in this one is 66 and the numbers have it at 62, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. The Spartans are averaging 34.5 points in the first half, although that number drops to 30.1 when they take to the road and they also allow 30.1 points in the first half when they’re the visiting team. MSU has shown a slight decrease of .2 points in conference games compared to overall performance.

Illinois averages 35.5 points in the first half and that climbs to 37.4 points at home, although their defense improves from allowing 29.7 points to allowing 28.3 points at home. The Illini have gotten a little more defensive in conference play, scoring 4.3 fewer points and allowing .9 fewer points compared to their overall averages.

Notre Dame at Virginia: The total here is just 56.5, but I have it even lower at 51 and both teams play lower-scoring games in tonight’s location, with the Irish seeing 1.8 fewer points away from home and Virginia seeing 2.7 fewer points in the games at home. The Irish average just 30.4 points per game on the road in the first half, while allowing 34.1 on the road and the Cavs average 27.1 points at home and allow 21.8. This is a game I wanted to take under the total, but the one thing that scares me is conference scoring, where Notre Dame has seen an additional 3.9 points in the first half and the Cavs have seen 1.1 more points in the first half. Definitely lean to the under, but not quite enough to make it a play in this spot.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State: This one is 61.5 and I have it at 56 and both teams are pretty close to averaging the same number of points at home or on the road. Both teams are within a point of their overall numbers compared to home or away numbers and both average pretty close to what their foes allow. Each team does hold the opposition to more than 2 fewer points than they average, so will take a shot on the under 61.5 in this one.

END OF FEB. 11 PICKS

We dropped both our college totals plays Sunday, but did win the two side plays for an overall split in college hoops. Still, always a bit of a surprise when the totals don’t at least split, as they were our best play, although the full game sides are pretty much right there with them, and the first sides still bringing up the rear. We dropped to 43-35-3 with our first half totals plays.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Florida State at Duke: This one came out at 70 and I have it at 72, but really want no part of the over in this one, due to Florida State’s tendency to play lower-scoring games when they’re away from home. The Seminoles are seeing 8.1 fewer points in the first half of their road games this season and 2.0 fewer points in their conference games. The Blue Devils see .6 more points in the first half of their home games, so not a big difference there, and Duke sees 1.2 more points in their conference games.

Portland State at Northern Colorado: This one also came out at 70 and I have it at 74, so will take a shot on the over in this one. While I don’t expect Portland State to shoot 50% from the field once again, I do think Northern Colorado will be a bit better from the field than they were in the first meeting between the two. The Vikings score 4.7 more points in the first half than their foes allow, while surrendering 2.6 more points in the first half than foes score. Northern Colorado scores 1.3 more points in the first half than foes allow, while allowing 1.0 fewer points than foes score. Neither team has a great difference in scoring at home or on the road.

Baylor at Texas: This one is 59.5 and I have it at 57, with both teams seeing slightly more points in today’s location. Baylor does score 3.2 more points than foes allow in the first half, while both teams are quite a bit better than average on defense, with Baylor allowing 6.3 fewer points than foes allow and Texas allowing 4.1 fewer points.

TCU at Texas Tech: This one also came out at 59.5 and I have it at 60, but with both teams in their lower-scoring locations this one is a quick pass. Both teams score slightly more more first-half than points than their foes allow, while holding teams to several points less. Both teams also see fewer points in conference games.

END OF FEB. 10 PICKS

We won the first half totals play, but dropped the first half side play on the same game, as we move to 43-33-3 with our totals plays and we’ll stick to the standard formula of looking at some of the games with bigger differences between our projected score and the line and why or why not we’re on a particular game.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Cincinnati at UConn: Right out of the gate we have a 3-point difference between our number and the total, but with both teams playing in their higher-scoring locations will stay off the total in this one.

Iona at Fairfield: We’ve taken the under in several Iona games and today will be no different as our projection of 56 is 4.5 points less than the total. Iona sees 2.3 fewer points in their road games, while Fairfield has a -1.3 at home. Iona does score .2 more first half points than their foes allow, but Fairfield does hold teams to 3 fewer points than they average. Iona allows 2.6 more points than teams average in the first half but Fairfield scores 5.6 fewer points. With Fairfield seeing 1.7 fewer points in conference games, will go ahead and pull the trigger on this one.

Manhattan at Quinnipac: We have a 4.5-point difference in this one and both teams are in their lower-scoring locations, but Manhattan is scoring 3 more points in conference games compared to their overall numbers. Lean to the under, but not sure if I’ll end up playing this one or not, so will pass here.

Tulsa at UCF: We have a difference of three points in this one and both teams play to .3 fewer points in today’s location, so will take the under 59 in this spot. Both teams average fewer points than their foes allow for the first half, and both hold teams to at least three fewer points than they average. With both teams seeing fewer points in conference play, think we have a decent shot at getting the under in this one.

Northwestern at Rutgers: The total here is 61 and I have it at 58 and both teams are in their lower scoring locations. Both teams score about a point more than their opponents allow in the first half, but Northwestern holds teams to 2.7 fewer points and Rutgers allows 5.7 fewer points. But with both teams seeing slightly more points in conference games will likely stay away from this one.

END OF FEB. 9 PICKS

We moved to 42-33-3 with these plays last night and have one play for tonight, as the majority of the games are pretty close to the odds. Want to get up our play and will come right back and follow that up with a look at some of the other games, including the Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s contest.

There weren’t that many games where we had at least a three-point difference between our projection and the total and those that did had a few red flags.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

UCLA at Arizona: Don’t really like using the same game for a first-half side play and a first-half total, but think it’s warranted in this case, as the total in this one came out at 64, while my overall numbers have it at 62. The Bruins see nearly four fewer points in their away games, however, while Arizona also sees a slight reduction in points at home, so will take a shot on the under in this one.

Irvine at UCSB: The total on this one is 64 and my overall numbers have it at 67, which would indicate a look to the over, but Irvine sees 2.8 fewer points when they’re on the road, while Santa Barbara sees an additional 1.7 points in front of the home fans. Irvine does score 2.5 more points in the first half than their foes allow, but UCSB holds teams to 3.2 fewer points in the first half than they score, so the strength of Irvine plays into the strength of UCSB.

Gonzaga at St. Mary’s: The total in this one is 70 and my overall numbers have it at 74, but both teams are in their lower-scoring locations, with the Zags seeing two fewer points when they’re away from home and St. Mary’s seeing a slight reduction in scoring when they’re at home. When the teams met in the conference tournament last year, St. Mary’s was able to slow things down and lead 27-24 at halftime, so they may try to slow the tempo down once again. The other two games between the two saw 70 and 73 points, so definitely a tough one to make a stand on and it should be a decent game to watch.

END OF FEB. 8 PICKS

One point too many in the UCLA game, so we have to settle for the split and a 41-33-3 record entering Friday’s relatively small slate of games. We’ll do our usual and look at some of those games where we have some differences between our projections and the total and why we’re playing or passing.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Cal IrvineCal Poly6467
St. Mary'sSanta Clara6770
PortlandSan Francisco6564
PacificLoyola Marymount56.557
Rio Grande ValleyBakersfield6364
Montana StateSacramento State5756
Santa BarbaraRiverside58.557
Arizona StateUCLA66.561
Oregon StateOregon64.566

Harvard at Yale: As I mentioned in the sides article, this game scares me a little bit and the total does, as well. Even though our overall projection is three points under the total, both teams play higher-scoring games in this location, with Harvard seeing 2.6 more points in their away games and Yale seeing 3.3 more points when they’re playing in front of the home fans.

Princeton at Cornell: This is one that I really wrestled with, as our projection is 7.5 points higher than the total. Princeton is also a much higher-scoring team away from home, as the Tigers see 5.5 more points in the first half of their road games, but Cornell sees 5.1 fewer points in their games at home. Both teams do allow more points in the first half than their foes average, but Princeton has really turned up the defense in conference play. The Tigers are allowing just 27.7 points through their first four Ivy League games. One I’ll stay away from in this spot.

Niagara at Manhattan: Our projection is four points less than the total, but this is another case where both teams are in higher-scoring locations, as the two teams combined to see an average of 4.6 more points in their respective locations, so one I’ll just stay away from.

St. Peter’s at Marist: It’s more of the same in this one, as we’re 3.5 points under the total with our overall projection, but both teams are in their higher-scoring locations. Both teams are poor offensively, but that’s reflected in the low total. Another one where it’s probably best to just pass.

Iona at Quinnipac: This one came out at 69 and the overall numbers are calling for 63 points, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. Iona actually plays better defense on the road, while their scoring takes a drop, while Quinnipac scores more, but makes up for it by playing better defense and sees no change in home or away scoring. Iona does see 1.8 more points in conference games, although part of that is due to a 94-88 loss to Monmouth that saw 91 points scored in each half.

END OF FEB. 7 PICKS

 

We split our two plays on Wednesday and now stand at 40-32-3 for the season, so hopefully we can things moving back in the right direction. We’ll look at some of the games where we have a bit of a difference between our projection and the total and why or why not we’re on a particular game.

Road TeamHome TeamTotalProjected Points
Wright StateNorthern Kentucky6969
HarvardColumbia6663
QuinnipacFairfield59.556
MonmouthRider70.564
DartmouthCornell5862
SienaMarist60.560
PennYale65.563
PrincetonBrown64.567
DavidsonDayton6666
Texas StArlington61.564
Washington StWashington64.562

Sacramento State at Weber State: The total here is 57.5 and our overall numbers have it at 53, but Weber State does see an additional 2.8 in their home games compared to their overall numbers, while Sacramento State just sees .1 fewer points when they take to the road. While both teams average about 4 fewer points than foes are allowing in the first half, Sacramento State holds teams to 6.2 fewer points than they average. The number is low and it’s one of those games you can’t quite pull the trigger on.

Northern Colorado at Southern Utah: This one is 62.5 and the overall numbers have it at 66, but Northern Colorado sees .9 fewer points in the away games, while Southern Utah sees the same number of first-half points. Both teams score slightly more than foes allow in the first half, but both teams also allow fewer points than teams average.

Hawaii at UCSB: This one came out at 65 and the overall numbers have it at 62, but UCSB sees 1.4 more points in the first half when they’re at home. Hawaii sees three fewer points in the road games, but they’ve only played six so far this season, as teams are usually more than happy to make a trip to the island. The deciding factor here was that Hawaii has seen 4.8 more points in conference games compared to overall games, so will just stay away.

UC Davis at Irvine: This one is 65 and the overall numbers have it at 69, so will go ahead and take the over in this spot, as Irvine sees 3.7 more points in the first half of their home games. The teams just played a few weeks ago and saw 70 points in the first half, although it’s unlikely Irvine will shot 57.6% again. But it’s also unlikely, they’ll shoot just 20% from 3-point range. UC Davis can shoot the 3-pointer fairly well, while that’s been something of a sore spot for Irvine defensively, as they allow 35.3% for the year. We’ll need UC Davis to hit a few, but think they can do so.

