It doesn’t get any better than a Game 7 in the World Series, which will have even non-baseball fans tuning in tonight in a series that has seen the visiting team win each of the first six games. The Nationals will give the ball to Max Scherzer, who was scratched a couple of days ago, but a cortisone shot and a couple of days later he’ll be pitching in the biggest game baseball can offer.
He’ll be opposed by Zack Greinke, who is somewhat the forgotten man in the Astros rotation, which is a bit understandable with Justin Verlander and this year’s version of Gerrit Cole on the team. Greinke and the Astros opened -135 and the line is now -133 with the Nationals getting close to two-thirds of the early wagers.
The total opened 7.5-under (-120) and hasn’t moved despite more than three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. The roof has been closed every postseason game and expect more of the same tonight, especially with a 45% chance of light rain and temperatures will be in the upper 50s. The roof will counter the wind, which is expected to be blowing in around 14 mph.
The Nationals averaged 5.35 runs per game on the road against right-hand starters this season and 6.08 runs on the road against American League teams, although that includes the 24 runs they’ve scored in three games at Houston so far. But they did score 18 runs in three games at Minnesota in September, so they’re definitely hitting better now than they started, which was a bit on the slow side.
The Astros average 5.98 runs at home against right-handed starters, but have just 15 runs in their last five games in that situation, so it’s not the ideal time to hit a mini-slump. The Astros have also lost four of their last five at home against RHP.
The Nationals allow 3.57 runs with Scherzer on the road and he did pitch the team to a 5-4 victory in Houston back on Game 2 when the Nats defeated Cole. His health is obviously a bit of a concern here and both starters will have a short leash, with pretty much everybody available except for Strasburg and Verlander.
Greinke came over midseason and Houston was 9-4 in the games he’s started for them, but just 3-2 with him on the mound at home and they’ve allowed an average of 6 runs per game. The fewest number of runs they’ve allowed was 4.0 and that happened twice, while the Astros allowed 6, 7 and 9 in the other 3.
I made Houston -109 with a total of 8.5 and would typically stay away, but it’s Game 7 of the world Series, so will go ahead and take a stab on the over at even money even though totals have been pretty ugly this year compared to sides.
Season: 34-40-3 -10.85
END OF OCT. 30 PICKS
A bit of a wind is expected to be blowing out in St. Louis today, while it looks like more of a cross wind in Houston, so hard to tell how much of an effect the conditions will have on the games.
New York at Houston: The total on this one has moved from 8.5 to 9-under with close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over and some of that likely has to do with Greinke’s poor performance in the playoffs, as well as the fact that both teams are known for the offense, while in the case of the Astros, the pitching staff is what makes the team go.
Tanaka wasn’t very impressive away from home this season, so a bit surprised he’s getting the call here, but have to believe the Yankees wanted to save Paxton for Verlander, believing they’d have a better shot of winning that one than they would with Tanaka. So not only do the Yankees believe they’ll be able to score some runs against Greinke, they also seem to think that Tanaka will give up a few.
If you look at this game using median numbers, which tend to yield lower-scoring predictions, I’d have the Astros winning 5.18 to 4.46, while straight averages are calling for 10.7 runs to be scored in this one, so will go ahead and follow the numbers and take the over 9 at -105 here.
Washington at St. Louis: Really liked the under in this one as well, but a little hesitant to pull the trigger with the wind blowing out. Most of the forecasts are calling for winds to be in the 10 to 12 mph range, which is one reason this one has moved from 7-over to 7.5-under. I ran the two different of numbers that I’ve been using in the playoffs, straight averages as well as medians, and straight averages are calling for a 3.56 to 2.92 finals, which means a projection of 7 runs, since if each team scores three runs, one of them is going to have to get 4. Using medians, however, just calls for 5.31 runs. But with home teams who were blanked at home in the playoffs their previous game an impressive 10-3 in totals, will just stay clear of this one.
