Home NBA NBA Totals Picks Expert Over Under The Total Predictions 3/12/2020

NBA Totals Picks Expert Over Under The Total Predictions 3/12/2020

As I’m sure you’ve heard, all games have been postponed in the NBA, as the season has been suspended after Utah’s Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus, per The Associated Press.

We’ll be back when the games resume and will focus on college basketball.

END OF MARCH 12 REPORT

The NBA slide continued on Tuesday, dropping us to under .500 for the first time in quite a while, as we fell to 80-81. Memphis attempted 38 free throws in our game and team attempted 35 or more are 81-37-3 in totals and 33-14-2 when shooting 38 or more foul shots, so we were pretty much doomed from the start, but not much you can do about it.

No plays for today, but getting the numbers out and will come back and look at a few of the games.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

New York at Atlanta: This one has climbed 3 points from the opening number with more than 80% of the wagers on the over. The more recent numbers agree with the move and are calling for this one to end up in the 240s, but no real desire to get involved in this one.

Detroit at Philadelphia: The total here has dropped quite a bit and is hovering around 211.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for this one and will just stay away.

Denver at Dallas: A little surprised this one is as low as it is, with the number opening 219.5 and dropping to 218 even though we’ve seen more than 80% of the wagers on the over. The Mavs have a few players listed as questionable, while Denver isn’t reporting anything. All of my numbers are calling for this one to go over the total, but a little hesitant due to the line move, so will stay clear.

New Orleans at Sacramento: This one has also started to drop and is down to 232.5 or 233 at the majority of sportsbooks. The season numbers would call for this one to land under the total, but looking at the more recent scores would call for over prediction in this one.

END OF MARCH 11 PICKS

Definitely hit a rough patch in the NBA, as we’re all the way back down to .500 at 80-80, so time to get back on track here. Just posting numbers right now, then will come back with a look at some of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

A few small reverse moves on the day not a whole lot in the way of big moves in regards to NBA totals for the night.

Boston at Indiana: A slight move here from 215 to 214.5 even though 75% of the wagers have come in on the over. I have this one between 209 and 213, so not a whole lot in the way of value with the under here.

New York at Washington: This one has moved from 227 to 228.5 on pretty mixed betting, while I have it a few points lower, so again, not much value in this one and will respect the slight move to the over.

Minnesota at Houston: A high total of 246.5 in this one and we’ve seen several others in that range fall well under the number in the past week or so. But this could be an exception, as Minnesota’s defense is almost non-existent at times.

Orlando at Memphis: This one has been the biggest move of the night, dropping from 224 to 220 with 57% of the wagers on the under. Memphis has been playing solid on defense and has held some high-scoring teams down recently, so will take a shot on the under in this one.

Dallas at San Antonio: A little surprised to see the most recent numbers calling for this one to land well under the number, but would lean to the under if I really had to play this one. San Antonio has been making a little effort on the defensive side of things.

END OF MARCH 10 PICKS

Lost the total in ugly fashion on Sunday and won the side play to go to 80-79 on the season, which is well below where we need to be. Just getting the numbers posted right now and then will come back and look at the games on the small slate for Monday.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Charlotte at Atlanta: This one is down to 223.5 and the highest I have it is at 223, so going to take a shot on the under in this one. The Hornets have actually gone 6-5 over their last 11 games and they’ve done so by playing defense, going 2-9 in totals over that span. Teams tend to do what is working and for Charlotte that’s slowing things down. Atlanta won the first meeting between the teams 122-107 in Charlotte, so hoping the Hornets come out and stick with the slow-down defensive approach.

Toronto at Utah: Both teams have been scoring a little more lately and this one moved from 223.5 to 224 despite 70% of the wagers on the under, so somebody likes the over in this one. Looking at numbers from February and March would call for 226 points, but the other two sets of numbers are on the other side. No real opinion in this one, and the Jazz are 8-5 at home when the total is 220 or higher.

Milwaukee at Denver: The Bucks came out and completely stunk the place up last night defensively, allowing the Suns to score 47 points in the first quarter and they were never really in the game, despite closing the gap a little bit. This one opened at 219 and is now up to 222.5 even though the betting has been pretty much equal on the total. No real opinion on this one, as the Bucks can come out either way here and look to play defense or they may try to outscore Denver. Milwaukee is much better defensively and that would probably be their best bet.

END OF MARCH 9 PICKS

Just getting the numbers posted right now and will come back and look at a few of the games on the slate, as our NBA skid continued on Saturday, as we fell to 79-78, so definitely need another good run in the pros.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

The last couple of days we’ve lost with overs after seeing a good first half and then scoring come to an end in the second half. Last night’s Denver game was particularly painful, getting fewer than 90 points in the second half after 119 in the first half, but you’re not going to win many overs when you only have 20 attempted free throws in a game.

Oklahoma City at Boston: The total on this one is 219 and I have it 217 using season-to-date numbers, but have it at 227 and 231 using the more recent numbers, so will give the lean to the over in this one, but a little hesitant to play this one, as the Thunder can play a more defensive game if they really set out to. The same holds true for the Celtics, who are 7-10 at home in totals when the number is less than 220. The Thunder are 13-19 in totals as an underdog, so can’t really make this one more than a lean.

Milwaukee at Phoenix: This one is getting hammered to the over and is now 227 and i’ll go against the grain and take the under in this one. The Suns have been playing lower-scoring basketball lately, as have the Bucks. Milwaukee also has a game at Denver tomorrow and the Bucks are 4-4-1 in totals when they have a game the next day, so it’s not a case of them trying to save some energy on the defensive end. But Milwaukee could rest their starters a little more than normal if the opportunity presents itself.

Toronto at Sacramento: The total here is 226.5 and I can see it being a little on the low side, as Sacramento turned on a switch lately and has been playing more offensive-oriented games than they had at the start of the season. The Kings are 5-2 in totals at home when the number is 225 or higher, while the Raptors have some high-scoring road games this month. Lean to the over in this one, but that’s about it.

END OF MARCH 8 PICKS

Dismal showing in the NBA on Friday, dropping all three plays to fall to 79-77 on the season and college hoops weren’t much better, as we had our second 1-5 night in the past four days. We were 7-2 the other two days to stop the bleeding a little bit, but need to pick things up here. As usual, we’ll get all of the numbers posted and then come back with a look at the games.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Houston at Charlotte: This one did come out at 222.5 and is now 219 after the Rockets announced Westbrook will miss the game for rest. Not sure how much the Rockets will miss him, as Harden will probably attempt 35 shots himself. The Hornets have struggled to score lately, as you can tell by their most recent numbers and would lean to the under if I was going to play this one.

Denver at Cleveland: This one opened 218 and it’s still there with 60% of the wagers on the over. All three of my numbers agree, so going to take a shot on the over here. The Cavs have been able to hold banged-up Philadelphia down in scoring, but their previous six foes have all scored at least 112 points and think Denver can put some points up. The Cavs are 14-4 their last 18 games at home.

Atlanta at Memphis: The Grizzlies have gotten defense recently, holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 90 points. That all came to an end last night, as they allowed 121 to the Mavs, so hard to tell what they’re going to try and do in this one. The season to date numbers like the over, while the recent numbers like this one to land under the number.

Philadelphia at Golden State: This one has climbed a couple of points and I don’t really see it, due to the players the 76ers are missing, but the Warriors have lost their last 10 home games and if you can’t win, at least be entertaining, as six of the 10 have gone over. A game it’s probably best to stay away from.

END OF MARCH 7 PICKS

We won our lone NBA play on Thursday to move to 79-74 on the season and a pretty good number of games on Friday, with the potential NBA Finals preview between the Bucks and the Lakers the marquee game of the evening. As we often do, we’ll get all of our numbers posted and then come back with a look at some of the games and our plays for the evening.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Utah at Boston: All three of the different numbers like the over in this one and I agree, as I have it anywhere from 223 to 238. The Celtics have been playing a little more uptempo recently and are on a 10-4 totals run, while the Jazz have also seen a few more points in their road games lately. The Celtics can play defense, but appear to be saving it up for the playoffs.

Miami at New Orleans: This one has seen a pretty big drop, moving from 235.5 to 233 even though we’ve seen more wagers come in on the over than the under. Another case where the numbers all lean towards the over, but have to respect the line move here.

Orlando at Minnesota: We’ve talked about the Magic suddenly going to a faster-paced style and they’ve been lighting up the scoreboard pretty good, but not so sure they haven’t overcompensated for this one, as it’s a few points higher than my highest projection. The betting is pretty much split down the middle, so others are probably thinking the same thing in this one.

Milwaukee at Lakers: Huge move in the total here, as the number opened 223 and the line has climbed to 228 with 64% of the wagers coming in on the over. All of my numbers are in the range of 220, but the Bucks have been coasting a little bit on the road and not scoring what they’re capable of. The line move is bigger than it should be based on the betting, so will just stay away from this one, as it’s one of the few games you’ll probably want to watch with or without a wager going.

END OF MARCH 6 PICKS

We split our two NBA plays on Wednesday, losing the total and winning the side play and just four plays on Thursday’s schedule, with one decent game and a few duds. We’re 78-74 in the NBA, so a little work to do down the stretch.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Denver at Charlotte: This one is down to 207.5 and for the most part when oddsmakers are calling for a low-scoring game, they’ve been correct as totals of less than 208 have gone 10-17 this season. The season to date averages have this one sneaking over the total, while the more recent numbers are right where the line is at. If we look at just February and March scoring stats the projection is for this one to land under the number. So would probably lean to the under, but no real desire to play the game.