UCLA at Arizona State: This one is 66 and the overall numbers have it at 60, so will take the under in this one. The Bruins have been a much different team on the road, as they see a reduction of 4.7 points in the first half of their away games. ASU sees 1.7 more points when they’re at home, but the Sun Devils are seeing 1.5 fewer points in conference games compared to overall, while UCLA sees 2.4 fewer points in conference games.

END OF FEB. 6 PICKS

 

A split last night, as well to 39-31-1 with our first half total plays. We looked at a few more games than usual today and will take a closer look at the games that have differences of at least three points on our overall numbers.

 

Illinois State vs. Missouri State: The number on this one came out at 63.5 and we have it at 60, but this will be a game we stay clear of. Illinois State sees 6.5 more points in the first half of their road games compared to their overall season averages, while Missouri State is pretty much the same regardless of location, seeing a scoring decrease of .1 points at home compared to overall scoring averages. Both teams are negative offensive teams, meaning they score less than their opponents average and both are slight positive teams on defense, meaning they allow slightly fewer points than their foes score on average.

North Carolina State at Miami: This one came out at 66.5 and the overall numbers have it at 70 and we’re going to go ahead and take the over in this one. While the Hurricanes see 1.4 fewer points in their home games, the Wolfpack see 3.6 more points scored on the road compared to their overall averages. NC State is a +4.6 on offense, meaning they score 4.6 more first half points than foes allow, while the ‘Canes are +1.4. Both are pretty average on defense.

Bradley at Drake: This one came out at 63.5 and I have it at 71, so will go ahead and take the over in this one. Both teams are slightly higher-scoring teams in tonight’s location, with Drake seeing close to 5 more first-half points and both are positive offensive teams, so like this one a bit.

UNLV at Utah State: This one came out at 66 and I have it at 61, but both teams see more points in their respective locations, with UNLV seeing 1.5 more first half points on the road and Utah State seeing 1.7 more points of their home games. Both are positive teams on offense and defense, so while the under looks a little enticing just due to the overall difference, will go ahead and pass on this one.

Riverside at Fullerton: This one is 62.5 and I have it at 59, but Fullerton does see an additional 3.3 points in the first half of their home games, while Riverside sees .9 more points when they are on the road. Both are negative offensive teams, while Fullerton is a negative defensive team, meaning they allow more points than their opponents average.

END OF FEB. 5 PICKS

 

We fell to 38-30-3 with our first-half college totals on Monday, which was the order of the day in an overall dismal effort. Will look to be untracked here Tuesday and we’ll look at the late games, which is pretty much our standard procedure.

We’ll go ahead and use the first-half numbers from Bovada this morning, as they’re the first to post both sides and totals.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech: The number on this one came out at 64.5, which is 2.5 points less than our overall projection of 67 points, but this one is a case of both teams being lower scoring teams in today’s location. The Sooners see a reduction of 1.5 first-half points when they are on the road, while the Red Raiders see a drop-off of 2.6 points when they play in front of the home fans, making this one a pretty easy game to pass on.

Colorado State at Fresno State: The total on this one came out at 67 and the overall numbers are calling for just 61 points, so going to go ahead and take the under in this one. Colorado State sees their scoring in the first half drop from 33.8 to 30.2 when they take to the road. The Rams do allow 1.2 more points in the first half on the road, although that isn’t enough to make up for the drop-off in scoring. Fresno State scored 1.9 more points in the first half at home but they do allow 1.5 fewer points.

Missouri at Texas A & M: The total here is pretty low at 58 points, but I have it even lower, so will go ahead and take the under in this one, as well. Both teams play decent defense, but the Tigers are a little bit better offensively, even though they only average 66 points per game and 31.8 points in the first half. When the Tigers take to the road, Missouri averages just 27 points, or 4.8 fewer points than their overall numbers, while allowing 33.8 points, which is 3.1 more points than their overall average. But Texas A & M might not be the best team to take advantage of the increase points allowed by Missouri, as the Aggies score just 25.1 points in the first half and they score even less at home, where they’ve averaging 24.7 points. The Aggies allow 29.9 points in the first half overall and actually allow a little more at home than they do on the road, but think points will be tough to come by here.

END OF FEB. 4 PICKS

We split our two college totals on Sunday and now have just five games on today’s slate and the majority of them are pretty close to our projections, so we’ll see what we can come up or today.

North Carolina at Florida State: The total here is 67.5 and the overall numbers are calling for a projection of 67 points, so no real edge in this one. The home and away numbers are calling for 77 points, as the Seminoles are a much higher scoring team at home, but if you look at just the ACC scoring numbers, we get a call of 63 points, so with the numbers all over the pace, will stay clear of this one.

Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona: The total here is 72.5 and my overall numbers have this one at 76, while the home and away numbers are calling for 75 points. If we look at just Big Sky Conference scoring numbers, the projection would be for 70 points, but that is a bit misleading, as the Big Sky scoring is slightly less than the overall college basketball scoring numbers. NAU has played Sacramento State twice in its 10 conference games, so will take the over in this one.

Baylor at Kansas State: This is a game where all of the numbers are calling for the game to land under the number, but the overall numbers and home vs. away numbers are showing just two-point differences. The conference scoring averages are calling for just 52 points, but could see a bit more scoring in this one.

Texas at Kansas: Another game where the numbers are all over the place, with the overall numbers calling for a lean to the under and the home and away numbers leaning the other direction, so one I’ll just stay away from.

Idaho at Sacramento State: The number here is low and it’s another game where all of the numbers lean to the under, but the margins are pretty small, with the overall numbers at 54 points, the home and away numbers at 53 and the conference stats showing a projection of 55 points.

END OF FEB. 3 PICKS

Crappy day on Saturday, as we saw a few too many points in both our first-half totals, as well fall to 37-28-3 on the season. It was part of a 1-3 day in college hoops, with the lone winner coming in what has been our worst-performing play out of all five daily basketball plays, the first-half side plays, so need to bounce back a little bit here.

The majority of games have early starts today, as teams don’t want to be going head-to-head with the Super Bowl and playing in a half-filled arena isn’t the greatest thing for the players. We’ll look at our two plays in a bit more detail and as is the case more often than not, they’ll both be unders once again.

Quinnipac at Niagara: The total here came out at 68 and the overall numbers have this one at 62, while the home and away numbers also have this one at 62. For the season, Quinnipac scores 32.9 points and allows 32.2 points in the first half and they score 31.6 points on the road and allow 34.2. In conference games, Quinnipac is scoring 33.8 points and allowing 32.1

Niagara only scores 28.9 points in the first half and that actually drops a little bit to 28 points when they’re at home, despite a slightly better shooting percentage. Their defense allows .3 more points at home, although they hold teams to a lower-shooting percentage. In conference play, Niagara is averaging just 26.6 points and allowing 32.2 points, so will take a shot on this one to land under the number.

LaSalle at Duquesne: The total on this one is at 63 and I have it at 57 points with the overall numbers and that drops to 54 points if we look at home and away numbers.

LaSalle averages 31.3 points in the first half, while allowing 30.4, and scores a little bit more when they’re on the road, although their scoring has dropped to 27.1 points in conference games, while they’ve allowed 34.1.

Duquesne averages 32.4 points in the first half, but that drops to less than 30 points at home, where they also shoot a slightly higher percentage and they also turn up the defense a notch at home, holding foes to less than 40% from the field and just 27.6 points.

In conference games, Duquesne scores a little bit less and allows the same number of points, so think this one has a decent chance to sneak in there under the number.

END OF FEB. 2 PICKS

We won both games on Friday to move to 37-26-3 on the season and we were at the mercy of the sportsbooks a little bit this morning, as they resorted to the old trick of releasing the first-half numbers a little bit late on the evening games.

We’ll have two plays today and we’ll take a look at both of those games in a little detail, as we’re also facing time issues after the numbers came out so late.

Utah State at San Diego State: Going to take the under 61 in this one, although a few reservations, as Utah State isn’t a bad offensive team, but it was one of just two games where we had at least a three-point difference between our number and the total and the home and away numbers either remained steady or moved in the direction we wanted to see.

Utah State averages 35.7 points overall in the first half, which is well above the league average of 33.3, although that number drops all the way down to 30.9 points when they are on the road. Utah State also plays decent defense, as they allow 28.3 first-half points overall and 30.9 when they’re away from home. Utah State’s conference averages are a little lower than their overall numbers for the season, which is another bonus.

Nobody plays defense better than San Diego State when the Aztecs put their minds to it, as they allow 25.3 points at home and 25.0 points overall in conference games. San Diego State’s scoring is also down slightly in conference play.

Arizona State at Washington: Will take the under 64 in this one, as it also meets the same criteria of having at least a three-point difference from the overall numbers and then also has a bigger edge when looking at the home and away numbers.

Arizona State takes a pretty big scoring drop once they leave home, as they average 32.7 first half points overall, but just 27.7 when they take to the road. The defense allows a little more and their conference games also see a little less scoring.

The Huskies score about the same number of points at home as they do overall, but play better defense and are also seeing a bit of reduction in scoring in their conference games, so will go ahead and grab the under in this one.

END OF FEB. 1 PICKS

A few too many 3-pointers in the first half of the UCLA game Thursday knock us down to 35-26-3 on the season. A fair number of games on Friday, but not really a great handicapping card. We’ll be back with our new look for Saturday’s games.

Harvard at Penn: The total here is at 67.5 and the overall numbers are calling for 66 points, which is a little too close for comfort. Home and away numbers are projecting 65 points.

Akron at Kent: This one is 69.5 and the overall averages are calling for 69 points. The home and away numbers are projecting 76 points, but will have to pass with the overall numbers being so close to the total.

Bowling Green at Buffalo: The total here is 74 points and the overall numbers are calling for 75 points, which is right there, so a pass here, even though the home and numbers call for 77 points.

Columbia at Yale: The total in this one is 62 and I have it at 60 with the overall numbers. The home and away numbers are calling for 63 points and another pass.

Sienna at Iona: This one is 68.5 and I have right at 68, so another quick pass. The home and away numbers are calling for an over, however.

Dartmouth at Princeton: This one is 62.5 and I have it at 66, but with the home and away numbers calling for just 60 points, this one becomes a pass.

Marist at Niagara: The total here is 62 and both of my numbers are calling for 56 points, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under 62 in this spot.

Fairfield at Rider: The total on this one is 63 and I have it at 58 with both the overall and the home and away numbers, so will come back with another under and take the under 63 in this one for the final play of the day.

Manhattan at St. Peter’s: The total here is at 56 and I have it at 55 with the overall numbers, so too close for comfort even though the home and away numbers also like the under.

Cornell at Brown: The total here is 63 and the overall numbers are calling for 64 points, with home and away numbers with a 66-point projection.

