MLB Totals Picks Expert Over Under The Total Predictions 8/22/2019

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-08-22

The traditional travel day for a number of teams, so we’ll look at the whole slate, where there’s a chance for rain at quite a few places tonight, along with some wind.

San Francisco at Chicago: As you can tell from the total of 7.5-under the wind is blowing in pretty good and is expected to be around 15 mph with gusts closer to 25 mph. I have this one at 10.5, but the wind pretty much takes care of that.

Washington at Pittsburgh: This one opened at 8.5 and is now 8.5-over (-115) with roughly two-thirds of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 9.

Miami at Atlanta: The total on this one opened at 9.5-under (-115) and is now 9.5-under (-120) with roughly two-thirds of the early wagers landing on the under. I made this one 8.5.

Colorado at St. Louis: This one has moved a little bit, opening at 8.5-under and dropping to 8-over (-115) with more than 70% of the early wagers on the under. I have this one at 7.5.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: The total here opened at 10-flat and has inched up slightly to 10-over (-115) with the over getting close to 60% of the early wagers.

Detroit at Houston: The total on this one has dropped from 9-under to 8 with 55% of the wagers coming in on the under. I also have this one at 8.

Texas at White Sox: The total on this one opened 10.5 and is now 10.5-over, with the wind blowing out to right field close to 15 mph. I have this one at 9 and had given thought to the under here until I saw the weather forecast.

New York at Oakland: This one opened at 9.5 and has stayed there for the most part, with the under -115 at some outlets. I made this one 9.

Cleveland at Mets: This one opened at 8.5-under and has stayed there with the majority of the wagers coming in on the under. I have this one at 9.

Toronto at Dodgers: The total on this one opened at 9 and has moved to 9.5-under with close to 70% of the wagers on the over. I have this one at 8, so will take shot on the under in this one.

Season: 23-25-1 -5.70

END OF AUG. 22 PICKS

Decent slate of games on tap for Wednesday, so we’ll get to it.

San Diego at Cincinnati: The total on this one opened at 8.5-over and has shifted slightly to 8.5-under with 55% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 9, but no interest in playing it, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong start from Castillo.

Colorado at Arizona: The total on this one opened at 9.5-under and has stayed there even with 70% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 9.5.

Washington at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 9-over and has finally climbed to 9.5 with a little more than 70% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 9.

Miami at Atlanta: The total in this one opened at 9.-over and has climbed to 9.5-flat with close to 70% of early wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 7.5, so will go ahead and take a stab on the under with Caleb Smith and Teheran the listed starters.

Milwaukee at St. Louis: This one opened 9-over and has dropped to 8.5-over even though close to two-thirds of the wagers have come in on the over. I have this one at 7.5.

San Francisco at Cubs: This one opened at 9-over and has held steady even though we’ve seen close to 60% of the early wagers come in on the under, which is a bit of a rarity. I have this one at 10.5.

Philadelphia at Boston: This one opened at 11.5-over and has made the jump to 12-under with roughly 57% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I made the total on this one 9.5.

Cleveland at Mets: This one opened at 9-flat and has since shifted slightly to 9-over (-115) with close to 60% of the wagers landing on the over. I also have this one at 9.

Toronto at Dodgers: This one opened at 8.5 and is now 8.5-over, while I made this one 8. The wind will be blowing in a little bit and is expected to be 8 to 9 mph, which could make hitting Buehler pretty tough. I have this one at 8 but no real interest in playing the game.

Season: 22-25-1 -6.70

END OF AUG. 21 PICKS

A smaller slate than normal, as is often the case on Monday, so we’ll look at the American League games, as well.

Washington at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 10-flat and it’s holding steady with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 10, as well.

San Diego at Cincinnati: The total here has moved from 9.5-under to 9-flat with pretty good two-way action on the total. I made this one 9.

Milwaukee at St. Louis: This one opened at 9.5-under (-115) and I holding steady with pretty decent two-way action. I made the total on this one 8, so will go ahead and take the under here.

Colorado at Arizona: This one opened late and came out at 10, while I have it at 8, but with Gonzalez having just a couple of starts is a tough one to play and will just sit this one out.

Kansas City at Baltimore: The total on this one opened up at 10-over (-115) and has stayed there with close to 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. I also made the total on this one 10.

Seattle at Tampa Bay: The total on this one is 8.5-under after opening at 8.5-over and seeing a slight majority of the wagers come in on the over. I made this one 9.

Angeles at Texas: The total on this one opened at 11 and has climbed up to 11.5-under with Peters and Allard the listed starters. I made this one 10.5, but no interest in playing this one due to the limited number of starts the pitchers have.

White Sox at Minnesota: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and has since shifted slightly to 9.5-over (-115) with more than 60% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I made the total on this one 9.

Detroit at Houston: The total here has shifted from 9.5 to 10 with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. Jackson’s numbers aren’t very impressive for the season, but he has thrown better since his latest call-up, with the Tigers allowing two runs in each of last two starts. I made the total on this one 9 and games with -390 favorites are 9-11 in totals since 2004, with the favored team winning by an average score of 5.15 to 2.95.

Season: 21-25-1 -7.70

END OF AUG. 19 PICKS

The typical Sunday fare, so we’ll get right to it, with games starting early, as is usually the case on Sunday.

