Home NBA NBA Betting Articles Daily Expert NBA ATS Picks & Betting Predictions 3/12/2020

Daily Expert NBA ATS Picks & Betting Predictions 3/12/2020

As I’m sure you’ve heard, all games have been postponed in the NBA, as the season has been suspended after Utah’s Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus, per The Associated Press.

We’ll be back when the games resume and will focus on college basketball.

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Not the greatest of schedules in the NBA for Wednesday and no plays for today, but will get the numbers posted and then come back and take a look at a few of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

New York at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -5 and the line dropped to 4.5, but has since come back to 5 at most places, with Atlanta getting more than 75% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Hawks winning with all three numbers and covering in two of them, so one to stay away from.

Charlotte at Miami: The Heat opened -9.5 and the line has moved to 10 on pretty even betting, as people have caught on to the improved play of the Hornets the past couple of weeks. Still, I have the Heat covering with all three numbers, so would lean to the home team but no real desire to go against Charlotte at the moment.

Utah at Oklahoma City: The Thunder have moved from 1.5 to 2 after getting more than 60% of the wagers in this one and I have this one coming down to the wire, with the Thunder winning by 2, by one and having the game even. Tough one to wager on, but should be a decent one to watch.

Denver at Dallas: The Nuggets moved from -1 to -2.5 with just a small majority of the wagers in a game where something will give. The Mavs are 4-0 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back where they lost the previous night, but also 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Would lean to the home team if I had to play this one.

END OF MARCH 11 PICKS

Much bigger slate of games than we had on Monday, with nine contests on the schedule. Just getting numbers posted right now and will come back with a look at some of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Fairly tough slate for Tuesday despite the large number of games and we’ve lost any value going against the Lakers, so nothing official here for today.

New York at Washington: The Wizards have moved from -3.5 to -4.5 after getting more than 80% of the wagers and it’s hard to trust Washington laying points to anybody. They have been playing a little defense at home, at least at times, but the Knicks have been playing a little better as of late.

Orlando at Memphis: Wanted to take the Grizzlies here, but Memphis opened -2 and the line is up to 2.5 with more than 80% of the wagers on the home team here, so not as big a move as we probably should have seen. Would still lean that way, but that’s about it.

Brooklyn at LA Lakers: Everybody knows this could be a tough spot for the Lakers and as a result, the line has moved from LA -12 to LA -10, and I have the Lakers winning by 12 to 14, so no real interest in the Nets at the current price. The Lakers are coming off wins against Milwaukee and the Clippers and have Houston, Denver, and a pair against the Jazz on tap, so it’s easy to envision a bit of a letdown in this one, but would like a few more points with Brooklyn and will just stay away from this one.

END OF MARCH 10 PICKS

Split the two NBA plays on Saturday, but was pretty poor in college hoops. Just three games for Monday, so will get the numbers posted and then come back and take a look at the games on the slate, wanting to spend a little extra time looking over a few of the games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Charlotte at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -5.5 and the line is down to Atlanta -4 with the betting being pretty split right down the middle of this one. The Hawks were getting close to 60% of the wagers earlier when the line dropped, so it looks as though a few followers are jumping on the Hornets. The Hawks are 4-4 as a favorite and the Hornets are playing better right now, having covered in six straight games.

Toronto at Utah: The Jazz opened -3.5 and are now 4.5 with 55% of the wagers in the game. The Raptors had a tough game last night in Sacramento but are 5-2 on the road with no rest and 2-0 as a dog, but covered both games by a half-point. They could very well do so once again in this one, but tough call here, especially with the Jazz losing the last meeting by 20 points.

Milwaukee at Denver: The Nuggets have moved from 3.5 to 5.5 point favorites in this one after getting close to 60% of the wagers in this one. The Bucks played a dismal game last night and Milwaukee has been pretty good about bouncing back from a dismal defensive effort, going 4-1 ATS after losing and allowing more than 120 points. Milwaukee lost back-to-back games for the first time this season last night in Phoenix and even without the big guy, think they’ll give a better accounting of themselves in this one. Will lean to the Bucks in this one, but playing in Denver when shorthanded isn’t an ideal situation.

END OF MARCH 9 PICKS

Our NBA skid continued on Saturday, handing us our lone loss of the evening, as we fell all the down to 79-78 on the season. Getting the numbers posted now due to a few early games and will come back and look at a few plays on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers: The best game of the day on a day where there are a few interesting battles, sees the Clippers favored by 2.5 over the Lakers. All three sets of numbers I’ve run have the Clippers winning by four points, but going to go the other way and take a shot on the Lakers, who have lost both games this season to their city rivals, the most recent coming at home, where the Lakers have gone 9-1 ATs when seeking to revenge a home loss to a team. They were blown out in their one failed attempt at Boston, but think they can get the job done here.

Miami at Washington: The Heat opened -5.5 and the line is now Miami -5 after the Heat received more than 75% of the early wagers. Miami isn’t the same team on the road they are at home, so going to take a shot on the home underdog in this one and grab the Wizards plus the points.

Detroit at New York: The Knicks are favored by 5.5 or 6 points in this one depending on your betting outlet and it’s hard to trust New York laying that number of points. The Knicks have only been favored by 5.5 once all season, but they did get the cover against the Cavs in an 18-point win. The Pistons have covered four straight, although they lost the last three games outright and eventually close losses take a toll and after having played Utah and Oklahoma City, not so sure they’ll be completely into this one. If I had to play it, would lean to the road dog, but going to sit this one out even though two of my three numbers have Detroit winning the game.

END OF MARCH 8 PICKS

Ugly night last night, as we dropped all three NBA plays to fall to 79-77 for the season. We’ve been woefully inconsistent the past week-and-a-half, going 19-24 our last 43 plays, with days of 5-0, 5-1, but then two 1-5 days and a few 2-3 days thrown in there. Will get all of the numbers posted and then come back to look at a few of the games. No official plays for the day, as it’s not a great card to begin with and several teams are missing a few players.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Houston at Charlotte: The Rockets are favored by 8 and I have them winning between 7 and 11 points, so nothing happening in this one. The Hornets have covered five straight games, but tough call in this one.

Utah at Detroit: Slight move here towards the Pistons, as the Jazz moved from -8.5 to -8 after getting 70% of the wagers in this one, while the most recent numbers have this one pretty close to the line. Utah does look like they got things figured out after their earlier slump and have won four in a row, although their opponents have been weak for the most part, with last night’s win over Boston the lone exception. The other wins have come against Washington, Cleveland and New York.

Denver at Cleveland: The Nuggets are up to 9.5 in this one and would like to take the Cavs here, but Denver has a score to settle after losing the last time the teams played in Denver. Just going to stay away from this one.

Atlanta at Memphis: The public is on Memphis pretty good and it’s hard to blame them, as this line should be higher. The Hawks just got 5.5 points last night in Washington and you can’t tell me Memphis is only a point better than the Wizards. Washington is also 3-8 when playing back-to-back games. But the oddsmakers aren’t stupid and this one bothers me a little bit, so I’ll lean to the home favorite, but just going to pass the game even though all three of my numbers are calling for a double-digit victory.

END OF MARCH 7 PICKS

No plays here last night, as we had the small four game schedule to deal with, but that all changes tonight with 10 games on the slate. We did win our NBA totals play to move to 79-74 on the season. As we frequently do, we’ll get the numbers posted and then circle back and take a look at some of the games on the schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Atlanta at Washington: The Wizards opened -3.5 and the line has dropped to 2.5 even though the Wizards are getting more than 70% of the early wagers. I have Washington winning by double-digits, but not going to go against the line move here. The Wizards are just 5-8 as a favorite.

Oklahoma City at New York: The Thunder opened -7 and the line has stayed there despite Oklahoma City getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game so far. Oklahoma City blew out the Knicks in New York the last time the teams played and New York has been playing as of late, so will take a stab with the ugly home underdog in this one.

Miami at New Orleans: Decent game here, where the Pelicans are -1.5 and the line has held steady with pretty even betting. I’d give the slightest of leans to the home team, as the Heat haven’t been as effective on the road this season.

Indiana at Chicago: Was hoping for closer to 5 points here, as the Pacers opened -4 and the line has dropped to -3 even though Indiana is getting roughly three-quarters of the early wagers in the game. I have Chicago covering with all of the different numbers and will take a stab on the Bulls +3.

Milwaukee at Lakers: The Lakers opened -2 and the line quickly dropped to even, but has since climbed back to Los Angeles -1.5 with the Lakers getting more than 60% of the wagers in the game. This game should be the most heavily bet game of the night, so would probably give a little more credit to the initial move towards Milwaukee than usual, but not going to play this one.

END OF MARCH 6 PICKS

A little better showing last night, although we did split the two NBA plays, so we moved to 78-74 after a bit of an ugly run here. Just four games on the schedule, so will get everything posted and then come back with a look at the games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Denver at Charlotte: Denver opened -9.5 and the line has moved to 10 with the Nuggets getting two-thirds of the wagers in the game. All of my numbers have Denver winning but not covering, so if I absolutely had to play this one, would probably give the slightest of leans to the home team.

LA Clippers at Houston: The game of the night, this one saw the Rockets opened -1.5 and the game is now even with the Clippers getting more than 70% of the wagers. It’s probably a bigger game for Houston to stake its claim as a contender for the Western title than it is for the Clippers, and all of my numbers like the Rockets in this one. I do have the totals play going in this one, so probably won’t pull the trigger on the side, as having two wagers tied in to the ability of the Rockets to play defense is a scary proposition.

Philadelphia at Sacramento: The Kings moved from -3.5 to -5 with the Philadelphia injuries plying up and it’s hard to take either team in this one. The Kings are just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite or 5 or more points, while the 76ers, even when fully healthy, haven’t shown themselves to be a very good team on the road. No interest in playing this one.