Quinnipac at Canisius: The total here is 68 and the overall numbers have a projection of 66 points. The numbers climbs to 68 when using home and away scoring averages.

VCU at Rhode Island: This one is at 66 points and the overall numbers also call for 66 points. The home and away numbers are at 64.

Northern Kentucky at Green Bay: This one is at 73 and I have it at 74, but the home and away numbers are on the other side with a call of 72 points.

Wright State at Milwaukee: This one is at 71 points and I have 77 points with the overall numbers, but the home and away numbers are just 76, so will pass.

Oakland at Detroit: The total here is 65.5 and I have at 67 with the overall numbers, but just 61 with the home and away figures.

END OF JAN. 31 PICKS

 

A 2-1 night on Wednesday, losing a game that looked like it was going to come through (Arkansas) and winning one that didn’t look good (Boise St.) for much of the first half. That’s life with first-half college totals, however, as we’re now 35-25-3.

UCSB at Northridge: The total here is 69 and I have it at 71, which is a little too close to the number. The home and away numbers are calling for 73 points.

San Francisco at San Diego: The total in this one is 67.5 and I have it at 66, so another game that’s hovering too close to the total to get involved. The home and away numbers have it at 64.

Portland at St. Mary’s: Same story in this one, which came out at 63.5 and I have it at 65 with the overall numbers. The home and away numbers have it at 67.

Irvine at UC Davis: The total in this one is at 66 and my overall numbers are calling for 68 points. The home and away numbers are calling for 67 points.

Fullerton at Cal Poly: The total in this one is 62 and my overall numbers have it at 61, so once again, too close for comfort. Both teams are much lower-scoring in tonight’s location, so the home and away projection is just 52, but with the overall numbers just a point from the total, I’ll stay away from this one.

Loyola Marymount at Pacific: The total in this one is 58.5 and my overall numbers have it at 58. The home and away numbers are showing an output of 56 points.

Long Beach at Riverside: The total in this one is at 63, which is right where I have it with the overall numbers. Home and away numbers are calling for 66 points, so another pass.

Montana at Portland State: The total here is 71 and both sets of numbers are also calling for 71 points, so an obvious pass in this one.

Gonzaga at Santa Clara: The total in this one is 74.5 and my overall numbers have it at 78. But with the home and away numbers calling for 74 points, this one becomes another pass.

Colorado at UCLA: The number here is 63 and I have it at 56. The home and away numbers are calling for 55 points, so going to take a shot on the under in this one, as the Buffs have been a lower-scoring team at home.

Oregon State at Stanford: The number here is 62.5 and I have it at 57, but the home and away numbers move slightly in the wrong direction with a projection of 58, so nothing more than a lean in this one.

END OF JAN. 30 PICKS

We dropped to 33-24-3 last night as Rutgers made some shots in the early going and Purdue didn’t really bring the defense until the second half, but by then it was too late. A few plays for Wednesday.

South Carolina at Arkansas: The total on this one is 67 and my overall numbers have it at 63. Using home and away numbers yields a projection of 61 points, so will take the under in this one right out of the gate.

Marquette at Xavier: The total here is 68 and it’s a game that’s right in the middle of my numbers. The overall numbers are calling for 66 points, while the home and away numbers have a projection of 70 points.

Indiana at Penn State: Big difference in home and away numbers here, which will keep me away from this one, as the total is 67 and my overall numbers are calling for 74 points. The home and away figures have a projection of 65 points, so a pass in this spot.

Cal Baptist at Utah Valley: The total in this one is 68 and I have it at 65 with the overall numbers. Home and away numbers are calling for just 61 points, so will take a shot on the under 68 in this spot.

Baylor at Iowa State: The total here is 66.5 points and my overall numbers have it at 65, which is a little too close for comfort. Home and away stats are calling for 64 points.

Louisville at Boston College: The total on this one is 62.5 and I have it at 62, which is basically right at the number. The home and away numbers are calling for 58 points, and will stay away.

San Diego State at New Mexico: The total on this one is 68 and both sets of numbers are calling for 66 points, which is a little too close to the total and doesn’t really offer much in the way of value.

Nevada at Colorado State: The total in this one is 71 and my overall numbers have it at 68, but that climbs to 69 with the home and away numbers and is a move in the wrong direction.

San Jose State at Boise State: The total here is 72.5 and I have it at 68 with the overall numbers and 67 points with the home and away figures, so will take a shot on the under in this one.

Arizona State at Washington State: Tough one here, as the total is 67.5 and my overall numbers are calling for 64 points. The home and away numbers are projecting 62 points, but Wazzu is seeing more points in their home games and their conference games. Lean to the under, but most likely will just pass, which we’ll do here.

END OF JAN. 29 PICKS

We did move to 33-23-3 for the season on Monday, but dropped the other two college games and settled for a split in the NBA. Fair schedule of games for Tuesday, where we’ll look at the games that start at 8 p.m. or later, along with the FSU game.

Florida State at Virginia: The first half total in this one is just 53, while my overall numbers have it at 51. The home and away numbers are calling for even less scoring, with a projection of 44, but with the overall projection within two points of the total, will have to just stay away, although I’d lean to the under if I had to play it.

Purdue at Rutgers: The total is just 56.5 in this one and I was hoping for a 57, as my overall numbers are calling for 51 points, with the home and away projection checking in with 49 points. Will go ahead and take the under in this one, even though it’s a low total.

Virginia Tech at Miami: The total in this one is 65.5 and my overall numbers put this one at 64, so no real edge in this one. The home and away numbers are calling for 62 points.

Ohio at Northern Illinois: The total on this one is 63.5 and my overall numbers are calling 65 points, but looking at home and away numbers are calling for just 61 points, so with the total right in the middle of our two projections, is one I’ll stay away from.

Georgia at Missouri: The total in this one is 66 and my overall numbers are calling for the same score. The home and away averages are calling for 70 points, but can’t play this one due to the overall projection being right there.

Fresno at Air Force: The total in this one is 66 and my overall numbers are calling for 63 points, so they lean to the under, although the home and away numbers are right there at 66 points.

Auburn at Mississippi: Strange home and away splits in this one, as the total is at 66.5 points and my overall numbers are calling for 67 points, but the home and away numbers are projecting just 57 points to be scored.

Pittsburgh at Duke: The total here is 64.5 and I have a projection of 66 points. The home and away numbers are calling for a projection of just 60 points.

Butler at Georgetown: The total on this one is 66.5 and my overall numbers are calling for 66 points, with the home and away numbers pretty close with a projection of 65 points.

Utah State at Wyoming: This total is out at 59.5 and I made it 55, but the home and away numbers are calling for 57 points, so will just stay clear of this one.

END OF JAN. 28 PICKS

We won all five our college basketball plays Sunday to break a bit of a slump there in resounding fashion, but did drop both NBA games to put a damper on an otherwise decent 5-2 day overall. Our college totals weren’t easy, winning by one and by a half-point, but we’ve dropped our share of those types of games this season, as well, so we’ll take our 32-23-3 record into tonight, where we have just six regular games, along with some extra games, which don’t offer first-half betting at most shops.

Since we have such a small slate of games, was able to run the standard overall numbers that we use, along with home and away numbers and conference play numbers, so will see what we can come up with.

North Carolina at North Carolina State: The total in this one came out at 69 and my overall numbers have it at 70, so not a lot of room for error in this one. The home and away numbers are calling for 68 points and the conference numbers have a projection of 67 points, so will be staying clear of this one.

Sacramento State at Northern Arizona: This one is at 58 and my overall numbers are calling for 54 points, but the home and away numbers are calling for 58 points, which is right at the number. The conference numbers have it at 55, so probably a lean to the over, but that would be about it.

Wisconsin at Iowa: The game of the day has a total of 63 and my overall numbers are calling for 67 points, but the home and away numbers have a 63-point projection. Conference numbers are the highest of the three projections at 69 points, so much like last game, I’d lean to the over, but nothing more.

Kansas at Oklahoma State: The number in this one is 62.5 and this is the only game where all three numbers agree, as my overall projection is 59 points, while the home and away numbers are calling for 57 points and the conference numbers are at 53, so will take the under 62.5 in this one.

Northern Colorado at Eastern Washington: This one is at 69.5 and my overall numbers are calling for 76 points, with the home and away numbers even higher at 79. But using just conference numbers yields a projection of just 63 points, so will pass on this one.

Southern Utah at Idaho: This one is at 61.5 and I have it at 64 with the overall numbers and 66 with the home and away stats. But conference numbers are calling for 59 points, so another pass.

END OF JAN. 27 PICKS

We split our two college totals on Saturday to move to 30-23-3 on the season, as we need to get a run going. Fair slate for Sunday and we’ll start with the 3 p.m. games today.

Michigan State at Minnesota: The number here is 66, which seems a little bit on the high side, as I have it at 63. The Spartans are a lower-scoring team on the road, while Minnesota sees slightly more points when they’re at home.

Fordham at St. Louis: The number here is 56 and I have it at 53, but both teams are in their higher-scoring locations, with Fordham seeing an additional 3.5 points on the road compared to their overall numbers and St. Louis seeing two more points scored, so a pass.

Xavier at Creighton: This one came out at 67 and I have it at 69, so a little too close to the number. Creighton sees more points in their home games, while Xavier sees a little less scoring away from home.

Loyola-Chicago at Northern Iowa: The total here is 61.5 and I have it at 61. Northern Iowa scores more and allows more points at home, so a pass in this one.

Missouri State at Drake: The total here is 60.5 and I have it at 66. Drake is a much higher-scoring team in front of the home fans, so will take the over 61 in this game.

San Diego State at UNLV: This one came out at 62.5 and I made it 56. With both teams in slightly lower-scoring spots, will take the under 62.5 in this one for our final play of the day.

Evansville at Valparaiso: The total here is 67 and I set it at 70. Evansville sees 1.9 fewer points in their road games, while Valpo sees more than 3 fewer points, so will stay clear of this one.

UCLA at Oregon: The total on this one is 62 and I made it 61. The Bruins do see a significant drop in scoring when they’re on the road, but the Ducks see more points at home, so will just stay away.

Stanford at California: This one is at 59 and I have it at 55, but Stanford sees 2.4 more points in their away games. California is also a higher-scoring team at home.

Ohio State at Northwestern: This one is at 62 and I have it at 59, but another case of both teams playing in their higher-scoring locations, so another pass.

END OF JAN. 26 PICKS

 

We’ve dropped a couple in a row with our college totals and have a couple of decent-looking plays for Saturday night in which we look to have a pretty decent edge.

Washington at Colorado: The total in this one is 60.5 and I have it at 54, but just like last game we’ll stay clear of this one, as Colorado has been seeing more points in the first 20 minutes of their games. Colorado sees a couple of extra points at home and the Huskies are also involved in higher-scoring games on the road.

