Last Updated: 2018-12-30
We finally won a playoff side bet on Saturday, but came up a run short with the total on the Yankees game, so we’re sitting 1-3 on sides and 3-1 on totals, so we’re spinning our wheels a little bit.
Milwaukee at Colorado: Tough game to get a read on here, as there plenty of rain in the forecast, beginning at 45% for the start of the game and increasing to 70% several hours into the game. Difficult to tell how long MLB would sit it out.
The total moved to 9.5-under after opening at 9.5 and seeing a good two-way mixture of betting, although 9.5 is pretty low for a total at Coors Field and it’s the ninth time this season we’ve seen a total less than 10. The first eight games saw a record of 2-6 and an average of 8 runs per game. Just going to stay away from this one, as there are too many unknowns right now.
Dodgers at Atlanta: The Braves are still looking for their first runs of this series and bettors aren’t so sure they’re going to get them, as this total opened 8 and is still there with 58% of the wagers coming in on the under, which is something you don’t see all that often. To make matters worse, the Braves now have to face Walker Buehler, who has probably been the Dodgers most consistent pitcher down the stretch, with Los Angeles allowing just 2.45 runs per game with him on the mound since the beginning of August. The Dodgers have allowed 3.42 runs per game with Kershaw on the mound.
Over his last four starts the Dodgers have allowed eight runs and Buehler has allowed two earned runs over his last 26 2/3 innings, while Newcomb has really struggled at home, with the Braves allowing at least five runs in each of his last five home starts.
Going to take a stab on the over 8 in this game, as Newcomb’s home struggles are a little tough to ignore. His overall numbers are decent, but he’s fared much better on the road, while Buehler is a better pitcher at home.
The Dodgers are a better hitting team against left-handers on the road, where they averaged 5.24 runs per game compared to 4.19 at home and the Braves averaged 5.19 runs per game at home against RHP compared to 4.35 on the road, so we have a few favorable situations working for us.
END OF OCT. 7 PICKS
Looking to keep the total run going today, as well as break the skid on the side plays, as we have the two American League games today.
Cleveland at Houston: This total opened at 7-over and stayed there for the longest time before we started seeing a few sportsbooks break away and move the line to 7.5-under. The majority are still hanging onto 7 even though 70% of the wagers have come in on the over.
Despite Cole pitching exceptionally well at home he was still a slight over pitcher, which has a lot more to do with the Astros scoring 6.33 runs per game than it does him allowing 2.53 runs. For the season, Hosuton was 9-6 in totals when Cole started at home.
Carrasco’s totals record of 7-9 was a better indication of how he threw, as Cleveland allowed 3.5 runs when he was on the mound away from home and scored 4.44. I made this one 7 and gave some serious consideration to the under, but will end up just staying away from this one.
New York Yankees at Boston: The total on this one opened at 9 and has shifted slightly to 9-under (-115) even though 75% of the wagers are on the over and it’s hard to fault bettors who go that way when you look at the two offenses involved, as either one is capable of putting up plenty of runs.
The Yankees were 7-6-1 in totals when Tanaka started on the road, including a 10-7 victory at Fenway when Tanaka and Price were the starting pitchers. New York scored three runs or less just three times when he started and were typically between four and five runs.
The Red Sox were 7-7-2 in totals when Price started at home, scoring 6.56 runs per game, although that is a little bit distorted due to the 19 runs they piled on against the Orioles. Four times, the Sox scored three runs or less for Price, a couple of times against some tough pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola and a few other times against starters you would think Boston would have an easier time with.
This is one of those games where I’m pushing it a little bit, because it is the playoffs, and my numbers make this one 8.87 runs, but I’ll go ahead and take the over, as I have each team scoring a minimum of 4.35 runs and if that happens, the worst we can do is push, so I’ll make a small play on the over here.
END OF OCT. 6 PICKS
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