Toronto at Golden State: A little surprised this one hasn’t climbed as Toronto opened -8 and more than 70% of the wages have been on the Raptors, but the number has held steady so far. The sheer number of volume on Toronto may force the line upward, but the sportsbooks are holding off so far. I have the Raptors winning and covering this one, but no real interest in playing this one.

END OF MARCH 5 PICKS

Brutal night in the NBA, going 1-3 overall. Had the worst of the Celtics line, although it didn’t really make any difference, as a team like Boston shouldn’t blow a 17-point lead entering the fourth quarter, regardless of who is out. We dropped to 77-73 on the season.

Running a bit late, so getting the numbers posted and then circling back with a look at some games, which we do from time to time.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Boston at Cleveland: This one has now dropped down to 1.5 at a few places, as the Celtics are going to be without a couple of key players. No real reason to play this one given the circumstances.

Oklahoma City at Detroit: The Thunder are favored by 8 over the hapless Pistons and I have them winning by 2, but not sure what to do on this one, as away favorites of 7 or more are 17-11 if they are coming off back-to-back losses of 10 or more points and 7-1-1 if coming off a pair of 15-point or more losses.

Memphis at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -3 and the line is now down to 1.5 with Memphis getting 55% of the wagers, so a bigger move than we should have seen in this one. The Grizzlies won the last meeting between the two by a point in Memphis, so not really sure why somebody likes the Grizzlies, but will just stay away.

Chicago at Minnesota: Ugly game here, as the ‘Wolves moved from -3.5 to -3 with the betting being pretty well split. I have this one even, but the more recent numbers have Minnesota getting the cover, so will stay away.

New Orleans at Dallas: The Mavs opened -6.5 and the line has dropped to 6 even though Dallas is getting more than three-quarters of the wagers. The overall numbers have Dallas winning by 8, but as we’ve said several times, the Pelicans are a different team now that Zion is in the line-up. Using the more recent numbers from February onward has the Mavs winning by 4, so will take a shot on the road dog in this one and take New Orleans +6.

END OF MARCH 4 PICKS

Been dying a slow death here the last few days, as we’re coming up short. We split our two NBA totals on Monday, but did drop the side play, as the Spurs wilted down the stretch a little bit and lost by five, which drops our record to 76-70 in the NBA, so a little below where we need to be.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Brooklyn at Boston: The Celtics are favored by 9 in this one and Walker is listed as probably for Boston, who lost to Brooklyn last time the two teams met and the Celtics have been pretty good when avenging an earlier loss, going 15-6 ATS. The Celtics are coming off a home loss to Houston and are 6-2 after losing as a favorite and with a road game at Cleveland on tap, should be focused on this one. The Nets are coming off a tough loss at Miami and return home for a game tomorrow, so don’t think the Celtics are really hurt by the situation and will take a shot on Boston -9 in this spot.

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City: Last time I took the Thunder they lost by 47 and will come back with them getting 3.5 against the Clippers. Los Angeles opened -2.5 but have been getting bet pretty good in this one, which is responsible for the line move. The Thunder are 20-12 at home, while the Clippers are 16-13 on the road and have a date at Houston up next. Oklahoma City had won five straight before the beatdown at Milwaukee and have had a few days to lick their wounds from that one. The teams have split the first two meetings this year, with the home team winning both times in fairly close contests. The Clippers won by 2 in LA and the Thunder won by 6 at home in December when the teams last met.

Philadelphia at Lakers: The 76ers stayed within the number the last time they took the court against a Clippers team that didn’t play with much intensity and now face the other Los Angeles squad, so it will be interesting to see how the Lakers approach this one. The 76ers did put a beating on the Lakers the last time they met, winning by a 108-91 score when they met in Philadelphia in late January. The Lakers do have the Milwaukee Bucks up next, although they have a couple of days in between games, so shouldn’t get caught up in looking ahead too terribly much. Would lean to the Lakers if I had to play it, but in all probability will just stay clear of this one.

END OF MARCH 3 PICKS

 

We fell to 75-68 with our NBA plays on Sunday, as the Clippers diddled around for the first half and took a big lead into the fourth quarter, only to coast through the final 12 minutes and get the win, but not the cover.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Houston at New York: The Rockets are favored by 10 in this one and Houston hasn’t been the greatest large road favorite around, as Houston is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of 8 or more points. The Knicks are just 1-3 themselves as a home dog of 8 or more points. With Houston coming off a one-point win over the Celtics and having the Clippers up next, would give a lean to the home team in this one if I had to play it.

Portland at Orlando: The Magic have moved from -6 to -7 despite getting one-third of the wagers in the game. I have the Magic winning by 6 and 7 points, so a little too close to the number for comfort.

Milwaukee at Miami: The Bucks opened -3.5 and the line dropped down to 3 before the number has climbed back to 4. This should be a pretty good game, as the Heat are generally a tough home team and you really can’t read too much into Milwaukee’s lackluster effort against Charlotte on Sunday, as they were most likely looking ahead a little bit to this one. The Bucks are just 1-3 ATS when favored on the road by 4 points or less, losing at Boston, Utah and Philadelphia. The Heat are 2-1 as a home dog and this is the second-highest line they have received this year.

Indiana at San Antonio: The Pacers opened -2.5 and the number has come down to Indiana -2 with the road team getting more than 60% of the wagers. The Pacers are coming off a victory at Cleveland and do have a trip to Milwaukee on tap. I have the Spurs winning this one, so will take a shot on San Antonio +2 for our play today.

END OF MARCH 2 PLAYS

One of those days where we probably deserved better on Saturday, going 2-3 overall, with two losses in the last couple of seconds. Since our 5-0 Wednesday, we’ve gone 4-8 over the last few days, so hopefully can get things headed in the right direction. We dropped to 74-67 in the NBA.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Milwaukee at Charlotte: The Bucks are favored by 13 in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see it climb higher, as Milwaukee is getting more than 80% of the early wagers and this one is simply about effort. Will Milwaukee show up to play or go through the motions, as they did on Jan. 24 when they defeated the Hornets in Charlotte 116-103 as 13.5-point favorites. That games was the only time the Hornets have been a double-digit home underdog.

Philadelphia at Clippers: The Clippers are now favored by 13, as Philadelphia will be without Embiid and Simmons, but this one is much like the game above, where it’s a question of how bad the Clippers want to win. Los Angeles is playing with revenge and coming off a huge win over Denver, and has Oklahoma City on tap. But my numbers have the Clippers covering even against a healthy Philadelphia team and Los Angeles is 5-1 as a double digit favorite against a team they lost to previously, so will take a shot on the Clippers and lay the points.

Detroit at Sacramento: The Kings are favored by 7.5 and it’s the fifth time they’ve been favored by 7 or more this year, going 2-2 straight-up and ATS, having covered both games against the Warriors, but losing against Charlotte and the Knicks. Detroit is just 6-13 ATS after a win, however, so while the numbers say they’ll keep it close, want nothing to do with Detroit in this situation

Washington at Golden State: This is the largest away favorite the Wizards have been all season and Golden State is just 5-7 after a win, but can’t trust Washington as such a large favorite in this one. If I had to play would lean to the home dog, but will most likely stay clear.

END OF MARCH 1 PICKS

Fell to 73-66 for the season on Friday in ugly fashion, being on the wrong side of two blowouts. That’s going to happen over the course of the season and the key is to make sure yesterday’s losses don’t affect your plays the following day.

Right now, the majority of games don’t have lines due to teams being action lst night or injury questions, so we’ll be back once the numbers are up and have have leveled off a little bit, but wanted to get the projections up early.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Brooklyn at Miami: The Nets are getting a little bit of play in this one, as the number opened Heat -8 and has stayed there despite more than 80% of the early wagers landing on Miami. The Heat are a much better team at home, but just haven’t been playing as well this month as they did earlier in the year. The Heat are just 8-13-1 ATS when playing a team it lost to the previous game, so will just stay away from this one.

Indiana at Cleveland: The Pacers opened -8 and the line has stayed there with more than three-quarters of the early wagers coming in on Indiana. I have the Pacers winning and not covering in the first game of their five-game road trip and will take a shot on the Cavaliers, who we’ve had a few times lately. Cleveland has covered three straight and five of their last six and have shown a little bit of heart, getting revenge wins over the Heat and the 76ers.

Houston at Boston: The story here is Walker being doubtful for the Celtics and he’ll be missed against a team that could go all small. I have the Celtics winning the game handily and not sure Kemba is worth that much, but from a match-up standpoint if there’s one team you’d like to have all of your guards healthy for, it’s the Houston Rockets. Will just stay away from this one.

Orlando at San Antonio: A little surprised to see the Spurs getting three-quarters of the wagers in this one, which has pushed the line up a little bit, moving from San Antonio -3 to -3.5. Aldridge will miss this one for San Antonio, who will be looking to avenge a two-point loss in Orlando earlier this season.

END OF FEB. 29 PICKS

No NBA plays on Thursday and we have a full slate of games for Friday, as our record held at 73-64 for the season. As we frequently do, we’ll get the numbers posted and the plays and then come back and look at a few of the other games as well.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Oklahoma City at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -10.5 in this one and the line has stayed there despite Milwaukee getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game so far. Our numbers have the Bucks winning by 11, so the line is basically right where it should be. But there are some huge trends that point towards the Thunder in this one and am going to go ahead and take a shot on Oklahoma City +10.5. The Thunder labored a little bit in their game last night, but Oklahoma City is 7-0-1 or 8-0 ATS when playing the second of a back-to-back situation and are 5-0 ATS when getting 8 or more points. The Thunder are just 1-4 straight-up in those games, but they’re keeping things close enough to at least get the cover, which is really all we’re concerned with. The total is 229 and so far this season, Oklahoma is 10-0 ATS on the road when the total is 220 or higher. Coupled with the Bucks just coming off a game with Toronto and believe the Thunder have a decent chance to get the money in this one, so will take Oklahoma City +10.5.