Los Angeles at Denver: This one opened 237 and is now 236.5 with a few more over wagers coming in than under bets, although it is pretty close. I have this one to just sneak under the total and will go ahead and play the under in this one. The Clippers have been a good under team on the road when they’re expected to have a tough game. As a favorite of 1.5 points or less, or as a road dog, Los Angeles is 1-8 in totals, with the lone over coming in their double-overtime game against the Celtics. The Rockets are a bit similar, as in home games where they’re favored by 3 points or less, or are underdogs, they’ve gone 1-4 in totals.

Philadelphia at Sacramento: We’re on both sides of this one, with the season to date numbers calling for the under and the most recent numbers like the over. Hard to get involved with Philadelphia right now due to their injury situation and the line has dropped from its opening of 221.5 to 218.5 with just 55% of the wagers on the under, although that could have more to do with Josh Richardson joining the other 76ers on the injured list and he will miss tonight’s game.

Toronto at Golden State: This one has been climbing and all of the numbers like the under, but the Raptors have shown a tendency to go out and have a little bit of offensive fun when they’re expected to have somewhat of an easy time on the road. In all games as a road favorite, Toronto is just 7-8 in totals, but when favored by 5 or more points, the Raptors have gone 6-0, so no real interest in the under in this one.

END OF MARCH 5 PICKS

Pretty bad night all the way around in hoops, with our split in the NBA totals the highlight of the evening. We’re now down to 77-73 with the NBA plays this season. Running a bit late, so getting the numbers up and then coming back with a last look at the lines and then going into some of the games on the schedule. Did make one change in the last column of the totals, as we’re looking at games from February and March only.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Boston at Cleveland: Both teams have been a bit of a scoring tear, but the Celtics will be short-handed for this one, which makes it a little hard to guess how the game will be played out. One of those games where it’s not a bad idea to just stay away due to the uncertainty involved.

Oklahoma City at Detroit: This one just dropped to 211.5 with 55% of the wagers coming in on the under and the Thunder may be looking to play better defense than they have been. Oklahoma City’s most-recent numbers are a little out of kilter due to the beating they took at the hands of Milwaukee, so will just stay away from this one here.

Chicago at Minnesota: This one is now flirting with the 230 mark and if you look at the season-to-date numbers, it calls for the game to fall well under the total, but it’s the exact opposite for the more recent numbers, which have a projection of more than 240 points. Will just stay away from this one.

New Orleans at Dallas: This is another one where the more recent numbers are calling for a game to land over the total, while the season to date numbers are on the opposite side. Could see this one going over in New Orleans is able to force the issue a little bit.

Washington at Portland: This one is now 241 and see no reason to get off the Washington over bandwagon now. The more recent projection is calling for the game to just sneak over the total, although the Blazers did have a couple of home games against teams like Detroit, Utah and Miami, so it may be a little lower than it should be, but will go ahead and take the over here and hope to see the Wizards continue to score and allow.

 

END OF MARCH 4 PICKS

Split in our two totals on Monday, with neither of them being particularly close, which is nice when you’re on the right side, but blows when you’re on the wrong side, which was the case with the Atlanta game, as the Hawks turned in one of their shooting efforts of the season against a team that doesn’t play defense. We dropped to 76-70 on the season.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Brooklyn at Boston: This one is 221.5 and both of our projections are calling for the over, but a little hard to make a play here, as the one thing the Celtics have done when avenging a loss is play defense, which they don’t always do, but can do so pretty well when they put their minds to it. Boston is 6-14-1 when playing a team that defeated them the previous meeting, which covering the spread at a 70% clip as well. Obviously, those percentages also go back to last year, as the Celtics appear to have pretty good memories about what happened earlier.

Minnesota at New Orleans: This one looks as though it will go off as the highest total we’ve had all year and the numbers both like it go over, but not about to play this one, as we’ve seen a couple of games the past few nights fall well short of lofty totals and was on the wrong side of one of them last night. That said, if I had to play, would probably go towards the over, but no rush to make a play on this one.

Toronto at Phoenix: The total on this one jumped up to 225 after being 222 on the overnight line and that’s enough for me to take a shot on the under in this one, as the Suns have been playing a bit lower-scoring games recently and the Raptors can play defense. The Raptors were lit up by the Denver Nuggets the last time they played, allowing 133 points and think they’ll put a little more focus on the defensive side of things, as that was their worst defensive effort of the season and the first time they’ve allowed 130 or more points.

Washington at Sacramento: This one has inched upwards to 233.5 and both numbers like the over in this one, so will go ahead and follow suit and take the over here. The Wizards continue to have an aversion to defense and think the Kings will be happy to get out and play an uptempo game and give the home fans something to get excited about. The Wizards haven’t played an under game on the road with a total of 230 or higher since December and are 14-2 on the season, so it seems as though the home teams are happy to play along.

END OF MARCH 3 PICKS

We split our two NBA plays on Sunday and now have a decent slate of games for Monday, with the game between Milwaukee and Miami the best of the bunch. We’ll continue to show the projections using more recent numbers, as they haven’t fared all that badly and that probably provides a little more information than the average scoring projection, which also used numbers for the entire season.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Portland at Orlando: Even with Orlando’s recent scoring outburst being taken into consideration, the numbers are still calling for this one to land under the total, but not so sure I agree, as the Blazers could be a willing participant in a running game in this one. The Magic have also seen more points in February than in January, as they were still playing their typical slowdown style for the first month of the year.

Utah at Cleveland: The total here is up to 220 from its opening of 219 and the betting has been pretty well split down the middle. The season to date averages have this one sneaking over the total with 221 points, but the most recent scoring averages have this one with quite a few more points, so will go ahead and take the over 220 in this one.

Memphis at Atlanta: The total here is 240.5 and our season to date averages have this one landing at 235, while using numbers from this year has a projection of 255 points. A lot of our totals aren’t showing the biggest of differences, but this is showing a 20-point difference, which is obviously significant. The two teams have only played to a total of 240 or higher three times combined this season, but all three games have landed over the number. Going to take a stab on the over here, as there should be plenty of scoring in this one.

END OF MARCH 2 PICKS

We’re losing value here in a hurry with our totals plays, so will hurry and get to it after splitting our two NBA plays on Saturday.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Milwaukee at Charlotte: This one just hit 218.5 and I have it slightly lower, but really want no part of the over in this one. The Bucks won 116-103 last month in Charlotte and could see a similar type of game in this one. The Hornets have struggled to score a little bit as of late and the Bucks can play defense when they want to.

Dallas at Minnesota: No interest in playing this one, but it’s the third highest total we’ve seen this year and the two games higher landed under the number. If I had to play it, would probably lean that way, but not a game to get too excited about.

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans: This one just climbed to 235.5 and I have it going over the number with both projections, but the Lakers are 2-5 in totals when the number is 230 or higher, so not so sure if they’ll try to slow things down a little bit to keep New Orleans from running up and down the court. Two of the three games have landed under the number so far this season. Los Angeles is 4-3 when playing the second of a back-to-back situation.

Washington at Golden State: This one was 228.5 earlier this morning and is now up to 231.5 and I’ll go ahead and take the over in this one. The Warriors are 6-1 in totals when the number is 230 or higher and have gone 7-5 in totals after a rare victory. The Warriors are 4-2 in totals when playing with no rest and there’s been a minimum of 240 points the last three meetings between the two.

END OF MARCH 1 PICKS

Was way off the mark with both NBA plays on Friday, with neither being close, which is going to happen from time-to-time. Somewhat like we did during the WNBA season, we’re seeing a scoring increase in the middle of the season and the sheer number of games that have already been played means that averages are going to change slowly. Scoring is up 3.4 points per game in February over the season average at 226 points per game.

So in the last column of our totals chart, you’ll notice a little bit of a change in that we have projections using numbers from January and February only. Some games it didn’t make a big difference, but in others, the difference in projections was close to 10 points.

Most games don’t have numbers posted yet, but wanted to get this up early and will come back after lines are put up and have settled in a little bit.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Indiana at Cleveland: This one is holding pretty steady at 215 with 57% of the wagers on the under. I have this one at 218 and if we look at the more recent numbers this one shoots up to 227. These two haven’t met since November and their two games have landed under the total, but we do get a few conflicts with the Pacers, who are 15-19-1 in totals after a win, but also 5-7 in division play, seeing a scoring reduction of 5.4 points and holding teams to 1.4 fewer points. The Cavs are the opposite, scoring 2.7 more points in division games, but allowing .2 fewer. The Cavs are 24-16-1 after a loss.

Orlando at San Antonio: This one surprised me a bit, as the Magic have been on a scoring tear, but using numbers from the last two months actually sees fewer points being scored than their overall numbers, although the Spurs have something to do with that. Still, no real interest in playing this one, especially with the Spurs 21-10-1 in totals after a loss.

Golden State at Phoenix: This one is 224 and I have landing under the number with both numbers and will take the under here. The Warriors are 2-9 in division games, while the Sun are 4-9. Phoenix has been playing better defensively lately and all three games between the two have landed under so far this season, although the total is three points lower than it was when the teams met here a couple of weeks ago.