Season: 34-39-3 -9.80
END OF OCT. 12 PICKS
Bizarre game last night, as our under looked dead in the water after the first 1.5 innings and then six scoreless innings later looked pretty good, only to see the Rays allow a pair of solo homers in the eighth inning to leave us with a push.
We’re down to the final two teams in the Nationals, with the Washington Nationals sending Anibal Sanchez to the mound where he’ll be opposed by St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas. I have the Cardinals -119 and with the line Cardinals -122 there wasn’t anything there, so jumping to the total, which have actually done better than the sides in the playoffs.
The total opened 8.5-under and is now 8-under (-115) even with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. Part of that likely has to do with the Cardinals’ 10-run inning against the Braves, but teams who scored 10 or more runs in the playoffs are just 29-35-4 in totals their next game and 10-15 if they scored 12 or more. If we look at games where one team scored 10 or more runs and the opposition scored at least 6 runs, the record is 8-15-1 next time they take the field and if the opposition scored at least seven runs, the record dips to 3-12-1, so the trends definitely favor the under here.
Looking at the game from a numbers standpoint, I’d have the Cardinals winning 3.93 to 3.70 for a total of 7.63, but with each team expected to score 4 runs, I’d round it up to 8.5 and would stay away from this one during the regular season. But since there’s only the one game, I went through and tracked median runs, as opposed to average and both teams had a median of 4.0 runs, although they each averaged more. The Nats averaged 5.32 runs on the road against RHP, while St. Louis averaged 4.47 runs at home against right-handed starters, so you can tell Washington had a few big offensive outputs against RHP on the road, while St. Louis was a little more consistent.
If we look at the medians, I’d now have the Cardinals winning 3.32 to 2.95 and with both teams now projected to get 3 runs, I’d have a predicted total of 7, so will go ahead and follow suit and take the under 8 in this one.
Season: 33-39-3 -10.80
END OF OCT. 11 PICKS
The total on today’s Tampa Bay at Houston game opened at 7-over (-120) and two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over, yet the number has shifted in the other direction, and is now sitting at 7-under (-115).
Tyler Glasnow started Game 1 and allowed two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on a home run to Altuve. The usually reliable Tampa Bay Bullpen allowed four more runs in 3 2/3 innings, although two of them came as a result of a dropped pop-up and the others came on back-to-back two-out doubles in the bottom of the seventh.
Glasnow missed much of the season and had just 14 starts, but was typically pretty solid after the Rays allowed three or more runs with him on the mound, allowing 4 runs in the three games – not including the game he was injured in May and returned in September.
The Rays were held in check until scoring a pair of runs in the eight inning in Houston’s 6-2 victory.
Gerrit Cole pitched 7 2/3 scores innings the next day in Houston’s 3-1 win, fanning 15 batters, but also throwing 118 pitches, which you don’t really like to see, but the Astros know him better than anybody else. Cole turned it on down the stretch, allowing two runs or less in six of his final seven starts, with the lone exception being an 8-5 victory over the Angeles in Los Angeles.
The number is a bit tough here, especially with the line movement, but have to believe the under is the way to go in this one. The Rays will have nearly everybody ready to go in this one and Tampa Bay does enough of the pitching by committee that its pitchers should be ready to come in at any time. While they labored a bit in Game 1, part of that was likely due to the score, as it’s a little tough to be at your best when you’re down 4-0 and know the defense let you down.
Obviously not thrilled with having to the -115 with the under, but don’t see that many runs being scored today and at least one of the two starters will have a strong outing.
Season: 33-39-2 -10.80
END OF OCT. 10 PICKS
The two National League series will be decided today, with the Yankees waiting in the wings for the winner of Thursday’s game between the Rays and the Astros, so we’ll get right to it.
St. Louis at Atlanta: It’s going to be in the upper 70s in Atlanta with a slight wind blowing from left to right, so the weather shouldn’t really have an impact. Jack Flaherty gets the call for St. Louis and he pitched well last time in a 3-0 loss earlier this season. He’ll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz who overcame some early season struggles and a trip to the DL list to finish strong.
