Last Updated: 2019-02-14
The last day before the All-Star Break, so just three games on tap and we’ll take a look at some trends that have developed during the season, as oddsmakers have done a decent job this season, as totals are 424-416-23 this season.
The average total is 220.7, and games that are 210.5 or less have gone under the majority of the time, as these games are 106-132-10, while at the other end of the spectrum, games with a total of 231 or higher have gone over the number at a 122-96-6 (57.5%) clip, so games that are at least 10 points away from the average number, are doing what they’re supposed to, with the low totals going under and the high totals going over the number.
Games with teams from opposing conferences are landing over the total a bit more than average, as they’re 158-141-10 (52.8%), while games involving two Eastern Conference teams are 136-138-2 and games with two Western Conference teams are 130-136-11, so a little something to be said for teams playing conference games a little tighter.
There hasn’t been much difference regarding if the home team is favored or not in totals, with both within a few games of .500.
Charlotte at Orlando: We’ve seen a slight reverse move here, as the total opened at 215 and is down to 214, with 63% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Magic have gone 15-10 in totals after a win and I have this one at 218 and 219. Would lean to the over, but no interest going against the reverse move.
New York at Atlanta: The total here has moved from 224 to 225.5 with three-quarters of the early wagers on the over and I have it at 229 and 230, so will go ahead and take the over in this one, as the Hawks are 24-17 when playing with a total of 225 or higher and have allowed allowed at least 110 points in their last 15 games when playing to a total that high.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans: This one opened at 237 and is still there with 62% of the early wagers coming in on the under. I have it at 234 and 238, so a split down the middle and one I’ll stay away from. The Pelicans are a bit tricky to figure out now, as Davis has disappeared for stretches since not being traded.
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Back with the NBA on Wednesday here, as we have a full schedule of games on tap, with a few decent ones and a few ugly ones.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The total on this one opened at 219.5 and is up to 221 with a slightly majority of wagers on the over, while I have this one 212 to 217. The Nets are 12-16 in totals after a loss, while the Cavs have had their troubles scoring after a victory and are just 4-7 in totals, so lean to the under here, but will stay away due to the line movement.
Milwaukee at Indiana: The Pacers are playing Indiana basketball, having held their last four opponents to under 100 points and as long as they’re winning, have to believe they’ll continue to bring the defense. The total here opened at 219 and is still there with 63% of the wagers on the over, while I have it at a high of a 215, so will takee the under here.
Detroit at Boston: This one opened at 212.5 at a few places, while a number of sportsbooks don’t have it posted. I have it ranging from 210 to 217.
Washington at Toronto: This one climbed from 232.5 to 233 with pretty mixed betting, while I have it from 227 to 231.
Philadelphia at New York: This one opened at 222.5 and has stayed there even with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. I have it 221 to 223.
Memphis at Chicago: This one opened at 203.5 and has held steady with three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over so far. I have it under with two numbers and over with the third.
Miami at Dallas: This one has moved from 207 to 208 with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over and it have it 207 to 214.
Sacramento at Denver: The total on this one is up to 230.5 after opening at 229.5, but seeing 57% of the wagers come in on the under. I have it 226 to 230.
Houston at Minnesota: This one just opened at 232, after being lower in the overnight lines, while I have it ranging from 220 to 225.
Golden State at Portland: Another game that just came out, this one is 233, while I have 227 to 234.
Phoenix at Clippers: The total came out at 228 on this one and I have it from 227 to 233.
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The Wizards played better defense Friday, but not good enough, and were also a little too good offensviely, as I lost for the second time in three days with the under in a Washington game. Will definitely stay clear of them tonight.
San Antonio at Utah: The total opened at 221.5 and is now 220.5, with a few sportsbooks having it slightly different, while I have numbers between 221 and 222.
Cleveland at Indiana: This one opened at 211 and has made a minor shift to 210.5, while I have it all over the place, with projections ranging from 202 to 212 and will stay away from this one.
Toronto at New York: This one has climbed a little bit, as it was 216.5 earlier this morning and we’re now seeing 217.5 or 218 depending on the sportsbook. I have it at 221 to 223 and will take a shot on the over here.
Charlotte at Atlanta: This one opened at 230 and is now 229 with pretty good two-way action and I have it anywhere from 226.5 to 232.