San Diego at Philadelphia: This one opened 9.5 and is now 10.5-under (-115) with just 56% of the wagers on the over, while I made this one 8. There is a slight breeze blowing out, but will still go ahead and take a shot on the under right out of the gate.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: The total on this one opened 9.5-under and is now 9-over, so not much movement, with the game getting pretty decent two-way action. I made the total here 8.5.

Dodgers at Atlanta: The total on this one is now 10-over with Gonsolin getting the start instead of May for the Dodgers.

Milwaukee at Washington: The total here has moved from 10.5 to 11-under with pretty good two-way action. I have this one at 10.5.

Miami at Colorado: An interesting game from a totals perspective, as the total has moved from 13 to 14-under. Lambert has given up plenty of runs, as has Yamamoto after his strong start. The Rockies can score some runs, but asking the Fish to put up six or seven runs isn’t easy regardless of the ballpark they’re playing in. I made this one 12.5, but no real interest in taking a stand on this one.

San Francisco at Arizona: The total on this one opened at 9 and is holding pretty steady with a few places shifting the odds to 9-over (-115). Kelly has decent numbers, but the Giants are a much better hitting team away from home, so I made the total on this one 9.5.

Cubs vs. Pittsburgh: The total here has moved from 9.5-over to 10-under with two-thirds of the bets coming in on the over. Part of that likely has to do with bettors remembering all the runs when the Yankees and Red Sox played in London, although the fences in Williamsport have been moved in some to meet MLB regulations. I made the total on this one 9, but another game I really wouldn’t want to play.

Mets at Kansas City: A slight shift in this one from the opening number of 10-flat to 10-under (-115) after 70% of the wagers came in on the under. I made the total on this one 9, with Wheeler and Sparkman getting the starts for their respective teams.

Season: 20-25-1 -8.70

END OF AUG. 18 PICKS

Our computer snafu yesterday kept us off a win on the Rockies under – a game we had at 9 and it was 12.5 – which is how things have gone with totals this season and I say that not to boast, which is the last thing I’d do with totals this yearn, but as more of a warning. As bad as totals have gone this season, I don’t believe we’ve had three straight wins at any point.

Cubs at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 10.5-under (-115) with more than 70% of the early wagers on the over. I made this one 8.5 and will take the under here.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: The Reds opened as slight favorites and now the Cardinals and Mikolas are -116 after getting more than 70% of the early wagers. I have the Cardinals -115 here.total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 9-over or 9.5-under depending on your sportsbook with more than 60% of the wagers on the over. I have this one at 9.

San Diego at Philadelphia: This one has moved from 10 to 9.5-over with pretty mixed betting. I made this one 11 due to Eflin’s problems at home so far this year.

Milwaukee at Washington: This one has moved from its opening 10-under to 10-over (-115) with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. I made the total here 10.5.

Dodgers at Atlanta: Interesting move here, as the total has moved from 9.5 to 10 even with 67% of the early wagers coming in on the under. Much of that has to do with Ryu and his low ERA, but the Dodgers allow 3.73 runs in his road starts compared with 2.09 runs at home. Atlanta allows 6.77 runs per game with Foltynewicz on the mound and more than 7.0 when he starts at home, so can see the rationale for the slight reverse move.

San Francisco at Arizona: The total here opened at 10 and is now 10-over. I have it at 11, although that’s penciling in Webb as an average starter and allowing 4.84 runs over 9 innings.

Miami at Colorado: The Marlins became the first team to be shutout at Coors Field this year when they were blanked by Gray and Rockies. It was the 16th time Miami has been scoreless all season, wasting a solid effort from Sandy Alcantara. The total here has dropped from 13 to 12 and I made it 11.5.

Mets at Kansas City: The total here has moved from 8 to 8.5 and I made it 9.5.

Season: 19-25-1 -9.70

END OF AUG. 17 PICKS

Back after a couple days off, as the dismal effort of the totals was really getting to me, as sometimes stepping back for a day or two can pay dividends. After getting into a decent hole early, had climbed back to respectability, but then have turned around and dropped six straight.

Pretty good sized slate today, with a few day games.

Arizona at Colorado: Two good hitting teams against LHP, the total here opened at 12.5-over and is now 13-under with 70% of the wagers coming in on the over. Freeland has been absolutely brutal this season, and Colorado is 6-12 in his starts, allowing 6.78 runs per game after going 23-10 with him on the mound last year and allowing 3.06 runs. I set this one at 12.

Cincinnati at Washington: The total here opened 8.5-over and is now 9-under with the majority of wagers coming in on the under. I have it at 8.5.

Cubs at Phillies: This one moved from 9 to 9-under with two-thirds of the wagers on the under, while I have it at 9.5.

LA Dodgers at Miami: The total on this one opened at 8-flat and has since moved to 8-over (-115) after 80% of the early wagers came in on the over. I have this one at 8.5 and am going to take a shot on the over. The Marlins hit lefties a little better and away teams who scored 15 or more runs the previous game are 13-6-1 in totals this year and 22-13-3 regardless of location. The Fish scored six runs the lone time they faced Kershaw this season, but allowed 10.

Mets at Atlanta: This one opened at 10-under and has flopped to 10-over with a little more than 55% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made it 9.5.

Minnesota at Milwaukee: The total here opened 10-under and is now 9.5-under even though the betting has been pretty much even. I made this one 9.

Tampa Bay at San Diego: The total on this one is 9, with Beeks expected to start for the Rays, but he won’t last long. I also have it at 9.

Oakland at San Francisco: Bailey and Beede get the starts here and the total has moved from 9 to 9-under with three-quarters of the wagers on the over. I also made it 9.