The Cardinals are averaging 4.23 runs on the road against right-handed starters, while the Braves averaged 5.34 against RHP at home. The Cardinals were 6-10-1 in totals with Flaherty on the mound, as he didn’t allow many runs, but the Cardinals scored even fewer in support of him.
Foltynewicz is a tough read, as his numbers aren’t really indicative of how he pitched down the stretch, especially at home. For the season the Braves allowed 5.09 runs with Foltynewicz on the mound at home, but just 1.83 runs in his six home starts from June onward.
The total here opened at 8 and is now 7.5over with 70% of the wagers on the under, while I also have it at 7.5, so will just stay away.
Washington at Los Angeles: A couple of hard-throwing right-handers in Strasburg and Buehler take the mound for this one, where there’s the slightest of breezes blowing out, so the total here opened at 7-over (-120) and is now 7-over (-115) with 51% of the wagers on the under, so a pretty decent job with the total here. Both pitchers threw well here earlier this series, but it’s not always as easy to repeat at times, especially when you have both teams capable of putting runs up in a hurry. The Nationals averaged 5.29 runs on the road against RHP, while Los Angeles averaged 5.79 at home against right-handers, so either team is capable of doing some damage.
Washington allowed 4.47 runs with Strasburg on the hill away from home, although they did allow 18 in one game to Arizona, so his average is a little distorted there, but they did allow 4 or more runs in 13 of his 19 road starts and 5 or more runs in 8 of 19 starts.
The Dodgers allowed 3.4 runs with Buehler on the hill at home, so I have this one and 8.5 and will go ahead and take the over 7 at (-115).
Season: 32-39-2 -11.80
END OF OCT. 9 PICKS
We managed to get the win with the Cardinals going under the total, but those were three costly runs in the ninth inning from a sides standpoint. The Dodgers easily went over the total, but it became a no play due to the pitching change by Washington.
Atlanta at St. Louis: The Braves aren’t making any friends with bettors this morning, holding off on naming a starter even though the game is an early start. With no line out there, we’ll skip ahead to the next game.
Los Angeles at Washington: Scherzer was scratched yesterday and gets the nod here for Washington, where he’ll be opposed by Rich Hill, who doesn’t get the attention of the other starter on the staff, but he’s just as effective as any of them and the Dodgers were 10-3 in his starts, allowing 3.46 runs per game. That’s not too far off the 3.31 runs the team allows with Clayton Kershaw on the mound or the 3.43 runs per game they allow with Ryu on the mound. I have this one at 9.5, but the wind is more of a cross-wind than we saw yesterday, so will just sit this one even though the total has moved from 8.5-under to 8-over with a few more wagers coming in on the under.
Houston at Tampa Bay: Greinke and Morton get the starts in the early game today and the total is 7.5-over, which is where it opened and has seen 59% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have the total on this one at 7, so will stay from this one.
New York at Minnesota: Luis Severino has looked good in limited innings with the Yankees this season and not sure how long he’ll be able to go in this one, as New York is taking it easy with him and gradually getting him back into the fold. He should be able to go close to five innings provided he doesn’t get into too much trouble, as he could have a quick hook. Jake Odorizzi has pitched well at home this season and the Twins allow less than 3.5 runs when he starts at home. He has either been good or bad against New York the past couple of years. In his four starts against the Yanks, the Twins have allowed 1,3,10 and 14 runs. The total here opened 9-over and is still there with more than three-quarters of the wagers on the over, so will go against the grain and take a shot on the under at even money.
Season: 31-39-2 -12.80
END OF OCT. 7 PICKS
Terrible loss on the Astros under last time out as it was one of those proverbial ‘Murphy’s Law’ games, where basically everything that could have went wrong did so. But today is another day and we have the two National League games to look at.
Los Angeles at Washington: The total on this one opened at 8 and is now 8-over despite the fact that close to 65% of the wagers are coming in on the under. A little bit of that could be due to a light breeze blowing out, although it’s definitely nothing to get excited about, as the wind is expected to be in the 7 mph range, so it won’t make much difference unless a ball was hit to the warning track to begin with under normal conditions.
