Last Updated: 2018-12-15
Somewhat of a small slate in the NBA today, with the Jazz and Magic doing battle in Mexico City.
Utah vs. Orlando: As I stated in the totals article, this is a game I’m just going to stay away from due to all of the different variables that are a bit up in the air. Shooting can be tougher when teams are at an unfamiliar arena and the officials may call the game a bit differently than they would a typical game.
Lakers at Charlotte: The Lakers opened even and are now favored by 2 points and getting a little more than 70% of the wagers so far. I have Charlotte winning this one, but a bit of a tough game to get a handle on, so just going to stay clear.
Boston at Detroit: The Celtics opened as 2.5-point favorites and the line is still holding there even with Boston getting a little more than 70% of the wagers in this one. I have Detroit winning, but another game I’m not real anxious to get involved with.
Houston at Memphis: The Rockets opened as 3-point favorites and the line has inched up to 3.5 with pretty good two-way action coming in on this one. I have Memphis winning, but another game I’m in no hurry to get involved in.
Chicago at San Antonio: The Spurs opened as 13-point favorites and have gotten 62% of the wagers in the game, yet the line has dropped to 11.5. This is the second straight game Chicago has received some wiseguy play. The Bulls failed to cover last time out in a bit of a bad beat, failing to cover by a half-point and I’ll give them a shot in this one and take Chicago plus the points here.
Minnesota at Phoenix: The Timberwolves opened as 10-point favorites, which was simply a little too high for a team that’s not exactly dominant on the road. Minnesota has gotten roughly 57% of the wagers in this one and the line has dropped to 8, which is probably where the opening number should have been. I have this one a two-point game, but a little leery of Phoenix even though they got the job done for us a few nights ago. But their success against Dallas was one reason we were on them then.
Clippers at Oklahoma City: The Thunder opened as 6-point favorites and the line has held steady with 58% of the wagers coming in on the home team. I have the Thunder winning by four.
END OF DEC. 15 PICKS
Nine games in the NBA tonight, with a few above-average games, but that’s about it.
Atlanta at Boston: Once again the Hawks are getting a little respect from bettors, as the Celtics opened -13.5 and the line is now 12.5 even with Boston getting 75% of the wagers in the game. I have the Celtics winning by 14 and will just stay away.
New York at Charlotte: The Hornets opened 10.5 and the line is holding steady with the Knicks getting 57% of the early wagers. I have Charlotte winning by 15.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: These two meet again and the Bucks opened 10.5 and the line is holding there with Milwaukee getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have the Bucks winning this one by 10.
Indiana at Philadelphia: This one opened late the 76ers have moved from -5 to -4.5 and getting the majority of wagers, but it’s still early in the betting. The line did drop down to 4 and has since inched back up slightly.
Washington at Brooklyn: This one opened even and the Nets are now favored by after getting more than 60% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Nets winning this one handily, and will go ahead and take Brooklyn in this one.
Miami at Memphis: This could be a decent game, as the Heat visit the Grizzlies and Memphis is favored by 4.5 after opening at 5 and seeing Miami attract more than 60% of the early wagers. I have the Grizzlies winning by three.
Toronto at Portland: Another one that could be a decent game, the Raptors have moved from -3 to -4 with 60% of the wagers in the game. I have Toronto winning by four and will just stay clear of this one.
Golden State at Sacramento: The Warriors opened 8.5 and the line has moved to 7.5 even with golden State getting the majority of the wagers in this one. I have Golden State winning by seven.
Oklahoma City at Denver: The Thunder are favored by 1.5 after opening -1 and seeing the Nuggets getting 58% of the wagers in the game. The Thunder are 7-3 when playing with revenge, although the Nuggets have held on their own and a little more against OKC. Really wanted to take the Nuggets in this one, but not real thrilled with the line move even if it’s pretty small.
END OF DEC. 14 PICKS
Another small slate of games for Thursday, as the NBA seems to have been alternating between full slates and light schedules. Would be a little nicer to have seven or eight games a day, but the NBA didn’t check with anybody from the gambling community before setting the schedule.
