Last Updated: 2019-11-20
We’ve split our first two side plays this season and now have the majority of teams in action, highlighted by the game between Houston and Denver.
New York at Philadelphia: The 76ers opened as 12.5-point favorites and the line on this one has dropped down to 12 with Philadelphia getting 58% of the wagers. I have the 76ers winning by 24, although that has more to do with a couple of ugly road losses by the Knicks.
San Antonio at Washington: The Spurs opened as 3-point favorites and the line is now down to 2.5 even though San Antonio has received two-thirds of the early wagers. I have the Wizards winning by two.
Cleveland at Miami: The Heat opened as 10-point favorites and the line has held steady even though Miami is getting more than three-quarters of the early wagers. I have Miami winning this one by 18.
Milwaukee at Atlanta: Milwaukee opened as 10-point favorites and the line climbed to Bucks -11 with the Bucks getting more than 70% of the early wagers in this one. I have the Bucks winning this one by 17.
Golden State at Dallas: The line here opened Dallas -13.5 and has jumped slightly to Mavs -14 even though the Warriors are getting close to two-thirds of the wagers in the game. I have Dallas winning by just three.
Charlotte at Brooklyn: The Nets opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has dropped down to Brooklyn -4 with the betting being pretty much split down the middle. I have the Nets winning by six.
Orlando at Toronto: The Magic are getting a lot of play in this one, which opened Raptors -4.5 and the line is now Toronto -3 even though the home team is getting nearly 80% of the wagers. I have Toronto winning by 16, but will just stay clear.
Detroit at Chicago: The Bulls opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line is now Chicago -1 with the Pistons getting the majority of wagers. I have Detroit winning by two.
Utah at Minnesota: The Jazz opened as 4-point favorites and the line is now 3.5, while I have Minnesota winning by one, and will go ahead and take a shot on the Timberwolves +3.5 in this one.
Houston at Denver: The Nuggets opened -2 and the line is now Denver -1 after Houston has received 70% of the wagers. I have the Rockets winning by six.
Boston at Clippers: The Clippers opened as 6-point favorites and the line is still there, while I have Los Angeles winning by eight.
END NOV. 20 PICKS
A split on the hardwood Sunday as we made our NBA debut, winning with the side and dropping the total. We have nine games on the slate for Monday, with a couple of decent games and a couple of stinkers. We’ll just look at a few games on today’s schedule.
Cleveland at New York: This is certainly one of the stinkers, as the Cavs visit the Knicks. The Knicks are favored by 3 in this one, which is just the third time the team has been favored this season. The Knicks dropped both of those games. I have the Cavs winning this one, so will go ahead and take Cleveland +3 for today’s play.
Milwaukee at Chicago: The Bucks are getting hit pretty hard this morning, moving from -6 to Milwaukee -8 after getting 80% of the wagers in the game. So far this year, away favorites of 8 or more points are just 2-2 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread. That’s a huge difference from last year, when large away favorites were money, going 55-29-2 (65.5%). The Bucks are 3-4 as an away favorite, while the Bulls are 0-3 straight-up and 1-2 as a home dog this year.
Portland at Houston: The Blazers are struggling so far this season and are a better team than they’ve shown so far, but the Rockets moved from -6.5 to -7.5 after getting a little more than 70% of the early wagers in the game. The Rockets do have a trip to Denver on tap, although Portland’s success last year could have Houston’s attention even if they are stumbling a bit out of the gate.
San Antonio at Dallas: The Mavs are favored by 4.5, which is where it opened and Dallas is getting 60% of the wagers. San Antonio is just 3-10-1 ATS in the early going of the season, while the Mavs have gone 5-7 against the number.
Boston at Phoenix: The Suns opened 3.5 and are still there, while a few places have moved the Suns to 4-point favorites even though 60% of the wagers are coming in on the Celtics. Boston looks as though it would be the correct side here, but you have to respect the slight move in this one and is one I’d definitely stay away from.
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers: The Clippers opened -8.5 and the number has moved to 10 with more than half the wagers coming in on the Clips, but not by as large a margin as you might expect. LA scored 150 points last time out and teams who scored 40 or more are 31-41-4 next time out.
END OF NOV. 18 PICKS
I’ll be the first to admit we’re probably jumping the gun a little bit here, as we usually wait until each team has a few more games under their belts before diving into the NBA, but it’s as good of a time as any, I suppose, although the numbers should get a little stronger as the season goes, since we only have a few games to draw numbers from.
Philadelphia at Cleveland: The 76ers opened as 7-point favorites and the line has held steady with decent two-way action coming in. The Cavs are getting the slightest of majorities of the bets with 52%. I have Philadelphia winning by one.
Boston at Sacramento: The Celtics opened as 4-point favorites and the the line dropped to 2.5 and is now back up to Boston -3 even though the Celtics are getting three-quarters of the wagers in this one. The Kings have won their last two at home after dropping their first three, while the Celtics are 5-1 away from home this season. I have Boston winning by 13, but have to respect the line move in this one.
Denver at Memphis: The Nuggets opened as 7-point favorites and the line is now 6.5 with the Grizzlies getting 53% of the early wagers, so nothing out of the ordinary in live movement. I have Denver winning by four.
Washington at Orlando: The Magic opened as 7.5-point favorites and the line is now down to 6.5 as the Wizards have received a slight majority of the wagers. I have Orlando winning this one by 3, as Washington has two of their three wins away from home this season and are 5-1 ATS on the road, so will take a stab on Washington +6.5 in this one.
Golden State at New Orleans: The Pelicans are favored by 4.5 and this game is more about who isn’t playing than who is, as both teams are missing players and both have players listed as questionable. I have the Pelicans winning by 8, although Golden State did win here last month, but probably a game just to stay away from due to the injury list.
Atlanta at LA Lakers: The Lakers are favored by 13.5 after opening as 14-point favorites and I have Los Angeles winning this one by 17. The Hawks are being outscored by 11.5 on the road and things don’t expect to be easy against a Los Angeles team that is outscoring teams by 13 points at home and is 5-2 against the spread. The Hawks allowed 150 points last game, but teams in that situation have been a 50-50 proposition.
END OF NOV. 17 PICKS
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