The Dodgers averaged 5.82 runs per game on the road against right-handed starters, and while Scherzer is definitely better than your average starter, his home numbers didn’t exactly show it, as Washington allowed 4.88 runs when he started at home, which is a shade over the league average.
The Nationals averaged 5.06 runs against LHP at pitchers at home and Ryu was much better than the average starter, but still the Dodgers allowed close to 4 runs when he started away from home and less than 3 runs when he started in Los Angeles. I have this one at 9.94 runs, so will take a shot on the over here, expecting both teams to break out a little bit offensively compared to what we’ve seen so far this series.
Atlanta at St. Louis: The total on this one opened at 8.5 and is now 8.5-under with 57% of the early wagers coming in on the over. The wind here is most likely going to be left-to-right at 6 to 7 mph, so shouldn’t really have an effect.
Soroka was pretty solid on the road this season and the Braves allowed 3.13 runs when he was on the mound away from home. He did have a couple of bad starts, but typically bounced back a little bit, so not too worried about his last road start, which was a 7-6 loss to the Mets.
Wainwright has one of the biggest home-away differences in the majors, as the Cardinals allowed 5.53 runs when he started on the road, but just 2.62 runs at home. St. Louis was 4-11-1 in totals with Wainwright on the mound at home and 9-6 when he started away from home.
I made the total on this one 7, so will go ahead and take the under in this one and look to see one or both starting pitchers bounce back a little bit after subpar outings last time on the mound.
Season: 30-39-2 -13.80
END OF OCT. 6 PICKS
Was going to let the totals go in the playoffs, as they stunk all season but did like one game today, so will give it a shot and hope to make up a few games by the time the World Series comes to a close.
St. Louis at Atlanta: The total on this one opened at 8 and is now 8.5-under after 65% of the early wagers have come in on the over. How much of that is a reflection of last night’s game is tough to tell, but I’m sure it’s playing a part. I’ve got this one at 7.5, but it’s tough to make a call on this one and will just stay away.
Washington at Dodgers: The total on this one opened at 7.5 and it’s holding steady with 55% of the wagers on the over. Strasburg wasn’t the greatest pitcher on the road this season, as the Nationals allowed 4.61 runs in his away starts, which is a little bit under the league average of 4.83 runs, but not as much as you’d expect from such a big-name pitcher. He did have one really poor outing at Arizona, where the Nats lost 18-7, so that’s taking a bit of a toll on his numbers. Washington did allow 4 or more runs in 13 of his 18 road starts and 5 or more in 8 of those games. The Dodgers allowed 3.25 runs with Kershaw on the mound at home and I have this one 8.
Minnesota at New York: The total on this one opened at 9 but has moved to 8.5-over with a little more than three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over, which is probably to be expected with two teams that can hit the long ball like these two. The biggest question will be if they is anybody on base when they do go deep, as they’ll likely hit a few out of the park. There is expected to be a strong cross-breeze blowing in this one, which I made 9.5.
Tampa Bay at Houston: The total on this one opened 7.5 and you now pretty much have your choice of betting 7-over or 7.5-under, as the game is pretty much split down the middle at sportsbooks. The Astros were 4-12-1 when Verlander pitched at home and the Rays were 1-5-1 with Glasnow on the road, allowing just 1.29 runs per game in his seven starts. I have this one at 6.5 so will take a shot on the under 7 at +105.
Season: 30-38-2 -12.80
END OF OCT. 4 PICKS
Mercifully, the final regular season day of the year, at least as it pertains to totals, and this upcoming week will begin a serious amount of research. But it’s frustrating to watch games like last night when a pitcher with an ERA over 9.00 mows down the opposition like he’s Roger Clemens.
Dodgers at San Francisco: The total here opened at 8.5-over and is still there, while I made it 7, but am unsure how long the starting pitchers are going to stay in the game. The Dodgers can rest a few regulars and not really lose much offense.