New Orleans at Memphis: This one has dropped slightly, as it was 212 earlier this morning and is now 211, while I have it at 212 to 217.
Washington at Chicago: We’ve seen a huge move to the over in this one, as it was 222 earlier this morning and has now hit 226 or 226.5 at most sportsbooks. I have it at 220, 221 and 222.
Clippers at Boston: This one opened at 225.5 and is all the way up to 228 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have it at 223 to 227.
Oklahoma City at Houston: Another game that is seeing the over get hit, this one has climbed a couple of points to 237 in the last few minutes with 70% of the wagers on the over. I have it at 227 to 233.
Orlando at Milwaukee: This one has dropped slightly, as it was 223 earlier this morning and is now 222. I have a big gap here, with numbers from 215 to 225.
END OF FEB. 9 PICKS
Totals have been a struggle lately and coming in today with one of my “stupid” plays, where if it losses, people are like, “Damn Moody, how could you be so stupid?”
Denver at Philadelphia: The total here is hovering between 230.5 and 231, while I have it in the mid 220s, but Denver has gotten away from playing defense like they were earlier in the year.
Cleveland at Washington: The Wizards made me look stupid against Milwaukee and I’m giving them the chance to do so once again, as I’ll be on the under 220.5 in this one. The number did open at 220 and has seen 60% of the wagers come in on the over, so there are 40% of us who can look dumb together. The Wizards are joining some select company with their defensive woes lately, becoming just the third team in the last 20 years to allow 130 in three straight games.
New York at Detroit: This one opened at 206 and has stayed there for the most part, with a few having raised it to 206.5 with more than 60% of the wagers on the over. I have it in the low 210s.
Chicago at Brooklyn: This one opened 223.5 and has been bet up to 224.5 with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. I have this one at 221 with all three methods.
Milwaukee at Dallas: This one has climbed from 222 to 223 with 60% of the bets on the over and I have it at 217 to 220 with the three methods.
Golden State at Phoenix: This one has help pretty steady at 231 despite nearly 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. The Warriors can play defense when they want to, but not sure if they will in this spot. I have the game ranging between 224 and 229.
Minnesota at New Orleans: This one has been coming down all morning and was at 234 earlier and is now all the way down to 231. I have it all over the place, with ranges of 227 to 240 but want to see if Anthony Davis looks motivated to play before getting involved with the Pelicans.
Miami at Sacramento: This one opened at 218.5 and is now 217.5 with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. I have it at 218 to 222, and think the Heat will try to slow things down a little bit.
END OF FEB. 8 PICKS
Wednesday was one of those days where I definitely over-thought the Milwaukee game and should have just went ahead and followed the numbers, which wasn’t the case, as the Wizards showed why they’re going to miss the playoffs with a dismal effort on defense. When you hit 8-of-9 3-points and still trail by double digits, you know you’re not doing something right.
Minnesota at Orlando: This one opened at 218 and is now down to 217 with more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. I have this one at 220, so will sit it out.
Clippers at Indiana: This one opened at 217 and is still there at the majority of sportsbooks, although a couple of dropped it to 216.5. I have it at 211 and 212, but the Pacers may look to play a bit more uptempo and the Clippers can leave their defense in Los Angeles on occasion when they take to the road.
Toronto at Atlanta: This one opened at 231.5 and is now up to 233 with 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have it at 233 and 236 and with Atlanta 10-4 in totals as a home underdog and 5-1 when getting 7 or more points, will go ahead and take the over in this one.
Memphis at Oklahoma City: We’re finally starting to see a little reverse movement in this one, as the total opened at 214.5 and is now 213 with 54% of the wagers on the over. Hard to figure how Memphis is going to approach this game and see if they’re faster-paced without the big guy, who can score, but that’s countered a bit by his frame on defense. I have this one at 209 and 210.
Lakers at Boston: This one has climbed from 224.5 to 225.5 and I’m right on the outskirts, with projections of 221 and 227. The Lakers probably won’t be able to match the Celtics in a faster-paced game and would be better served trying to keep the score in the 100 to 110 range, but that’s easier said than done.
San Antonio at Portland: This one has dropped slightly from 227.5 to 226.5 and I have it 229 and 232, so will just sit back and watch this one.
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