END OF FEB. 29 PICKS

We stayed away from Thursday’s four games and now have one play for Friday in one of those games where if you’re on the wrong side, you want to kick yourself in the butt, but if you stay away and it comes through, you also want to kick yourself. As we frequently do, we’ll list the numbers and the plays and I’ll come right back and look at a few other games and why we stayed away even though there was a bit of a difference between the total and our projections.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Minnesota at Orlando: This one just dropped to 233.5 and I have it much lower, so going to take the under here. My biggest concern was that Orlando has been playing some high-scoring games recently and they’ve been winning and teams have a tendency to stick with what is working, but think the ‘Wolves victory at Miami was a bit of an eye-opened for the Magic and they’ll try to avoid getting caught-up in an uptempo game and will try to play their style of basketball.

Oklahoma City at Milwaukee: This one keeps being bet up and the number has now hit 230 at most places, with a few having bumped it to 230.5 and not sure that’s the correct move. The Thunder can play defense when they want to, as can Milwaukee. Oklahoma City is 2-7-1 in road totals when the number is 220 or higher, so would probably lean to the under in this one, although in no rush to play the total in this game, as I have a side wager going on.

Denver at Clippers: The wise guys have hit the under in this one, although they were playing it when the number was 222.5, which is where it opened. It did hit 218.5 and has since come back up to 219 or 219.5 with a little more than 70% of the wagers on the over. Both of my numbers are calling for the over in this one, but you have to respect the line move in this one and the Clippers have gone under the total in six of their last seven games against teams they lost to in the previous meeting. The Nuggets can play defense, but Los Angeles is doing so at certain times, so would give the nod to the under if I really had to play it.

END OF FEB. 28 PICKS

Unfortunately the injuries in today’s games not only affect the sides, they also take their toll on the totals, and it does become a little bit of a guessing game in relation to what teams are going to try and do, but we’ll take a quick look at at all four games and hopefully find something that you can use with your handicapping, as we’ll have slight leans, but that’s about it on this card.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

New York at Philadelphia: When Embiid is out for the 76ers it’s always tough to gauge how that will have an impact on the total, as not only can he play offense, he’s also strong on defense and his absence hurts the 76ers both ways. The last two games between these two have seen less than 200 points, but this is the third game in four nights for both teams. The 76ers have shown some over tendencies after a loss and in the second of a back-to-back situation, but no interest in this one, as it’s difficult to figure out what each team is going to try and do.

Sacramento at Oklahoma City: This one is still at 222.5, which is where it opened and more than 80% of the wagers have come in on the over. Oklahoma City typically plays lower-scoring games at home, but both teams have been on a bit of a scoring tear lately. Our numbers are pretty close to the total, but I’d probably give the slightest of leans to the under if I wanted to do something on the total here.

Portland at Indiana: Our numbers are on both sides of the total here, but would give a slight lean to the under if I had to play it. Portland put up 139 points the last time the teams met and that’s the most points the Pacers have allowed this season, so have to think they’ll come out and try to play defense. Indiana has only allowed 125 or more points twice all season, the game against the Blazers and the recent game at Toronto. The total is a little too close to our projections, so nothing more than a slight lean, although this is looking like a night to either stick to college hoops or just take a rare day until the schedule picks back up tomorrow.

Lakers at Golden State: This one has dropped to 222.5 to reflect the loss of LeBron, although not entirely sure I agree with the move, as James can play a little defense when he wants to. The Warriors have played better defense the last two games, but the offense hasn’t been there.

END OF FEB. 27 PICKS

Used the wrong table on Tuesday, not that it made any difference in the article, or the dismal result, but want to get this up now, so I’m back on track with the charts, and I’ll be back with our standard looks at some of the games in a bit.

We dropped our lone NBA play on Tuesday and went 2-0-1 in colleges, so I’ll gladly take it and we’ll head into Wednesday’s games, where we’ll have nine games in the NBA.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Philadelphia at Cleveland: We’ve seen the total in this one drop from 219.5 to 216.5 even though a little bit more than 60% of the wagers have come in on the over. The line movement may have more to do with the loss of Ben Simmons by the 76ers than anything else. Both of my numbers are right around the total and will just stay clear of this one.

Brooklyn at Washington: A slight drop in this one from 235 to 234 even though we’re seeing about 55% of the wagers on the over. Both numbers are calling for an under, although the Wizards make it difficult to go that way at times. The Nets got away from playing defense against Orlando and tried to outscore them and the end result was a predictable loss. Will be curious to see how they approach this one.

Memphis at Houston: This one has climbed from 234.5 to 237.5 with close to 60% of the wagers on the over, so the line move is a little more than the betting patterns would indicate. Can’t blame anybody who likes the over in this one, as both teams quite a few more points of their division games, although it really hasn’t translated to many more overs coming through.

Los Angeles at Phoenix: We’ve lost a little bit of value in this one but will still go ahead and take the under in this one, as the total has moved from 234.5 to 232 despite more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. Both teams see one-third of their division games land over the total, with the Clippers going 3-6 and the Suns 4-8.

END OF FEB. 26 PICKS

We stayed away yesterday and it was probably for the best, as seven of the eight games landed over the total and the majority of our plays have been under wagers, which will be the case today. Sometimes, no bet is the best bet you can make.

We have seven games on the slate and a couple of interesting ones, at least from a betting perspective, although there are a pair of decent games from a fan’s perspective, as well.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Milwaukee at Toronto: The game of the day, the total in this one is a little on the high side, as both teams can play defense when they really want to, but with the Bucks pretty much having the Eastern Conference top seed wrapped up, there’s no real need for an intense games here, although it is a revenge game for the Raptors, as they lost to Milwaukee the previous time they met during the regular season, although the Bucks probably still have the playoffs on their mind. If I absolutely had to play this one, would probably take the under here, as there are definite conflicting trends on the side.

Oklahoma City at Chicago: This one is 217.5 with a small majority of the wagers on the over and both of my numbers are calling for the under in this one, and there are some trends that points the same way. Oklahoma City is 5-9-1 in away totals when the total is 215 or higher and also 15-19 after a win, while the Bulls are 7-12 in totals following a victory, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under 217.5 in this one.

Detroit at Denver: This one is coming down a little bit and my numbers are split, but a little hesitant to take the under here, with the Nuggets playing a little higher-scoring style of basketball lately.

New Orleans at Los Angeles: This one keeps climbing and it’s really up to the Lakers whether this one lands over or under the total. The Lakers can play strong on both ends of the court, while the Pelicans will try and force an uptempo contest. If the Lakers decide to play that style, this one could be a shootout, but Los Angeles can also play their game and keep it well under the total. The Lakers won the last meeting between the two, so they may be a little more inclined to play a higher-scoring game.

END OF FEB. 25 PICKS

No totals plays on Sunday as we ended up splitting our NBA side plays on Sunday. Even though we have eight games on today’s schedule, not really enamored with the card for Monday, as we’ve gotten a little more selective here, so it will be another case where we have nothing on the totals and two plays on the sides.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Milwaukee at Washington: This one is now hovering in the area of 242 and obviously both of my numbers are going to be calling for this one to land on the under, but you can also make a case for the over, as the Bucks are 14-6 in totals after back-to-back wins or double digits, while the Wizards are 5-2 in totals when playing with no rest. The Bucks visit Toronto tomorrow night and could elect to save a little energy on the defensive side, so won’t take a stand on this one.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: This is one where I wanted to play the under, but a little put off by Philadelphia’s 7-2 totals record when favored at home by 8 or more points, which is the case in this one. The 76ers are also 8-2 at home after a loss, so with conflicting trends and numbers, will just stay away.

Orlando at Brooklyn: The Magic have’t played very good defense the past few games and it’s hurt them a bit, while the Nets have been winning and also playing on both sides of the ball. My two numbers are split on this one, but am more interested in seeing how the Nets approach this game and if they try to keep playing tough on the defensive end, as it could be a clue of how they’ll approach the next couple of weeks.

Minnesota at Dallas: Another game where the trends and the numbers disagree and it will be enough to keep off of this one, as the numbers are calling for an under, but hard to take Minnesota to land under the total, as they’re 4-0 when the number is 235 or higher and

Memphis at Clippers: The Clippers played a little better defensively last time out against the Kings, but couldn’t score, and now they’re in a similar situation, hosting a Memphis team that dropped 140 on them the last time the teams met. Have to think we’ll see a better offensive performance against the Grizzlies than we did against the Kings, but it’s still a steep number.

END OF FEB. 24 PICKS

We won both NBA plays on Saturday and are now faced with another case where a line just moved a couple of points against us as I was in the middle of writing this, although it’s more of a reflection of Kemba Walker being out than it is sharp money coming in. Still, will just stay away from the totals today and we’ll have two ugly side plays.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Boston at Los Angeles: The total on this one moved from 227 to 224.5 with news that Walker won’t be playing and both of my numbers have this one landing well under the total. While Walker is a scorer, his defense has actually been pretty decent this year, so it’s hard to predict what type of impact his absence will have in this one. I was going to take the under in this one, but much like the last Boston game, will just stay away. The Celtics are 2-8 in totals as a road underdog, but have gone 8-5 after allowing 115 or more points. It is a big game on TV, so if I really wanted to have a wager on the game, would lean to the under, but most likely will just be staying away myself.

