NCAA Basketball Power Rating Plays 3/31/18


A 2-2 split on Friday, going 1-1 in both totals and sides and now we’ll look at the two games people have been waiting for, today’s Final Four games, which kick-off with Michigan and Loyola, followed by the big one of Kansas vs. Villanova.

Michigan vs. Loyola: The Wolverines are favored by 5.5 points and the total on this one is at 129.5, which has climbed slightly from the opening number of 128. There are a few 130s out there for those willing to shop a little bit. The Wolverines are a bit of a public choice in this one, although the betting is pretty equal, with Michigan getting roughly 55% of the wagers and the line has held pretty steady since it opened.
There’s no denying that Michigan played a much tougher slate than Loyola, although both teams are playing pretty well right now. When you factor in strength of schedule, the line is a little bit on the low side, but in no real hurry to lay points against a Loyola team that plays decent defense, but can also shoot the 3-pointer pretty well and this one could be decided by how many open looks Loyola gets on the long-range bombs. Both teams were strong on the road and in a game I’m not real thrilled with, would lean towards taking the points, as the Wolverines aren’t the best foul-shooting team around and that, coupled with Loyola’s 3-point shooting, could allow them to make up ground at the end.

Kasnas vs. Villanova: Excellent matchup here, as Villanova is favored by 5 and the total on the game is now 154.5. Villanova opened as 5-point favorites and the game has held steady, with Kansas getting the bulk of the wagers in this one. The line is pretty close to right where it should be, although a fair number of bettors seem to be taking Kansas on the belief that the line is just too high. I’ve never been a fan of taking underdogs that are receiving more than half of the wagers in a game, especially when it’s one of the big nationally televised games, so will have to take the Wildcats even though I have them winning by 3.5 and 4 points. It will be far from being a big play or even a regular play for that matter, but it’s always tough to pass on games once you get to this point of the season, so will likely wager one-half of a unit on the Wildcats.