Montana State at Idaho State: This one is also 60.5 and I made it 61, so no real edge one way or the other. Both teams are lower-scoring squads in tonight’s location.

St. Mary’s at Loyola Marymount: The total in this one is 59.5 and I have it at 62, but both teams are in slightly higher scoring locations, with St. Mary’s seeing 1.1 more points at home and Loyola seeing an extra 1.9 points at home. Would lean to the over here.

Montana at Weber State: The total in this one is 62.5 and I made it 59. The Grizzlies see 1.6 fewer points in their road games, but Weber sees 1.9 more points at home.

Arizona at Arizona State: The total in this one is 69 and I made it 64, but with Arizona seeing 1.8 more points on the road and ASU seeing a couple more points at home it becomes a pass.

Pacific at Gonzaga: The total in this one is 66.5 and I have it at 68, so no real edge in this one. Both teams see slightly more scoring in tonight’s locations, but not enough to make a play.

Colorado State at Utah State: The total here is at 66 and I have it at 63, but with Utah State averaging more than 40 first-half points at home, will stay clear of this one.

Seattle at Bakersfield: This one is at 62.5 and I made it 62, so we’re right there at the number. Seattle is a lower-scoring team on the road.

Cal Poly at Irvine: The total here is at 61 and I have it at 66, so will take a shot on the over here. Cal Poly scores the same amount of points at home as they do on the road in the first half, while allowing 3.7 more points on the road. Irvine scores 6 more points, while allowing 3.3 fewer, so a +2.7 in their home games.

Riverside at UCSB: The total here is 59.5 and I made it 58, but both teams in their higher-scoring locations.

UMKC at Cal Baptist: This one is at 66 and I have it at 71, so will take the over in this one. UMKC sees 2.2 more points in their road games, while Cal Baptist averages an additional 3.2 points at home.

END OF JAN. 25 PICKS

We fell to 29-21-3 last night, so have cooled off a little bit with the first-half totals, although they’re still performing well. Doesn’t make the past 10 days or so any better, so will see what we can come up with for Friday’s typical card of primarily smaller East Coast schools, although just one Ivy League game this week.

Kent State at Buffalo: This one came out at 73.5 and I have it at 77, but if we look at the home and away numbers it calls for just 69 points to be scored, with Kent taking a pretty big drop offensively away from home.

Yale at Brown: This one is 62.5 and I have it at 60, so a little too close for comfort even though the home and away numbers are calling for just 57 points, so a slight lean that way.

Fairfield at Quinnipac: The number on this one is 59 and I have it at 54 points, both with the overall numbers and the home and away numbers, so will take the under in this one, which should be pretty ugly.

Marist at Siena: The total in this one is 62 and I have it at 60, both for overall and home and away scoring numbers.

Canisius at Iona: We’re looking at 68.5 in this one and both sets of numbers are calling for 65, so would lean to the under but that’s about it.

St. Peter’s at Rider: The total here is 64 and both sets of numbers are calling for 63 points, so nothing in this one.

Niagara at Monmouth: This one is at 67 and the overall numbers are calling for 61 points, but using home and away numbers is showing a projection of 65 points, which is a little bit too close to the total.

Wisconsin at Purdue: This one is 53.5 and I made it 52, although that moves to 51 if we use home and away numbers, both of which are too close to the number.

Marquette at Butler: This one is 64.5 and I have it 60, although that climbs all the way to 65 with home and away numbers.

Northern Kentucky at Wright State: We’re looking at a number of 66.5 in this one and I have it at 68, which drops all the way down to 63 when looking at the home and away scoring averages.

END OF JAN. 24 PICKS

We dropped last night’s total play in ugly fashion, which is going to happen from time to time. We’re 29-20-3 with these plays, which have been in the 50% range the past week or so, so hopefully can get things back on track a little bit.

Tennessee State at Austin Peay: This one came out at 70.5 and I have it at 74, but with Tennessee State seeing about five fewer points on the road in the first half one I’ll just stay away from.

Montana State at Weber State: We’re looking at a 62 in the first half of this one, which is the same as I made it, so a quick pass in this spot.

Montana at Idaho State: The total in this one came out at 61 and I made it 59, so a little too close for comfort and one just to stay away from.

Seattle at Grand Canyon: The total in this one came out at 65 and I have it at 62, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one, as it’s the only game where we have at least a 3-point difference between our projection and the line, and also have both teams scoring in the direction we want with the home and away numbers. Seattle sees 3.7 fewer points in the first half of their road games, while Grand Canyon sees .9 fewer points in their home games.

Connecticut at Houston: This one came out at 61.5 and I made it 63, so nothing happening here.

BYU at Pacific: This one is at 64 and I made it 60, but a little bit leery of BYU due to their injury situation and will just stay away, as I have with the Cougars in the other articles today.

Portland at Loyola Marymount: The total here is 58.5 and I have it at 62. Portland does score 2.3 fewer points on the road, while allowing 3.8 more and Loyola scores .7 more points at home and also allows 1.2 more, so will take the over 58.5 even though it’s one of those games you’re not thrilled with.

Utah Valley at Bakersfield: This one is at 64 and I have it at 60, but Bakersfield sees a couple more points in their home games.

Pepperdine at Santa Clara: This one came out at 73 and I have it at 74, so nothing in this game.

Washington State at Colorado: Interesting one here, as the number came out at 65 and I have at 57, but Colorado is a higher-scoring team at home, but just by 1.8 points. Will stay away from this one, especially Colorado already getting me a few weeks ago.

Cal Poly at Riverside: This one is 56.5 and I made it 58.

END OF JAN. 23 PICKS

A lackluster 3-4 night overall on Tuesday, splitting the college plays and dropping the Mavs. We split the college totals yesterday and will have just one play tonight, as we have a few games with decent differences, but don’t have the home and away confirming our plays, so we’ll go with the biggest difference out there.

A few site gremlins this morning, so will get the record all caught up tomorrow.

Creighton at DePaul: The total here is 68 and I had it at 72, but Creighton a much lower scoring team on the road, so will just stay clear.

Boston College at Pitt: This one is 58.5 and I have it at 54, but we’d climb up a little bit by looking at the home and away numbers.

Rutgers at Iowa: This one is 65, which is right where I made it, so a quick pass.

Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois: This one is 59.5 and I made it 59, so nothing happening in this one.

Fresno State at Colorado State: This one is 63.5 and I made it 57. Fresno State sees .7 fewer points in their road games, while Colorado State sees 1.3 more points in its home games. Even adding the .6 to our number would still leave us a cushion of more than 5 points, so we’ll go with the under in this one.

Alabama at Vanderbilt: I made this one 76 and the number came out at 73.

Memphis at Tulsa: This one came out at 63.5 and I have it at 64.

Northridge at UCSB: I have this one at 71 and the total came out at 68.

Chicago State at Cal Baptist: This one came out at 72 and I have it at 78, but Chicago State sees 2.3 fewer points on the road and Cal Baptist sees an increase at home, but did run up the score against the likes of Cal Lutheran and Mississippi Valley State.

Irvine at Long Beach: This one is 67.5 and I have it at 72, but this one becomes a pass when factoring in the home and away numbers.

Fullerton State at UC Davis: This one came out at 62 and I have it at 61, so a quick pass in this spot.

UNLV at Nevada: This one came out at 67.5 and I made it 66.

END OF JAN. 22 PICKS

 

 

 

Arizona at Oregon: The first-half total here is 67, which is what my basic numbers have it at and it goes up a little bit looking at just home and away numbers.

Washington at Stanford: The total here is 61.5 and I have it at 54, although that climbs to 60 if we use home and away numbers.

Murray State at Jacksonville State: This one came out at 65 and I have it 70, although it drops a couple of points using home vs. away numbers.

Southern Miss at UTEP: The total here is 60 and I made it 63 and 64 if using home-away numbers.

Northern Colorado at Weber State: We’re looking at a 63 here and I have it at 67, although that drops to 64 using home and away numbers.

Minnesota at Michigan State: The number here is 67.5 and I have it at 62 and that climbs slightly to 64 if we use home and away numbers, so will take a shot on the under 67.5 in this one.

Chicago State at New Mexico State: We’re looking at a 64.5 here and I made this one 66.

Montana at EWU: The number here is 70.5 and I have it at 68 and 67 using home and away numbers.

Montana State at Idaho: This one is 64.5 and I have it at 62 and it drops to 59 using home and away numbers.

Santa Clara at San Francisco: This one came out at 73 and I have it at 72.

Hawaii at Fullerton: This one came out at 63.5 and I made it 58.

Gonzaga at San Diego: This one is at 69 and I made it 74 and that climbs to 75 if we use home and away numbers, so will take a shot on the over in this one.

Northern Arizona at Sacramento State: This one is 57.5 and I made it 53.

Washington State at Cal: We’re looking at a 63 in this one and I made it 60 and that climbs to 61 with home vs. away numbers.

Arizona State at Oregon State: The total here is 68 and I made it 67.

BYU at St. Marys: We’re looking at a 65 here and both numbers came out at 62.

END JAN. 9 PICKS

We came up 1.5 points short in the first half last night, only to watch Toledo and Kent combine for 95 points in the second half, which is how it goes at times.

Kansas at Iowa State: The first half total in this one is at 68.5 and I have it at 67, so pretty close to the first-half total in this one.

George Washington at St. Louis: The first-half total in this one is at 63 and I have at 59, but both teams in higher-scoring locations, which pretty much nullifies any edge, so will stay clear.

Fort Wayne at Western Illinois: We’re looking at a number of 71 for the first half of this one and I have it at 72.

Omaha at North Dakota: The first-half total here is 71.5 and I put it at 70, so nothing happening in this spot.

UCF at SMU: I made this one 61 and we’re looking at a total of 64.5, but SMU a little higher-scoring at home, so will just sit this one and look for a better spot.

Seton Hall at Xavier: This one is also 64.5 and I have it at 59, but with both teams seeing a couple more first-points in tonight’s location, one to just stay away from.

Illinois at Wisconsin: The total in the first half of this one is 58 and I made it 62, so will take the over in this one. Wisconsin sees an increase of 4.6 first-half points when they’re at home, while the Illini see a decrease of .9 points, giving us a predicted 3.7 more points than our initial forecast.

Oklahoma at Texas: Another game where the first-half total is 64.5 and I made this one at 63.

Duke at Georgia Tech: The total in this one is 65.5 and I made it 67.

South Dakota State at Denver: We’re looking at a number of 68 here and I have it at 70.

UNLV at Boise: The total in this one is 65 and I have it at 61, but the Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 6 more points in the first half when they’re away from the Thomas & Mack Center, so will stay away from this one.

San Diego State at Wyoming: The first-half total in this one is just 55.5 and I have it at 52, but both teams are in higher-scoring games in tonight’s location, with San Diego State seeing an extra point on the road and the Cowboys seeing a few more points when they’re the home team.