We moved to 6-5 ATS on the season Wednesday, which isn’t anything to get excited about, but will gladly take it after stumbling out of the gate with an 0-4 record. But as has been the case, the totals play fell by the wayside, as those have been a bit of a struggle in the early going of the season.
Lakers at Houston: The Rockets opened as 5.5-point favorites in this one and the line hasn’t moved despite the Lakers attracting nearly 75% of the wagers. I have the Lakers winning this one outright, but the numbber of bets coming in on Los Angeles is going to keep me off the Lakers. Los Angeles is 3-3 as an underdog and the Rockets went into Los Angeles in October and came away with a 124-115 victory and the Lakers are 5-7 avenging an earlier loss. Michael Beasley will miss the game for the Lakers.
LA Clippers at San Antonio: The Lakers aren’t the only LA team in Texas tonight, as the Clippers make the trip to face the Spurs in what should be a decent game. The Spurs opened as 2-point favorites and the line has climbed to San Antonio -3 after the Spurs received 75% of the early wagers in the game. I have the Clippers winning, but unlike the Lakers, San Antonio has been tough when avenging an earlier loss, posting a 10-1 spread record and the Clippers are 5-8 as an underdog, which will keep me away.
Chicago at Orlando: Strange game, as the Magic opened as just 4-point favorites. Predictably, more than 85% of the wagers have come in on Orlando and pushed the number to 5, but no higher. I have Orlando winning by seven, but this one is a bit puzzling and I’ll stay clear.
Dallas at Phoenix: The Mavs opened as 7.5-point favorites and have gotten nearly two-thirds of the wagers and the line is now Dallas -7. The Suns picked up one of their four victories on the season against the Mavs on Oct. 17, so this might be a spot to look at Dallas, but the Suns have owned the Mavs lately. Phoenix won all three games last year and three of four in 2016 to go along with their opening win, so will go against the grain here and take a shot on Phoenix +7.
END OF DEC. 13 PICKS
Will try to keep things going the right direction with our NBA side plays. Even though there’s a large slate of games, a bit of a tough card, really.
Brooklyn at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened as 8.5-point favorites and the line has dropped to 7 with Philadelphia getting a little more than 70% of the wagers. I have the 76ers winning by 8.
Boston at Washington: The Celtics opened as 4-point favorites and the line is still there with Boston attracting three-quarters of the early wagers. I have Boston by 10, although that doesn’t factor in the players who are still listed as questionable for the Celtics.
New York at Cleveland: The Knicks opened 1.5 and the line is holding steady with New york getting close to 65% of the wagers. I have Cleveland winning by 4, but away favorites who have lost at least four in a row are 111-78-6 (58.7%) ATS over the years.
Detroit at Charlotte: Charlotte opened as 5-point favorites and the line is up to 5.5 with the Hornets getting 56% of the wagers. I have Charlotte winning by 7.
Milwaukee at Indiana: Good game here, with the Bucks settling in as 2.5-point favorites and getting two-thirds of the wagers. I have Milwaukee winning by 1.
Portland at Memphis: The Grizzlies opened -3 and the line has dropped to 2.5 at a few places with Memphis getting 60% of the early wagers. I have Memphis winning by 6.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans: The Pelicans opened -1 and now the Thunder are -1.5 with two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have New Orleans winning by 1.
Atlanta at Dallas: The Mavs opened -10 and the line has dropped to 9 with Dallas getting more than 80% of the wagers. I’ll stay away due to the line move, as I have Dallas winning easily.
Miami at Utah: The Jazz opened 5.5-point favorites and the line just moved to Utah -7. The Heat are in a negative spread situation regarding teams who have covered their last three games on the road, so will stay away even though I have Miami covering.
Minnesota at Sacramento: The Timberwolves are up to 3-point favorites after opening -2 and seeing the Kings get the majority of the wagers in the game.
Toronto at Golden State: The Warriors opened -6.5 and the line is still there with Golden State getting 55% of the early plays. I have this one 115-113 so will take the Raptors in this one, as the last three games between these two have been decided by 5 or fewer points.
END OF DEC. 12 PICKS
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