Miami at Philadelphia: This one moved from 9.5 to 9-over and I have it at 8, but would like to have seen a little more Parker. Alcantara has been one of the few bright spots for the Fish this season and if he had any type of run run support would probably be a 15-game winner.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The total on this one is 8.5 and I made it 9, with Mahle and Williams the starters.
Milwaukee at Colorado: The total here opened at 13.5 and is now 13.5-under, while I made it 15. Strange game here last night, as the wind was blowing out strong and we ended up with a 3-2 final. It’s more of the same weather forecast for today, but don’t think we see a pitcher’s duel and will go ahead and take the over at even money.
Atlanta at Mets: The total in this one is 8-flat after opening 8-over and seeing more than two-thirds of the wagers on the over. Soroka shouldn’t go long for the Braves, as there’s no point taking any chances with one of your top starters.
San Diego at Arizona: This one has moved from 9.5 to 9.5-over and who knows what to expect. Walker showed some promise a few years back, but hasn’t been able to put it together.
Cubs at St. Louis: The total here is 8.5 and who knows how long Holland will go for the Cubs, who now defeating the Cardinals when it doesn’t count, at least for Chicago. I have this one at 9.
Cleveland at Washington: The total in this one is 9 and not sure how far Ross will go, as he’s pitched well in a starting role this season.
Season: 30-37-2 -11.80
END OF SEPT 29 PICKS
A push last night and today we’re faced with quite a bit of wind, along with a chance of rain at a few of the parks.
Dodgers at San Francisco: The wind is going to be blowing out in this one pretty good, but the total has held pretty steady at 8.5. I made this one 9. The Dodgers allow a little more runs when Ryu is on the road, but the Giants have struggled to score at home at all season long.
Miami at Philadelphia: A light breeze blowing out in this one has the total has the total holding at 9, which is where it opened. I have this one at 7.5 and will take a shot on the under 9 with Eflin and Caleb Smith getting the starts.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Sims and Marvel take to the mound in a battle of young pitchers and neither one has been all that impressive, with Sims showing a little more consistency. The total here is 9-over and I have it at 11, so will take the over here for a second play today.
Atlanta at Mets: The total on this one opened at 8.5 and has shifted slightly to 8.5-under at several shops, while I made the total on this one 8.
Cubs at St. Louis: The total on this one is 8.5 and Wainwright has been solid at home. Hamels won’t pitch too deep into this one and the Cubs aren’t playing all of the regulars to the dismay of the Milwaukee Brewers. I made this one 7.5, but without knowing who the Cubs will use in relief it’s a bit of a pointless exercise to try and play this one.
San Diego at Arizona: The total here has climbed from 9 to 9.5-under with Ray and Richards the scheduled starters. A light breeze is expected to blow out in this one, so will just stay clear as I made the total here 8.
Milwaukee at Colorado: The total here opened 12 and has climbed to 13.5 as the wind is expected to be blowing out at a pretty decent clip. I also made this one 12, but will stay away due to the wind.
Cleveland at Washington: This one opened at 9-over and is still there, while I made it 8.5. The Tribe may rest some of their regulars today after being eliminated on Friday.
Season: 30-36-2 -10.60
END OF SEPT. 28 PICKS
Back with totals, as we try to end the season on a high note here, although totals have been a big disappointment so far.
Miami at Philadelphia: The total on this one came out at 9 and is now 9-over (-115) with close to 55% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 8.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 8.5 and we’re now seeing a couple of 8.5-over lines, as close to two-thirds of the wagers have been on the over so far. Hard to fault anybody going that way, as Brault has had his share of poor starts, but Sclafani has thrown pretty well on the road and I have this one at 8.5.
Atlanta at Mets: The total here opened at 8.5-under and is still there with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming on the over. I made the total here 8.
Milwaukee at Colorado: No total posted yet on this one and it looks as though the wind could be blowing in a little more than 10 mph. I have this one at 12.