Minnesota at Denver: This one also dropped on news that D’Angelo Russell will miss the game, although the drop was five full points, so pretty significant there. The Nuggets have been a lower-scoring team in division games, going 2-8 in totals, while Minnesota follows the same pattern and is just 3-8 in totals in their division games. But the total is now lower than both of our projections, so will just stay clear of this one.

San Antonio at Oklahoma City: Both numbers are calling for the over in this one, but this is one of those games where you get two conflicting opinions and just end up passing the game. The Spurs are 14-6 when the total is higher than 221 and they’re on the road, while the Thunder have gone 3-7 when the total is higher than 221 and they’re at home. Will just stay away in this one.

New Orleans at Golden State: This one just climbed to 239 and both numbers have it landing well under the total, but we’ve talked about how the Pelicans have been been a higher-scoring team now that they have everybody in the line-up. Throw in the fact that Golden State is 7-3 in totals after a 20-point loss and 3-0 after a 30-point loss and don’t really want to get involved in the total of this one.

END OF FEB. 23 PICKS

We’re 68-61 with our NBA plays after passing with our totals last night, catching a bit of a break when the Celtics total dropped, which was enough to keep us off the game, which saw 139 points in the second and third quarters after a 44-point first quarter. Just one play for tonight.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Sacramento at Clippers: The Clippers finally begin the second half of their season after having the first two days off, which also eliminates one of our trends that we follow, which is the Clippers are just 1-8 in totals after scoring 130 or more points. But with the break, that one is pretty much nullified. The numbers are calling for the under, but if the Clippers get the chance to pile on the points think they will do so after losing by more than 20 points here to the Kings the last time they met. The Kings are coming off a 129-125 over Memphis and sometimes when teams are coming off high-scoring wins they try to play uptempo the following game, so will pass.

Dallas at Atlanta: This one looks like it’s hitting 240.5 at some places and the numbers are split on this one. It’s easy to see plenty of points in this one. The teams played a 123-100 game earlier this season, but lean to the over here, although won’t be playing it.

Phoenix at Chicago: This one has been bet up from 219.5 to 222 and will go ahead and take a shot on the under in this one. The Suns don’t score quite as many points and people seem to think, while the Bulls do play better defensively at home. They had a rough road trip, where they were allowing 120-plus points on a frequent basis, but think they’ll play a better all-around game in this one.

Philadelphia at Milwaukee: This one is at 227 and both numbers have it at 224, so probably a slight lean to the under in this one. The 76ers have held the Bucks to 110.5 points per game in their two meetings this season, but have been up and down in theor scoring, which is why the teams are 1-1 against each other.

END OF FEB. 22 PICKS

A split in the NBA last night, as we move to 67-61 for the season and let time get away from me a little bit here, so going to post all of the numbers and then come right back and take a look at some of the games and have our plays shortly. We lost a couple of points on the game I was looking at, so nothing official today, but a few interesting trends that we’ll take a look at here despite no official plays.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Cleveland at Washington: This is the highest total the Cavaliers have played to all season. But if there’s one team that can make another look like a bunch off All-Stars offensively, it’s the Washington Wizards. Still, it does take a little nerve to need some points out of the Cavs. Even though both numbers like the under, no real interest in playing this one.

Indiana at New York: The public is hitting the over in this one pretty hard, but the line is holding stead for the most part, so there is a little bit of resistance. I’m on both sides of the total, so will just go ahead and stay away from this one.

Boston at Minnesota: This is the one I really wanted to play, but after moving from 228.5 to its current 226.5, we’ve basically lost almost all of the value with the under, so will just live to fight another day. The Celtics are 2-7 in totals when playing with at least two days rest, so coming off the break, they should be good to go defensively. Minnesota is a little unpredictable when it comes to totals, but they play a little better defensively when rested, as they were 4-6 in totals with at least two days off.

 Denver at Oklahoma City: This one has finally inched up to 215.5 after opening at 215 and staying there all morning despite more than 80% of the wagers on the over. Both numbers are calling for an over, but no interest in getting involved with the total in this one.

Memphis at Lakers: This one just climbed to 234.5 and would like to take the under here, as the Lakers actually can play some defense, but the Grizzlies are 7-0 in totals when playing with no rest and not eager to buck that trend in this spot.

END OF FEB. 21 PICKS

Back to the daily grind known as the NBA and we have six games on the schedule. So far this season, we’re 66-60, so right at the break even point, and will need to pick it up a little bit down the stretch. Last season, totals were 1-5 on the return after the All-Star break, but 7-2 the following day. The previous two seasons were over years, with 2016-17 being a good year for unders, so probably really can’t take too much from that.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Milwaukee at Detroit: The total in this one opened 224.5 and just hit 225.5, so the numbers have a slight lean to the under here. The Pistons are 9-4 in totals when the total is 225 or greater and the Bucks are 20-13-1, so the trends point in the other direction and will just stay clear of this one.

Miami at Atlanta: This one opened 229.5 and has been bet up to 230.5 with close to 75% of the wagers landing on the over so far. Both numbers are calling for this one to land a bit under the total. This is the first away game for the Heat all season with a total of 230 or higher and the Heat typically don’t play as good of defense when they’re on the road, while the Hawks are 12-6-1 with a total of 230 or higher and 6-2-1 at home, so another game with conflicting numbers and trends.

Charlotte at Chicago: The total here has moved from its opening of 209 to 210 and my numbers are on both sides, so a pass in this one. The Hornets are 21-19 with a total of 210 or higher and 15-10 on the road, while the Bulls are 11-13-1 at home with a total of 210 or higher, so nothing really to go on here.

Brooklyn at Philadelphia: This one has moved from 219 to 215.5 with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over, so no interest in the over here even though both numbers are pointing in that direction. The 76ers have gone 6-6 at home with a total of 215 or higher. The total was 221.5 when the teams met here last month and the game managed to sneak over the total by 1.5 points thanks to a 68-64 halftime score.

Memphis at Sacramento: This one opened at 229 and is still there with 70% of the wagers on the over. Both numbers are calling for the under, but Memphis is a bit of a different team now that everybody is healthy. This is the highest home total the Kings have had all season. Memphis did play some decent defense right before the break and went 4-1 straight-up, so going to take a shot on the under in this one and hope the Grizzlies look to continue playing on both ends of the court.

Houston at Golden State: Conflicting numbers and conflicting trends in this one, which has been bet up two points to 232.5. Houston is just 5-10-1 on the road with a total of 230 or higher, but the Warriors are a perfect 5-0 when the total is 230 or higher, so this one becomes a quick pass.

END OF FEB. 20 PICKS

Something happened where I lost my article here, so will give a quick look at the two games and then come back with a little more detail. Still have no idea what I did, but time to get going on the new article.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Los Angeles at Boston: This one is at 227 and you can make a bit of a case for both the over and the under and don’t really like this one, so will be passing here. The Clippers have been a pretty solid under team when they’re road underdogs, as they’re 0-5 and they are 8-8 in totals after a loss. The Celtics scare me a little bit, as they’re typically a defensively oriented squad, but stray away from that style of play at times and don’t mind getting up-and-down the court when the opportunity presents itself.

Boston is just 1-2 when playing to a total of 227 or higher at home, but they’ve gone 6-1 in totals when playing at home after a loss, where they average 119.4 points and allow more than 112, both of which are higher than their overall season averages at home. Way too many conflicting trends here and will pass.

Oklahoma City at New Orleans: This one is 231.5 and will be on the under in this game. A bit too high for my liking and think the Thunder will try to avoid a running game. The first three games between the two teams did land under the total, but the Pelicans are at full strength in this one and Williamson is coming off a pretty solid outing.

Oklahoma City is 3-4-1 when playing on the road after a loss and this total is a little too high compared to what the Thunder typically play to. Oklahoma City is 2-6 in totals when playing to a total of 225 or higher and 1-3 when they’re on the road and the total is 225 or higher. This is the highest total the Thunder have seen all year.

New Orleans is solid after a win in totals, going 14-8-1, but think the Thunder will try to keep this one from turning into a track meet.

END OF FEB. 13 PICKS

We followed up Monday’s dismal 1-4 showing with a 6-0 effort last night, which is always nice to do. Huge slate of games tonight and I’d actually rather have about a six or seven game slate, so will see what we can come up with for tonight.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Atlanta at Cleveland: This one is up to 234.5 and both of my numbers like the under in this one, but the Cavs are 2-0 when the total is 230 or more, so while it’s a situation they’re not in very often, they have shown the ability to score some points, but allow even more.

Washington at New York: This one is up to 229.5 and it’s a bit like the game directly above, in that the Knicks don’t see totals that high very often, but when they do, they’ve gone 6-4 in totals.

Toronto at Brooklyn: This one opened 224 and saw 60% of the wagers on the over, so the majority of sportsbooks have moved the line up to 224.5, although a few are holding at 224. The Nets have been a solid under team after a win, going 8-15 and think this will be a decent game, so will take a shot on the under in this one. The Raptors are 1-5 in totals when they are favored by 4 points or less on the road.

Sacramento at Dallas: Doncic is expected to return for the Mavs, but still think the total here is a little bit on the high side, which is reflected in the numbers. For some reason, the Mavs are a better team away from home, where they score more, while the Kings don’t see much of a difference in their total points regardless of location.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver: This one is 222 and the Nuggets are 1-5-2 when the total is 220 or higher at home. Denver prides itself on defense and the Lakers can play defense themselves and think they will look to make some amends after allowing 128 to Denver the last time the teams met in Los Angeles. Lean to the under in this one, but that’s about it.

