NCAA Basketball Power Rating Plays 3/25/18


A split on our two plays Saturday, sneaking in there with Florida State and dropping the total on Liberty, as the Flames shot 56% from the field and 44% from 3-point range to do us in. We have just the two games today and they should be good ones.

Texas Tech vs. Villanova: The Wildcats are favored by 6.5 in a game that hasn’t really moved and the total has stayed at 144.5. Texas Tech comes into the game being known for their defense, as their offensive numbers are just a little bit better than average. The Red Raiders averaged 75 points per game against teams who allowed 72.4, but did shoot the ball better than expected, making 46.4% of their field goal attempts against teams who allowed 43.5% on the season and were also better on 3-pointers. Tech was at its best on the defensive side of things, however, holding foes to 11.6 fewer points than they averaged and teams were below their shooting percentages from the floor and in 3-pointers. The Raiders did play a slow, deliberate game, although that didn’t hurt Michigan or Loyola, who were No. 315 and No. 326 out of 351 teams in adjusted tempo.
The Wildcats are an offensive team first and foremost, hitting better than 50% from the field and 40% from the 3-point line and averaged 14.1 more points than opponents allowed. The Wildcats held foes to 6.1 fewer points than they averaged on defense and teams were below their averages on field goals and 3-pointers. The betting public is on Villanova pretty well to the tune of 64% and I made the Wildcats 6-point favorites so will take Texas Tech plus the points in this one.

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Duke vs. Kansas: Duke is favored by 3 and the total is 155.5, which is where it opened in a rematch of a great game back in November when Kansas came away with a 77-75 victory. Revenge will have nothing to do with this one, as if a team can’t get motivated here they have no business playing regardless of a revenge game or not. Duke was favored by 2 in the first game and the total was 167.5, which easily landed under. Kansas could have won by a bigger margin but Kansas was just 9 for 19 from the foul line and 2 for 17 in 3-pointers. The betting is pretty even in this one and I’ll skip the side. If I had to play, which I don’t and won’t would give the slightest of leans to Duke in pretty much of a toss-up.