Pittsburgh at Angeles: The total on this one opened 10 and is still there on good two-way action, while I have it at 11.

St. Louis at Kansas City: This one opened 10 and is now 10-under with more than 80% of the early wagers on the under.

Season: 18-25-1 -10.70

END OF AUG. 14 PICKS

A little bit of adverse weather in the forecasts for today, as we look to get untracked with the totals, which have dropped four in a row after making a bit of a climb.

Atlanta at Miami: The total on this one moved from 9-under to 8.5-over at the majority of sportsbooks despite their being a large number of over wagers, while I made this one 10. Foltynewicz is better than he’s shown this season, so not a game I’d get involved in.

Cubs at Cincinnati: The total on this one opened at 9 and has climbed slightly to 9.5-over with the majority of wagers on the over. I have this one at 9.

Washington at Mets: The total here climbed from 7.5-over to 8-under with a little more than half of the bets coming in on the over. I have this one at 9.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis: This one moved from 8.5 to 9-under (-115) with nearly two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 7, and will go ahead and take the under in this one.

Colorado at San Diego: The Padres were late naming Lamet as their starting pitcher and this one came out at 8.5 and has been holding pretty steady, although it’s moved to 8.5-over at the majority of sportsbooks. I have this one at 8.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: The game here at 9-flat and is now 9-under (-115) even though close to three-quarters of the wagers have been on the over. There is a bit of a cross-wind from left to right in this one, which should really give the pitchers or the hitters much of an advantage. I have this one at 7 and will make a stab on the under in this one as well, which is the late Sunday game.

Arizona at Dodgers: This one has moved from 8.5-under to 8-over with close to 60% of the wagers coming in on the under. Ryu solid at home, but Arizona a good-hitting team against lefties, which the Dodgers hit right-handers at home pretty well, so I have this one at 9.

Texas at Milwaukee: The total on this one is 9-over and the lines were released late for this one, which has Minor and Lyles as the starting pitchers. Minor has been decent on the road, but Lyles has struggled a bit, so I made this one 9.5.

END OF AUG. 11 PICKS

Season: 18-23-1 -8.40

Only four night games involving teams in the National League today, as it’s a travel day for some teams. Totals have taken a downward turn again after a decent little run, only to drop the last three.

Atlanta at Miami: The wind will be blowing out to right field at close to 10 mph, but the roof could very well be closed here, as it’s expected to be in the 80s at game time. The total opened 8.5-flat and has since moved to 8.5-over (-115) after 55% of the early wagers came in on the over. The Braves are 34-28-3 in totals after a win, while the Marlins are 29-33-8 in totals after a loss. Atlanta has gone under 56% of the time as an away favorite, while the Marlins are 25-21-5 as a home dog in totals, so nothings really in the way of trends, although Keuchel is 1-8 in his nine starts this season. Hernandez is 1-4-2 in his seven starts and I made this one 9.

Cubs at Cincinnati: A slight breeze blowing out towards right field is expected in this one, which opened 9.5-under (-115) and is still there with close to 75% of the wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 9, but neither pitcher has the number of starts you’d like to see, with Wood having just a pair and Hamels having nine road starts, where the Cubs are 5-3-1. I made this one 9 and the Reds are 6-12-2 as a home dog, but the Cubs are 14-11-3 as an away favorite, so we do get a few conflicting trends here.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: The total on this one opened at 7.5-under (-120) and is now 7.5-under (-115) with close to three-quarters of the early wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 6.5, but that’s not factoring in the wind, which right now is expected to be blowing out towards center at 20 mph, although the temps are expected to be around 60. Both pitchers average around one strikeout per inning so it will be a question of which one can adjust the best if the wind is taking a little off the fastball. Wanted to take the under here, but will just stay away.

Colorado at San Diego: The total here opened 8.5-under (-120) and is now 8.5-under (-115) and I have this one at 6.5, so will go ahead and take the under. The Padres are 2-7 in Lauer’s home starts this season, while the Rockies have gone 5-5-2 in Gray’s road starts, but are just 7-12-3 on the road against left-handed starters.

END OF AUG. 8 PICKS

Season: 18-22-1 -7.25

Have gotten stung the past few days with those late, meaningless runs, which is typical with how the season has gone so far.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 10-under (-115) after close to 75% of the early wagers came in on the over. I also have this one at 10.

Miami at New York Mets: This one opened at 8-flat and is now 8-over (-115) after seeing 70% of the early wagers come in on the over. Yamamoto has been inconsistent after a bit of a strong start, so a tough game to take a stand on. I also have this one at 8.

Philadelphia at Arizona: This one opened at 9.5 and has stayed there with a little more than 55% of the early wagers landing on the over. I have this one at 10, although Leake may pitch a little better with his new team. Arrieta has been halfway decent on the road, with Philadelphia allowing less than 4 runs per game.

Washington at San Francisco: Sanchez and Menez get the starts for their respective teams and the total opened 8.5-over (-115) and is now 8.5-flat with 65% of the early wagers on the under. I made this one 8.

St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers: I made the total here 9, while the number came out at 8 and is now up to 8-over (-120) with close to 40% of the wagers on the over.

Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati: The total here opened at 10-over and is still there despite seeing three-quarters of the wagers on the over. I made this one 10.5.

Oakland at Chicago Cubs: The total here opened at 9.5 and is now 9.5-under (-120) with roughly two-thirds of the bets coming in on the under. I made this one 7.5, so will go ahead and tag along with the under bettors on this one and take the under.