END OF FEB. 12 PICKS

Was completely off the mark with the total in the Orlando game last night, part of an ugly 1-4 night, which thankfully, we hadn’t had in a while, although that doesn’t make it any better when you do have them. Just five games in the NBA tonight, but a couple of games with some interesting totals trends, so will see how it goes.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards: The total on this one opened at 228.5 and has been bet up to 230 with roughly two-thirds of the wagers on the over. Even though both numbers are calling for for this one to land under the total, not sure sure that’s the correct side in this one. Both teams have some solid over trends after a loss, with Chicago going 19-14-1 and the Wizards are 21-11. It’s a high total for Chicago, but the Bulls are 2-1 with a total of 230 or higher. Will pass due to conflicting numbers and trends.

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers: The total in this one came out at 225.5 and is now 224.5 despite the fact that more than 70% of the early wagers are on the over. My numbers are split on this one, but like the under in this spot. The Clippers have had a tendency to play ‘playoff style’ basketball in games that are projected to be close. If the Clippers are favored by 1.5 or less, or are underdogs, Los Angeles has gone 1-8 in totals and LA is 15-20-1 in totals after a victory, so will play the under 224.5 in this one.

Portland at New Orleans: This one came out a little bit late and is at 240, while both numbers are calling for this one to land under the total. Portland is 14-9-1 in totals after a win, but despite their reputation as a high-scoring team, the Blazers are 0-3 when the total is 235 or greater, so will just stay away from this one.

San Antonio at Oklahoma City: The total here has moved from 221 to 220 with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. I have both numbers leaning to the over in this one but we definitely get some conflicting trends, with the Spurs being 5-1 in totals when playing with no rest and 21-9 after a loss, but the Thunder have gone 6-14 when the total is 220 or higher, so will pass on this one.

Boston at Houston: This one is at 232, which is up from its opening of 230, and two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over. I have this one landing under the number, but the Celtics are 2-1-1 when playing to a total of 230 or higher and don’t mind running and having some fun playing once in a while, so another one that becomes a pass.

END OF FEB. 11 PICKS

Big slate of NBA games for Monday, as the schedule will be fairly full the next few days with the all-star break coming up. Lots of movement in totals today, with players possibly sitting out and the other things that take place before the all-star break.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Brooklyn at Indiana: Both teams have shown over tendencies after a loss, but that hasn’t stopped the line from dropping down from 220.5 to 217.5 even though the majority of wagers have come in on the over. We’re a little too close to the number to take a stand on this one, so will be an easy pass.

Atlanta at Orlando: The total here opened 222 and is now down to 219 with 58% of the wagers on the under, so the betting percentages don’t quite justify a 3-point move in this one. Both numbers have this one landing under the total and there are also a few trends that point the same direction, so will take a shot on the under 219 in this one.

Charlotte at Detroit: Another 3-point move towards the under in this one even though we’re seeing more than 65% of the wagers come in on the over. While both numbers are calling for the over in this one, the injuries will be enough to keep me away.

Minnesota at Toronto: Another three-point move in this one, but this time the line has move up, opening at 227 and climbing to 230 with 70% of the bets coming in on the over. My numbers are split on this one, so just a game I’ll stay clear of.

Utah at Dallas: This one has really dropped, as the overnight line was 222 and it came out at 220.5 when the regular lines were posted and has still dropped three points despite more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over, so another game where who isn’t playing is having a bigger impact on the total than who is playing.

Phoenix at Lakers: The total in this one came out at 227 and is up to 228.5 with close to 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. Both of my numbers are calling for the under in this one. Home teams who allowed 120 or more points last time on the court in a winning effort are 122-146-7 (45.5%) in totals the next time, so a little trend that supports that side. Would lean to the under in this one, but that’s about it.

END OF FEB. 10 PICKS

Won both of our totals play on Saturday, but today’s card is quite a bit tougher and no official plays, just a couple of leans, but no reason to make a play for the sole reason of making a wager. This can be a tough week, as players start to think about the all-star break a little bit early and for the majority of players in the league, it’s a chance to get away from the grind for a few days and see family and friends.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

New York at Atlanta: The total in this one opened 225 and is now 226.5 with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. The Knicks don’t see such high totals put on their games very often, but they have gone 4-3 when the total is greater than 225. Atlanta usually plays to higher totals and the Hawks are 13-17 when the total is less than 228.

Memphis at Washington: This one came out at 240 and stayed there for the majority of the morning but more over wagers started coming in, which has pushed the total to 240.5, down from the 241.5 it previously reached. Games with total of 240 or greater are 6-6 for the season and the Wizards have been involved in five of them, with those games going 4-1 in totals, but the lone loss for Washington came eight days ago against the Nets.

Utah at Houston: This is the highest total the Jazz have seen all year, but Utah is 4-2 when the total is 225 or higher. This one is a little on the high side, but the Rockets may score a few points after trading Capela and the Jazz are willing to run at times. The Jazz aren’t playing very well and the Rockets have gone 2-0 in totals after being held to under 100 points, averaging 129 points in those two games. Would lean to the over if I really had to play this one, but will just sit back and watch with plenty of other games going for the day.

Miami at Portland: The Blazers are 14-6 in home totals when the number is less than 230, so would definitely lean that way in this one if I had to play the total here. Miami will be missing Butler for this one, however, and have a few other players not at full strength, so will stay clear of the total in this one.

END OF FEB. 9 PICKS

We won both college plays Friday but came up short with both of our NBA plays, for a 2-2 night overall. Running a bit late so we’ll get right to it and list our plays for the day and come back and fill in the blanks later.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Milwaukee at Orlando: This one opened at 218 and is now up to 220 with more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. Both of my numbers have this one landing under the number and it’s one of the lowest totals the Bucks have played to this season. When the total is 220 or under, the Bucks are 0-7 in totals, so will take a shot on the under in this spot.

Dallas at Charlotte: This number is definitely based on the injuries to the Mavericks and the fact that Charlotte can’t really score even when healthy. Until the Mavs get a few more bodies back, it’s probably best to avoid their games when possible. They do have some solid players, so it’s a very winnable game given the quality of competition they’re facing, but how many points they can score in the process is still up in the air.

LA Clippers at Minnesota: The Timberwolves are a strange team in that they attempt to be more like the current New Orleans Pelicans and score a lot, while allowing a lot of points, but they don’t have the same offensive talent. They do show a strong tendency to go over high totals, as they’re 10-4 in over/unders when the total is 230 or higher, which is enough to keep off of the under in this one.

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State: Was hoping the total here was a few points higher, but at 223 it’s right about where the numbers are, but games with away favorites of 14 or more points have gone 17-31-1 (35.4%) over the years, so would lean that way, but a bit hard to pull the trigger.

San Antonio at Sacramento: This one opened at 224.5 and is now down to 223.5 with 56% of the wagers coming in on the under. My numbers are right there, but teams playing with no rest have been decent over teams this season and teams who held an opponent to fewer than 100 points the previous night are 25-15-1 in totals, so will take the over in this one.

END OF FEB. 8 PICKS

We won our totals play on Thursday and now have eight games on the schedule and you can find fault with most of the projections, either due to injuries or new players coming to one team or the other. As I mentioned in the NBA sides article, it’s always a little bit tricky for the first couple of games after the trade deadline with players on the move and trying to fit in with their new teams.

There’s also a little bit of a shock factor for the other players on a team that dealt away one or two of its players, as players are used to seeing the same faces on a nightly basis and to have new people showing up in the locker room can take a little while to get used to, especially those players who were friends of the departing players.

That said, we’re just going to look at two games a little bit and have one play.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjectionProjections With Feb/March Numbers
BostonIndiana214.5Indiana 105-104Boston 107-106
New YorkWashington228Washington 117-109Washington 114-112
ClevelandChicago216Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHouston246.5Houston 128-117Houston 135-122
OrlandoMemphis220Memphis 111-108Memphis 105-99
DallasSan Antonio227.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 107-105
PhoenixPortland232.5Portland 119-115Portland 121-109
BrooklynLakers222Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-107
LA ClippersGolden State226.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 123-104

Toronto at Indiana: The total on this one came out at 219 and is now 218 or 218.5 depending on your sportsbook even though we’ve seen two-thirds of the wagers come in on the over. Both of my numbers are calling for this one to land under the number and will go ahead and grab the under in this one. The line came out a little bit on the high side, but a little of that likely had to do with the 119-118 game the teams played a few nights ago. But the total in that one was 215.5, so we’re getting a little bit of a break in the number in this one.

The Pacers have been about bouncing back after a poor defensive effort against a team, as Indiana is 3-7-1 in totals when playing a team they allowed 115 or more points to the previous game. Both teams shot 50% of better last game and don’t think we’ll see the same thing happen here.

Portland at Utah: This one is 226.5, which is where it opened and we’ve seen 80% of the early wagers come in on the over, so there are some good-sized wagers among the 20% of the under wagers which are putting up a little resistance to moving the number up to 227. Normally, I’d be looking at the under in this one, especially with both of my numbers calling for an under and the lack of line movement, but could see the Jazz willing to run a little more than usual in this one, as they’re a better shooting team than the Blazers and this is a game Utah really needs to win. Both teams allow 44.9% from the field, but the Jazz are better at defending the 3-pointer.

