Last Updated: 2019-02-14
Just three games on the NBA slate for Thursday, so we’ll take a look at some trends that have developed so far this season, as we usually do when faced with just a few games.
So far, there’s been no place like home, as home teams are 444-401-18, which is 52.5% and just above the 52.38% break-even point. Home favorites have fared even better, going 293-250-12 (54%) and home favorites of five or more points have been a solid 196-157-10 (55.5%). Double-digit home favorites have been even better, going 76-52-2 (59.4%) against the spread.
Teams playing with no rest are 123-142-8 (46.4%) and are 59-76-6 (44%) when coming off a win and 64-67-2 when coming off a loss. Favorites playing with no rest are 49-48-4, while underdogs playing the second of a back-to-back situation are 71-92-4 (43.6%) and fare worse when coming off a victory the night before.
One aspect that gets talked about on occasion is teams returning home after a long road trip and home teams who played their last four games on the road are 25-33 (43.1%) ATS and just 5-14 against the number when they’re made underdogs.
One area teams are performing pretty poorly is when they’re underdogs after being favored in at least their past three games, as these teams are just 33-50 (39.8%) against the spread.
Charlotte at Orlando: The Magic opened -3 in this one and the line has been bet up to 3.5 with Orlando getting two-thirds of the wagers. The Hornets drilled Orlando 125-100 on New Year’s Eve and also won the first meeting between the two by 32 points. Over the last 20 years, home favorites who lost the last two meetings by 25 or more points are just 5-9 ATS, so a situation that doesn’t happen all that often. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS when playing a team they defeated by 25 or more this season, with last game against the Magic being one of those wins, while Orlando is 5-3-1 as a favorite with revenge. I have Orlando winning by four and by five.
New York at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -6 and the line has been bet up to 7.5 with Atlanta getting three quarters of the early wagers. The Knicks are 4-6 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back situation this year, but the Hawks are 0-3 as a favorite and this is the largest favorite they’ve been since the 2016-17 season. I have this one pretty close and despite the Knicks in a poor situation regarding teams in back-to-back situations, will take New York as an anti-public play.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans: The Thunder opened -4 and the line has inched up to -5 with Oklahoma City getting more than 85% of the early wagers in the game. The last four meetings between these two teams have been decided by six or fewer points, but the Pelicans aren’t playing very good basketball right now and home underdogs who lost their last game as a home favorite by 30 or more points are 3-3 ATS over the past 20 years, so another situation that doesn’t pop up all that often. But if we look at home dogs who lost by 20 or more as a home favorite, we’d see a 25-17-2 (59.5%) mark. I have the Thunder winning by six and also have it even.
END OF FEB. 14 PICKS
A few interesting betting patterns taking place in a few of the games tonight, so we’ll get right to it.
Brooklyn at Cleveland: The Nets opened -6.5 and the line is holding steady even though Brooklyn has been getting more than 75% of the early wagers. I have the Nets winning by eight and by four, so a tough game to pull the trigger on.
Milwaukee at Indiana: The Bucks opened -5.5 and the line is down to 3.5 even though Milwaukee has been getting more than 80% of the early wagers. I have each team winning this one by four, so a game that could go either way, and will go ahead and grab the Pacers plus the points in this one.
Detroit at Boston: The Celtics are -5, which is right where this one opened and I have Boston winning by 7 and by 8, although that doesn’t factor in Irving.
Washington at Toronto: The Raptors moved from -11 to -11.5 with two-thirds of the wagers and I have Toronto winning by 19, based on Washington’s lack of defense.
Philadelphia at New York: The 76ers opened -10 and the line has dropped to 76ers -9 even though Philadelphia is getting more than three-quarters of the early wagers.
Memphis at Chicago: The Bulls opened -1 and the line has moved to Chicago -2.5 with the betting pretty well split on this one. I have Memphis pulling out a four-point win in this one, but no interest in taking a stand here.
Miami at Dallas: The Mavs are up to -2.5 after opening -2 and Dallas is getting 70% of the wagers. I have each team winning and covering in this one.
Sacramento at Denver: Denver opened -7 and the line has moved to Nuggets -8 with Denver getting 70% of the wagers in the game. I have Denver winning by 14 and by 15.
Houston at Minnesota: Houston opened -3 in a game that opened late and I have Minnesota winning by 1 and by three points in what should be a decent game. The Rockets are up to -3.5 and have gotten two-thirds of the wagers.
Golden State at Portland: Golden State opened -2.5 and the line is up to -3 with Golden State getting 55% of the wagers in the game. I have this one even and Portland winning by three.
Phoenix at Clippers: The Clippers moved from -8.5 to -9 after getting more than 60% of the wagers. I have the Clippers winning by double digits.
END OF FEB. 13 PICKS
It was more of the same in the NBA on Thursday, as the totals play went down the drain and the side play won, which is has happened frequently this season, but onto Friday and the remaining games just came out with official lines, so we’ll get right to it.
Denver at Philadelphia: The 76ers are favored by 4.5 and I have them winning by 7 and 10 points. The 76ers have been a better team coming off a loss and Denver is just 6-10 ATS after losing.
Cleveland at Washington: The Cavs are getting close to 60% of the wagers in this one, which is a bit of a surprise, and as a result, Washington has moved from -10.5 to -9.5. I have the Wizards winning by double digits, but a little hard to take Washington right now, as they are in a bit of disarray.