END OF JAN. 8 PICKS

We won our college total play, but dropped the other two college plays on Monday in a lackluster 2-3 day overall, which continued our trend of alternating winning and losing days the past week. A couple of interesting games on tonight’s schedule, so we’ll see what we can come up with.

Providence at Marquette: The total in this one is 68.5 for the first half and I have it at 68. Using home and away numbers would see a higher-scoring game predicted, as the forecast goes up to 74 points.

Miami at Louisville: The first-half total in this one is 67.5 and I have it at 63, which climbs slightly to 64 if we were to use home vs. away numbers for our forecast, although those can be a little misleading when teams schedule a couple of games against schools they completely wax.

Virginia at Boston College: The total on this one is just 53.5, but I have it at 46 in a game I really wanted to take the under in, but as I’ve mentioned a few times, we didn’t fare all that great going under against such low totals last year, so going to just stay away from this one.

Ohio State at Maryland: The first-half total on this one is 62.5 and I have it at 59. Home vs. away numbers would call for a few more points.

Toledo at Kent State: The first-half total here is 67.5 and I have this one at 75. Using home and away numbers would have a projection of 74 points, so will go ahead and take the over in this one.

Tennessee at Missouri: The first-half total is 57 and I made it 55, a number which climbs to 58 if we use simply home and away numbers.

Florida at South Carolina: The first-half total here is 63.5 and I made it 62 and that number would dip a little bit more if we were to use home vs. away numbers.

Rider at Quinnipac: We’re looking at a 70.5 for the first half of this one and I have it at 67, with the home vs. away numbers calling for 66 points.

Penn State at Rutgers: The first-half total here is 66 and I made this one 64 on both sets of numbers.

END OF JAN. 7 PICKS

We split our two college totals on Sunday and are now looking at a fairly small slate of games for Monday, which is fine with me, as sometimes we’ll do better when there aren’t quite as many games, which allows for a little more time to look them over more closely or run home and away numbers, as opposed to a quick look at the splits teams have.

For halftime lines, we use a team’s overall numbers and subtract a point from the road team and add one to the home team, while adding and subtracting two points for full-game lines. But some teams have bigger differences than are allotted for, while very few have smaller differences, even though most basketball people will say home court is worth approximately four points, give or take a little depending on the team.

Lafayette at Appalachian State: The first half total in this one is 66 and I made it 67, so not a whole lot of an edge in this one, so will just stay away.

Monroe at Coastal Carolina: The first half total in this one is 65 and I have it at 64, although if we use home vs. away numbers only, the projection drops a little bit to 59, as Monroe is only averaging 23.7 points in the first half on the road, although much of that has to do with being held to 36 points for an entire game by a decent Butler defense, especially considering they’ve only had four games on the road so far. Monroe can shoot the 3-pointer a little bit and Coastal Carolina allows 35.3%.

Georgia Southern at Little Rock: The number for this one is 69 and I made it 68 and that number climbs to 70 using home vs. away numbers.

South Alabama at Arlington: The first-half number here is 67 and I made it 62, so will go ahead and take the under in this one. The number drops a little more if we use home vs. away numbers.

Troy at Texas State: This one is sitting at 63 and I made it 68 and it climbs even more if we use home vs. away numbers, but these teams both piled it on against the likes of Shorter, Carver Bible and Bethany College, so going to stay clear of this one and see how it plays out.

Georgia State at Arkansas State: This one is 68.5 and I have it at 67 and it’s 69 if we use home vs. away numbers.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State: We’re looking at a 65 in the first half of this one and I have it 63.

END OF JAN. 6 PICKS

Coming off a bit of an ugly day, going 3-5 overall between basketball and football, on a card that I liked a little bit. All we can do is look to regroup and march on. We’ll start with the college games beginning at 4 p.m. and later. We went 1-2 yesterday to fall to 15-10 for the season. Two of the games were one-sided resulting in an easy win and an easy loss and we came up two points short in the Evansville game after a bit of a scoring drought.

Mass at St. Louis: The first half total on this one is 65.5 and I set it at 62.

St. Bonnies at George Washington: We’re looking at a 62.5 in the first half of this one and I made it 60.

St. Johns at Xavier: The number here came out at 67.5 and I made it 62, but both teams are at higher-scoring locations, with St. Johns seeing 2.6 more points in the first half of their away games and Xavier seeing an increase of 2.0 points at home in the first half, which essentially nullifies whatever edge the numbers predicted.

Denver at South Dakota: The first half total on this one is 67 and I made it 70. South Dakota is higher scoring at home, but played the likes of Mount Marty and Mayville State, so you’d expect them to score points in those types of games.

Fort Wayne at North Dakota: The number here is 67.5 and I made it 67.

Oregon State at Colorado: The first half total here is 65.5 and I have it at 58, so will go ahead and take the under here. The Beavers see 1.4 fewer points in their road games and the Buffs see an increase of .9, so we’re not losing anything based on the location.

Northwestern at Minnesota: The total here is 64.5 and I have it at 58, so will also take this one to land under the total. Minnesota sees 3.6 fewer points in the first half of their road games, while Minnesota sees a slight decrease, as well.

Purdue at Illinois: The total here is 60.5 and I made it 58.

USC at Washington: The first half total in this one is 68, which is where I have it.

END OF JAN. 5 PICKS

Getting first-half totals lines has been a huge pain in the butt today, but we’ll have three plays. We’re 14-8 with these plays after squeaking one out last night.

Greensboro at Wofford: This one is at 60 and I made it 63.

Towson at Wilmington: The number on this one is 61.5 and I have it at 62.

UCLA at WSU: The first-half total here is 66 and I have it at 60, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under. The Bruins score 6.3 fewer points on the road than they do overall, while allowing 1.9 less and the Cougars score 1.7 more, while allowing .9 fewer points.

Texas A & M at Arkansas: The first half total here is just 58.5 but I have it at 49, so will take the under in this one as well, although last year we were hurt a little bit taking some of these low totals under. But I don’t see the Aggies scoring much here and they can play defense.

UTSA at Florida International: This one is at 75.5 and I made it 79.

San Jose State at Fresno State: The first-half total here is 64.5 and I have it at 61.

Valparaiso at Evansville: The first-half total here is 69 and I have it at 74 and we’ll take a stab on the over for our final play of the day. Valpo scores .4 fewer points on the road, but allows 3.6 more, while Evansville sees 3.3 more total points in the first half of their games when they’re at home.

UAB at Old Dominion: The first-half number here is 54 and I made it 51.

Princeton at Penn: The first-half number here is 70 and I have it at 76, but Penn allowing 11 points less when they’re at home.

Bradley at Northern Iowa: I have this one at 62 and the total is 63.

Missouri State at Loyola-Chicago: This one is at 58.5 and I made it 56.

Oral Roberts at Omaha: This one is 74.5 and I have it at 71.

SEMO at Murray State: The number here is 63.5 and I have it at 66.

Troy at Lafayette: I have this one at 68 and the total is 67.5.

Texas at Baylor: This one is at 61 and I made it 60.

END OF JAN. 4 PICKS

Decent-sized slate for Friday and we split our two totals plays on Thursday. Getting a bit late, so we’ll jump right to it.

Toledo at Ball State: The first-half total in this one is 63 and I made it 59. Toledo scores a bit less on the road, while allowing a point more and Ball State plays a little higher-scoring at home.

Wright State at Oakland: The total here is 64.5 and I made this one 67.

Illinois-Chicago at Green Bay: The first half number here is 74 and that’s what I have it at, so nothing happening here.

St. Peter’s at Iona: This one is 63.5 and I made it 58, but Iona has only played seven games so far this season, so not much to go on in the way of stats.

Quinnipac at Marist: This one is 61.5 for the first half and I have it at 56, although Marist scores more and allows more at home and Quinnipac also plays a little higher-scoring games on the road, primarily due to defense.

Monmouth at Siena: The number for the first half of this one is 65 and I made it 66.

Manhattan at Canisius: We’re looking at a 60 for the first half of this one and I set it at 58.

Northern Kentucky at Detroit: The first half total here is 67.5 and I have it at 66.

Fairfield at Niagara: The number for this one is at 62 and I made it 59.

Wisconsin at Ohio State: Decent game here and the first half total is 58.5, while I have it at 59.

Delaware at Drexel: The number for the first half here is 67.5 and I set it at 68.

UCF at Houston: The total on this one is 62.5 and I made it 63.

Rutgers at Nebraska: The first-half total here is 66.5 and I have it at 61, but Rutgers has been a different team away from home, where they allow 9.8 more first-half points.

IUPUI at Milwaukee: The number here is 68 and I penciled it at 71.

Kent State at Bowling Green: The number here is 69 and I have it at 77, so will go ahead and take the over in this one.

Georgetown at Seton Hall: The first-half number here is 69.5 and I have it at 69.

Temple at Tulsa: This one is at 64.5 and I made it 63 for the first half.

END OF JAN. 3 PICKS

We moved to 12-7 on the season with our first-half totals plays on Wednesday and will have two plays for tonight, as I’m trying to get out of the habit of just using one play all the time, especially when the numbers like more than one game by a fair margin.

St. Joes at Richmond: The first half total in this one is at 73 and I made it 75.

Fordham at VCU: The first-half total in this one is just 57.5 and I have it at 58.

St. Louis at Duquesne: The first-half total in this one is 63 and I have it at 57, so going to take the under in this spot. St. Louis sees a drop of 3.0 points offensively on the road, while their defense allows .3 fewer points, while Duquesne scores and allows fewer points at home.

UTSA at FAU: The first-half total on this one is 67.5 and I have it at 71, but UTSA scores a bit less on the road, so no real interest in this one.

Towson State at Charleston: We’re looking at a 61.5 in the first half of this one and I made it 63.

Elon at Northeastern: The first-half total in this one is 63.5 and I made it 62, so no real room for error in this spot.

Minnesota at Purdue: The first half total in this one is 60 and I have it at 55, but both teams are slightly higher-scoring in their respective locations, so will just stay clear of this one.

Rhode Island at Brown: The first-half total here is 68.5 and I made it 67.

Georgia State at Appalachian State: The total on this one is at 66.5 and I made it 67.

UAB at Charlotte: The first-half total in this one is at 58 and I have it at 52, but UAB allows 4 more points on the road, so will just stay away from this one.

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina: The first-half total here is 72.5 and I have it at 76.

Rice at Marshall: The first half total on this one is 73.5 and I have it at 69.

North Texas at Western Kentucky: The first-half total on this one is 65 and I have it at 61 and will take the under in this one as well, with North Texas sees 5.9 fewer first-half points in their road games, while Western Kentucky sees 1.2 fewer points in their home games.

William & Mary at Hofstra: The first-half total here is 71.5 and I have it at 70.

END OF JAN. 2 PICKS

We ended our little skid last night to move to 11-7 on the season with our first-half totals and running a little behind, so we’ll get right to it, although our play today won’t be until late in the evening.

