NCAA Basketball Power Rating Plays 3/24/18


A split on our four plays Friday night and now we have just three games on the slate, two in the NCAA Tournament and a match-up between Central Michigan and Liberty in the CIT Tournament.

Florida State vs. Michigan: The Wolverines are playing solid and are favored by 4.5 and the total on the game is 143.5. The Wolverines jumped onto a lot of people’s radar after their win over Texas A & M, but NCAA Tournament favorites off a 90-plus point performance are just 12-18-1 against the spread and the public is all over the Wolverines to the tune of 70%. I made this one 76-73 in favor of Michigan, so will have to take Florida State in this one as a small underdog. The line could very well climb to 5 before tip-off on this one if the tide of Michigan money keeps coming in.

Other Games
Loyola vs. Kansas State: Kansas State is now favored by 1.5 after this game opened at even and the Wildcats are getting nearly two-thirds of the wagers, so the line move isn’t a surprise. Loyola has better numbers, but those were posted against suspect foes. At some point you would think Loyola will run out of steam, as well as luck, after posting wins of 1,2, and 1 point so far in the tournament. Neither team has had what you would call an extremely difficult time advancing here, as Loyola defeated Miami, Tennessee and Nevada, while Kansas State had Creighton, Maryland-Baltimore County and Kentucky on their schedule. Yes, Kentucky is a good team, but they’re not as good as previous editions and get by partly on name. This is a tough game to call, as favorites off an underdog win are 25-18-2 in the tournament and underdogs off back-to-back wins as underdogs are 33-25-1, so both teams in somewhat favorable positions.

Central Michigan at Liberty: Liberty is favored by 2.5, although several 2s are now popping up, and the total has been bet from 140 to 141.5 in a game I have Liberty winning 74-70. A game featuring contrasting styles, Central Michigan is coming off games of 94 and 98 points, while Liberty has allowed 64 or fewer points in its last five games and has played four straight unders, while Central is off five straight overs, allowing at least 89 points in each of the last three games. This is the third straight road game for CMU, who defeated IUPU-Fort Wayne and Wofford as 5.5-point underdogs. Liberty defeated North Carolina A & T last time out. The public is on Central Michigan pretty well, which is enough to keep me off of them.

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