END OF FEB. 7 PICKS

A split in the NBA last night and now we’re faced with just a five-game schedule for Thursday, with a couple of decent games, so not really the worst slate around despite it’s low number of contests.

Away TeamHome TeamTotalProjection - Season StatsProjections With Feb/March Stats
New YorkAtlanta230Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 126-123
DetroitPhiladelphia215Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 111-94
CharlotteMiami212Miami 116-97Miami 118-101
UtahOklahoma City217Oklahoma City 111-109Oklahoma City 108-107
DenverDallas218.5Dallas 114-109Dallas 122-109
New OrleansSacramento235Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 121-118

Orlando at New York: This one has come down from the opening number of 206.5 despite more than 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Magic have gone 3-5 in totals when playing with no rest and they are 11-17 after a loss, while New York is 6-8 after a win. But with both of the numbers calling for this one to go over the total, it’s a tough game to get a decent read on and will just stay away.

New Orleans at Chicago: This one opened at 231.5 and has since dipped slightly to 231 with 55% of the wagers, so the line has basically done what you would expect. The Pelicans are a different team with Zion in the line-up and have been playing better, so their season-to-date stats don’t really account for a whole lot, as you can tell by the projection. Will just stay away from this one.

Philadelphia at Milwaukee: Interesting game here, as the total came out at 227 and is still there despite seeing more than three-quarters of the wagers come in on the over. Really, it’s a question of how the 76ers want to play this one. The first two games between these two have gone over the number, but will just stay away from this one, as I really don’t like the game.

San Antonio at Portland: The total here opened at 231 and is now 230 with a little more than 60% of the wagers on the under, which is a bit of a surprise, as I expected bettors to still be on the over trend with the Blazers. I have this one at 239 and 230 and with the Spurs sporting an 18-9 totals record after a defeat, will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one.

Houston at Los Angeles: This one is at 235.5 after opening a little bit lower and seeing the over get the majority of wagers, but perhaps not quite as many over bets to justify a 1.5-point move. The Lakers do play defense at home, but may be willing to get out there and run with the Rockets and have some fun after a trying couple of weeks and I’ll stay clear of the total in this one.

END OF FEB. 6 PICKS

We’re seeing a couple of reverse line moves taking place this morning in the NBA, so we’ll get right to it and look at a few of the games and some of the betting patterns that have been taking place so far this morning.

Golden State at Brooklyn: The total on this one opened at 226 and is now all the down to 224 even though we’ve seen close to three-quarters of the wagers come in on the over. Both numbers have this one landing under the total, although we have lost a little bit of the value with the last drop in the number.

Indiana at Toronto: The total on this one opened at 216.5 and has stayed put despite a huge number of the wagers coming in on the over, so this could be one of those games where lack of a line move is just as telling as a move. Both of my numbers are calling for this one to sneak in there over the total, but one I’d definitely just stay away from.

Orlando at Boston: This one opened 211.5 and stayed there throughout the majority of the morning hours, although we’ve just seen a few places start to move the game to 212, as more than 80% of the bets have come in on the over.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Big move in this one from 235.5 all the way to 238.5 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. The move is a little bigger than it should be based on the betting, so with both numbers calling for an under, it’s a game I’d just stay away from.

Cleveland at Oklahoma City: The total here opened at 21.9.5 and is now up to 221 even though we’ve seen more than 80% of the wagers come in on the under, which is something of a rarity in NBA betting. I have this one at 221.5 and 222, so will go ahead and take a shot on the over in this one.

Denver at Utah: This one opened at 217 and has dropped to 215.5 even though the betting on the total has pretty much been split right down the middle. I’m on both sides of the total here and a game I’ll just sit back and watch and see how it transpires with Denver playing the second of back-to-back contests.

END OF FEB. 5 PICKS

We’ve hit a bit of a wall the past few days in basketball, topped off by last night’s ugly 1-4 night. The numbers have been better than my picks, however, as I’ve let the line moves influence the selections a little too much and have paid for it.

With just four games on the slate, we can look at each one a little bit more than normal, as well as a little bit about what has transpired over the course of the season and one thing we’ve seen the last five weeks is a bit of a scoring increase. In January, teams averaged 112.4 points per game and totals were 124-91-7 (57.7%). A bit of that likely has to do with a couple of non-defensive efforts out of the Washington Wizards, but the totals record shows that isn’t the only reason.

Milwaukee at New Orleans: The total on this one opened at 245 and is still there at most places, with several dropping it to 244 or 244.5, as more than two-thirds of the wagers have come in on the under. The Bucks can score, but they can also play some defense, which is what makes this one a little tough to get a good read on. The Bucks went out and had fun against Washington and the result was a 151-131 win and they could do so once again here, even though both numbers like the under. The Bucks are 7-5 with totals of 230 or higher, but are 6-3 if they’re off a win, and are averaging 127 points a game in that spot.

Charlotte at Houston: There’s still no total posted on this one, which is unusual for the NBA at this time of day. The Hornets have had some scoring issues lately, as they averaged just 101.5 points in January and are averaging 95 points a game for their two February games. No real interest in this one regardless of the number.

Portland at Denver: The total here has climbed from its opening of 220.5 and is all the way up to 225 with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers disagree and the Blazers have been scoring a lot and winning, but think Denver isn’t going to get in a track meet here and will play Nuggets basketball. Denver is 0-5-1 in totals at home when the number is 220 or greater, so the Nuggets have been able to dictate the pace of those games at home and will go against the public in this one and take the under 225. Denver is 5-10 in totals after a loss, allowing just 103.4 points and 1-5 in totals at home after a loss.

San Antonio at Los Angeles Lakers: The total here opened 229 and is holding steady with close to 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. The Lakers can play defense when they want to and are 1-1 when the total at home is 228 or higher, while San Antonio is 11-8 in away totals of less than 230. The Spurs are 17-9 in totals after a loss, while Los Angeles has gone 18-18 in totals after a victory and the Lakers are 8-10 at home after a win.

END OF FEB. 4 PICKS

We’ll wrap things up with our look at totals and there have been a couple of good-sized moves so far today. We’re coming off a split in the NBA, but an otherwise crappy day of basketball.

New York at Cleveland: Pretty good move in this one, as the total opened at 219 and has moved three full points with 62% of the wagers on the under. My two numbers are on both sides of the new total, so will just stay clear of this one.

Golden State at Washington: The slightest of reverse moves here, as the total has moved from 234.5 to 235 with 55% of the wagers on the under, which is a bit surprising for a Wizards’ game. Both numbers lean towards the under, but no interest in this one.

Dallas at Indiana: Another game with a decent move, but feel this one has more to do with the Mavs’ injury situation than it does big money coming in.

Orlando at Charlotte: Big reverse move in this one, with the total moving from 205 all the way down to 202.5 despite more than 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. My numbers have this one landing over the total but have to respect such a big move and will pass.

Phoenix at Brooklyn: Surprised at the betting here, as the game has moved from 227.5 down to 224.5 or 225 with 75% of the early wagers on the under. Would have expected more over wagers to be coming in on this one, as both teams are capable of scoring and they don’t always bring the defense.

Philadelphia at Miami: Another game that has moved in the opposite direction of the betting, as this one opened 214.5 and is now 212 with more than 70% of the wagers on the over. Both numbers lean to the over in this one, but no interest bucking the betting patterns and line movement in this one.

Boston at Atlanta: This one has moved from 227 and just hit 224, which is still well over both of my projections, so will go ahead and grab the under 224 before this one takes any additional drops. Injury issues surround both teams.

END OF FEB. 3 PICKS

We won our NBA side play Saturday, but dropped the total for an overall split. Had a feeling we might be in trouble with the total, as money kept coming in on the over and the line didn’t budge. Still, we looked pretty good at halftime with 113 points, only to see Charlotte score 27 points in the second half.

Just four games today and some strange betting in a few of the games, so we’ll get right to it.

Denver at Detroit: The total on this one opened at 218 and is all the way down to 214 even though we’ve seen more than 60% of the early wagers come in on the over. The Pistons have gone 18-7 in totals at home so far this season and are 19-13 in totals following a loss. Denver is 14-17-2 in totals after a victory. While both numbers are calling for this one to go over the number, you have to respect the money coming in on the under here, so just going to stay away from this one.

New Orleans at Houston: The number here is huge, having opened at 245 and moving up to 246 with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. Both numbers like the under in this one, but in no rush to go that way, as the Rockets may be perfectly happy to play an offensive game and disregard the defense in this one. The Super Bowl is definitely the top sporting event of the day, but one way to get some attention is to put up 140 points, with Harden scoring 50. Just going to skip the total in this one.

Phoenix at Milwaukee: The total in this one opened 234 and just hit 230 after they announced the big guy would be out for the Bucks. The Bucks didn’t miss him one bit last time he sat out, but going to take a shot on the under in this one, not so much due to Giannis missing the game, but think Milwaukee will make amends for a couple of poor defensive games. The Bucks are 3-6 in totals after allowing 120 or more points and one of those came in their thumping of Washington. But after last game, think Milwaukee will at least try to put a little more effort on the defensive end.

Chicago at Toronto: This one opened 216 and climbed to 217 with a few more wagers coming in on the over. The Bulls put forth a pretty dismal defensive effort last time, so think they’ll look to a bit better on that end of the floor. Both numbers are calling for this one to sneak over the number, although the differences are pretty small compared to the total and will just sit this one out.