Wofford at East Tennessee State: The total here is 66.5 and I have it at 72, but Wofford’s scoring averages take a bit of a toll on the road, although a lot of that has to do with playing some tough teams away from home.

USF at SMU: The first half total in this one is just 58.5 and I made it 59, so nothing happening in this one.

Connecticut at Cincinnati: The first half number in this one is 64 and I have it at 61, but will stay away as the Huskies see 3.5 fewer first-half points when they’re away from home and the Bearcats can play tough defense at home, where they allow 28 points.

Mercer at Greensboro: The first half number in this one is just 61 and I have it at 64, so the numbers have a slight lean to the over. A little hesitant as both teams are coming off big offensive outputs against pretty weak opposition.

Wyoming at Boise State: The first half total in this one is 62 and I have it at 59.

Marquette at Creighton: The first-half total in this one is at 71.5 and I made it 71, so too close for comfort in this game.

Colorado State at Nevada: We’re looking at a 71.5 in the first half of this game and I made it 70, so nothing really happening here.

New Mexico at San Jose State: The first half total in this one is at 71 and I made the number 70, so another one a little too close for comfort.

Utah State at UNLV: The first-half total in this one is 64.5 and I have it at 62, but am going to go ahead and take the under in this one. Utah State averages 7.4 fewer points in the first half when they are on the road and allows 4.0 more, so they play 3.7 points less on the road, while the Rebels score .6 more points at home, while allowing 3.1 fewer, so think this one has a decent chance at landing under the number.

END OF JAN. 1 PICKS

Smaller schedule today and we have some early starts, so we’ll do the usual and look at some of the later games that are on the schedule, as we look to bounce back after another loss in the final second. Definitely frustrating, but it should all balance out at the end of the season. In theory, any way. But we’ve dropped three in a row to fall to 10-7 on the season.

Miami, Fla. at Clemson: The first half total in this one is 63.5 and I made it 62, so not much room for error and will just stay clear of this game.

Riverside at Air Force: The first half total here is 63 and I have it at 60, although it will depend on which team is able to dictate the style of game. Air Force is a little higher-scoring, while Riverside is a more defensive-oriented team.

Evansville at Missouri State: We’re looking at a 64.5 in the first half of this one and I made it 64.

Georgetown at Providence: The first-half total in this one is 71.5 and I made it 73, so pretty close to the number in this spot.

Boston College at Duke: The first-half total in this one is 65.5 and I have it at 66. Duke should get its share of points, the question is how many points will the Eagles be able to score?

Drake at Bradley: The first-half total in this one is 62.5 and I made it 69, but Drake is one of those teams who allows roughly the same number of points on the road as at home, but score about eight fewer points when they’re on the road.

Rider at Wisconsin: The first-half total in this one is 65.5 and I have it at 73. Rider’s scoring has taken a dip when they face the better schools, as they’ve scored 55 at Arizona State and 66 at Temple, while the Badgers can play defense.

Butler at St. John’s: The first-half total in this one is 65 and I made it 59, so will go ahead and take the under in this spot. Using home and away numbers sees a projection of 57 points.

END OF DEC. 31 PICKS

A bit of an ugly day on Sunday, as we lost a couple in the last few minutes, along with an ugly one in the NBA, so on to Monday, where we’ll look at some of the games on the slate. We fell to 10-6 on Sunday when North Dakota State hit a 3-pointer with a second remaining in the first half.

Wisconsin Green Bay at Northern Kentucky: The first-half total in this one is 73 and I made it 77, so will take the over in this one right out of the gate. Green Bay scores 3.7 fewer points in the first half away from home, while allowing 2.1 more points, while Northern Kentucky scores 5.4 more points in the first half, while allowing .4 more, so think the game has a decent shot of seeing some scoring early on.

Austin Peay at Georgia: The total here is 73 and I have it at 80, but Austin Peay sees about five fewer points in the first half when they’re the road team and Georgia sees slightly fewer points at home.

St. Bonaventure at Buffalo: This one is sitting at 68 and that’s what I have it at.

Mass at Akron: We’re looking at 67.5 in this one and my numbers were showing it at 65, so not a whole lot of margin for error.

Northeastern at James Madison: I made the total in this one at 68 and the line is 70.5, so nothing really happening in this one.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Wright State: The number in the first half here is 69 and I have it at 71.

Northern Arizona at Montana State: The first half total here is 66.5 and I have it at 61. Northern Arizona sees a decent decrease in scoring when they take to the road, but the Bobcats see quite a few more points in their home games.

Eastern Washington at Idaho State: The total here is 72.5 and I made it 74, but the Eagles sees a decrease in scoring when they’re on the road, as their stats are slanted a little bit due to pouring it on against the likes of Multnomah Bible, who they scored 146 points against a few weeks ago.

Detroit at Gonzaga: The first half number here is 75.5 and I have it at 80.

Sacramento State at Montana: This one came out at 58.5 and I have it at just 50, although Montana sees a few more points in their home games.

END OF DEC. 30 PICKS

Decent-sized slate of games for Sunday and we’re going to whiz through these due to time and the fact that I’ve already done all the work for the three articles. We’ll start with the 4 p.m. games on the schedule, although our first play isn’t until 5:30 p.m. We lost with this one on Saturday to fall to 10-5 on the season, so still our best performing play so far.

Appalachian State at NC State: The first half total here is 67.5 and I made it 68.

Tenn Tech at Ole Miss: The first half total in this one is 64 and I made it 62.

UC Davis at New Mexico: The first half total in this one is sitting at 69.5 and I have it at 69.

Bakersfield at Texas Tech: This one is at 60.5 and I have it at 65, but Bakersfield averages 5.5 fewer first-half points on the road and Tech a little better defensively at home.

Rhode Island at Middle Tenn: This one is at 69.5 and I have it at 75, but MTS sees about three fewer points in their home games.

FAU at USF: This one is at 57.5 for the first half and I have it at 61.

South Dakota at Western Illinois: The first half total here is 70 and I have it at 76, but another case where SD sees about 6 fewer first-half points when they’re the away team.

ND State at Denver: The first-half total here is 63.5 and I have it at 59, so will take the under. North Dakota State sees 3.0 fewer points in their games when they’re the away team and Denver with a .4 reduction when they’re the home team.

Harvard at California: The first half total here is 63 and I made it 65.

UCSB at Lafayette: The first half number here is 67.5 and I have it at 67.

Western Michigan at Michigan State: No first-half number here as of now, and I’d have it at 65.

Tulsa at Kansas State: The first half total here is 58.5 and I made this one 56.

North Dakota at Oregon State: We’re looking at a 68 in the first half of this one and I made it 70.

Richmond at Alabama: The first half total here is 72.5 and I penciled it in as 72.

END OF DEC. 29 PICKS

Not too many differences in totals between the first half numbers and our projections, so we’ll see what we can come up with. We’re 10-4 with these plays, which have been the best of the three college basketball plays, as first-half sides haven’t really gotten untracked yet.

Cal Poly at San Diego State: The first half total in this one is 59 and I have it at 61, so going to take a shot on the over in this one. Will definitely need the Aztecs to do the brunt of the work for us, as the Mustangs may have some trouble scoring, but both teams play slightly higher-scoring games in today’s location.

Wilmington at Delaware: This one is 65.5 for the first half and I have it at 67, but both teams a little lower-scoring in today’s location.

Niagara at Syracuse: This one is 69.5 and I have it at 66, so lean to the under, but was a little put off by the full game reverse move that saw the total climb two points.

Belmont at Western Kentucky: The first half total of this one is 71.5 and I made it 72, so nothing happening in this one.

Seattle at Saint Marys: The first half number in this one came out at 63 and I have it at 62, so another one with no real value one way or the other. Seattle’s scoring does take a slight nose-dive away from home, where they’re forced to play decent schools instead of Pacific-Oregon or Incarnate Word.

Oral Roberts at BYU: The first half number in this one is at 70 and I have it at 71, so not enough of a difference to make a stand. Oral Roberts is a bit worse defensively away from home. I did make a small adjustment for Oral Roberts and the differences in their home and away efforts, which did bring the projected points up a little bit.

Pepperdine at San Jose State: The first half number in this one is a bit on the high side at 74.5, but I had it at 72. The Spartans don’t score a lot, although they don’t stop people from scoring, either, so a tough one to get a grasp on.

Riverside at Fresno: The first-half number in this one is at 57 and I have it at 56, as both teams can play good defense, but Riverside has played some weaker teams and it’s far easier to hold Redlands to 44 points than it is to play defense against Utah State or Saint Marys.

END OF DEC. 28 PICKS

After losing three in a row we’ve bounced back to win our last three and sit at 9-4 for the season and our overall college basketball record is 20-14, so complaints so far in a season that goes to show the ups-and-downs that exist in sports handicapping. Anyway, a fairly small slate of games on tap for today

Canisius at Siena: The first-half total in this one is 67 and I have it at 71 for the overall numbers and Siena also scores more points at home and I’d have the total at 78 using home and away numbers, so will go ahead and take the over 67 in this one, even though I also have a full-game side wager going, something I don’t do often, although the smaller slate of games for today has something to do with that.

Long Beach State at Seattle: The first-half total in this one is sitting at 65.5 and I have it at 67, so not much margin for error with the numbers. Home and away numbers would have this one much higher-scoring, although Seattle has lit up the scoreboard at home against the likes of Pacific Lutheran and Pacific-Oregon.

Georgia Southern at Georgia: The first-half total in this one is 76 and both the overall and home-away numbers have this one at 78. Both teams can score, but not sure how Georgia Southern will fare against the athletes of the Bulldogs.

Georgia State at SMU: The first-half total in this one is 67.5 and I have it at 63 and 67 depending on the numbers being used. My full-game numbers have this one a little higher-scoring than the total, so one that I probably couldn’t pull the trigger on the under.

San Francisco at Fresno State: The first half number in this one is 68.5 and both of my numbers have this one at 65. The Dons are 9-2 in totals for the season and 3-1 on the road, while the Bulldogs have gone 7-2 in totals and 3-0 at home, although those are full-game total records. One I’d stay away from, as my full-game predictions also have this one going over.

END OF DEC. 23 PICKS

We’ll look at a few of the late afternoon and evening games for Sunday, where we have a huge slate, although games are going to slow down here beginning tomorrow.

Fullerton at Loyola Marymount: The first half total in this one is 60 and I have it at 63. The full game total has held pretty steady even with 75% of the wagers coming in on the under.

Charlotte at East Carolina: The first half total on this one is 64 and I made it 57 and that number climbs a little bit if we take home and away numbers into consideration. Will go ahead and take a shot on the under 64 in this one.

Missouri-Kansas City at South Dakota: The first-half total here is 64.5 and I made it 69 on the overall numbers, and while South Dakota scores more at home, they’ve played some pretty poor teams in front of the home fans.

