Eleven early games and four late afternoon/night games are on the DFS docket for this Mother’s Day Sunday. Pitcher salaries are all over the map and lineups are going to look pretty interesting for most teams. It’s always best to wait a little bit longer on Sundays before locking in your roster because players are getting the day off and that will elevate some lesser players up the lineup a bit. You can get bargain prices on guys batting in premium spots in the order and that can make all the difference with these Sunday contests.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for May 8:
Philadelphia – Justin Nicolino seems to be a master at inducing weak contact, but his margin for error is incredibly thin because he doesn’t strike anybody out. Nicolino has 25 strikeouts in 87.1 career Major League innings, which has to be pretty close to the lowest strikeout rate (7.1 percent) of anybody with at least 350 total batters faced. With so many balls in play, bad things always have a chance of happening and nobody is interested in stacking the Phillies. That could be the break that you need in order to have success.
Boston – Everybody is looking at Luis Severino as a guy in line for positive regression. Good things start happening when you start throwing better pitches. For Severino, a 6.31 ERA is a pretty good indicator of just how poor his command has been. He has a .363 BABIP against with a 27.4 percent line drive rate and a 29.5 percent rate of hard contact. He’s also allowed four home runs. The Red Sox have one of the top offenses in the league by several metrics and Severino may simply need more time in Triple-A to refine his secondary offerings and his fastball command.
Houston – Hisashi Iwakuma just doesn’t look right at the start of the season. His control has gone from impeccable to average and he’s giving up quite a few line drives. His HR/FB% is 9.8 percent, which is quite a bit better than his 13.5 percent career mark. He’s inducing a lot of pop ups. When those two rates adjust, things could go from bad to worse for Iwakuma. Houston isn’t out of its offensive shell yet, but Iwakuma is not getting ground balls at the same rate and Minute Maid Park can be scary for pitchers allowing a lot of aerial contact.
Here are the top value hitters for May 8:
JD Martinez ($3,800) – This is a very low price for the slugging Tigers outfielder. JD Martinez gets a platoon advantage against Martin Perez and he’s done well with those types of matchups in the past. He owns a .280/.349/.510 slash overall and he’s hit 20 HR over his last 288 PA against southpaws. Even though he’s struggling this season, he has four extra-base hits in 23 PA against lefties.
Kendrys Morales ($3,500) – Kendrys Morales is off to a very slow start this season, but he hit a ball that hasn’t landed yet off of Cody Anderson on Saturday. With a matchup against Josh Tomlin, another hurler prone to giving up dingers, coming up on Sunday, Morales is certainly worth a look in the middle of the Royals lineup.
Bryce Harper ($3,900) – Yes, Bryce Harper and the Nationals face Jake Arrieta on Sunday. But, you’re almost never going to see Harper at this price, unless he’s facing Clayton Kershaw or Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is elite and has been incredible for the last year and a half, but Harper is also an elite hitter. If anybody’s going to get to Arrieta, it’s a guy like this. At this price, you really can’t go wrong with gambling on one of the game’s best.
Here are the value pitchers for May 8:
John Lamb ($7,200) – John Lamb has strikeout upside and that’s what we look for at prices like this. You don’t need a dominant outing from a starter for him to validate a price tag in the $6000-7500 range. For Lamb, he has 62 strikeouts in 55.2 MLB innings in his career, so the expectation would be for about a strikeout per inning against a pretty lackluster Brewers lineup.
Tyler Duffey ($7,100) – Tyler Duffey has been really good in his 12 career MLB starts and it’s not like the Chicago White Sox are a lineup to fear, even though they’ve had a decent series here against Twins pitching. Duffey has 61 K in 68.1 innings of work and doesn’t really hurt himself with walks. He’s a pretty good upside play at a low price here today.
Justin Verlander ($7,800) – The lanky right-hander is worthy of consideration here today against a Texas team that heads home to open up a nice homestand after today’s contest. Verlander hasn’t had the results he’s looking for, but he’s got pitchability and a high spin rate four-seamer that works well when he throws it up in the zone. He has strikeout per inning potential here and the Rangers have already wrapped up the series, so maybe they have one foot towards the plane.