Cubs at St. Louis: Another game where no line is posted and we’ll probably see Mills and Hudson getting the starts for their respective teams.
San Diego at Arizona: The total on this one is 9-over, which is what it came out and I have it at 10, so going to go ahead and take the over in this one. The Padres are coming off a 1-0 loss and those teams have turned around to go 19-10-1 in totals this season, and also go 22-8 in their next game. They are 3-1 if they were blanked at home and are now going on the road, while totals have gone 2-1-1 in that situation. Neither pitcher has exactly tore it up here and have to think the Padres find Taylor Clarke a little more hittable than Clayton Kershaw.
Dodgers at San Francisco: The total on this one is 7.5-over and the wind looks to be blowing out to center around 10-12 mph. Teams who won their last game 1-0 are 16-12-2 in totals, but just 10-20 straight-up, which is a bit of a surprise.
Cleveland at Washington: The total here opened at 10-under and is down to 9.5-over with more than 80% of the early wagers landing on the under. I made this one 10.5.
Season: 30-36-1 -10.60
END OF SEPT. 27 PICKS
Totals are getting downright embarrassing here, so thankfully the season is almost over in that regards. Morning weather reports were calling for 3 to 5 mph winds blowing out, but turned out to be 11 mph and you’re not going to win many unders when there’s 8 home runs hit.
St. Louis at Arizona: This total just hit 9.5-under after opening 9-over and seeing pretty good two-way action. I have this one a bit lower at 7, but one of the two pitchers is likely due for a subpar outing, as they’ve both been strong their last few starts.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati: The total here opened at 9-over and has stayed there with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 10.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh: This one opened at 9.5-under and just moved to 9-over even with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 9, so will take a shot on the under at even money.
Philadelphia at Washington: The total in this one opened at 10-over and has held pretty steady with good two-way action coming in on this one. The wind is expected to blow out a little bit, but just in the 5 to 7 mph range. I have the total here at 9.
Miami at Mets: This one opened at 7.5 and is now 7.5-under even though more than 70% of the wagers have been coming in on the over. There is a bit of a breeze blowing out towards left field, while I made the total on this one 8.
Colorado at San Francisco: Once again the wind is expected to be blowing out to center, at least for the start of the game, at 10 mph and then lessen to under 5 mph. But learned my lesson here last night, as did a few others, apparently, as the total has moved from 8.5 to 9. I have this one at 8.5.
Dodgers at San Diego: The total here is 9-under at the several sportsbooks that have the game posted, as the Dodgers clinched best record in the NL last night and there could be a few players rested for this one.
Atlanta at Kansas City: The total here is at 10, which is what the number came out when it was announced Tomlin would get the start in place of Soroka.
Season: 29-36-1 -11.60
END OF SEPT. 25 PICKS
Coming off a strange weekend, taking the collar on Saturday and sweeping on Sunday. Goes without saying the totals have been a disappointment this season, so not going to dwell on it, but keep plugging away a little bit and try to whittle down the deficit slightly the remained of the season.
Philadelphia at Washington: The first game on the schedule is showing Parker and Ross as the starters and the total on this one has moved from 10 to 10.5 with close to two-thirds of the wagers on the over. I also have this one at 10.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati: The total here opened at 8.5-under and is still there, although a few places have moved the game to 8-over. I made the total on this one 9.
Cubs at Pittsburgh: The total on this one moved from 9-over to 8.5-over even though the majority of the bets are coming in on the over. I have this one at 9.5.
Philadelphia at Washington: Nola and Scherzer are the listed starters for the late game and the total came out at 8 and has shifted slightly to 8-under (-115) with the betting being pretty well mixed. I made this 9.5, as Scherzer hasn’t been as strong at home as he has been on the road this season.
Miami at Mets: The total on this one came out at 8 and has held steady with more than three-quarters of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 8.5.
St. Louis at Arizona: The total here came out at 8.5-under and has stayed there with pretty decent two way action and I also have it at 8.5.