Yale at Clemson: The first half total in this one is 60 and I also have it at 60, so nothing happening in this one.

Riverside at San Jose State: The first half total in this one is 60.5 and I have it at 55, but Riverside a little higher-scoring games on the road, where their defense isn’t as solid as at home.

Xavier at TCU: The first half total in this one is 62.5 and I have it at 61, so a little too close for comfort in this game.

Citadel at NC State: The first half total in this one is 79 and I have it at 91, but a little unsure of how Citadel is going to score at NC State. They’ve played a much softer schedule and already score seven fewer first-half points on the road.

Florida Atlantic at Mercer: The first-half total here is 64.5 and I have it at 67, but both teams with some lower-scoring numbers in their respective locations, with FAU nearly 8 points lower scoring and Mercer plays to about three fewer points at home.

UTEP at Hawaii: The first half total in this one is sitting at 62 and I have it at 57, but UTEP has only had a couple of games away from home and not really sure what they’ll do defensively, so will just stay clear of this tournament game.

END OF DEC. 22 PICKS

Huge slate of games today, so we’ll just look at some of the evening games, which is our standard formula for days like this.

Northern Kentucky at NC-Greensboro: The first-half total here is just 57.5, while I made it 60, but Northern Kentucky plays much lower-scoring games on the road.

Kansas St. vs. St. Louis: The first-half total on this one is 57 and I have it at 53.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State: The number here is 62.5 and I have it at 59, but the MSU plays higher-scoring games at home.

Utah Valley State at Long Beach State: Interesting one here, as the first-half total is 71 and I have it 63, as Long Beach has played better defensively in the first half than in the second half.

NC-Wilmington at Vanderbilt: The number here is 66.5 and I made it 69, although Wilmington is scoring 8 fewer first-half points on the road this season than they are at home.

Eastern Illinois at Grand Canyon: The first-half total in this one is 66.5 and I made it 70, but not really sure what to think of this one, as Grand Canyon is attracting some money for the full game and not sure what that will do to scoring, as they average 30 points and allow 35. Just going to stay away from this one.

Creighton at Arizona State: The first half total in this one is 70.5 and I made it 73. Creaighton has only played two road games, so not really sure how that will translate in this one, as there really isn’t much to go on.

Northwestern at DePaul: The first half total in this one is 64 and I have it at 58, but DePaul has played some weak teams at home and not sure if their defense is as good as their numbers indicate.

Oregon State at Texas A & M: The first half total here is 62 and I have it at 54, so will take the under in this one. The home and away numbers have it at 57, with the Beavers scoring the bulk of the points, so need A & M to keep it close and keep the Beavers from getting up and down the court.

END OF DEC. 21 PICKS

We’re sitting at 6-4 with our first-half totals plays after we hit a bit of a slide, having gone 1-3 our last four games. A number of games today don’t have first-half totals posted, so we’ll do what we can here.

James Madison at Fordham: The first-half total on this one is 66.5, which might be a little on the high side, as I have it at 61. Still, Fordham has played a soft schedule and JMU has been putting up points against better competition, so will just stay clear.

SMU at Georgia: The first-half total here is 70 and I have it 71, so nothing really happening here. SMU is another team that has played a pathetic schedule so far, so they’ve likely not as good defensively as their numbers look.

Furman at Mercer: This one is 70 and I’m all over the place, with an overall predicted first-half total of 73 for the overall number, but just 59 for home and away numbers.

Irvine at Illinois-Chicago: The first-half total here is 65 and this is another one, where I’m split depending on using the overall or home and away numbers, with 67 for the overall and 62 for the home and away numbers.

Northern Colorado at South Dakota: The first-half total here is 65.5 and I have it at 70 and 71, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one. South Dakota has put up some points against weaker teams, but also allowed 79 points to Mount Marty.

North Dakota State at Marquette: There’s no first-half total posted on this one, which I have as being pretty low-scoring. Not sure if we’ll see one later, as it is a 9 p.m. EST start or not. I have 56 for the overall numbers and just 49 for the home and away numbers.

IUPUI at Fresno: Another later game with no first-half total posted and I’m all over the place on this one, as well, with numbers ranging from 62 to 75.

Akron vs. Tulane: It’s more of the same in this one, where I’m between 64 and 74 depending on the stats used and there’s nothing posted.

Liberty at Towson: Yet another game with no first-half total, although it would be pretty low; somewhere around 52 to 53, I would imagine. I have this one at 50 and 52.

Drexel vs. Quinnipac: This one also has no first-half total, while I’m at 65 and 61.

END OF DEC. 20 PICKS

Running behind, as usual with college hoops, so we’ll get right to it.

Western Carolina at Xavier: The first half total in this one is 69.5 and I made it 61, although both teams are higher-scoring in their respective locations. Running home or away numbers gives a prediction of 66, so not quite the same advantage.

DePaul at Cleveland State: The total on this one is at 64 and I made it 66.

Ball State at Georgia Tech: The first half total in this one is 62 and I made it 54. Ball State has played a little lower-scoring games away from home, while the Yellow Jackets see slightly less scoring at home, so will go ahead and take the under 62 in this one.

Tennessee State at Indiana State: We’re looking at a 69.5 in the first half of this one and I made it 64. Tennessee State has just two home games in the books and it’s unlikely they’re as good defensively as they’ve looked so far.

Illinois Chicago at Illinois State: The first half total on this one is 65 and I have it at 58, but Illinois-Chicago has played higher scoring games on the road.

Canisius at Buffalo: The first half total in this one is sitting at 73.5 and I made it 74, so no room for error in this one.

Niagara at St. Bonnies: The first half total in this one is sitting at 62, which is right where I made it.

St. Peters at UConn: The first half total in this one is 62.5 and I made it 61, although have to think the Huskies can put up at least 40 points in the first half if they really set out to do so.

East Tenn State at LSU: The first-half total on this one is 72 and I set it at 74, so nothing happening in this one.

Tennessee at Cincinnati: The first-half total here is 61 and I made it 54, but the Vols have scored slightly more and allowed a little more on the road, while the Bearcats played slightly higher scoring games at home.
Richmond at Old Dominion: The total here is 60 and I made it 57, so will just stay clear.

VCU at College of Charleston: The first half total in this one is sitting at 62 and I made it 63.

END OF DEC. 18 PICKS

Dropped our last two first-half totals, with the Hawaii one being ugly on Sunday, as Samford decided to try a faster tempo and the result of a 23-point beatdown was predictable.

Mercer at Wilmington: The first-half total in this one is 68 and I have it at 71, but could see it going over the total as Mercer hasn’t played defense as well on the road.

Valparaiso at Charlotte: This one is 64.5 for the first half and I have it at 67.

Marist at Rider: The first-half total here is 62 and I have it at 64, although both teams are a little lower-scoring in their respective locations.

Marshall at Morehead State: The total here is 68 and I made this one 62 and am going to take a shot on the under. Marshall has played lower-scoring games on the road, while Morehead State has scored a bit more at home, while allowing less.

Southern Miss at Texas Tech: The first half total on this one is 61 and I have it at 70, so basically it came down to this one or the Morehead game. Personally, will likely make a play on this one, but passing for record-keeping in this article.

Northern Illinois at Pitt: The first-half total here is 57 and I made it 55.

Eastern Illinois at Western Illinois: The first-half total on this one is 72.5 and I made it 74.

Montana State at North Dakota State: This one is 61 and I made it 55, but North Dakota scores and allows more points at home.

Evansville at Jacksonville State: The first-half total in this one is 65.5 and I made it 67.

UCSB at Idaho State: We’re looking at a first-half total of 62 in this one, while I made it 64.

Loyola-Marymount at UC Davis: The first-half total here is 60.5 and I have it at 64. Cal-Davis another team with some distorted numbers after playing the likes of William Jessup at home, so just staying clear of this one.

END OF JAN. 16

Pretty much the typical sized-slate of college basketball games for Sunday, where we split on Saturday. We’ll look at the regularly scheduled college games that have a 5 p.m. or later start time. We’ll start with our college first-half totals, where we dropped to 5-2 after losing last time out.

South Carolina at Clemson: The first-half total in this one is 64.5 and I have it at 66. South Carolina has scored a few points less away from home, while allowing more, but have just three games away from home, while the Tigers have better offensive numbers at home, but have played a couple of pretty weak foes.

Georgia Southern at Bradley: The first-half total on this one is 69.5, while I have it at 71, but both teams are a little lower-scoring in their respective situations, with Georgia Southern seeing 1.7 fewer first-half points on the road and Bradley seeing 1.8 fewer points in the first half when they are the home team.

Northridge at Pacific: This one is 61.5 for the first half and I have it at 63. Northridge is 1.5 points higher away from home, while Pacific is a -1 at home, where they play a little better on defense.

Ohio State at Minnesota: The first-half total in this one is 60.5 and I have it at 57. The Buckeyes have just played one game away from home this season, so it’s pretty difficult to predict if there’s much of a difference in their scoring depending on location, while Minnesota is even in total points at home compared to their overall numbers.

Long Beach at USC: The first-half total here is 70.5 and I have it at 74. Long Beach sees 1.7 more first-half points in their away games, but the Trojans see more than 5 fewer points in the home games.

Missouri State at VCU: The first-half total on this one is 61.5 and I made it at 58. Missouri State sees a bit more scoring in their road games, while Rams are a -1 at home compared to their overall averages.

SE Missouri at Youngstown: The first-half total here is 67.5 and I have it at 73, but SEMO scores less and allows fewer points on the road and Youngstown has played some pretty dismal teams at home, which has inflated their numbers a bit.

Samford at Hawaii: The first-half total here is 68 and I have it at 60, so will take the under in this one. Samford is seeing 5 more points in their road games, although part of that is due to their opponents, as they’ve played some high-scoring teams and have had three totals of 155 or higher in their six away games. Hawaii plays a little better defensively at home.

END DEC. 15 PICKS

We moved to 5-1 with our first-half college totals plays on Wednesday and have a couple of small slates on tap the next few days, so we’ll be able to look at each game in a little more detail.

Austin Peay at West Virginia: The first half total in this one is 69.5, which is maybe a half-point or so higher than it should be based on the full-game total, which has dropped. The Governors are a decent offensive team, who are averaging 80.7 points per game, with 38.2 points coming in the first half. Austin Peay’s numbers take a bit of a hit when they take to the road, as the had a couple of blowouts at home over the likes of Oakland City and South Carolina State. The Governors aren’t the greatest defensive team around, allowing 75.5 points and they’re worse on the road. West Virginia can score themselves and have higher-scoring games at home. I have this one at 75, so will take a shot on the over in this one.

