Last Updated: 2019-04-19
The usual three game-slate for the NBA tonight, with a couple of home teams finding themselves down 2-0 and just the Magic and Raptors tied.
Toronto at Orlando: The Raptors have been getting bet hard and heavy ever since this line came out at Toronto -4 and has just hit 6 at a couple of shops and I can’t resist, so going to go ahead and grab the Magic in this one. More than 80% of the wagers have been on Toronto and Orlando is more than capable of giving Toronto a tough game, as they did in the opener. The Raptors bounced back nicely with their Game 2 victory, but teams are seldom as good as they look in a blowout win, nor are they as bad as they look in a blowout loss. Orlando has been a pretty good team rebounding after an ugly game and think they might keep it close here, as the line could very well come into play.
Boston at Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 3, but that might be asking a bit much from a team who hasn’t really played a complete game yet. Part of that is due to bench depth, which is going to happen when you lose of your better players for an extended period of time, while the Celtics have also made the necessary adjustments at halftime.
Despite losing to the Celtics at home the last time the teams met in Indiana, the Pacers have been a pretty decent home team throughout the season and only lost 12 times at home, while the Celtics were pretty much a .500 team on the road, going 21-20. I’ll end up staying away from this one even though my numbers have the Pacers covering.
Portland at Oklahoma City: The Thunder are favored by 7.5 after getting 50% of the wagers and opening as 7-point favorites. This is a tough one to get a good handle on, as I don’t think the Thunder are the better team here, but if there was a game Oklahoma City was going to rally for, it would be this one after a pair of disappointments in the Rose City. Oklahoma City does have a couple of trends that point in their direction, which makes it a bit harder, especially since I have this one as a 2-point game. Another one I’ll just stay away from.
END OF APRIL 19 PICKS
Another three-game schedule in the NBA for Thursday, where we’ll look to bounce back after an ugly 1-2 night on the hardwood Wednesday, as I expected a little more out of the Utah Jazz.
Philadelphia at Brooklyn: Some people had written the 76ers off after their Game 1 loss, but a win in Game 2 has everything forgiven and bettors are backing the 76ers in this one. Philadelphia opened as 2.5-point favorites and have been bet up to 3-point favorites after getting 62% of the early wagers in the game.
The 76ers became just the second team since 2003 to score 140 points in a playoff game and the other two teams both lost by double digits, but the Nets in a negative situation themselves regarding teams who win on the road, lose on the road and are a home underdog, so it’s basically a wash in the trend department. The 76ers did everything right in Game 2 and had a 21-rebound advantage, while hitting 56.1% of their field goals. I have this one coming down to the wire and will take a shot on the Nets +3 in this spot.
Denver at San Antonio: The Spurs opened as 2-point favorites and are now favored by 3.5 and a few 4s are starting to pop up, which isn’t surprising considering 75% of the early wagers in this one have come in on San Antonio. Basically, the first two games went about as expected, with whichever team shooting the best taking the win. The Spurs have taken just 16.5 3-pointers per game through the first two, while Denver is also down on the number they’ve attempted so far.
The teams have played some pretty close game throughout the season and I have the Spurs winning by five, so no real interest in taking a side.
Golden State at Clippers: The Warriors opened as 7-point favorites and are already up to 8.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers, so not a surprise if this one climbs to nine. The Warriors have gone 18-9 ATS after losing their previous playoff game, so the move is probably justified, although I’m not a big fan of taking away favorites this large, especially public ones, but as yesterday showed, it doesn’t always pan out.
I have the Warriors winning this one by six, so not a whole lot of room for error and with Golden State’s record in playoff revenge games is probably one I’ll just stay away from.
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