Washington at Utah: The Jazz have hit rock bottom and have managed to drop four straight games as home favorites, something you seldom see, with Utah becoming just the seventh team in the past 25 years to pull off that accomplishment and are only the third team to be a home favorite after dropping four straight as home chalk. The first two teams covered, but the sample size makes it practically worthless. The Jazz did drop five straight beginning the end of January, but appeared to have righted the ship with four straight wins, only to turn around and lose their last four. Utah’s defense has been the big culprit in their most recent skid and that may spell trouble against a Washington team that can score, but do little else. But home favorites who have lost at least four straight games are just 10-18 ATS this season, so no rush to back the Jazz here. Utah takes to the road after this one for their next four games.

END OF FEB. 28 PICKS

We won both our of NBA plays on Wednesday to move to 73-64 on the season, so we still have a little bit of work to do to get to where I’d like to be, but it’s not going to happen with today’s ugly card. Injuries have turned what was already looking to be a poor day for the NBA into a pretty sad one. Joel Embiid is listed as doubtful and LeBron James is joining some others and missing tonight’s game with the Warriors.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

New York at Philadelphia: The 76ers haven’t been that great after a loss, going 10-12 ATS, while the Knicks are 20-20 against the number after a setback. The 76ers are probably going to be missing two of their three leading scorers and playing a New York team that has matched-up well with the Sixers this season. Philadelphia has won all three games, but is 0-2-1 ATS in those meetings. The Knicks are just 2-6 ATS in back-to-back situations and this one looks to be a good game to stay away from.

Sacramento at Oklahoma City: The Thunder have bounced between 6.5 and 7 for much of the morning, which is right there where I have it, so no real edge to one team or the other. The Kings have been a decent road underdog so far this season, going 14-7-1, while the Thunder are 9-10 as home favorites. The Thunder do have a date at Milwaukee tomorrow and could be looking ahead a little bit to that one, especially after having defeated the Kings by 20 in Sacramento when the two last met. Pretty much torn on this one, but probably a little easier to make a case for the Kings, but no interest in getting involved.

Portland at Indiana: The Pacers lost by 10 in Portland and now are favored by 9.5 in a game I have them winning by 10. The Blazers are just 7-12 ATS when playing a team they defeated by double digits last game but Indiana is just 4-5 when playing a team they lost to by 10 or more points. It is the last home game for Indiana before a five-game road swing, but don’t really want any part of either team in this one. If forced to do something on this one, would probably lean to the home team.

Lakers at Golden State: This one has dropped to 10 with James being out for the Lakers. Los Angeles did go through the motions when the teams met in the Bay area on Feb. 8 and came away with a 125-120 decision in a game where defense was optional, as both shot over 50% for the game and better than 40% from 3-point range. The Lakers enjoyed a 60-39 edge on the boards and that was the difference in the game. The schedule is about to get much tougher for the Lakers, with Memphis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Houston on tap, so not an ideal spot for Los Angeles, even with their big guy out.

END OF FEB. 27 PICKS

We fell to 71-64 in the NBA when our totals play went down the drain on Tuesday and we’ll have one side play for Wednesday. We’ll come back with a look at several more games, but want to get the numbers and are one play up.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Philadelphia at Cleveland: The Cleveland Cavaliers showed a little bit of heart last game, coming back to defeat the Miami Heat after getting thumped in Miami two days prior. Now, they have to face a Philadelphia team that completely waxed them the last time the teams met in Philadelphia, as the 76ers won by a final score of 141-94 and led 77-36 at halftime. Going to take a shot on the Cavaliers in this one.

Brooklyn at Washington: The Nets have held at -2 so far this morning even though the Wizards are getting the majority of the wagers. Brooklyn let one get away from them last time against the Magic and did lose by six points here earlier this month as 1.5-point favorites.

Dallas at San Antonio: The Spurs are getting a little bit of sharp money, as the Mavericks opened -5 and the line has stayed there despite Dallas getting more than 75% of the wagers so far in the game. My numbers have Dallas winning this one by 6, otherwise I’d probably be inclined to give San Antonio a pretty good look in what is a revenge game for San Antonio, who have lost both games to Dallas so far this season, although both games have been fairly close.

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns: The Clippers have been getting hit pretty hard in this one, as the line has moved from Los Angeles -5.5 to 7 with the road team getting more than 80% of the wagers so far. Would probably lean to the home team if I wanted a play on the side of this game.

END OF FEB. 26 PICKS

 

We split our two plays on Monday night to move to 71-63 on the season, as the Wizards got the job done, but Minnesota came up a few points short. Kind of a tough day from a sides perspective, as there are conflicting trends in a couple of games. So today, will be the opposite, in that we have a totals play, but will be passing on the side plays.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Milwaukee at Toronto: The Bucks are favored by 1 and I have them winning by the same margin and it’s somewhat obvious they weren’t entirely focused on the Wizards last night, with this one on deck. But the Bucks haven’t been a great team after a close victory, going just 1-5 ATS after a win of 6 or fewer points and 0-3 ATS after a win of 4 points or less. While the Raptors have been a nice surprise this season after losing Leonard, they’ve had their troubles against the better teams in the league, going 1-4 ATS at home when favored by 2 or less or being underdogs. So, the games where the Raptors are expected to have troubles, they have, which makes this one a tough to take a stand on.

Oklahoma City at Chicago: All of the trends point to the Thunder, as Oklahoma City is 23-10 ATS after a win and the Bulls are 6-12-1 ATS after a victory, but the Thunder are getting close to 90% of the wagers so far and my numbers call for Chicago to keep it closer than the number, so a quick pass in this one.

New Orleans at Los Angeles: The Lakers are favored by 8 and I have them winning by 13, but New Orleans is easily a better team now than they were in December when they were building some of their stats, so the projected margin is a little bit misleading. The Lakers don’t always get up for every game, but this could be one of those where they do, so no real interest in getting involved with this one.

Sacramento at Golden State: This is the largest away favorite the Kings have been this season and they’re getting three-quarters of the wagers in this one, but Sacramento has won by double-digits in each of the first two meetings and the Warriors are in a 45% situation regarding teams who have lost two straight home games by double digits, so will just stay away.

END OF FEB. 25 PICKS

We fell to 71-62 on the season after splitting our two plays Sunday, with the Warriors falling apart in the second half for a loss. Will get this up online for the numbers and come right back and give our plays, as we’ll have two of them today, as totals have been a little bit on the tough side the past couple of days.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Milwaukee at Washington: The Bucks are now favored by 13 in this one after getting more than 80% of the wagers in the game. I have them winning by the same margin, but think you can probably make a better case for taking the home dog in this one, as the Wizards are 6-1 ATS when playing on the back end of a back-to-back situation. They do catch the Bucks in an ideal situation, as Milwaukee is coming off a win against Philadelphia and have a date at Toronto on tap. Going to go against the grain in this one and take a shot on the Wizards +13.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Wanted to take the 76ers in this spot, but they’ve been pretty poor as large home favorites this season, going 2-7 ATS as a favorite of eight or more points. The Sixers are 8-1 straight-up, so they’re guilty of playing down to their competition a little bit and just doing enough to come away with the victory.

Minnesota at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 13.5 in this one and I have them winning by 9, so will take a shot on the Timberwolves +13.5 in this one. The Timberwolves lost by 12 in Denver last night, but teams are 5-2-1 after playing in the Denver the previous night. Minnesota has covered both games as large underdogs this year, with last night’s game in Denver being one of the two. The Wolves are a little beat up, but Dallas has better numbers away from home and the San Antonio Spurs up next, so will take a shot on the ugly dog in this spot.

END OF FEB. 24 PICKS

 

 

The Heat got the job done for us on Saturday, so we moved to 70-61 for the season in the NBA, which is still a little worse than we’d like to be, as we haven’t had that one huge run like we did last year. On the other side, we haven’t had the one big skid like we did last year either.

There are a couple of decent games on today’s schedule, along with some fairly ugly ones and we’ll be taking two of the ugliest teams on the board today, so we’ll see how things play out.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Washington at Chicago: This one opened even and the Wizards are now favored by two after getting close to 70% of the wagers in this one. I have Chicago winning this one by five points, so will take the Bulls +2 in this spot. The Wizards are a road favorite for just the second time this season, losing the first game when they were 1.5-point favorites at Charlotte and were on the wrong side of a 114-107 decision. The Wizards are 7-20 straight-up on the road and Chicago is 11-18 straight-up at home. The Bulls have lost both games at home since returning from the All-Star break, but the Wizards lost at home to Cleveland in their lone game after the break. The Bulls did play last night and Chicago is 4-3 straight-up and 6-1 ATS playing with no rest, so will take a stab with them in this spot.

New Orleans at Golden State: The Pelicans have moved from -8 to -9.5 after getting close to 90% of the wagers in this one, which would have me looking at Golden State right there, but there are also a few other factors that say the Warriors might be the right side in this one. The Pelicans are coming off a road win at Portland and have the Lakers on tap, so a possible tough spot for the visitors here. The Warriors were hammered by the Houston Rockets last game, falling 135-105, and Golden State is 6-4 ATS after a 20-point or greater loss and 3-2 at home. The Warriors are 4-2 ATS getting more than nine points at home this season and will take a shot on Golden State +9.5 to bounce back a little bit after the Houston debacle, as they’re 3-1 ATS after allowing 130 or more points.

