A full slate of MLB action is on the Friday schedule, although the Nationals and Cubs are playing early, so that throws a minor wrench into the DFS landscape. As a result, we’ll exclude that game from consideration and focus instead on the 14 night games for May 6. There are four hurlers in the five-figure price range and several more above $9,000, so it could be a great night for pitching. It’s actually an incredible night for pitching if you look up and down the probables list, maybe one of the best in recent memory.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for May 6:
Cincinnati – We’ll go back to the well with the Reds tonight. It’s not a great night for stacking any teams, really, because there are just so many high-level pitchers on the mound. The Reds did some damage yesterday against Chase Anderson and hopefully they can ride that momentum into today. Cravy has made five relief appearances for the Brewers this season and had a cup of coffee as a starter last season. There’s not a lot of Major League ready upside in his arsenal and this is a poor bullpen. The Reds should get some good opportunities here.
Boston – I’m a big fan of strikeouts and of limiting baserunners with good control. Michael Pineda does those two things. But, he also lives in the middle of the plate and his command has been terrible. He’s working on another season with an ugly home run rate and a high BABIP against because he lacks command. He bobbed and weaved through five innings against Boston last time out, but now he draws them again. He’s given up 28 HR and 211 hits in his last 187.2 innings of work.
Minnesota – The Regression Monster is lurking behind Mat Latos. Somebody will activate it. Perhaps it’ll be the Twins. Even after allowing four runs on 11 hits last time out against Baltimore, Latos owns a 1.84 ERA with a .228 BABIP against and a horrible strikeout rate. His 4.98 xFIP and his 4.96 SIERA are clear indicators that regression is coming. Perhaps the Twins, facing him for the second time this season, can be the ones to deal that misfortune. His LOB% of 93.8 percent is wildly unsustainable. If he doesn’t get knocked around a bit here, I’d look to continue stacking against him, because it is coming.
Here are the top value hitters for May 6:
Nolan Arenado ($4,000) – I don’t care who Nolan Arenado is facing. If you get him at this price, it’s a win. The Rockies third baseman is arguably the best power hitter in baseball right now. Over his last 185 games, Arenado has hit 54 home runs. This season, he owns a .300/.369/.664 slash and has cut his strikeout rate dramatically. It’s fair that his numbers are inflated by Coors Field, but he is a career .291/.355/.533 batter with the platoon advantage.
Nick Castellanos ($3,700) – If you want to go a different route at third base, give Nick Castellanos a look against Cole Hamels. Castellanos is raking at a .383/.390/.626 clip this season. The amazing thing is that last season’s success against southpaws has evaded him. But, the Tigers third baseman was a .351/.400/.570 hitter against lefties last season and I’ll trust that over a small sample size against them this season.
Nomar Mazara ($3,200) – It’s been a few days since we’ve checked in on Nomar Mazara. He’s not really slowing down as pitchers make adjustments. The power has ticked down a bit, but he’s still batting .308/.364/.385 over his last 10 games. Texas is a possible stacking option today to go against Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a low K rate with a .267 BABIP against and a 92.3 percent strand rate. In 61 PA against RHP, Mazara has a .365/.426/.558 slash.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 6:
Rich Hill ($7,400) – Skeptics are still everywhere regarding Rich Hill, but all the guy has done since he became a starter is strike people out. Over his last 10 starts, Hill has allowed 14 earned runs on 40 hits over 61 innings and has struck out 77 batters. That kind of strikeout upside at this price on a night with so many great pitchers is definitely worthy of consideration.
Aaron Blair ($6,700) – We’ll take a flyer on the kid here today against his former team. Aaron Blair came to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller deal, which has not worked out well for Arizona as of yet. The Diamondbacks are in a massive slump right now, as they have dropped six straight and can’t seem to score many runs. Blair has some swing-and-miss upside, though he hasn’t really shown it at the upper levels. Six innings with four or five strikeouts and a couple of earned runs would give you the opportunity to roster a top arm.
Chris Archer ($9,400) – In the quest to figure out which one of the great arms to use tonight, we’ll go with Chris Archer. Archer’s strikeout stuff has always been there and his confidence is growing now as well. The Angels don’t see much of Archer and he has three legitimate plus pitches. The Angels are 23rd in wOBA and have a low walk rate against RHP on the season, so Archer should have plenty of success on Friday.