Atlanta at Minnesota: The total on this one opened at 10 and is now up to 10.5-under (-115), while I made the total here 11.

Colorado at Houston: The total on this one came out at 9-under and is all the down to 8-over (-120) with the betting being pretty well split. I made this one 7.5.

San Diego at Seattle: No line here, as the Mariners were late naming a starting pitcher.

Season: 18-21-1 -6.05

END OF AUG. 6 PICKS

Shane Green’s blown save yesterday prevented us from a sweep, as we lost with the under 8.5 in Atlanta, giving us a split on the diamond. On to Sunday and a decent slate with a couple of good games.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: This one opened at 9 and has shifted slightly to 9-over even though close to 60% of the wagers have been on the under. I made this one 8.

Mets at Pittsburgh: The total on this one has moved from 8.5 to 8 even though we’re seeing a little more than 60% of the early wagers land on the over. I have this one at 9.5.

Milwaukee at Cubs: The total on this one opened at 9 and is now 9-under with a few 8.5-overs starting to pop up. The majority of the wagers have been on the over and the wind is blowing in a little bit, but isn’t expected to be too terribly bad. I have this one at 9.5.

San Francisco at Colorado: The total here opened at 14, which had to be expected with the Rockies allowing more than 9 runs per game in Freeland’s home starts, but has dropped all the way down to 13-over with 56% of the bets coming in on the over. I have this one at 12.5.

Washington at Arizona: This one has moved from 9 to 9-over with 60% of the wagers on the over and was probably expected after the teams combined for 25 runs in yesterday’s game. Teams who scored 18 or more runs in their previous game are just 58-63 straight-up in their next game and 61-52-8 in totals. I made this one 10.

San Diego at Dodgers: Relatively low number for the Dodgers, as the number opened at 8 and is now 8.5 with the betting pretty well split. I also have this one at 8.5.

White Sox at Philadelphia: Small shift here from 9.5 to 9.5-under with 60% of the wagers landing on the over. I made this one 9.5.

Miami at Tampa Bay: The total here opened at 8.5-under and is now 8-flat with 60% of the wagers on the over. Caleb smith starts for the Fish and Chirinos gets the nod for the Rays and I have this one at 7.5 and will take the under here.

St. Louis at Oakland: This one moved from 9.5-under to 9-flat with 60% of the wagers on the over. I also have it at 9.

Season: 18-20-1 -4.95

END OF AUG. 4 PICKS

Almost everything will go off late today, with the exception of the Cubs game and the early portion of the Yankees’ day – night doubleheader with Boston.

Milwaukee at Cubs: The total on this one opened 9-under and is still there even with more than 60% of the early wagers on the under, sp perhaps we should have seen a little move. I made this one 7.

Mets at Pittsburgh: This one is much the same as the game above and you would have expected to see a little move, but the number has held steady. This one opened 9-over and is still there with just over 70% of the early wagers taking the over. I lso have this one at 9.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: The total here opened at 9-under and is now 8.5-over (-120) even though three-quarters of the bets have come in on the over. I made this one 7 and will go ahead and take the under at even money.

Washington at Arizona: The total here opened 8.5-over and is now down to 8.5-flat with 58% of the wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 7.5.

San Francisco at Colorado: Low total here for a Colorado home game, as the number opened at 12 and is now 11.5, but this is Gray’s third straight home start with a total less than 12. I made this one 11.

San Diego at Dodgers: The total here moved from 8 to 8.5-under with the majority of the early wagers on the under. I have this one at 9.5.

Miami at Tampa Bay: The total on this one opened at 8.5-under and has stayed pretty steady, while I made it 8.

White Sox at Philadelphia: The total on this one opened 9 and has climbed slightly to 9-over (-120) with a little less than 60% of the wagers landing on the over. I made the number here 9.5.

St. Louis at Oakland: The total on this one opened at 9 and has moved slightly to 9-over with the betting pretty mixed. I have the total on this one at 8.

Season: 18-19-1 -3.95

END OF AUG. 3 PICKS

Stunk it up on the diamond Thursday, dropping both the side and the total play in ugly fashion, so will hope for a little better result today, as we have a decent National League schedule on tap.

Milwaukee at Cubs: The total on this one opened at 8.5-over and is now 9-under with more than three-fourths of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 7.5 as both pitchers have been decent in their respective locations. There isn’t much wind at Wrigley today, with a slight breeze expected to be blowing in.

Mets at Pittsburgh: This one opened at 9.5-under and is still there with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 8, as the Pirates haven’t done a whole lot against LHP at home this season.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: Alex Wood makes his second start of the season for the Reds, who are just 50-57 despite having a positive run differential on the year. Gausman gets the start for the Braves and the total on this one has dropped slightly from 9.5-under to 9-over with close to 75% of the bets on the over. I have it at 8.5.

San Francisco at Colorado: This one opened at 14-under and is still there, with a few places knocking it down to 13.5-over, while I have this one at 13.5, but it’s one of those games you really don’t have a whole lot of interest in getting involved in.

Washington at Arizona: The total on this one opened 9.5-under and is still there with a little more than 60% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 8, but awfully hard to trust Ross, who can be prone to some ugly starts, but has seen his last four starts go under dating back to last year.

San Diego at Dodgers: May gets the start for the Dodgers and not really sure what to expect out of the 21-year-old in this spot, as the total has moved from 8.5-under to 8.5-over after 62% of the wagers came in on the over. LA hasn’t hit lefties as well as they have right-handers at home this year.