END OF FEB. 23 PICKS

We won our lone play on Friday to move to 68-61 on the season and will take a look at some of the games on the schedule, but just have one play here for today.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Sacramento at Clippers: We’ve seen the slightest of moves towards the Kings on this one, as the game opened Clippers -10 and is now 9.5 after the Clippers received 58% of the early wagers. I have the Clippers winning this one by 13, but Paul George is out for this revenge game for Los Angeles. The last time the teams met the Kings went into Los Angeles and drubbed the Clippers 124-103 in the first game back home after a five-game road swing for Los Angeles.

Dallas at Atlanta: Seeing a bit of a move towards Atlanta here, as Dallas has moved from -7 to -6 despite getting close to 60% of the wagers. The numbers have Dallas winning by double digits and the Mavs are 6-1 ATS when playing a team they defeated by 20 or more points the previous meeting but will respect the move and just stay clear of this one.

Cleveland at Miami: The Heat opened -13.5 and the line has stayed there with Miami getting a slight majority of the wagers right now. Miami is coming off a brutal road swing and will be glad to be back home, as they honor Dwayne Wade this weekend. Normally, teams playing their first game after a lengthy road trip aren’t the greatest of wagers, but with the All-Star break, the Heat’s road swing wasn’t what it appears to be. The Heat defeated Cleveland 124-100 when they last played here in November and think it will be more of the same in this one, so will take a shot on Miami and lay the points in this one.

Houston at Utah: We’ve seen a slight move towards the Jazz here, as they opened -1 and are now favored by 2 after getting 30% of the wagers in the game. The road team has won the first two games this season. Lean to the Jazz in this one, but probably won’t make a play on the game.

END OF FEB. 22 PICKS

Spent a little too much time handicapping this morning and not enough time writing, so posting the numbers for all five of our articles and then coming back and looking at some games and giving out our plays. e split in the NBA on Thursday to move to 67-61 for the season. Will have one play for the evening.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Dallas at Orlando: The Mavs opened -3.5 and the number has inched up to Dallas -4 even though Dallas is getting more than 85% of the early wagers in the game. Want no part of Dallas in this one and would lean to Orlando plus the points, but won’t be backing them as the numbers have Dallas winning by 6.

Phoenix at Toronto: This one is much the same as the game directly above, as Toronto opened -7.5 and the Raptors have gotten roughly 80% of the wagers in the game, yet the spread has stayed the same of moved to 8, so less of a move that you would expect.

Denver at Oklahoma City: This one opened even and Denver has gotten more than 70% of the wagers in the game, yet the Thunder are now favored by 1.5. I have Oklahoma City winning by 2, but am going to take a shot on the Thunder in this one. The Thunder are 8-6-1 ATS at home after losing the previous meeting to a foe and 4-2 straight-up as a favorite after losing to a team the previous game. Oklahoma City is 15-9 ATS in all situations when avenging a loss this season and will take a shot with them in this one.

Memphis at Los Angeles: The Lakers are favored by 11 and I have them winning by 3, but the Grizzlies have been solid playing with no rest, sporting a 5-2 record against the spread. If the line were a little higher, would take a long look at Memphis, but at this price will just stay away.

END OF FEB. 21 PICKS

Back to the NBA today and we have just six games on tap, with a pair of double-digit road favorites. After going a blistering 30-11 ATS last year, they are just 6-13 this season. Last year the road favorites lost outright just three times and they’ve already been knocked off four times this season, so a definite reversal there. The public didn’t waste any time getting back into the NBA and are following a bit of the group mentality today, as all teams currently have at least 64% of the wagers.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Milwaukee at Detroit: The Bucks are favored by 13 and could probably cover this one if they really made an effort, with the 76ers up next, this isn’t an ideal spot, but the Bucks have covered their games right before the 76ers and Celtics, probably their two biggest threats in the East. The Pistons have this game and then head West for a four-game road trip and not sure how they’ll approach this one, so just going to stay away here.

Miami at Atlanta: The Heat have finally reached 6.5 and have cruised past Atlanta both meetings this season, winning by 9 and 14. The Heat stumbled into the break, dropping four of five, but the Hawks are no bargain at home themselves. Miami’s road troubles are pretty well known and it’s hard to lay this many points with a team 13-16 away from home. Atlanta is just 9-17 straight-up at home, but have gone 13-8-1 as a home dog against the spread. The Heat are getting more than 80% of the wagers in this one and the Hawks are 5-1 ATS with two or more days rest, where their defense has allowed 5 fewer points per game, so going to go against the grain and take a shot on Atlanta +6.5

Charlotte at Chicago: The Bulls moved from -4.5 to 5 with 35% of the wagers. Lean to the Bulls in this one but in no hurry to go that way, as Chicago is still a bit shorthanded. The Hornets have covered all three games this season, with the first two games being decided by a point and the Bulls are 3-6-1 this season when favored against a team they previous lost to.

Houston at Golden State: This is a game where I looked at the home dog and the over but am going to end up staying away. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 8 or more points and they did lose here on Christmas Day as 11-point favorites. Golden State is 4-1 ATS as a double-digit home dog this season, so the trends point their direction, but think Houston might play some defense in this one after getting embarrassed by the Warriors last meeting and Houston can be tough when they put their minds to it and play both ends of the floor.

END OF FEB. 20 PICKS

We moved to 65-59 with our NBA plays last night after a split. Had this article written and (I thought) posted, but must have done something, so starting again. Will get the play up and then come back and add some details for both games.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Los Angeles at Boston: This is a game where you can make a case for both teams and one I’ll stay away from. The Clippers have been a solid team against the spread after a loss, going 13-3 against the number, but in a little bit of a surprise, the Clipper are just 2-3 when they’re made road underdogs. Would have expected a little more out of them, but the home team and fans also get excited to play Los Angeles, so manybe not a complete shock.

The Celtics have been a good team after a loss, going 10-5 ATS and they’ve also fared well after a double-digit loss, going 5-1 against the spread. One of these teams will enter the break on a losing skid, but really have no idea which one it will be and a game I have no interest in playing.

Oklahoma City at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 2.5 and I have this one even in a series that has seen the Thunder win all of the previous meeting this year. Will be on the Thunder +2.5 in this one and you can find a few 3s out there. Oklahoma City might be getting the short end of the stick as far as public perception goes in this one, but the Thunder are a better team and have won the first three meetings. Normally, a possible letdown might occur, but think the hype of Zion will have Oklahoma City ready to play this one.

The Thunder have played pretty well in games that are expected to be high-scoring affairs, going 7-1 straight-up and a perfect 8-0 against the number. New Orleans may have Williamson but believe Oklahoma City has the better overall team and will take them as small underdogs here, as New Orleans is getting 80% of the wagers still. The number is now up to 3 everywhere.

END OF FEB. 13 PICKS

We moved to 64-58 with our NBA plays on Tuesday, as the 76ers got the job done both in the side and the total, as the game played out pretty much where the numbers had, as they called for a 112-105 Philadelphia win and the final was 110-103. Huge slate of games for Wednesday and it’s always a bit tricky here, as this will be the final game for everybody before the All-Star break and some players are more interested in getting to the airport in time than they are what happens tonight.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Atlanta at Cleveland: The Hawks are favored on the road for the first time this season and it’s never a good idea to back a team in an unfamiliar role. Atlanta did win their lone attempt last year, however, but want no part of them in this spot. Even though the numbers like the Cavs, really don’t want any part of a Cleveland team that has won just six games at home this season and while they can’t play defense, at least the Hawks can score.

Milwaukee at Indiana: This line is obviously due to Giannis Antetokounmpo missing the game and George Hill and Korver are also expected to be out for Milwaukee in this one. Would love to take Indiana in this spot, but the Pacers have dropped five straight games, which is understandable over the course of a long season, but is disappointing due to the way they’ve played in a few of those games, giving little defensive effort, which is supposedly the team’s strength.

Sacramento at Dallas: The Mavs opened -9 and the line is now 8.5 with the home team getting a slight majority of the wagers. The Kings have gone 5-3 as an away dog of 8 or more points and Dallas is 4-4 as a home favorite of 8 or more points. I expected the Mavs to be getting more wagers after it was announced that Doncic would be back for this one and I don’t really agree with the decision, as I’d be inclined to rest him for this one and give him the all-star break off.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets: The Lakers opened as 2.5-point favorites in this one and the line is still there despite Los Angeles getting 75% of the wagers in the game. True, it’s a big revenge game for the Lakers, but it’s also a big game for Denver, who lost by nine points at home the first time the teams played. The Nuggets were 2.5-point favorites in that one and don’t really see anything that would lead me to believe that the Lakers have gotten five points better since then. This is the first time Denver has been a home underdog all season, so will take a shot on the Nuggets +2.5 in this one.

END OF FEB. 12 PICKS

Stunk it up on Monday, splitting the two NBA games but dropping the three college plays, one of which was just plain brutal, which we had our chances with the other two, but it wasn’t meant to be. A smaller slate of NBA games than we’ve seen and it will be huge tomorrow, followed by just a couple of games on Thursday and then the All-Star break.

We’re 62-58 with our NBA plays for the year, so will see what we can come up with for tonight, where we have a couple of pretty solid games despite the light schedule.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

Chicago Bulls at Washington: This isn’t one of the better games, however, although the teams are somewhat evenly matched. The Wizards opened -3 and the line has dropped to 2.5 even though Washington is getting a huge percentage of the early wagers in the game. I have the Wizards winning by 3 and both teams have been pretty strong against the spread after a loss, with the Bulls going 20-13-1 and the Wizards 18-14 ATS.

Los Angeles at Philadelphia: Good game here, where the Clippers opened -1 and the line is still there with Los Angeles getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The 76ers have been a home underdog just twice this season and knocked off both Milwaukee and the Lakers in style, beating the Bucks by 12 and defeating the Lakers by 17. The Clippers rebounded with a big win over Cleveland, which isn’t a great accomplishment, after getting thumped by the Timberwolves, but hard to go against a home underdog who sports a 24-2 home record. I have the 76ers winning by 7, so will take a shot on Philadelphia in this one.