Colorado at San Francisco: The total here came out at 8-under and is now 8-over (-115) with more than 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 7 and will go ahead and take the under 8 at -105.
Dodgers at San Diego: The total here moved from 9-under to 9-over even though the betting has been pretty well mixed. I made this one 9.5.
Atlanta at Kansas City: The total on this one has climbed to 9.5 after opening at 9 and seeing a little more than three-quarters of the wagers come in on the over. I made the total on this one 10.
Season: 29-35-1 -10.55
END OF SEPT. 24 PICKS
Need a small run here on the totals, which have been a disappointment this season. Will do some research in the offseason on team totals, etc., but as of now leaning towards the separate NL and AL articles for next year, but getting ahead of ourselves a little.
St. Louis at Cubs: The total on this one is 12, which lets you know what the wind is doing. I made this one 9.5, but that’s not factoring in the weather. Surprisingly, the Cubs haven’t played too many games with the wind going out fairly strong, as this is just the third game all season with a total of at least 12 and the first two went under.
Mets at Cincinnati: The total here has shifted from 9.5 to 9.5-under with close to three-quarters of the early wagers coming in on the under. I made the total on this one 10.
Washington at Miami: The total here is 8-over and it could well be decided by the rain, as the wind will be blowing in pretty strong, which could make Strasburg extremely tough, but he’ll lose a bit of that edge if the roof gets closed. I made this one 9, due to Yamamoto struggling, but will just stay away.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: The total on this one is 9-over and hard to get a read on Marvel, who was roughed up by the Cubs his last start. I have this one at 10, but no interest in getting involved.
San Francisco at Atlanta: The total here is 8-over and much like the game above, hard to get a good read on Cueto and how long the Giants will let him go.
Arizona at San Diego: The total on this one is 8-over and I made it 9, although I’m not expecting Weaver to throw more than 35 pitches, as Arizona will keep him on a strict pitch count.
Colorado at Los Angeles: The total on this one is 8.5, with Bueheler getting the start for the Dodgers and Chi Chi going for the Rockies. Colorado did rough Buehler up a little bit last time they saw him at Dodgers Stadium and I made this one 9.
Philadelphia at Cleveland: Plesac and Vargas get the starts for their teams in this one and there is a slight breeze blowing out, which may be one reason why the total moved from 10 to 10.5. I have this one at 9 and will go ahead and take a shot on the under here.
Season: 29-34-1 -9.45
END OF SEPT. 21 PICKS
The usual Sunday of day games, with the Dodgers and the Mets getting moved to Sunday night.
Dodgers at Mets: The total on this one opened at 8-under and it’s still there with the over getting a slight majority of the wagers. I have this one at 7.5.
Atlanta at Washington: The total on this one opened at 10 and now it’s 10-under (-120) after 56% of the wagers came in on the under, although there are some 9.5-overs out there. I have this one at 10.5 and will go ahead and take the over 10 at even money, as Sanchez has been a better road pitcher this season, where the Nats allow 4.0 runs per game with him on the compared to compared to 6.23 when he starts at home. Atlanta is 10-4 in totals when Fried starts on the road.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: This one opened 9-over and is now 9-under (-115) with 55% of the wagers on the over. I made the total on this one 10.
Pittsburgh at Cubs: The total here opened at 11.5 and has shifted slightly to 11.5-over with the wind expected to blow out in the 12 to 15 mph range.
San Diego at Colorado: This one opened at 13 and has moved to 13.5-over with close to three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 13.5.
Miami at San Francisco: The total on this one opened at 8 and has held pretty steady with a good mixture of over and under wagers. The wind is expected to blow out close to 10 mph, but the Giants have struggled to score runs at home even though the wind blows out to center or to right a fair amount of the time.
Cincinnati at Arizona: The total on this one opened at 8.5 and has moved to 8 after 60% of the early wagers came in on the under. I also made this one 8, although the Reds are allowing an average of 6.88 runs in Bauer’s starts with a median number of 5.0.