END OF FEB. 2 PICKS

 

A split in the NBA last night and a pretty good-sized slate of games for Saturday. A number of injury issues taking place with some of the games tonight, which always makes things a little more tricky. We have a fair number of games where both sets of numbers agree on either the over or the under, but also have a few question marks in several of the games.

Miami at Orlando: The total in this one opened at 206.5 and we’re seeing more sportsbooks with the number at 206 than 206.5 now even though three-quarters of the early wagers have been coming in on the over. I’d give the under a look, but with one of the projections at 211.5, this one will be a pass for me. This is the lowest total Miami has played to this season.

Brooklyn at Washington: The total on this one is up a couple of points from the opening number of 239 and we’re starting to see some 241s pop-up. Both of my numbers have this one landing under the total by a fair amount, but can’t pull the trigger here, as it’s difficult to know what to expect coming out of the Wizards. After allowing 150 points in back-to-back games, the Wizards played a little defense last time and came away with a win, but they may resort to their non-defensive ways after breaking their losing skid. The Nets have been a solid under team after a win, going 7-13, but since they won a shootout last night, the Nets may also be more willing to play an uptempo game.

Charlotte at San Antonio: The total on this one is 214.5 and you have to wonder if a little bit of that is due to the Hornets only scoring 107 points against the Wizards last time out. This is a low total for San Antonio, who is 3-1 in totals when the number is 215 or less and a game the Spurs should win and San Antonio is 16-5 in totals when they win, so will take a shot on the over in this one.

Los Angeles at Sacramento: This one is a little bit on the high side and would normally look at the under here, as the Lakers are 0-2 in totals after allowing 125 or more points in a losing effort, but the Kings have been going a little more uptempo lately, and while I still lean that way, it’s a matter of being able to pull the trigger.

END OF FEB. 1 PICKS

A definite downer here last night, as the number dropped so most who followed pushed early and lost later in the day, as the wise guys also hit the under, knocking it down to 224 by game time. Absolutely hate those types of games, but all we can do is march forward and look at today’s slate.

Toronto at Detroit: This is one that opened at 223 and climbed to 223.5 with more than 60% of the wagers on the over, but has moved back down to 223 at some sportsbooks. Both of my numbers have this one landing under the total, but with the Pistons going 19-12 in totals after a loss, not really sure what to think of this one. Both teams are in higher-scoring modes compared to their season averages over the past five games, so will just sit this one out.

Chicago at Brooklyn: This one refused to move off the opening number of 220.5 for the longest time, but a few places just moved it to 221, with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over in this one. I would lean to the under here, but a game that I’ll most likely just stay away from.

Memphis at New Orleans: The number here opened 242.5 and we’ve seen it come down a little bit despite a small majority of the wagers coming in on the over. The numbers lean to the under, but both teams are in over situations, with the Grizzlies going 14-8-1 in totals after a win and the Pelicans going 11-7, almost as if their coaches reward them a little bit for getting a victory and tell them to go out and score some points, defense be damned.

Oklahoma City at Phoenix: This one came out a little lower but is up to 223 with more than 90% of the early wagers coming in on the over. Both teams have the slightest of under tendencies in their respective situations, so I’ll go against the grain and take the under in this spot.

Portland at Lakers: Both of the numbers are calling for this one to land well under the total, but a little hesitant of this one due to Portland’s recent style of play. Over the past five games the Blazers are scoring 11.8 more points than their season average and allowing 8.6 more points. The Lakers’ defense has also take a slight step backwards recently, but all of those games were on the road. These teams played two games in December and we saw 248 and 249 points, so no real interest in the total of this one.

END OF JAN. 31 PICKS

Charlotte at Washington: The Wizards became the first team in the last 14 years to allow 150 or more points in back-to-back games, so it’s little wonder the betting public is on the over pretty hard in this one. Interestingly, the total here is the lowest of the three games the teams have played this season, with the over/under at 235 for the first meeting, which landed over the number, and then 229 the second time the teams met. That one was 114-107. Both numbers are calling for this one to land under the total, and I’d love to go that way, but Washington’s 19-11 totals mark after a loss is a bit concerning. The Wizards are 2-7 in totals when in the rare role of a favorite, however, but also 9-6 in games they win. Too many conflicting trends in this one for me to pull the trigger.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: This is another game where both sets of numbers are calling for an under, but looking at the trends is probably enough to keep me off of it. The 76ers have been a decent under team after a win, going 12-18, but the Hawks are 19-15-1 in totals after a loss. Even more pronounced is Atlanta’s totals mark in games that are expected to be high scoring, as Atlanta is 16-4-1 when the total is 228 or higher. Likewise, Philadelphia is 1-1 when playing to a total this high and both of those games came against the Wizards. Much like the game above, I’ll just stay away.

Sacramento at Los Angeles Clippers: The total here came out a bit late and has been bet up to 228. This will be the seventh game the Kings have played that is the tail end of a back-to-back situation and all seven have been on the road, so the Kings aren’t getting much help from schedule makers. Sacramento played a decent first quarter-and-a-half, but then things got away from them defensively and that was pretty much the game. The Clippers are 13-19 in totals after a win and the Kings are 14-15, but the teams do have a combined 4-11 mark in division games, so will take a shot on the under in this one.

END OF JAN. 30 PICKS

We split our two NBA games on Tuesday, being on the right side of another non-defensive effort of the Washington Wizards, but being on the Cavs, who gave an example of the textbook definition of insanity. After being blown out twice by New Orleans this month in up-tempo games, the Cavs went out and did the same thing and the result was a predictable 14-point loss.

Anyway, enough griping and we’ll take our 49-46 NBA record into today’s action.

Chicago at Indiana: The total in this one has climbed from its opening of 214 to 214.5 and we’re seeing about 55% of the wagers in the game come in on the over so far. I have it at 211 and the Knicks are just 6-12 in totals after a victory, but the Pacers are a slight over team after a loss and I’ll just stay clear of this one.

Detroit at Brooklyn: Huge move in the total of this one, as the game opened at 224 and is now all the way to 227 even though we’re seeing 58% of the wagers land on the under in the early going. I have this one at 215, but want no part of running head first into the line move, especially with the Pistons being 18-12 in totals after a loss and the Nets sporting a 14-10-1 mark after a defeat.

Memphis at New York: The total here opened at 224.5 and is now 223.5 with roughly 55% of the wagers on the under. Both of my numbers have this one in the 221 range and conflicting team trends, with the Grizzlies going 13-8-1 in totals after a win and the Knicks being 14-20 after a loss, so will just stay away from this one.

Utah at San Antonio: The total here opened at 221 and is still there with the over getting about 55% of the wagers in the game so far. I have this one at 224 and the Spurs are 16-9 in totals after a loss, so would lean to the over here, but not much of a margin and little room for error.

Oklahoma City at Sacramento: The total here opened at 220.5 and is up to 222 with more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the over, while both of my numbers have the game in the 215 range or lower. With neither team having any real trends, will take a shot on the under 222 here and go against the grain.

Houston at Portland: This one has moved from 235.5 to 237 with a large majority of the wagers on the over. My numbers are split and I’ll stay clear of this one.

END OF JAN. 29 PICKS

Just eight games on the NBA slate for Tuesday, as they decided to postpone the showdown in Los Angeles between the Lakers and the Clippers. While the sentiment is a nice one, you also have to wonder if that’s what Kobe Bryant would want, but not about to go on a tangent here, so on to today’s games, where we split in the NBA last night, winning the side play and dropping the total.

New York at Charlotte: The total on this one opened at 210 and is now down to 209 even though we’ve seen more than 55% of the wagers come in on the over. I made it 213 points, but not real eager to ask either of these teams to score a whole lot. They played a 103-102 game in November.

Golden State at Philadelphia: The total in this one has climbed from 212 to 213 with pretty mixed betting, while I have it at 211, so a little too close for comfort. If the 76ers do have any sort of letdown from their win over Boston it could come on the defensive side of things, so no interest in this game.

Boston at Miami: This one opened at 216.5 and has held steady at the places which have it posted. A couple of sportsbooks are a little with this one due to the Heat having played last night, while I made this one 214, which is too close to the line for my liking.

New Orleans at Cleveland: The total here opened at 233 and has stayed there even though we’ve seen a few more under wagers come in. The Pelicans scored 133 and 140 points against the Cavs in the team’s two meetings this month, and I have it at 226, but can’t quite pull the trigger in this one, although I’d lean towards the under if I had to play the game.

Atlanta at Toronto: The total here has dropped from 233 to 232 after seeing 65% of the early wagers come in on the under, so I’d agree with the move, as I have it at 230, which is still too close to the line.

Denver at Memphis: The total on this one has moved from 226 to 225.5 with more than 60% of the wagers on the under. I made this one 229, but no interest in this game at all.

Washington at Milwaukee: The total here opened 240 and is still there with close to 60% of the wagers on the under. I have this one 246 and will take a stab on the over, as the Bucks may be a little lax on defense if worn out from their overseas travels.

Phoenix at Dallas: The total here moved from 229 to 228 on pretty mixed betting. I have this one at 227, so no real room for error.

END OF JAN. 28 PICKS

 

Our NBA total went down in a big way, as the Washington Wizards’ defense resembled the Washington Generals last night, allowing 150 points for the third time this season. Six games on today’s slate, with a couple of question marks due to injury in a few of them.