Portland at New Orleans: The line is this one just dropped from New Orleans -3 to 2.5, with Zion listed as probable for the Pelicans. Not so sure I’d play him here, but every game is a big one for New Orleans, who find themselves five games behind Memphis for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs, the disadvantage of playing in the West this year. No real interest in this one, although lean to the home team.

San Antonio at Oklahoma City: The Thunder are now favored by 7.5 and I have them winning by 8, so pretty close to the number. The Spurs were defeated 127-120 by Denver last night, but should get a slower pace in this one. The Thunder have been a solid team when the totals are higher, as Oklahoma is 21-7-1 when the total is at least 218 and 12-11-1 when the total is 217.5 or lower. Pretty close to the number in this one.

Boston at Houston: The Rockets opened -2 and the line is still there with the Celtics getting roughly 60% of the wagers in this one. The Rockets have dropped both games as a small favorite, losing to the Bucks and Lakers, but not so sure I’d put the Celtics in that category. Should be a good game, but a tough call from a handicapping perspective, so will just stay away.

END OF FEB. 11 PICKS

Pretty big slate of NBA games for this Monday, as we near the All-Star break, so we’ll take it easy over the next few days. Lines are slow to come out in the NBA right now, due to a number of injuries and other factors that are taking a toll on particular teams. We managed to get there by a point last night with the Blazers on a strange day that saw us go 3-2 overall, with none of the wins particular impressive, but they all count the same. We’re 61-57 in the NBA, so a little bit of work to do.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Atlanta at Orlando: We lost a little bit of value in this one, as the overnight line was Orlando -6.5 and it is now Magic -8. Can’t blame anybody for liking the Magic in this spot, as the Hawks are coming off a double-overtime win on Sunday. Teams who allowed 120 points or more and won are 13-25 ATS when underdogs in their next game.

Sacramento at Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable for this one due to personal reasons and with the line dropping 4 points this morning, there are some people who don’t think he’ll be in action. While it’s definitely a blow to the Bucks, Milwaukee is probably one of the few teams who can overcome his loss and still be impressive. Milwaukee has plenty of other talent on the team and double-digit dogs who have won at least three straight are about 46% over the years. Will go ahead and go against the move in this one and take a shot on Milwaukee -10.5.

Miami at Golden State: The Heat are favored by 5 after opening as 6-point favorites and receiving more than 60% of the wagers, so the Warriors are getting a little bit of action. The Heat played a better game at Portland last night and are in a bit of a favorable situation regarding road favorites who have lost at least three straight games. Playing the previous night does take away from that trend a bit, however, so this is one I’d just stay away from even though my numbers are calling for a lean on Golden State.

Phoenix at Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 12.5 after opening as 11.5-point favorites and getting the bulk of the wagers. The Lakers allowed 120 points in their win over golden State last time out, but favorites are 16-13 ATS after allowing 120 or more points in a winning effort.

END OF FEB. 10 PICKS

A 2-1 night in the NBA on Saturday after sneaking through with the over in the Sacramento game by a half-point. We’ve lost our share of those games this season, so it’s always nice to get one to fall the right way.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

We’ll look at a few of the games on today’s schedule and we’re seeing some stands by the wise guys, as we’re really trying to hold our own the next few days until we get to the all-star break, when things settle down a little bit after all the excitement of the trade deadline and hopefully a few injured players will return, as it makes sense for teams to give a player an extra day or rest or two with the break coming up.

Memphis at Washington: Memphis opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line is up to with the Grizzlies getting more than 75% of the wagers in the game. Not that I put any weight to it, but Memphis is 6-1 ATS playing on Sunday, while the Wizards are just 1-5 ATS, but that’s likely just a random occurrence and definitely not a reason to make a wager in this one. I do have the Wizards winning by a pair and would likely lean that way, but no real interest in playing this game.

Utah at Houston: Utah is getting a little action here, as the line opened Houston -4 and the number is down to 3.5 with the Rockets getting 65% of the wagers in the game so far. It is a revenge game for the Jazz, who lost at home to the Rockets a couple of weeks ago, but Utah is just 1-3 revenging a home loss to an opponent. I’d lean to Houston but the line movement will keep me away from this one.

Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland: The Clippers put forth a crappy effort last night and were completely waxed by Minnesota and big money is coming against them in this one. The Clippers opened -8 and the line is all the way down to 6 even though Los Angeles is getting the majority of the wagers in this one. I have the Clippers winning by 10, but not too eager to buck the line movement and will pass.

Miami at Portland: The Blazers have moved from -3 to -5 in this one, even though they’re getting 43% of the wagers. The Heat are hurting and still waiting for a few players who they acquired to make their debut with the team. Miami won by 11 at home the last time these two met, but have gotten waxed their last two games and think it will continue here, so will take a shot on Portland -5.

END OF FEB. 9 PICKS

An overall 2-2 night last night, although I did drop both NBA plays. Running a bit late, so want to get the plays posted for each of the articles and then will come back right after a fill in the blanks, look at a few other games, etc.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Milwaukee at Orlando: A bit of a revenge game for the Magic, who were thumped here the Bucks earlier this year, but it was all the way back in November. They also lost both games in Milwaukee by double-digits, so this is the type of game the Magic may be able to catch the Bucks a little flat, as they’re coming off wins at New Orleans and last time out was a home win against the 76ers.

New York at Detroit: The Pistons have fallen on hard times, which is evident when you’re a home underdog to the Knicks, who find themselves favored for just the second time all season. They did get the win and cover in Washington their first attempt. The Pistons won by 20 the last time the teams played and New York is 10-5 ATS when playing a team it lost to by 20 or more points the previous time the teams met.

New Orleans at Indiana: I went in and adjusted the New Orleans offense to account for having everybody healthy and in the line-up, which changed things from a 10-point Indiana win to a 6-point Pacers’ victory, which is still four points higher than the spread. The Pacers played an ugly game last night, but think they’ll respond a little bit here and will take a stab on the home team.

Denver at Phoenix: The Nuggets are favored by 3.5 and this isn’t an ideal spot for Denver, as they’re coming off a huge win over the Utah Jazz and now playing a Phoenix team that they beat by two points when they played here last time. Two of the three games between these two teams have been decided by two points or less, so it’s possible the points could come into play, but the line is a little cheaper than I was hoping for and will just stay away.

END OF FEB. 8 PICKS

We did win our lone NBA play on Thursday and our slight lean with the Knicks on the side play to move to 58-54 on the season, so not quite as well as need to be. We’ve managed to avoid the lengthy losing streak of last season, but haven’t put together the same type of winning streak that we saw last year, either.

It’s always a little tricky for a few days after the trade deadline, as players are coming and going and teams trying to blend in some new players with some familiar faces. Also, some of the season to date numbers aren’t quite as accurate, so a little guesswork and some waiting to see how things play out is never a bad idea.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

We’ll have just one play today, as some games are a little unclear due to injuries. When you look at the injury report for the Dallas Mavericks or Boston Celtics and see five or six names, it’s probably best to just pass, especially since the majority of those are listed as questionable.

Portland at Utah: The Jazz opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line is still there with pretty mixed betting, so will go ahead and take the Jazz and lay the points in this one. Teams in Utah’s situation of being a home favorite who lost their previous game as a home favorite of 6 or more points when hosting a team off a home win the previous night has been a decent play over the years, going 42-32-1 (56.8%). The record climbs to 17-10-1 if the home team is playing with revenge and the Jazz were waxed in Portland last week by a 124-107 final score, so the Jazz should be looking to make some amends in this one.

Utah hasn’t been the greatest team playing with revenge this season, but are 4-3 ATS when playing a team who defeated them by double-digits the previous time they met and the Jazz are 4-4 as a home favorite after a loss and 3-2 ATS when favored by 8 or more.

Utah had everything in its favor when Denver came to town a couple of nights ago and still managed to lose, so this game should be a good indication of what the Jazz are made of, so will take a shot with the home favorite.

END OF FEB. 7 PICKS

We split our two NBA games on Wednesday and are still a little below where we need to be, bringing a 57-54 record into today, as we’ve never really had a big push and any modest winning streak has usually been followed by a small losing skid and vice-versa.

Just five games on the schedule and while there are a few good ones, it’s not really a great card from a handicapping perspective, so no official plays.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
New YorkAtlantaAtlanta -4.5Atlanta 116-110Atlanta 124-117
DetroitPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia -11Philadelphia 111-97Philadelphia 110-98
CharlotteMiamiMiami -10Miami 116-97Miami 113-99
UtahOklahoma CityOklahoma City -2Oklahoma City 111-109Even 112-112
DenverDallasDenver -1Dallas 114-109Dallas 119-113
New OrleansSacramentoNew Orleans -1Sacramento 115-114New Orleans 122-119

Orlando at New York: The Magic have moved from -3 to -2.5 in this one even though they have received more than 80% of the wagers. The Magic are 3-4-1 ATS playing the second of a back to back situation and have won outright just once, although they’re usually underdogs, which isn’t the case in this one. I have the Magic winning by a pair, so no real edge in this one and I’ll just stay away. If I had to have side action, I’d give a look to the Knicks, but nothing more than a slight lean.

New Orleans at Chicago: As I mentioned in the totals article, it’s a bit hard to take the New Orleans season stats on face value, as Williamson has been a big boost and the team is playing better. After having battled a couple of heavyweights in Houston and Milwaukee, they should definitely find the Bulls a little more to their liking, but still not entirely sure they should be favored by 4.5 points on the road. The Bulls are just 1-10 straight-up and 3-8 ATS as a home dog, so want no part of them in this one and will just sit this one out.