New York at Detroit: The Pistons opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line is holding steady despite the Pistons getting close to 80% of the early wagers. I have Detroit winning this one by 11 and 8, so pretty close to the number. The Pistons are 3-2 as a favorite of 8 or more points this season, which was a bit of a surprise, as I expected Detroit to be a better underdog than favorite.
Chicago at Brooklyn: The Nets opened as 7.5-point favorites and are now -9 after getting close to 75% of the early wagers in this one. I have the Nets winning by 7 and 9 points, so another game pretty close to the numbers. The Nets are 3-0-1 when favored by 8 or more.
Milwaukee at Dallas: The Bucks opened as 7-point favorites and the line has climbed to 7.5 with a few places already at Milwaukee -8, as the Bucks are getting more than three-quarters of the wagers. I have this one a bit closer and will go ahead and take Dallas as the largest home underdog they’ve been all season in this spot.
Golden State at Phoenix: The Warriors favored by 15 in a game they can probably name the final score, while I have them winning by 18 and 19. Golden State won by 23 here on New Year’s Eve as 10-point favorites.
Minnesota at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 6 and I have them winning by 4 and by 9. Want to see Davis play a game first before getting involved wit New Orleans.
Miami at Sacramento: The Kings opened at -3 and are still there, with the line dropping to 2.5 for a bit. I have each team winning by two points with my numbers.
END OF FEB. 8 PICKS
We split the two NBA trend plays Wednesday, losing the Bucks total in ugly fashion, but sneaking in there with Dallas by a half point. A win is a win, regardless if it’s by a half-point or 50 points, while the same holds true for losses and the Bucks game is no different than the college total we lost by a half-point, so onto Thursday.
Minnesota at Orlando: The Wolves opened as 1-point favorites and now the Magic are favored by 2 with 55% of the wagers, so a bigger move than the wagers suggest. I have Minnesota by one and a tie, so nothing happening in this one.
Clippers at Indiana: The Pacers opened -4 and the line has jumped up to -6 with Indiana getting more than 80% of the early wagers in this one, as bettors have apparently forgiven Indiana for their recent slide, as they’ve put together a couple of decent games in a row. I have Indiana by three and by six.
Toronto at Atlanta: The Raptors opened -10 and are now favored by 9 despite getting more than 70% of the early wagers in this one. I’m all over the place with this one, as the power ratings have Toronto by 16, while the stats indicate a closer game and are calling for a 7-point Toronto victory.
Memphis at Oklahoma City: The Grizzlies become the latest team to rest a player with a tough road game, as Gasol will sit out for the Grizzlies, so the Thunder are favored by 14 and are getting 75% of the wagers. With Gasol, I had the Thunder winning by 8 and 9, while Memphis also has a few other players who are listed as questionable.
Lakers at Boston: This was the game in the NBA in the past, but now it’s a game where the Celtics are favored by 9 after opening as 7.5-point favorites and getting more than 70% of the wagers. I have the Celtics winning by nine, so will sit this one out.
San Antonio at Portland: The Blazers opened as 4-point favorites and are now favored by 5.5 after getting 63% of the wagers in this one. I have Portland winning by double-digits with both projections, so will take the Blazers and lay the points in this spot.
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A couple of decent games on the NBA slate, where halftime lines haven’t been posted on most games, so will go ahead and jump to the side plays.
Denver at Brooklyn: The Nuggets opened as 2-point favorites and the line is holding pretty steady, while I have the Nets coming away with two and three point wins. A few players listed as questionable on each team, so just going to stay away from this one, which is a revenge game for the Nuggets and that’s enough to keep me off the Nets.
New Orleans at Chicago: The Bulls are favored by 1 and I have the Pelicans winning, but want no part of this game, as Davis could be dealt today and the Bulls could find themselves making a move, as well.
Washington at Milwaukee: The Bucks opened as 12-point favorites and the line has dipped slightly to 11.5 with the Bucks getting three-quarters of the early wagers in the game. I have Milwaukee winning by 20, but no real interest to jump into this one.
Charlotte at Dallas: The Mavs opened -4.5 and the line has climbed to 5.5 with Dallas getting close to 75% of the wagers in the game. I have Dallas winning by six and by eight, and am going to go ahead and take Dallas in this spot. Dallas defeated Charlotte 122-84 in Charlotte last month, so you’d think it was a big revenge game for the Hornets, but road teams who lost to today’s opponent by at least 25 points at home the last meeting are just 2-14 against the spread this year and 1-13 ATS as an underdog.
Phoenix at Utah: The Jazz opened as 15-point favorites and the line has dropped to 14.5 with Utah getting close to 55% of the wagers in the game. Utah does have a bigger game with San Antonio on tap, can cover based on talent alone, so will just stay away from this one.
Houston at Sacramento: Decent game here, where the Rockets have moved from -2 to -2.5 with more than 70% of the wagers. I have the Kings winning by a couple of points and lean that way, but will likely just stay clear of this one.
San Antonio at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 15, with the Spurs sitting a couple of players, and Golden State was 11.5 earlier this morning before San Antonio announced their decision. Just going to stay clear of this one in a game I had given thought to the Spurs at full strength.
END OF FEB. 6 PICKS
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