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia: Vargas makes the start for the Phillies and he’ll be opposed by Nova and this one opened at 9.5 and is now up to 10. I have this one at 8, as Chicago hasn’t hit LHP that well on the road and with Nova typically pitching well against his former team, will take a stab on the under 10 here.

Season: 17-19-1 -4.95

END OF AUG. 2 PICKS

A little bit of adverse weather and wind in the forecast today.

San Francisco at Philadelphia: An early start in this one, as Dereck Rodriguez comes back to the Giants, who face Jake Arrieta and the Phillies. The total on this one opened at 10-under and has shifted slightly to 10-over with a little more than 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 10.5.

Cubs at St. Louis: The total on this one opened at 9 and is now 8.5-under (-115) after 60% of the early wagers came in on the under. I have this one at 9, but a slight breeze is expected to be blowing in, so can see the sense behind the move.

Cincinnati at Atlanta: Not much wind expected for this one, but a pretty good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The total on this one opened at 10 and is now 9.5-under with close to 60% of the wagers on the under. I have this one at 9, but will stay away with the weather forecast a bit of a concern.

San Diego at Dodgers: The total here opened at 7.5 and is now 8-under with 55% of the early wagers on the over, so maybe we shouldn’t have seen the half-run move instead of a shifting of the odds. I made this one 7, but just going to stay away from this one.

Minnesota at Miami: The total on this one opened at 8 and held there for quite a while before finally jumping to 8.5-under with more than three-quarters of the early wagers on the over. The roof will likely be closed for this one as there’s a good chance of showers occurring.

Mets at White Sox: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 9.5-over (-115) with close to 75% of the wagers on the over. The pitchers are a little better than the total suggests, but we are looking at 11 mph winds blowing out to center, so going to go ahead and take the over here. The Mets allow more than 6 runs per game when Wheeler starts in the daytime and New York hits a little better in the daytime, as well.

Milwaukee at Oakland: The total here opened 9-over and has pretty much stayed there with the majority of bets coming in on the over. I made this one 9.5.

Season: 17-18-1 -3.80

END OF AUG. 1 PICKS

 

Still struggling on the totals, as haven’t really been able to put together any sort of streak. A bit of wind and adverse weather in the forecasts today.

Atlanta at Washington: Just a light breeze expected to blow in, but a decent chance for rain, as the total on this one opened at 10-over and is now 10-under with a good-sized majority of bets coming in on the under. I made this one 9.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: This one opened at 9.5 and is still there with a slight majority of the bets coming in on the over. I made this one 7.5, so will go ahead and take the under 9.5 at -110.

Dodgers at Colorado: A bit of a low total for this one, at least by Coors Field standards against the Dodgers, as it opened 12.5 and is now 12. The last six games against LA have seen totals of at least 12.5. I made this one 13.5 and Ryu was hit hard here last month.

San Francisco at Philadelphia: The total here opened at 10 and is now 10-under with pretty decent two-way action, while I have this one at 10.5.

Cubs at St. Louis: This one opened at 8.5 and is now 8-over with close to two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 7.5.

Arizona at New York: The total on this one opened at 10 and is now down to 9.5-under (-115) although we’re still seeing more over wagers than under bets. I made the total on this one 9.

Minnesota at Miami: The total on this one opened at 8-over (-120) and is now 8-over (-115) with the betting pretty much split down the middle in an interesting game from a handicapping perspective. The Twins should score some runs here, but it’s a question of if the Marlins can. I have this one at 8.5.

Mets at White Sox: The total here opened 8-under (-115) and is now 8-over (-115) even though the betting has been pretty much even on both the over and the under. I have this one at 7, but winds of 10 mph blowing out are expected.

Milwaukee at Oakland: The total on this one is 9-over, as Lyles throws for the Brewers, while I also have this one at 9. Lyles was a better pitcher on the road for the Pirates, but was inconsistent, with the Pirates allowing 3 or fewer runs in seven of his 17 starts, but also allowing 10 or more five times.

Season: 16-18-1 -4.80

END OF JULY 31 PICKS

Just when you think you’ve turned the corner, along comes an 0-fer and sends you back to the drawing board and a good lesson on why you can’t get too high when you’re winning or too low when things aren’t going your way, as Friday’s 3-0 day was followed by Saturday’s 0-3 effort.

The usual assortment of day games for Sunday and a fairly tough card, at least as far as looking for underdogs, as I have all the favorites winning, so will just stick to the totals play today and do some more work on football and other sports.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: This one with Gausman and Nola opened 9 and is now 9.5-under with close to 60% of the wagers on the under. I made this one 8.5.

Arizona at Miami: This one opened at 8 and is now 8-over with a little more than 70% of the wagers coming in on the over, while I also have it at 8.

Pittsburgh at Mets: The total on this one has shifted slightly from 9 to 9-over with 57% of the early bets on the over. I have this one at 8.

Colorado at Cincinnati: Alex Wood makes his debut for the Reds today and he looked pretty good in rehab starts in the minors. The total here is 10.5-under, which is right around what it opened at. I have this one 9.5 and will take a shot on the under with the wind coming in from right at 11 mph.

Dodgers at Washington: This one moved from 9 to 8.5 with the majority of wagers on the under, while I made this one 9.

Cubs at Milwaukee: This one opened at 10 and is now 10-under with close to three-quarters of the early wagers on the under. I made this one 9, although the wind is expected to blow out towards left-center at 8 mph.