Philadelphia at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened -9 and the line is down to 8.5 even though the Bucks are getting more than 70% of the wagers, which was a bit of a surprise, as I expected a few more bets on the underdog plus all the points. The 76ers waxed Milwaukee at home when the teams met Christmas Day. I have Milwaukee rolling to a win, but this is the largest underdog the 76ers have been all season and coupled with the line moved will just stay away.

San Antonio at Portland: The Blazers have moved from 3 to 3.5 in this one and are getting the vast majority of early wagers. I have Portland winning by 5, so a little bit of an edge there in terms of raw numbers, but in no hurry to back a team getting more than 80% of the wagers in a game, so will just sit this one out.

Houston at Lakers: The Lakers have been getting the majority of wagers in this one and I have them covering the spread, which has moved from the opening number of 6.5 to 7.5. The Lakers have gotten more than 75% of the wagers wagers and the Rockets have gone 2-0 when getting 6 or more points. This is the most points Houston has received all year except for the game at Utah when they were down several players and won outright as 12-point dogs.

END OF FEB. 6 PICKS

Pretty good-sized slate of games here for Wednesday after we threw in a crappy play last night on the Spurs. We had a tough loss with the under in the Denver game, as the Nuggets came out and pretty much did what I expected them to on defense, but scored a few more points on offense than I expected and a one -point loss on the game, but onto Wednesday.

Away TeamHome TeamLineProjection - Season StatsProjection - 2020 Stats
BostonIndianaCeltics -3Indiana 105-104Celtics 107-106
New YorkWashingtonWashington -4.5Washington 117-109Washington 114-108
ClevelandChicagoChicago -3.5Chicago 109-102Chicago 112-107
MinnesotaHoustonHouston -12.5Houston 128-117Houston 130-118
OrlandoMemphisMemphis -2.5Memphis 111-108Memphis 110-103
DallasSan AntonioDallas -3.5Dallas 118-112Dallas 112-109
PhoenixPortlandPortland -5Portland 119-115Portland 120-116
BrooklynLA LakersLA Lakers -10.5Lakers 117-104Lakers 119-105
LA ClippersGolden StateLA Clippers -11.5Clippers 118-107Clippers 121-105

A couple of strange betting patterns taking place in today’s games and we’ll just take a look at several of them due to time constraints.

Denver at Utah: No real surprise the line is going up in this one as the Jazz opened -8 and the line has now climbed to 9 with the Jazz getting 45% of the wagers in the game. The Nuggets played last night and didn’t really have any trouble getting the win, but did exert a little energy in the second quarter, which is really the one quarter where they gave their best effort on defense. Even though the Nuggets are used to playing in a high altitude, playing the second straight day in Utah isn’t an ideal situation for any team. I have the game a little bit closer, with Utah predicted to win by six points, but don’t really want any part of Denver in this one, but the line is also too high now to make a play on the Jazz, so one to stay away from.

Miami at Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers opened -6.5 and the number is still there with the betting being pretty well split right down the middle. As good as the Miami Heat are at home, they’re not quite the same team once they take to the road and Miami is 12-12 away from home, while the Clippers are 21-5 at home. The Clippers did win at Miami a couple of weeks ago as slight favorites in a game I thought the Heat would play a little better, so Miami does have revenge in their favor, but the Clippers probably remember the last time the Heat paid a vist to Los Angeles and won by more than 20 points, which is something the Los Angeles coaches have probably reminded their players a dozen times in the last couple of days. I have Los Angeles winning this one by double digits and will go ahead and take a shot on the Clippers to get the cover in this spot.

END OF FEB. 5 PICKS

An all-around ugly day on Monday, as well fell to 56-51 with the NBA plays, which is basically right around the break-even point. Too much thinking and not enough following the numbers and trends. Just four games on the slate for Tuesday, so will at least be able to spend a few extra minutes on each game and see what we can come up with.

 

Coming off a loss with the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, as they waited a bit too long to play and made it interesting at the end, but came up a few points short. With just four games on the schedule, we’ll take a look at a few trends, which is what we try to do on days with small schedules.

January wasn’t kind to home teams, as they had just a 102-116-4 (46.8%) record against the spread and they were 112-110 straight-up. Home favorites fared better than home underdogs against the number, as they were 63-67-2 (48.5%) and home dogs were just 32-39-2 (45.1%) against the number and were an unsightly 19-54 straight up.
The first few days of February have been better for the home teams, who are 14-10, with home favorites going 11-5, although you’re just looking at a couple of days worth of stats and can’t really put a whole lot of weight into the early February trends.

Milwaukee at New Orleans: Decent game here, where the Bucks have received more than 80% of the early wagers, which has pushed the number up from the opening of -6 to 6.5. The Pelicans are playing better now that they have Zion Williamson and his return was a boost both on the court and mentally for the Pelicans, who were 9-6 and 12-3 ATS in January, but did drop their lone game so far in February, when they gave Houston a battle but came up short. New Orleans was a public in that one and bettors may be holding that loss against them a little bit, as the Bucks are receiving a huge number of the wagers.

Charlotte at Houston: The rockets are huge favorites in the battle of the walked wounded, as Capela is out and Westbrook is doubtful for this one for the Rockets, while the Hornets are going to miss P.J. Washington and his 12.2 points per game. Probably a game to stay away from.

Portland at Denver: The Blazers are playing well but will get a tough test in this one against the Denver Nuggets in what is a bit of a big game for Denver. While they’re favored by 4.5 they have to show they can dictate a game on their home floor against a team who will try and dictate the flow of the game. The betting is pretty even.

San Antonio at Lakers: The Lakers opened -12 and the line is still there, as the Spurs are getting a little less than 60% of the wagers. I have the Lakers winning by 11 and San Antonio is 3-0 ATS when getting 8 or more points, while the Lakers are 9-8 as a home favorite of 8 or more. Think the Spurs can keep this one within the number and will take San Antonio +12 here.

END OF FEB. 4 PICKS

Another split in the NBA on Sunday, as we move to 56-49 for the season and now have a pretty good-sized slate of games after the small schedule on Super Bowl Sunday. Several decent moves so far today and a couple of games that should likely have seen bigger moves based on the betting.

New York at Cleveland: This one opened even and now the Cavs are favored by 2 even though it’s been the Knicks who have received two-thirds of the early wagers. I have Cleveland winning by just a point, however, so will stay away and not go against the numbers.

Golden State at Washington: The Wizards opened -6 and the line has dropped slightly to Wizards -5.5 even though the home team is getting 75% of the early wagers in the game. Another case where the line move and the numbers are pointing towards opposite sides and another pass.

Dallas at Indiana: The projection here doesn’t take the Mavs’ injury situation into consideration, which makes it pretty much worthless and a game I’ll stay away from.

Phoenix at Brooklyn: The Nets opened -2.5 and the line has held steady even though Brooklyn is getting two-thirds of the wagers. We’re seeing the odds shift at a few places, where you’re asked to lay -115 if you want Brooklyn -2.5.

Philadelphia at Miami: Not really sure why this one opened so low, as the Heat moved from -2 to -2.5 and are getting 80% of the early wagers in the game. I have Miami winning by double digits, but the line is a bit baffling in this one and will just stay away.

Boston at Atlanta: The Celtics opened -6 and the line has moved to 6.5 with Boston getting close to 90% of the early bets in the game. Looks to be a bit of a bad number, as Boston should have opened closer to 7, but not sure if oddsmakers are expecting a bit of a letdown for the Celtics after the win over Philadlephia. Both teams battling some injuries.

Minnesota at Sacramento: The Kings opened as 3-point favorites and the line has dropped to 2 even though Sacramento is getting two-thirds of the wagers. The Kings defeated Minnesota in overtime a week ago and after playing Oklahoma City and both Los Angeles teams, could have a bit of a letdown here. It’s far easier to get up for LeBron James and the Lakers than it is for Minnesota, so will take the Timberwolves +2 in this one.

END OF FEB. 3 PICKS

Another split in the NBA on Saturday, as we dropped to 55-48 overall in the pros and a poor 1-3 day in college basketball. Always tell you when I lose, since the majority of public handicappers are quick to tell you when they have a winning day and they’re strangely silent after a losing one.

Anyway, just four NBA games on today’s schedule, as the league wisely doesn’t want to go up against the Super Bowl, so all of them have early starts. We’ll look at each game a little bit due to the small slate.

Denver at Detroit: The Nuggets opened -2 and have gotten a huge majority of the wagers in this one and the line stayed put for a while and just recently moved to 2.5. Both teams are in poor spots, as Denver is just 13-20 against the spread after a win and Detroit has gone 12-20 ATS after a loss. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one hit 3 due to the Nuggets getting close to 90% of the wagers so far this morning. Denver does have a game with the resurgent Blazers up next.

New Orleans at Houston: The line here is a bit of a surprise, as the Rockets should be favored by a bit more, even with Clint Capela out for the Rockets. There could be a bit of a letdown after betting Dallas last time out. but New Orleans throttled Houston 127-112 on Dec. 29, the last time the teams met. New Orleans is getting bet pretty well in this one, garnering more than two-thirds of the wagers in the game so far. The Pelicans are 12-6-1 ATS after a win, but have to believe the number is too cheap, so will go ahead and go against the public in this one and take the Rockets -5.

Phoenix at Milwaukee: The line is pretty close to the projection and both teams have winning records against the spread after a loss. Obviously, Phoenix is much more accustomed to being in that position than Milwaukee, who threw in a clunker last time. The big man for the Bucks is listed as questionable for this one, so not really eager to get involved with this game from a pointspread perspective.

Chicago at Toronto: The Bulls let us down last time in the preferred role as an underdog after a straight-up loss, although they’re still 19-11-1 in the spot for the season. The Raptors are also 20-14 against the spread after a victory, which pretty much negates Chicago’s record in the role. With the line within a half-point of the predicted score, no need to play this one and it’s pretty much a toss-up. The Raptors do have a home-and-home series with the Pacers on tap, so may not be entirely focused for this game, so will just stay clear of this one.