Iowa at Iowa State: Decent game here, as the first-half total is 73.5 and I have it at 76, although I’d have it at 69 if we used home and away numbers. Iowa’s away games feature a little less scoring, as the Hawkeyes average 37.9 first-half points and 36.2 away from home, while allowing 34.5 points and 34.2 when not at home. Iowa State also shows a bit of a decrease in scoring when they’re at home, as they go from 37.8 first-half points to 37 at home and allow 28.8 points compared to 32.9 points overall. Iowa’s away numbers are going to be a little distorted due to the high-scoring game against Michigan, which seems to be a bit of an anomaly compared to their other games.

Northern Iowa at Grand Canyon: The first-half total in this one is 62.5 and my base numbers make it 65, while the home and away numbers have it at 60. Northern Iowa goes from 38.9 points to 35 when not at home, while their defense allows 28.2 points compared to 28.1 overall, so not much of a defensive change. Grand Canyon scores 30.2 first-half points and 29.7 at home, while allowing 33 points at home and 34.1 overall.

Southern at Wright State: No line out on this one at the majority of places, but I’d have it at 69 and 70.

END OF DEC. 12 PICKS

Running short on time, so we’ll get right to it, and start with our college basketball first-half totals, where we dropped to 4-1 last night.

Wisconsin at Rutgers: The first-half total in this one is sitting at 58 and I have it at 59, so nothing here.

Yale at UMass: This one is 63.5 for the first half and I have it at 60, but the Minutemen have been a much-higher-scoring team when they’ve been at home.

Omaha at Arizona: The first-half total in this one is at 69 and I have it at 67, so will just stay away from this one.

Boise State at Tulsa: The total on the first half of this one is 63 and I have it at 64, so nothing happening here.

Arlington at Houston: The total on the first half of this one is 65.5 and I made it 64.

Arkansas State at Missouri State: We’re looking at a 62 for the first half of this one and I put it at 60.

Chattanooga at Virginia Tech: This one is at 63.5 and I made it 65.

Troy at Jacksonville State: The first-half total on this one is 63.5 and I have it at 63.

Michigan at Illinois: The first-half total in this one is 67 and I have it at 75, but the Wolverines have scored almost seven fewer points in the first half when they’re away from home and Illinois is slightly lower-scoring at home in the first half than on the road.

San Diego at Fullerton: The first-half total in this one is 62 and I had at 57, but Fullerton does ply to 4.5 more first-half points at home, so will just stay away from this one.

Fresno State at California: The first-half total in this one is just 59.5 and I made it at 63, so not quite as much of a difference as I’d like, so will just stay away from this one.

North Dakota State at Northridge: The first-half total in this one is sitting at 66 and I have it at 62, so going to go ahead and take a shot on the under of this one. North Dakota State has played lower-scoring games on the road, while Northridge is pretty much even, but they’ve played some higher-scoring teams.

END OF DEC. 11 PICKS

 

 

 

Will try to keep it going with our first-half totals plays, which are 4-0 on the season, having caught a couple of breaks, which you’re going to need over the course of the season, as you know there will be plenty of games where you deserve better than what you end up with.

Maryland at Penn State: A decent game to start things off and the first-half total here is 67.5, while I have it at 67.

St. Joes at Temple: Another game where the total is at 67.5 and I have this one at 68, so again, too close for comfort to make a wager.

Brown at St. Johns: Once again, we’re right around the number, as I have this one at 70 and the first-half total is 69.5.

Detroit at Notre Dame: The first-half total on this one is 68.5 and I have it at 66, so nothing worthwhile in this one.

Tenn State at Little Rock: The first-half total in this one is sitting at 62, which is right where I have it.

Milwaukee at Kansas: The first-half number on this one is 65 and I have it at 67, so nothing really worth getting involved in.

Green Bay at UCF: The first-half total in this one is 74.5 and I have it at 79. Green Bay scores 2.5 fewer first-half points when they’re on the road, but also allows 2.5 more points in the first half, while UCF scores 2.0 more points in the first half at home, while allowing .5 fewer, so a slight gain there. Will take the over 74.5 in this one, expecting Green Bay to try and force the issue.

Monmouth at Princeton: The first-half total here is 64.5 and I have it at 69, although both teams play slightly lower-scoring games in their respective locations.

Nevada at BYU: The first-half total here is 74 and I have it at 73.

Northern Iowa at Colorado: The first half total in this one is a low 58.5, while I have it just under that at 57.

South Dakota State at Colorado State: The total here is 68, which is exactly where I have it at, so definitely nothing of interest in this one.

END OF DEC. 10 PICKS

The final of our three plays for Sunday and a bit tougher than we’ve seen the past few days as numbers are getting a little tighter as teams get more games in the books.

Northwestern at Purdue: The first half total in this one is 58.5 and I have it at 54, but no real interest in playing this one, as if Purdue has a little bit of a letdown after Virginia it will likely occur early and most likely on the defensive side of things, so just staying clear of this one.

Denver at UCLA: The first half total in this one is 64 and I have it at 59, but UCLA home games average 5.2 more first-half points than their overall numbers, so will just stay clear of this one.

Buffalo at DePaul: The first-half total in this one is is 72 and I made it 75, so pretty close to the line and nothing really happening here.

North Dakota at Eastern Washington: We’re looking at a 71.5 for the first half of this one and I have it at 71, so no room for error in this game. This is just Eastern’s third home game of the season, so not much to build on from a statistical standpoint.

Eastern Kentucky at Northern Kentucky: The first-half total on this one is 68.5 and I made it 66, so once again we’re pretty close to the number and will just stay clear.

Gonzaga at Washington: We’re looking at a first-half total of 68 in this one and I have it at 66, so no real edge in this game.

Rutgers at Michigan State: The first-half total in this one is 66.5 and I have it at 61, so a 5.5-point difference between our projection and the total. Rutgers has only played two games away from home, while the Spartans have just three home games under their belts, but will take a stab on the under here, as I think the Spartans will come out and shut the Scarlet Knights down from the start.

Seton Hall at Iowa State: The first-half total here is 71 and I have it at 74. The teams did play to a 33-32 half just 10 days ago so will stay away.

END OF DEC. 8 PICKS

The last one of our three college basketball articles for the day, so will get to it, as we don’t have quite as many large differences between the first-half totals and our projections as we have the past few couple of days.

SEMO at Drake: The first-half total in this one is 62 and I have it at 68.

Morehead State at Illinois State: The first-half total in this one is 65 and I have it at 57, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under of this one.

Georgetown at SMU: The total on this one is 66 for the first half, which is right where I also have it.

Cleveland State at Kent State: The first-half total of this one is 63.5 and I made the number 67.

Missouri at Temple: The first-half total in this one is hovering right around 58.5 and I made this one 56 with two pretty solid defensive teams, although that number is pretty low.

Colorado State at Boise State: The first-half total in this one is 66.5 and I have it at 65, so too close for comfort in this one.

Little Rock at North Texas: The first-half total in this one is a miniscule 56, while I have it even lower at 51.

Arkansas at Western Kentucky: The first-half total on this one is 64.5, while I made it 61, so not much room for error in this spot.

Fresno at Utah State: The first-half total of this one is 64.5 and I made it 67, so nothing happening in this one.

Hawaii at Oregon: The number in this one is 63.5 and I have it at 64, with the Ducks doing the majority of the offensive work, so will stay clear of this one.

Colorado at Kansas: The first-half total on this one is at 65 and I have it at 60.

END OF DEC. 7 PICKS

It wasn’t easy, but we managed to sneak over the number last night, and now have another small slate of games on tap for Friday.

Iowa at Michigan: The first-half total in this one is 67.5 and I have it at 78, although Iowa is a lower-scoring squad on the road and will stay away.

Tenn-Martin at Central Michigan: The first-half total in this one is a lofty 79.5, but I made this one 103, so will go ahead and take the over in this one.

Providence at Rhode Island: We’re looking at a total of 67 in this one, which is exactly where I have it, so nothing happening in this one.

Duke at Virginia Tech: The first half total in this one is 66.5 and I have it at 70, but Duke has played lower-scoring contests away from home, while the Hokies have seen fewer points when they’re at home, so one I’d stay clear of.

Dartmouth at South Florida: The number in this one is 56, while I have it at 60. Dartmouth really doesn’t have any significant home vs. away differences, while South Florida does score a few more points in the first half when they’re at home.

Chicago State at Tennessee State: The first half number in this one is 71 and I have it at 78, with Tenn State doing the vast majority of the work. Chicago State’s lack of scoring is a little worrisome in this one.

Pittsburgh at Louisville: The first-half total in this one is 59 and I have it at 54, and neither team really doesn’t have any significant home vs. away differences.

Idaho State at Pepperdine: The first half total in this one is 69.5 and I made it 68, so nothing really of note here, with Pepperdine playing slightly lower-scoring games at home.

USC at TCU: The first half total in this one is 64 and I have it at 68. Both teams tend to play slightly higher-scoring games in tonight’s location – USC on the road and TCU at home.

North Dakota at Montana: The first half number in this one is 61.5 and I have it at 63, so not much room for error here.

Northridge at Portland State: The first-half total here is 75.5 and I made it 84. Northridge is virtually the same regardless of location, while Portland plays a little lower-scoring games at home.

END OF DEC. 6 PICKS

We slightly changed the name of this one, as even though it was devoted to totals, we focused on first-half totals, which are typically about 4 to 4.5 points less than half of the full-game totals. An example would be today’s Northern Illinois at St. Mary’s total, which is 130 for the full game and 61 for the first half. Since 65 is half of the 130 full-game projection, we’re looking at a first-half total of 4 points less than half the game total.

One area where we didn’t fare quite as well in last year was taking the under in some games that had extremely low totals, so we’ll see if we can’t fix that a bit this season. As always, this is somewhat of a work in progress, as we continue to build our statistical base as we get more games in the books.

Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State: The first half total on this one is 65.5 and I have it at 69 and both teams are pretty much where you’d expect them to be in terms of points scored and allowed in the first half compared to the full game, so one I’ll stay clear of.

Oklahoma at North Texas: Interesting one here, as the first-half total is 60.5 and I have it at 54. Oklahoma is a higher-scoring team in the second half, while the Sooner defense shows slight improvement in the final 20 minutes of the game, while North Texas also tends to start a bit slow, but makes up for it with solid defense in the opening half.

Furman at Auburn: The first half total in this one is 68 and I have it at 73, so will go ahead and take the over in this one. Furman is pretty much your average team in that they score slightly more in the second half and allow an extra point or two in the second half, while Auburn has been more of a first-half team, scoring more than half of its points in the first 20 minutes.

Northern Illinois at St. Mary’s: The first half total in this one came out at 61 and I have it at 64, as Northern Illinois has scored a little more than half of its points in the first half when they’re the road team and is pretty close to 50-50 on the season. St. Mary’s is pretty much your standard first-half vs. second-half team.

South Dakota State at Montana State: The first-half total here is 64.5 and I made it 64, so not much room for error in this one. The Bobcats have been a higher-scoring team at home, but a little hard to get excited about that due to having just played three home games.

 

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