Last Updated: 2018-12-15
We managed to sneak over the total in Charlotte last night – and then got an extra five minutes for good measure – but winning one game, let alone back-to-back games has been a daunting task for us so far this season, so will see what we can do here today, as we have two plays.
Utah vs Orlando: This game is being played in Mexico City and the total opened at 206.5 and was bet down to 204.5 before coming up slightly to 205. While the assumption is to use away ratings for both teams at a location such as this, just going to stay away from this one completely, as there are too many question marks and it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to pay -110 for what is an educated guess, at best. While there’s the unfamiliar court, which can cause problems for shooters, there’s also the possibility of a closely-called game by the officials, as nobody really wants to see a 100-96 type of game, with the likely exception of under bettors.
Lakers at Charlotte: The total on this one opened at 228.5 and has dropped to 227 with 55% of the early wagers in the game coming in on the under, so the move is a little bit bigger than it should be. I have this one at 230.
Boston at Detroit: The total on this one opened at 211 and is now 212 on pretty even betting. The Celtics have been on a bit of a scoring increase, while Detroit has struggled, losing their last six. I made this one 218 and will take the over in this one.
Houston at Memphis: The total here opened at 203 and is now 202.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 196 and will take the under in this one for the final play of the day.
Chicago at San Antonio: The total on this one opened at 210 and is now up to 212 with 65% of the overnight bets coming in on the over. I made this one 209.
Minnesota at Phoenix: The total in this one came out at 213 and the total has help steady so far, while I have this one at 212.
Clippers at Oklahoma City: The total here opened at 227 and has pretty much stayed there with two-thirds of the early wagers on the over. I made this one 230.
END OF DEC. 15 PICKS
The NBA totals still haven’t been very good to us, which is getting a bit frustrating, but will keep plugging away and try to get the ship righted.
Atlanta at Boston: This one opened at 224.5 and has dropped to 223 with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the under. I have this quite a bit lower, as the numbers are still trying to catch up to the Celtics and their sudden scoring increase.
New York at Charlotte: This one opened at 224.5 and has climbed to 225.5 even with more than 60% of the early wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 227 and will go ahead and take the over here.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: This one came out at 218.5 and has been holding pretty steady with 60% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 220.
Indiana at Philadelphia: This one opened at 217.5 and is now up to 219 with 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. Always interesting to see how games with teams that play contrasting styles pan out. I have this one at 220.
Washington at Brooklyn: This one opened at 228.5 and has dropped all the way down to 225.5 with more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the under. I have this one in the 230s due to the Nets playing better defense on the road and higher-scoring games at home, but not going to get involved with this one.
Miami at Memphis: The total here opened at 197 and has climbed slightly to 198 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made the total here 201.
Toronto at Portland: This one has climbed slightly from 216 to 217 and I made it 222. Portland can be a little unpredictable as it pertains to totals, as they can come and play decent defense when they really want to.
Golden State at Sacramento: This one opened at 236.5 and has dropped to 236 with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. The Kings don’t have the same scoring numbers at home as they do on the road, but they are on the upswing so this could be another game where the numbers haven’t quite caught up to the points.
Oklahoma City at Denver: This one opened at 216.5 and has shot all the way up to 219 with 55% of the wagers on the over, so the line move is bigger than it should be based on the betting. I have it at 208 but not going against the move.
END OF DEC. 14 PICKS
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