Cleveland at Detroit: The total here opened at 223 and is all the way down to 219 even though we’re seeing more than 70% of the wagers come in on the over. I have this one at 222 and 223, so not really a lot of value with the number. The teams did see 227 points and 228 points when they played earlier this month. The totals in those games were 218.5 and 220.5, so not a whole lot of difference between the current number and those two totals.

Orlando at Miami: The total in this one has dropped from 212 down to 210.5 in a game where more than 50% of the wagers are coming in on the over. Part of that could be due to the status of Jimmy Butler, who is still listed as questionable at the time of this writing. I made this one 213 to 217.5, which is primarily due to Miami averaging more than 115 points at home, but with the injury situation it’s probably best to just stay clear of this one.

Dallas at Oklahoma City: The total on this one has moved from 224 to 225.5 and I have it ranging from 227 to 233, so will go ahead and take the over in this spot. The Mavs are 8-5 on the road with a total of 220 or more. The Thunder play better defense on the road and are allowing 110.1 points at home.

Sacramento at Minnesota: The total on this one is moving quite a bit, having opened at 227 and is now all the way down to 224.5. My numbers agree with the move, as I have the game 217 to 219. Lean to the under in this one, but will likely stay away due to having a side wager on the game.

San Antonio at Chicago: The total here has dropped a couple of points, from 217.5 down to 215.5 with the betting being pretty well split down the middle. I have this one at 218 to 219, but no hurry to go against the line move.

Houston at Utah: This one has dropped from 224.5 to 223 and can see the logic, as Harden is good for scoring some points, but also not the best of defenders. With the Rockets missing a couple of key players, will just stay clear.

END OF JAN. 27 PICKS

Will look to keep things going in the NBA, which has been our saving grace the past few days. We were 4-3 overall on Saturday, but went 2-3 in college basketball and 2-0 in the NBA.

Houston at Denver: The total in this one opened at 227 and has dropped to 225.5 even though we’ve seen two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 224 and 226, so we’re split right down the middle.

Toronto at San Antonio: The total in this one has dropped a little bit from its opening of 223.5 down to 221.5. I have this one at 220 and 220.5, so no real value on this game with the total.

Boston at New Orleans: The total on this one has climbed from 228.5 all the way to 231.5 even though just 57% of the wagers are coming in on the over. For a three-point total move, you should be seeing a higher percentage of wagers on the over, so a little bit of sharp money is likely included with that 57%. My two projections are calling for scores of 223.5 and 225, but in no rush to go against the line move in this one.

Phoenix at Memphis: The total in this one has moved from 237.5 all the way down to 234.5 with close to two-thirds of the wagers landing on the under. I’m a little split on this one, with projections of 228.5 points and 236 points, so will just stay clear of this one.

LA Clippers at Orlando Magic: The total on this one is 217.5, which is down slightly from the opening of 218 and I have this one 208 to 215, but the Magic are 6-3 when playing to totals of 217 and higher, which is a little unusual for a defensive team, so will stay away from this one.

Brooklyn at New York: This one opened at 223.5 and is now at 223 with a good majority of the wagers coming in under the total. I have this one at 217 and 220, but no real interest in playing the game.

Washington at Atlanta: The total on this one opened at 242.5 and is now 240.5 with the betting being pretty well split right down the middle. I have this one at 236 and 229, so will take a shot on the under, knowing full we you can look pretty dumb if we see a game in the 130s, but Atlanta actually playing a little defense at home at times.

Indiana at Portland: This one opened 220 and is still there with 60% of the wagers on the over. I have it 223 and 225.

END OF JAN. 26 PICKS

A couple of decent NBA games on the schedule for Saturday and we’re looking at overnight lines with a couple of them, but wanted to get these out early. Won both NBA games on Friday, but dropped the three college plays to make it a crappy night.

Dallas at Utah: The total in this game opened at 226 and is still there with the majority of the early bets coming in on the over. The Mavs have scored 120 or more points in four of their last five games, but now they’re going up against a team who can play a little defense, unlike most of their recent foes. The lone exception to Dallas’ 120-point scoring run came against the Clippers, who held them to 107 and LA can also play a little defense. Would like to take the under here, as I have it 222.5 and 223, but with both teams in slight over trends after a win, will stay clear of this one.

Brooklyn at Detroit: The total in this one is up to 227 after opening at 225.5 and you can’t blame anybody for betting the over in this one, as Brooklyn has been dismal defensively lately. Both teams are on over runs, with Brooklyn going over in four of their last five and the Pistons going over in five of their last six. I made this one 224 and 226, so will just pass on this game.

Chicago at Cleveland: This one came out at 217 and just made the move down to 216, which is probably the correct move, as I have this one between 213 and 217. Neither of these teams typically scores a lot, but they make up for it by not playing defense, either, which is why they have a combined 29-63 record. They did play a 118-116 game a week ago, so one I’ll stay away from.

Oklahoma City at Minnesota: The total on this one is 225.5 and nine of the last 10 games between these two have gone over the total. But oddsmakers have caught on and the total 12 days ago was just 218, so you’re being asked to pay a premium in terms of points. I have this one 212 and 217, so will go against the trend in this one take the under 225.5.

Lakers at Philadelphia: The total on this one came out at 217.5 and has held steady. Embiid can score, but he’s also a defensive presence in the middle, but Philadelphia has been playing lower-scoring games with him out and six of their last eight have landed under the number. I have this one 215 to 218, so will sit it out.

END OF JAN. 25 PICKS

Decent sized slate of NBA games for Friday, where we’re coming off a split last night, watching the Nets not play defense for the fifth straight game and wonder why they’ve lost all five, and seeing Dallas continue to be a better team away from home.

Milwaukee at Charlotte: The total here opened 219.5 and is still there even with 75% of the bets on the over. I have this one at 221, but no interest in the over here.

Boston at Orlando: The total here opened 212.5 and is still there with close to 70% of the bets on the over. I have a big gap in my two numbers, but the highest is 208 and going to take the under 212.5 in this one.

Memphis at Detroit: The total here has climbed from 228 to 230 with just 54% of the wagers on the over, so probably a bigger move than we should have seen. I have this one at 224.5 and 228.

Toronto at New York: The total here is up to 216.5 after opening 215.5 and I have it 207 to 214.

Sacramento at Chicago: This one opened at 221 and is all the way down to 218 even though we’ve seen more over wagers than under wagers. I have this one at 208 to 215, but we’ve lost a bit of value and just have a three-point edge with our highest projection and we usually look for at least 3.5 points difference.

Clippers at Miami: This one opened 222 and is now 221.5 with 60% of the bets on the over. I have it 223.5 to 225.

Houston at Minnesota: This one is holding steady at 234.5 with 57% of the bets on the over and I have it 227.5 to 234.

Denver at New Orleans: The total on this one opened 231 and is now 229.5 with the majority of the wagers on the under. I have it 227 to 232, so nothing happening here.

Atlanta at Oklahoma City: The total on this one opened at 222 and is up to 22.5, while I have it 226 to 231.

Phoenix at San Antonio: This one opened 229 and has inched upward to 229.5 with 57% of the wagers on the over. I have it 227 to 233, so nothing here.

Indiana at Golden State: This one has moved from 216 to 215 and I have it 213 to 217.

END OF JAN. 24 PICKS

Only three games on tonight’s schedule, so that will give us an opportunity to look at each game in a little more detail than normal. We did lose part of our archives, so will have to go back and try and get the record recalculated. We were 50% in the NBA, between sides and totals. We haven’t had a solid stretch yet and that is typically what makes or breaks a season for bettors.

Washington at Cleveland: The total in this one opened up at 232.5 and has dropped a half-point with close to two-thirds of the early wagers coming in on the under. The Wizards did lose in overtime at Miami last night and team who played overtime the previous night have gone 8-3 in totals this season, but we’re looking at a relatively small sample size. These teams are 49-48-3 since the start of the 2015 season, so no real long-term advantage.

The Wizards are 17-11 in totals after a loss and 15-7 when the total is 230 or higher. The Cavaliers are 18-12-1 in totals after a loss and this is the first time they’ve played to a total of 230 or higher this season. I have this one at 233 and 227, so will stay clear.

Lakers at Brooklyn: The total on this one came out at 227 and is still there in the early morning hours. The Lakers are 2-3 in totals when playing with no rest and 17-17 after a win. The Nets have dropped four straight and part of that is due to defense, which hasn’t been very good lately, allowing 117 points in three straight games and 118 in their previous effort before that. Brooklyn is 12-10 after a loss.

Granted, they’ve played some tough teams in that span, but they have to a better job defensively and they should know that, as they’re 5-12-1 in the games they’ve won and 14-10 in games they’ve lost. I have this one 220 and 220.5, so will go ahead and take the under in this one.

Dallas at Portland: Decent game here, as the total is at 229.5 and I’m split, with total projections of 229 and 235. Dallas is 9-5-1 after a loss and the Blazers are 10-8 after a victory. The Blazers are 4-9 when the total is 228 or higher and one of those overs came in last week’s 120-112 loss at Dallas. The Mavericks are 6-3 when playing to a total of 228 or higher. There has been a slight tendency for games to go under the total (79-91-2) after a team allowed 120 or more points to an opponent the previous game.

END OF JAN. 23 PICKS

 

 

 

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