San Francisco at San Diego: This opened at 8.5-under and the total is still there with 75% of the wagers on the under. Morejon was solid in his debut, but he has just the one outing this year and it’s hard to know to expect from him in this one.

Houston at St. Louis: This one with Miley and Hudson opened 9 and is now 9.5-under even though we’ve seen close to 60% of the bets come in on the under. I made this one 8.

Season: 15-18-1 -5.80

END OF JULY 28 PICKS

No early afternoon starts this Saturday, with a couple of late afternoon starts to get the day’s schedule off and running.

Dodgers at Washington: The total on this one opened at 10 and the number is still there with 57% of the early bets coming in on the under. I made this one 9.5. This is the third time Kershaw has had a total of 10 or higher in one of his games other than at Coors Field in his career.

Arizona at Miami: The total here opened at 8 and the number has dropped to 7.5-over with pretty good two-way action coming in. I made this one 9.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: This one opened at 10 and has since dropped down to 9.5 with the over getting a slight majority of the wagers so far. I made this one 9.5

Pittsburgh at Mets: The total in this one opened at 9 and has grudgingly made its way to 9-over (-120) with more than 75% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 8.5.

Cubs at Milwaukee: A better than 50% chance of some adverse weather in this one, the total opened at 9.5 and has shifted a little bit to 9.5-over (-115) with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 10.

Colorado at Cincinnati: This one opened at 10-over and is still there at the majority of sportsbooks, while a few others have moved it to 10.5-under. I have this one at 10.

San Francisco at San Diego: The total on this one opened at 8.5-under (-115) and has shifted to 8.5-over (-115) with 56% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 11 and will go ahead and take the over in this spot.

Houston at St. Louis: Decent move here, as the game opened at 8.5 and has seen 67% of the early wagers on the over, but the number has shifted to either 8.5-under (-120) or 8-over (-115). I aslo have this one at 8.

Season: 15-17-1 -4.65

END OF JULY 27 PICKS

Won the total, but lost the side play on Thursday, so on to Friday’s slate of games.

Colorado at Cincinnati: The total here opened at 9-under and is now 8.5-over with two-thirds of the wagers coming in on the over. Both pitchers have done well in their respective locations and both teams are a little below average offensively in their spots, so I have this one at 7, although a light breeze is expected to be blowing out.

Dodgers at Washington: The total here opened at 9 and is now 9.5-under with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over, while I have this one at 10.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: This one opened at 9.5 and is still there with the betting being fairly well mixed. I have this one at 8.

Pittsburgh at Mets: The total on this game opened at 8.5-over and is now 9-over with close to 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made the total on this one 7.

Arizona at Miami: The lone game with a total of less than 8 today, the game opened 7.5-over and is still there even though more than 80% of the early wagers have come in on the over. Games with a total of 7.5 or less have gone under the total 56% of the time this year and I made this one 8.

Cubs at Milwaukee: The total here opened 9.5-over and is now 9.5-under (-120) with 55% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 7.5 and will go ahead and take the under in this one.

San Francisco at San Diego: The total on this game opened at 8-over and it’s still there even though we’ve seen 55% of the wagers on the under, which is a bit of a surprise. I have the total on this one at 8.5.

Houston at St. Louis: This one opened at 9-over and the number has dropped to 8.5-over even though more than 60% of the early wagers have come in on the over. Urduidy was roughed up a little bit in his first two starts, but was pretty solid last time out, so not really sure what to expect in this one. I have the total at 10, but no interest in getting involved with this game.

Season: 14-17-1 -5.65

END OF JULY 26 PICKS

A push last time with our totals play, as the bullpens shut the door, as what looked like it was going to be a loser turned into no action, so one for the good guys there and one reason you can’t get too upset when the bullpen allows three runs in the ninth to take a win away.

San Diego at Mets: This one opened at 7.5 and is still there with the majority of wagers coming in on the under. I made this one 9.5 and there is a bit of a light breeze blowing in.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: The total on this one is 9 and it has shifted a little bit to 9-under at the majority of places with the betting being pretty balanced with just a few more under wagers than over plays. I have the total here at 10.

Colorado at Washington: The total on this one opened at 9 and is now 9-under with close to two-thirds of the wagers on the under. I made this one 8.5.

New York Yankees at Boston: The total on this one has moved from 11 to 11-over with 75% of the wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 11.5.

Minnesota at White Sox: The total on this one opened at 8.5 and has been bet up slightly to 8.5-over with a few more over wagers than under wagers coming in, although the betting is equal for the most part. I have this one at 10 and will go ahead and take the over here, with Berrios and Giolito the listed starters.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Plutko and Montgomery are the listed starters for this one, which opened 10.5 and is now 10 with close to two-thirds of the bets coming in on the under. I have this one 9.5.

Baltimore at Angels: This one opened at 10-over and is still there with 63% of the early wagers on the over. I made this one 11.

Texas at Oakland: Anderson and Jurado are the listed starters for this one, while opened 9.5 and is now 9.5-under after 60% of the wagers came in on the under. I have it 9.5.

Detroit at Seattle: Nothing on this one, with the Mariners not naming a starting pitcher yet. The Tigers will throw Drew VanHagen, who was recalled by Detroit.

