Last Updated: 2019-04-20
A pretty busy day in the NBA, as games begin at 3 p.m. EST and run well into the evening, as there are roughly 10 hours of televised action today.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn: The total in this one opened at 233 and has dropped a couple of points to 231, even though we’re seeing a few more wagers coming in on the over. The total is the highest of the four games so far, but has to be expected with the 76ers scoring more than 130 points in each of the last two games. The Nets held the 76ers to 102 points in the opener, but Philadelphia has averaged 138 points over the last two games. The officials have been a godsend for over bettors this series, as we’ve seen a minimum of 61 foul shots.
Denver at San Antonio: The total here opened 211 and is now down to 208 even though we’re seeing 55% of the wagers come in on the over. I can’t see both teams shooting around 50% in this one, as was the case in the last game. Denver also hit more than 50% from 3-point range last game, so things should crashing back down to earth a little bit in this one, as both teams can play pretty good defense, so will take a shot on the under in this one.
Milwaukee at Detroit: The total in this one has moved from 217 to 216 even though we’ve seen more than 60% of the early wagers come in on the over. The Bucks have been hitting their shots, while the Pistons haven’t and have to think Detroit plays a little better defense in this one, but it’s a question of how many points they can score without Blake Griffin. Detroit was a little better defensively in Game 2, but gave up nearly the same number of points, as the game was close enough the Bucks didn’t ease up in the second half as they did in the opener.
Houston at Utah: This one opened at 216 and is still there, although we’re seeing a few 215.5s. The first two games have been right around the number, with the Rockets doing their part and the Jazz not very good from the field in either game and even worse from 3-point range. I have this one at 215, so will just sit this one out.
END OF APRIL 20 PICKS
A couple of interesting games on the NBA slate from a totals perspective and a few trends than come into play on several of the games.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn: The total in this one opened 226.5 and has now been bet up to 228.5 this morning, as it was in the 227 or 227.5 range around 9 a.m. EST. So far, just 53% of the wagers have come in on the over, so a move that’s likely being driven by a few larger wagers, but wouldn’t be surprised to see more over bets come in during the day s the public starts to get their wagers down. I made the total on this one 227, so will be staying away, even though teams who scored at least 130 points in the playoffs have gone 15-7 in totals their next game.
Denver at San Antonio: The total on this one opened 212 and is now 209 with 53% of the wagers coming in on the under and I’ll also be on the under in this one. My numbers have this one a little bit higher, but it’s more of a case where both teams have been guilty about not playing defense at times during the regular season, but both can play defense when they really want to, which should be the case here. The Spurs were a fair under team at home during the regular season, while Denver was a decent under team once they got on the road, so expecting a low-scoring defensive battle here.
Golden State at Clippers: The total on this one opened 237 and it is now 235.5 with 63% of the early wagers coming in on the under. I have it at 238 and it does fall into the above 15-7 totals record that the 76ers are in, but the Warriors have been a strong under team after a loss in the playoffs, going 6-22 their last 28 attempts. Golden State went under the total following all five losses in the post-season a year ago, and didn’t allow 100 points in any of the five.
During the regular season, the teams did have a couple of shootouts, including the rematch after the Clippers won the first meeting between the two. Would probably lean to the under if I had to play, just based on the tendencies of the Warriors, but will just stay away.
END OF APRIL 18 PICKS
Once again, lines were a little late being posted in the NBA, where we have a full slate of games, so we’ll get right to it.
Indiana at Detroit: The total in this one opened at 207 and is now down to 205.5 with pretty good two-way action. I have this one at 204.
New York at Orlando: This one opened at 212.5 and has held steady with 58% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 209.
Chicago at Washington: Another game that has held steady, this one opened at 228 and is still there even with close to 65% of the early wagers on the over. I made this one 229.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: This one has dropped a little bit after opening at 240, it’s now 238 with 60% of the wagers on the under. I have it at 232, so would agree with the move, but in no rush to play this one.
Boston at Miami: The total here opened at 212 and has climbed slightly to 212.5 even though close to two-thirds of the wagers have come in on the under. I have this one at 210.
Toronto at Brooklyn: The total on this one opened at 225 and has climbed to 226 despite more than 55% of the early wagers on the under. I made this one 228 and will take a shot on the over here.