END OF FEB. 2 PICKS

We split our two NBA games last night, winning the totals play and dropping the side wager on the Bulls, who got behind big early and would make a few runs, only to see the Nets turn around and distance themselves once again.

One early game today, with everything else at the standard times, as we’re now 54-47 with our NBA plays.

 

Minnesota at Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers are favored by 10 and perhaps the death of Kobe Bryant had a bigger effect on the two Los Angeles teams than was given credit for. The teams canceled their game against each other and then both LA teams went out and were thumped as huge home favorites. The Clippers came out as 14-point favorites to Sacramento and were defeated 124-103. Leonard is questionable for this one, but think it’s a solid spot for the Clippers and am going to go ahead and lay the points, although I’m sure it will be a bit of a square play. Minnesota is just 10-21 ATS after a loss and the Clippers have shown a tendency to bounce back after a poor game, going 11-3 against the spread after a setback.

Brooklyn at Washington: The Nets opened -1.5 and now the Wizards are the slight favorites after getting just 54% of the early wagers, so we’re definitely seeing a bigger line move than the wagering would suggest. The Wizards are 5-4 as a home favorite this season. Small home favorites are still doing dismal for the season, but have won five of the last six.

Atlanta at Dallas: Doncic is still out for the Mavericks and it’s certainly reflected in the line, but the Hawks also have a few injury issues of their own, but the Mavs aren’t nearly as effective at home as they’ve been on the road this season, as they’re 10-15 ATS playing in front of the home fans.

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento: The Lakers lost 127-119 to the Blazers last night as 13-point favorites and now have to try and get things turned around on the road. The Kings gave the Lakers a battle the first time they met, but think it may be a little easier for the Los Angeles teams at home, at least for a while, as away teams may hold special ceremonies for Kobe when the Lakers are in town, which could be a bit of a distraction.

END OF FEB. 1 PICKS

Pretty much an unfulfilling 3-2 night last night, as most who followed the NBA totals play pushed or lost depending on when they made their wager, while it was a one-point winner for me and those are the games I hate the most. How you do with your sportsbook is far more important than my record on these pages.

We have a seven-game schedule tonight and the big game, Dallas at Houston has lost most of its luster with Doncic out and Hardaway is listed as questionable, and that’s reflected in the line. We’re 53-46 in the NBA and will see what we can come up with today, as the wise guys have already been busy this morning in both the NBA and college basketball.

Toronto at Detroit: This could be one of those games where the lack of line movement is just as telling as a move of several points. The Raptors opened -4.5 and the line has stayed there despite Toronto receiving more than 80% of the early wagers. I’d normally look at Detroit in this spot, but the numbers predict Toronto to win by 5, so a game I’ll stay away from.

Chicago at Brooklyn: The Nets are another team who have been getting bet pretty heavy this morning and the line has moved from Brooklyn -5 to -5.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the home team. The Bulls have been a solid team after a loss, going 19-10-1 against the spread, while the Nets are 8-11 ATS after a win. With the numbers and the trends both pointing to Chicago, will take the Bulls +5.5 for today’s play.

Dallas at Houston: The overnight line had Houston favored by 5 and it’s now Houston -9.5 due to the injury situation of Dallas. Obviously, the projection of 119-119 is out the window and this is a game I’ll just stay away from.

Oklahoma City at Phoenix: Another game where the line has held despite a large percentage of bets coming in on the road favorite, as the Thunder are holding at the opening number of -1 with more than 80% of the wagers. I have the Thunder winning by two and Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS after a win, so definitely mixed signals on this game.

Denver at Milwaukee: The line is high in this one, but it’s probably pretty accurate, as Denver is just 2-6 when playing with no rest and 12-20 against the spread after a victory. The Bucks are in a poor spot, however, as teams who scored 150 or more points their last game are just 2-7 ATS since the start of last season.

END OF JAN. 31 PICKS

Toronto at Cleveland: The Raptors are in a long-term favorable situation that involves road favorites who play the following night on the road (848-747-28, 53.2%) but as the line climbs the winning percentage drops, as favorites of 7 or more points are 193-193-7 and double-digit favorites are 40-42-2. But hard to take the Cavaliers in this spot as they are just 13-20-1 ATS after a loss and 6-8-1 as a home dog after a loss. The Raptors are 19-13 ATS after a win and 5-3 ATS as a road favorite after a win.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: The number here is pretty much split between 7.5 and 8 as some 76er money came in after the Hawks received the majority of the early overnight money. The 76ers now have a slight majority of the wagers in the game. The 76ers haven’t been the most reliable team after a win, going just 13-16-1 against the number and they’re 3-7 ATS as a road favorite after a victory. The Hawks are 17-18 ATS after a loss, but they are 10-5 ATS as a home underdog after a setback. With the numbers and the trends pointing to Atlanta will take the Hawks +7.5 in this one.

Utah at Denver: The Jazz are 2-2 ATS and 3-1 straight-up when playing in the second game of a back-to-back situation, although all three of those wins came at home. The lone game Utah was on the road, they lost by double-digits to Philadelphia. The Nuggets are 6-0 in division games this season straight-up and 4-2 ATS, although this is the first meeting of the year between the two teams.

Small home favorites this season have been just dismal, with home chalk of 2 or fewer points going 15-39 against the spread and just 17-37 straight-up and that’s after three of the last four teams in that situation have covered the spread.

END OF JAN. 30 PICKS

A split in the NBA on Tuesday and now just six games on the slate for Wednesday, so we’ll see what we can come up with on a somewhat abbreviated schedule of games.

Chicago at Indiana: The Pacers opened as 9-point favorites and the line is still there despite Indiana attracting pretty close to 75% of the wagers. I have the Pacers winning this one by seven, but the Bulls haven’t been very good after a victory, going just 6-12 against the spread. The Pacers are coming off a loss and Indiana has gone 9-7 against the number after a setback.

Detroit at Brooklyn: Strange movement in this one, as the Nets have moved from -5 to -6.5 even though the Pistons are getting close to 58% of the wagers in the game. I have Brooklyn winning this one by three, but no real interest in going against the line move and Detroit is just 12-18 against the spread after a loss.

Memphis at New York: The Grizzlies have gone from 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites and are getting more than 80% of the early wagers, which should flatten out a little bit throughout the day. I have Memphis winning by two points and the Grizzlies are 12-9-1 ATS after a win, but New York 18-16 against the spread after a loss.

Utah at San Antonio: The Jazz opened as 5-point favorites and the line is holding steady with Utah getting more than 70% of the early wagers. The Jazz are 7-6 ATS after a loss, while the Spurs are 14-11 against the number after a setback. I have the Jazz winning by two and will take the Spurs +5 in this one. The Spurs are 12-11 as underdogs this season compared to 6-15 ATS when favorites.

Oklahoma City at Sacramento: The Thunder opened as 2.5-point favorites and the number has been bet up to 3 with Oklahoma City getting more than 80% of the early wagers in the game. The Thunder are 10-8-1 ATS after a loss, while the Kings are 9-7 against the spread after a win. I have the Thunder winning by three, so no edge in this one.

Houston at Portland: The Rockets are favored by 2 in this one and are getting 65% of the early wagers. I have Houston winning by a point, but the Blazers are just 7-12 ATS after a win.

END OF JAN. 29 PICKS

A split in the NBA on Monday night, as we moved to 48-45 overall in the NBA between our sides and totals articles. We lost some of archives during a site upgrade, so I can’t give a breakdown of each of the two plays, which are pretty close in results, but was able to cobble the combined results together from my worksheets. A little above 50%, but a little below the break-even point, so looking to get these moving in the right direction, as we didn’t have the huge run as we did with totals last year, but have also managed to avoid the huge slide we had with them at the midway point of the season.

New York at Charlotte: The Hornets opened as 1-point favorites and the line is up to Charlotte -2 on pretty mixed betting, while I have Charlotte winning by five. The Hornets are 2-2 as a favorite this season and this is the first game where the Knicks have been an away underdog of less than 3 points. Lean towards the home team, but not really sure about laying points with them.

Golden State at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened as 13.5-point favorites and we haven’t seen any movement on the game so far, with golden State getting the large majority of early wagers. I have Philadelphia by 21, but the 76ers did wallop the Lakers last game and could have a bit of a letdown.

Boston at Miami: The Heat opened -3 and are now -2.5 with the betting split right down the middle. Miami rolled past Orlando last night, so not the best of spots even though I have Miami by six.

New Orleans at Cleveland: The Pelicans have moved from -6.5 to -8 with more than 85% of the early wagers coming in on New Orleans. I have the Pelicans winning by just two and a tough spot, as the Pelicans are coming off a win against Boston and now playing a team they’ve thumped twice this month. Will take the Cavs +8 in this spot.

Atlanta at Toronto: The Raptors have dropped from -12.5 to -12 with the Hawks getting a slight majority of the early bets. I have Toronto winning by 22, although the Hawks have played them tough both games this year.

Denver at Memphis: The Nuggets have moved from even to -1 after getting 80% of the early wagers and I have Denver winning by three, so pretty close to the number.

Washington at Milwaukee: The Bucks are favored by 16, which is where the line opened, and Milwaukee has received two-thirds of the early wagers. I have the Bucks winning by 24, but not sure how much the overseas trip took out of them.

Phoenix at Dallas: The Mavs have moved from -6.5 to -6 even with three-quarters of the wagers, as bettors may be catching on to Dallas being a pretty average team at home. I have Dallas by nine, but no interest in this spot.

END OF JAN. 28 PICKS

Our little run in the NBA came to a crashing halt on Sunday, as we dropped both games, but did sweep the college plays for a 5-2 overall day. Today we’re faced with a six-game schedule that has a decent one between the Mavs and Oklahoma City, while the Jazz and Rockets have lost a little bit with the injury to Harden and Westbrook also sitting the game out due to rest.