Season: 13-17-1 -6.65

END OF JULY 25 PICKS

The dreaded half-run loss last night with the totals, which I was going to pass on today, but noticed there are no lines out for the WNBA even though it’s 11:00 a.m. EST, so might as well write this while we’re stuck in a holding pattern for hoops and the numbers are already calculated, which is the biggest time factor.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened 9.5 and is now 9-over even though two-thirds of the early wagers have come in on the over. I also have this one at 9.5.

Colorado at Washington: The total on this one also moved from 9.5 to 9-over with 60% of the wagers on the over. I made this one 9.5, as well.

San Diego at Mets: The total here opened at 8.5 and is now 8.5-under with a pretty good mixture of betting both ways. I have this one at 7.5.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is still there despite close to two-thirds of the wagers landing on the under. I made this one 8.

Cubs at San Francisco: The total here opened at 8-under and is now 7.5-under even though we’re seeing two-thirds of the wagers come in on the over. I made this one 7.

Philadelphia at Detroit: This one opened at 8.5 and is now 8-over with two-thirds of the early wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 7.5.

Kansas City at Atlanta: The total on this one opened 9.5 and is now 9.5-under, while I made it 8. The under is 6-0 in Keuchel’s starts this year, as he hasn’t allowed much and the Braves haven’t scored a whole lot when he’s on the mound either.

Miami at White Sox: The total on this one opened at 9-over and is now up to 9.5-under with the majority of early wagers coming in on the over. I have this one at 8.5.

Baltimore at Arizona: The total on this one opened 9.5-under and is now 9-over (-115) with close to 60% of the early wagers on the over. I mader the total on this one 7, so will go ahead and take the under 9 at -105 for today’s play.

Angels at Dodgers: The total on this one opened at 9 and is now 9.5-under, while I made this one 8.5.

Season: 13-17 -6.65

END OF JULY 23 PICKS

Still an uphill battle with the totals, where we split last time out, catching a bit of a break when scoring came to an abrupt end in Chicago after neither starter was particularly impressive with the wind blowing out.

Colorado at Washington: The total on this one opened at 10.5-over and quickly moved to 12-under with 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. Neither pitcher has really stunk it up, while the offenses have been fairly close to average, so I have this one at 10.5.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: The total here opened at 10-over and has dropped to 9.5 at the majority of sportsbooks with slightly more than half the bets coming in on the over. I made this one 9.5.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: This one opened at 9 and has stayed there with a slight shift in the odds to 9-under (-115) after more than 70% of the wagers came in on the under. I made this one 8.5.

Cubs at San Francisco: The total on this one opened 8.5 and has been bet up to 9-under at most places, while a few still have the game at 8.5-over. Tough game to get a decent read on due to the number of starts of the pitchers, but Anderson has been much better at home, where the Giants have allowed three or fewer runs in four of his five starts. The Cubs beat the Reds 4-3 in Mills’ season debut, where he allowed five hits and three runs in six innings. I made this one 8.5, but no real interest in getting involved.

Miami at Chicago White Sox: The total here opened at 10-under and is now 9.5-flat with more than 65% of the early wagers coming in on the over. Richards has been pretty solid on the road, where the Fish are allowing 4.14 runs when he starts, but much of that has to do with one poor start in Philadelphia, as Miami has allowed four or fewer runs in his other six away starts. Nova is coming off a strong start and a little worried about him stringing together back-to-back good starts, but I have this one at 8 and will take the under.

Baltimore at Arizona: The total on this one opened 9-over and is now down to 9-under with the majority of the wagers landing on the under. I made this one 9, as well.

Season: 13-17 -5.55

END OF JULY 22 PICKS

The wind is going to be blowing out at a number of stadiums today, so there could be a few high-scoring games.

San Diego at Cubs: The wind is blowing out in this one and the sportbooks started out with a total of 12 and it is now down to 11.5. The key here is how much weight to give the wind, as neither team hits left-handers particularly well and both pitchers have better than average numbers. I have this one at 8 and will take the under 11.5 for one of two plays today.

Mets at San Francisco: The total here opened at 8.5 and is now up to 9-under with a little more two-thirds of the early bets coming in on the over. The wind is blowing out close to 10 miles-per-hour.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 11 and is now down to 10.5 even with close to 60% of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 12.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: This one has moved from 9 to 9.5-under with more than 60% of the early wagers landing on the under. I made this one 8.5.

Washington at Atlanta: The total on this one opened 10.5 and is now settled in at 10. I made it 9.5.

Milwaukee at Arizona: The temperature is expected be 107 degrees at the start of the game, so not sure how long either starting pitcher is going to last, as the total opened at 9 and is now 9-under (-115) with close to two-thirds of the wagers on the under. I made the total on this one 8.

Miami at Dodgers: The total here has moved from 8 to 8-over with more than 60% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 7.

Colorado at Yankees: The total on this one opened at 11-over and is now 11.5-under (-115) with a few more over wagers coming in on the game. The wind is blowing from left to right and it’s going to be hot, with temps in the upper 90s. I made this one with Senzatela and Tanaka 9.5, so will go ahead and take the under in this one, as well.

Season: 12-16 -5.40

END OF JULY 20 PICKS

Managed to sneak under the number in Miami, only to see the Dodgers give it right back later in the day, so on to Friday’s games.

San Diego at Cubs: Strong wind blowing out to center for this one, which opened 12 and is now 12.5 even though we’ve seen a few more under wagers than over bets so far. Without the wind I would have this one at 8, but staying clear of this one.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh: The total on this one opened at 10 and has been bet up to 10.5 with more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 9.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: The total on this one opened at 10.5 and it’s dropped to 10 with 70% of the wagers coming in on the under. I also have this one at 9.