Charlotte at New Orleans: This one has dropped from 232 to 231, while I made it 236, but no interest in taking a stand on Pelican games for the remainder of the season.
Minnesota at Dallas: This one has moved from 222 to 223.5, while I have it at 226.
San Antonio at Denver: This one has held pretty steady at 213, which is where it opened, while I have it at 220, but have to wonder about Denver’s mental state here after losing last night in the Bay Area.
Utah at Phoenix: The total on this one opened at 220 and has inched up slightly to 220.5, while I made it 220, so nothing happening in this one.
Memphis at Portland: This one opened at 216 and I have it at 221, but will stay away from this one.
Houston at LA Clippers: This one opened at 229 and is still there with pretty good two-way action. I made this one 229 and will just stay away.
END OF APRIL 3 PICKS
Running a little bit late due to the oddsmakers being late with the NBA numbers, so we’ll get right to it.
Lakers at Oklahoma City: The total on this one opened 224.5 and has stayed there despite more than 70% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have it at 226 and 230, so the numbers would lean to the over, but have been staying clear of the Lakers a little bit and the Thunder don’t give a lot of confidence right now, as they’ve been woefully inconsistent lately, so a game I’ll just stay clear of.
Atlanta at San Antonio: The total here opened at 227 and has been bet up to 229 with more than 75% of the early wagers coming in on the over, while I have this one at 228 and 226, so will go against the grain in this one and take a shot on the under. The Hawks are going to be ever thinner up front than normal, with John Collins expected to miss the game and rest, which might make it difficult for the Hawks to score as well as they have been recently. The Spurs haven’t been playing well and think Popovich has seen enough out of that from his players and will be on them to play some defense.
Houston at Sacramento: This total came out a little bit lower than I expected and even 60% of the wagers on the over weren’t enough to keep it from dipping another half-point. The total opened at 226.5 and is now at 226 at the majority of sportsbooks. I made it 221 and 225, but was hoping public perception would have this one in the upper 220s, but will just stay away from this one, as there’s really not much value in taking the under at the current price.
Denver at Golden State: This one is a bit strange, as the total opened at 222 and is now down to 219.5 despite more than two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. Another game where I had been looking at the under, but definitely not now after seeing the line move. Both numbers were calling for the Warriors to win 116-108, so the numbers like the over, but wouldn’t touch that side after the Rockets learned their lesson against playing a fast-paced game against Golden State. Just passing.
END OF APRIL 2 PICKS
Coming off our first really bad day in a while in the NBA, so will look to try and get back on track a little bit. Things are definitely getting a bit tricky, with injuries, players sitting, etc., although it’s easy to over-think things, as I did yesterday, passing on a few games that I gave too much consideration to a certain aspect, only to see if come back and bite me in the butt.
Detroit at Indiana: This one opened at 210 and has dropped all the way down to 205 with a little more than 60% of the wagers on the under. I have this one at 197, but always tough to go under such a low number. Games with a total of 205 or lower are 16-18-2 this season, so really nothing there.
Miami at Boston: This one opened at 212 and has inched up slightly to 212.5, while I have it at 212, so just one I’ll stay away from.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn: Tough loss for the Bucks yesterday and now they have to try and regroup against the Nets in short order. This one opened at 226.5 and has been bet up slightly to 227.5, while I made it 229.
Orlando at Toronto: Could be a good game here, where the total opened at 214.5 and is up slightly to 215.5 on pretty good two-way action. I have this one at 217, so another one pretty close to the number.
Chicago at New York: This one moved from 212.5 to 215.5 and I have it at 220, so will follow the crowd and take the over in this one, although not real thrilled to be on the same side as the betting public.
Portland at Minnesota: This one opened 223 and is now up to 224, while I have it 226 and will stay clear.
Philadelphia at Dallas: This one has pretty much stayed at 220.5 with 60% of the wagers coming in on the under, while I have it at 219, although that is likely a little high considering the Dallas injury situation.
Charlotte at Utah: This one has moved from 218 to 219.5 after more than 70% of the early wagers came in on the over. I ‘m right at the opening number with a projection of 218.
Cleveland at Phoenix: The total in this one has moved from 220 to 223.5, while I have it at 224, so most of the value has gone out of the over here.
END OF APRIL 1 PICKS
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