Boston at Philadelphia: The total on this one opened at 10.5, which is a bit high for a National League home game not in Chicago or Colorado, and the total has stayed in that vicinity with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 10.
Season: 29-33-1 -8.45
END OF SEPT. 15 PICKS
Tough loss last time, with a 1-0 game after five innings turning into a 7-3 final on a game I took under 9.5, only to see it climb back to 10. But when things are going badly, those are the types of things that seem to happen more often than not.
Pittsburgh at Cubs: Doesn’t look to be a whole lot of wind here, so a little surprised the total is this high, as I expected about a 9.0 due to the Cubs allowing 3.0 runs per game when Hendricks throws at home.
Atlanta at Washington: The total here has climbed from 10 to 10.5 with more than 80% of the wagers also on the over. I made this one 10.5.
Dodgers at Mets: The total here opened at 7.5-over and is now 7.5-under after more than 60% of the early wagers have come in on the under. I made this one 9.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: The total on this one has moved from 7.5 to 7.5-over with more than 70% of the early wagers landing on the over. I made this one 9.
Cincinnati at Arizona: This one has moved from 9 to 9-under with 70% of the wagers on the under. I made this one 7.5.
San Diego at Colorado: The total here has moved from 12.5 to 13 with a little more than 60% of the wagers on the over, while I have it at 14.5 and am going to take the over in this one. The Padres allow 5.23 runs on the road with Lauer on the mound and the primary reason those numbers are so bad is due to his two previous starts in Coors Field, where San Diego has allowed 12 and 14 runs. Lambert has had a few decent starts sprinkled in there, but for the most part has been pretty bad, with the Rockies allowing more than 7 runs per start. The Padres are a better hitting team on the road than at home, so will hope to see some scoring in this one.
Miami at San Francisco: The total here has moved from 7.5-over to 8-over with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over, while I made this one 7.5.
Boston at Philadelphia: This one opened at 9-under and is still there with close to 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 10.
Season: 28-33-1 -9.45
END OF SEPT. 14 PICKS
It goes without saying that totals have stunk, going 28-32-1 heading into tonight, as we try to climb back to .500 before the season comes to a close.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: This one has moved from 10-under to 9.5-over with pretty good two-way action coming in on the total. I also have it at 9.5.
Milwaukee at Miami: The total here has moved from 8.5-over to 8-over with a little more than 60% of the wagers on the under. Part of it likely is due to the news on Yellich, while the under is also being bet pretty good. I made this one 7.5.
Arizona at Mets: The total on this one opened 8-over and is now 8.5-under with three-quarters of the wagers landing on the over. I also made this one 8.5.
St. Louis at Colorado: The total on this one came out at 13.5 and has shifted slightly to 13.5-under with more than 60% of the wagers on the under. Part of that may be a reaction to yesterday’s 2-1 game, although Hudson has pitched well for the Cardinals this season. The same can’t be said for Senzatela, however, as the Rockies are 11-9-1 in totals when he starts, allowing more than 6.6 runs per game and more than 7.5 at home.
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The total here opened at 9-under and has stayed there, although this one was posted a little late. I made the total on this one 8.
Cubs at San Diego: The total here opened at 8 and it has stayed there despite more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 9.
Dodgers at Baltimore: The total here has moved from 10 to 9.5 despite the betting being pretty well split, with the over bets holding a slight majority. I made this one 8, so will go ahead and take a shot on the under.
Washington at Minnesota: This is the second time in Stephen Strasburg’s career that he’s pitched to a total of 10 anywhere other than Colorado. The first was this year when Washington defeated Atlanta 13-4 and we’re looking at a 10-under here after the total opened 10-flat and has seen 70% of the wagers on the under. I also have this one at 10.
Cincinnati at Seattle: This one opened at 8-over and is still there with a little more than 60% of the wagers on the over. I made this one 8.5.
Season: 28-32-1 -8.35
END OF SEPT. 11 PICKS