Washington at Atlanta: The total on this one opened at 10.5 and is now 10-over with pretty decent two-way action. I have this one at 11.

Milwaukee at Arizona: The total on this one has climbed from 9.5 to 10 with more than 80% of the early wagers on the over. I also have this one at 10.

Miami at Dodgers: The total on this one has dropped from 8 to 7.5-over despite more than 60% of the early wagers coming in on the over. There is a light breeze expected to be blowing in but just around 8 mph. I made this one 8, as Ryu has been pretty solid at home.

New York Mets at San Francisco: A slight shift in the total on this one, as the number has moved from 7.5 to 7.5-over with the majority of the wagers coming in on the over. The wind will be blowing out slightly towards left field and the wind should weaken a little bit as the game goes on.

Colorado at New York Yankees: Interesting game here, as the total opened at 11-under and is now 11.5-under (-115) after more than 75% of the wagers came in on the over. Freeland has been terrible this year, but most of the bad starts have come at home, where the Rockies are allowing 9.43 runs when he starts at Coors Field. On the road, Colorado allows and average of 4.67 runs, so will go against the grain and take a shot on the under.

Season: 11-16 -6.40

END OF JULY 19 PICKS

Last game pretty much summed up the season so far in relation to totals. A 5-2 game entering the ninth, only to see four runs scored and get stuck with a 9-2 final on our under 10 bet. But on to Thursday and hopefully a little better result.

San Diego at Miami: The total on this one opened at 8-under and 75% of the wagers have come in on the over, yet the line moved to 7.5-under (-115). The Padres have allowed five runs in each of Lamet’s two starts, although those were against Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers, two better hitting teams than Miami. The Fish are allowing 3.67 runs per game with Smith on the mound at home and his numbers are even better if you discount his first start, when they allowed seven runs. The Marlins haven’t allowed more than four runs in any of those other five games, so will take the under here, as I made it 6.5.

Dodgers at Phillies: The total on this one opened 9.5-under and is now 9-over on pretty mixed betting. I made the total on this one 8.5.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: This one opened 9.5-over and has climbed to 10-under despite the majority of wagers coming in on the under. Both pitchers have done well in their respective situations, so I have this one at 8.

Washington at Atlanta: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 9.5-under with the majority of the bets coming in on the under. I have this one at 9, as both teams are above average hitting the ball, but both pitchers have done well in today’s location.

Milwaukee at Arizona: The total on this one opened at 9.5 and is now 9.5-under despite more than 80% of the early wagers coming in on the over. Davies has had a few subpar road outings in a row and is a decent candidate to get back to form, while Kelly has solid home numbers but has been prone to following a decent game with one less than stellar. I made this one 8.5.

Mets at San Francisco: The total on this one opened at 7 and has climbed to 7-over with roughly three-quarters of the wagers coming in on the over. I made this one 7.5 in part due to the Giants really struggling to score at home.

Season: 10-16 -7.40

End of July 18 picks

Still can’t catch a break with the totals, as Sunday’s game became a no play due to the pitching change, something I didn’t find out until the game was over. Not the first time and won’t be the last, as we head to Tuesday, where the weather looks somewhat decent at the majority of stadiums.

Dodgers at Philadelphia: The total here opened at 9.5-over and is now 9-over (-125) with 63% of the wagers coming in on the over. I also have this one at 9.

San Diego at Miami: The total here opened at 8.5 and has dropped down to 8 with pretty mixed betting. I made this one 9.

Cincinnati at Cubs: The total on this one came out at 10.5 t most places and is now 10-over, with the traditional posting of the Wrigley Field total coming later in the day after the weather forecast is a little more etched in stone, or at least as much as it can be. The wind is expected to be calm for the most part, with a light breeze blowing out towards left field. I also made this one 9.

Atlanta at Milwaukee: The total here opened at 9.5-over and has stayed there with two-thirds of the wagers on the over. I have this one at 9.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis: The total on this one opened at 8.5-over and is now 9 with close to two-thirds of the wagers landing on the over. I have this one at 9, as well.

San Francisco at Colorado: The total here opened at 14 and is now 14.5-under with a few more over wagers coming in. I have this one at 14 and a slight breeze is expected to blow out towards right field.

Washington at Baltimore: This one opened at 11 and has climbed a little bit to 11.5-under with 55% of the early wagers on the over. I have this one at 12.5 with neither pitcher showing a whole lot in limited opportunities.

Arizona at Texas: The total here opened at 10.5 and is now 10 with 65% of the early wagers coming in on the under. I have this one at 8.5, so will go ahead and take the under in this one.

Mets at Minnesota: The total here opened at 10.5 and is now down to 10, while I made this one 11.

Season: 10-15 -6.30

 

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

MLB Power LinesView all

(967) CLEVELAND @ (968) NY METS | 7:10 pm 8/22/2019

Play Line: CLEVELAND 115
BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND -106

Edge On: CLEVELAND 21Bet Now
(961) DETROIT @ (962) HOUSTON | 8:10 pm 8/22/2019

Play Line: DETROIT 429
BTB PowerLine: DETROIT +387

Edge On: DETROIT 42Bet Now
(969) TORONTO @ (970) LA DODGERS | 10:10 pm 8/22/2019

Play Line: TORONTO 213
BTB PowerLine: TORONTO +140

Edge On: TORONTO 73Bet Now