Cleveland at Detroit: The Pistons opened as 7-point favorites in this one and the line is now bouncing back-and-forth between 6.5 and 7, although Detroit is getting a little more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. I have Detroit winning by 11 and not real anxious to lay that many points with the Pistons, who dropped a 115-112 decision to these same Cavs at home earlier this month. Detroit is 2-2 straight-up and ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points this season.

Orlando at Miami: Strange one here, as the Heat opened as just 4-point favorites and the number has climbed to 4.5 with the Heat getting close to 65% of the wagers. The opening number seems exceptionally low, when you factor in Orlando’s loss last night, even with Jimmy Butler listed as questionable. Both teams have some injury question marks, so just going to stay clear of this one even though I have the Heat winning by double-digits.

Dallas at Oklahoma City: Decent game here, as the Mavs opened -2 and the line is now Dallas -1 with the Mavs getting 75% of the wagers. I have Dallas winning this one by three points, but no rush to bet on Dallas in this spot. Will just stay clear of this one.

Sacramento at Minnesota: The Timberwolves opened as 3-point favorites and the line is still there with Minnesota getting close to 60% of the wagers. The number does seem a little low until you realize how bad the ‘Wolves have been at home. I have the Kings winning this one by a point and will take Sacramento +3 as they look to avenge last month’s home loss to Minnesota.

San Antonio at Chicago: The Spurs opened as 2-point favorites and the line is holding steady with the Spurs getting more than 70% of the wagers. I have the Bulls winning by a point in a tough game to play.

Houston at Utah: The Jazz opened 11.5 and are now favored by 12.5 in a game that is seeing pretty mixed betting. The spread is due to the loss of Harden and Westbrook for this game. Would look to take Utah here, but the Jazz may be a little flat to see Houston without two of its key players.

END OF JAN. 27 PICKS

We managed to win Saturday, as Philadelphia took it to Los Angeles and now have a decent-sized slate of NBA games for Sunday. Running a little late, so we’ll get right to it.

Houston at Denver: The Rockets opened as 1-point favorites and now Denver is favored by 2 after getting 54% of the wagers. I have the Nuggets winning this one by 4.

Toronto at San Antonio: The Raptors are getting hit hard in this one, ads Toronto opened as 2-point favorites and now the line is up to Toronto -3 with the Raptors getting more than 80% of the early wagers. I have Toronto winning this one by four, but no interest in taking such a public team as Toronto in this spot.

Boston at New Orleans: The Pelicans are getting a little action here, as the Celtics have moved from -1.5 to -1 after getting more than 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Boston winning by five, but no interest in the Celtics in this spot.

Phoenix at Memphis: The Grizzlies are getting bet a little bit here, with the line moving from Memphis -2.5 to -3 and 80% of the wagers coming in on the home team. I have this one even.

LA Clippers at Orlando: The Clippers opened -4.5 and the line is holding at LAC -4 after the Clippers attracted 75% of the wagers. The Clippers are coming off a win at Miami, so think this is a decent spot for the Magic. I have this one even and will take a shot on the Magic plus the points in this one.

Brooklyn at New York: The Knicks are getting hard in this one, as Brooklyn opened -1.5 and now New York is favored by 1.5 even though the Nets have received 75% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Nets winning by a point, so will stay away.

Washington at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -1 and the line is still there with the Wizards getting the majority of the wagers in the game. I have the Hawks winning this one by 2.

Indiana at Portland: The Blazers are favored by 2 after opening as 1.5-point favorites and getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have the Pacers winning by a point, so will just pass.

END OF JAN. 26 PICKS

Just five games on today’s NBA schedule, where we’re coming off a strange day in basketball, with an 0-3 mark in college hoops and 2-0 in the NBA. A couple of the college games weren’t even close, which doesn’t count any worse than a big loss, but still gets to you a little bit.

On to today’s games, where there are a couple of decent ones.

Dallas at Utah: The Jazz are favored by 4 after opening as 2.5-point favorites and getting close to 65% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Jazz winning by just one, as the Mavs have been a better team away from home this season. Utah is 18-12 ATS after a win, so not really anxious to go against them in this spot, but Dallas is 6-3 straight-up and ATS as a road underdog. The Mavs have dropped their last two games as an away dog.

Brooklyn at Detroit: The Nets opened as 1-point favorites and the line moved to 2 as the Nets have received a large majority of the early wagers in the game. A little surprised the Nets are favored in this one as bad as they’ve been playing lately, but over the years backing away favorites who have lost at least five games in a row has been a pretty decent wager, as these teams are 63-37-3 (63%). I do have the Pistons winning by four so will just stay away from this one.

Chicago at Cleveland: An ugly one here, as the Bulls opened one and now the game is even with Chicago receiving a slight majority of wagers. Chicago is just 1-4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season, so not the type of team you’re anxious to lay points with on the road. I have the Bulls winning by three, but will just stay clear of this one.

Oklahoma City at Minnesota: Interesting one here, as the Thunder opened as 1-point favorites and the line is still there. The Thunder are a better team than the Timberwolves and are 6-0-1 when playing with no rest this season, but the ‘Wolves are in a favorable situation regarding home teams who lost at home the previous night. The Thunder are just the 10th team over the past 11 years to score 140 or more points and home and be in action on the road the following night and these teams are 3-6 straight-up and ATS.

Lakers at Philadelphia: The Lakers are favored by 4.5 and I have Philadelphia winning by five, although that doesn’t factor in the injuries to the 76ers. This is just the second time the 76ers have been a home dog this season and they defeated Milwaukee the first time, so will take Philly +4.5 as a home dog here.

END OF JAN. 25 PICKS

We’ll wrap things up with our NBA side plays on a Friday that has a lot of games, but not too many of them are ones that you’ll make an extra effort to watch.

Milwaukee at Charlotte: Early start here and the Bucks opened -14.5 and the line has dropped to 13.5 with Milwaukee getting more than 80% of the wagers. I have the Bucks winning by 17, but you have to wonder how much effort they’ll put into thumping the Hornets.

Boston at Orlando: This one opened even and now the Magic is favored by 1 even though Boston has gotten the majority of the bets. I have the Celtics winning by two, so a quick pass in this one.

Memphis at Detroit: The Pistons have moved from -1.5 to -1 in a game with pretty even betting. I have Detroit winning by 6.

Toronto at New York: The Raptors have moved from 7.5 to -8 after getting close to 90% of the early wagers. I have Toronto winning this one by 9, but am going to go against the numbers slightly and take a shot on the Knicks +8.

Sacramento at Chicago: The Bulls have moved from -1 to -2.5 and have received 60% of the wagers in the game. I have the Bulls winning this one by 4.

Clippers at Miami: The best game of the night sees the Clippers as 2.5-point favorites, which is where they opened. The Heat are now getting the majority of the wagers in the game and I have them winning by 9, but the betting pattern makes me a little uneasy. If I had to play it, would take Miami but will pass here.

Houston at Minnesota: This one is much like the Toronto game, where the rockets opened 5.5 and the line has dropped to 5 with Houston getting 80% of the wagers. I have Houston winning by 6 and will stay clear in a game I’d like to take Minnesota.

Denver at New Orleans: New Orleans is favored by 3.5 and I have Denver winning by 2, as money continues to come in against the Nuggets the past few games.

Atlanta at Oklahoma City: OKC has moved from -10 to -11 after getting the majority of wagers. I have the home team winning by 17.

Phoenix at San Antonio: The Spurs are holding at -4 after getting 60% of the wagers and I have them winning by 3.

Indiana at Golden State: The Pacers moved from -5.5 to -6 after getting 65% of the wagers and I have them winning by 7.

END OF JAN. 24 PICKS

We’re looking at a three-game slate for tonight, with a couple of decent games, but nothing that definitely makes you want to watch. Given the small slate, we will look at each of the games in a little more detail than we normally have time for.

Washington at Cleveland: The Wizards played a decent game in Miami last night, but were on the losing end in overtime and had to make a decent trip to Cleveland for this one. That is likely one reason the Cavs are getting more than 60% of the early wagers, but the line is holding steady at Cleveland -1. Cleveland is 0-2 ATS as a favorite this year, with both games coming against the Hornets. They are 1-1 straight-up.

The Wizards are 15-13 ATS after a loss and 4-1 ATS playing with no rest. The Cavs are 12-18-1 ATS after a loss. Unrested teams who played in overtime the previous night have gone 7-4 ATS this season, but have been poor wagers over the years. I have the Cavs winning by a point, so will just stay clear of this one.

Lakers at Brooklyn: The Lakers are favored by 6 in this one and I have them winning by the same margin, so this one is a relatively east pass for me. The Lakers are in a 1-5-1 situation regarding away favorites who won the previous night as an away favorite, but a small sample size, so it’s hard to put a lot of weight into that. Since the start of the 2015 season, these teams are 44-48-4, so they were 50% prior to this year.

The Nets have been solid as a home underdog this year, going 6-2 ATS, so you can probably make a case for Brooklyn, but a little hard to pull the trigger on a team that isn’t playing very well at the moment.

Dallas at Portland: A quick rematch of last week’s game, where the Mavericks came away with a 120-112 victory. Portland did win the first meeting of the year in Dallas, so that may be a little additional incentive for Dallas. The Mavs are favored by 2 and are getting two-thirds of the early wagers and I have Dallas winning by five.

The Blazers haven’t been a very good team this season, especially as an underdog, where they are 6-13 ATS and 0-4 at home. Dallas has been a better team away from home and sport a 7-2-1 ATS record as an away favorite, so will have to take Dallas -2 in this one.

END OF JAN. 23 PICKS

 

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