It’s a busy Monday in the big leagues. There are 13 games on tap, so only four of the league’s 30 teams are enjoying a day off to prepare for what comes next. The pitching market for DFS players is very interesting today. There are five pitchers that will cost you a pretty penny and then only two between $7,700 and $10,900 in DraftKings formats. That’s a really big gap between the best and the not-the-best. With that, it should be a fun day to put the pieces of the puzzle together in order to try and win big money on the diamond.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for May 9:
Colorado – Archie Bradley gets the ball for the Diamondbacks today and that start comes at Coors Field. You already know the drill by now. Games at Coors Field have taken some of the fun and skill away from DFS contests. You could always stack the Diamondbacks as well, although they haven’t done a whole lot of scoring here lately. But, the Rockies should get plenty of good cuts against Bradley. The 23-year-old owns a 6.30/5.28/5.24 slash line over his 40 Major League innings and he has walked more batters than he has struck out.
San Francisco – I’ve been waiting for regression to hit Aaron Sanchez. This might be the spot. Even though he should have more success with National League lineups, there are a lot of really talented bats in this Giants lineup. Sanchez has been really strong, posting a .278 BABIP against and a 79 percent strand rate. With such an extreme ground ball rate, a BABIP that low is probably unsustainable. Lefties hit .279/.390/.488 against him last season. This year, they are batting .250/.333/.413. Maybe I’m being too critical of Sanchez, but I’m curious to see how he fares here.
Washington – Anibal Sanchez gets a minor reprieve with this start in a National League park, but he’s been terrible this season. The strikeouts are still there, but Sanchez sports a 5.87/5.09/4.74 pitcher slash this season and he has no control or command. The Nationals are looking to let out some frustration after a horrible series in Chicago. Sanchez is giving up a lot of hard contact and he has walked 13.6 percent of the batters that he has faced.
Here are the top value hitters for May 9:
Manny Machado ($4,400) – Manny Machado is riding a high into Minnesota after a two-homer game on Sunday. That’s not why we like him today, however. Machado draws Jose Berrios, a very promising prospect for the Twins that is still fighting with his control and command at the big league level. In 9.1 innings, Berrios has 13 K, but he’s also walked seven and has given up a couple of home runs. Machado is coming at a reduced price because of Target Field, but it’s a decent hitter’s park for righties.
Francisco Lindor ($3,600) – Francisco Lindor has a really good matchup against Mike Fiers tonight. Lindor is one of the few Indians that has shown a knack for hitting high fastballs this season and that’s the approach that Mike Fiers likes to take. We all expected some regression in Lindor’s power numbers, but his walk rate is up from 6.2 percent to nine percent and he’s slashing .324/.388/.426. He’s also swiped five bags already in 28 games after taking 12 in 99 games last season.
Derek Dietrich ($3,400) – The Marlins are actually a decent stacking option, particularly the left-handed ones, on Monday night. Wily Peralta returns from the paternity list and he’ll take his 7.50/5.54/5.08 pitcher slash to the bump in this one. Lefties are hitting a robust .328/.418/.589 against him this season. In his career, lefties are batting .286/.351/.463. Dietrich is one of those left-handed sticks that excels on the fat side of the platoon and he’ll get a lot of playing time now with Dee Gordon’s suspension.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 9:
Matt Moore ($7,600) – Matt Moore has a pretty favorable assignment tonight against the left-handed-heavy Mariners. Seattle has actually been better than expected against southpaws this season, even though they rank 19th in wOBA. Strikeout upside is the biggest factor in looking for these cheaper starters and Moore certainly has that, averaging better than a strikeout per inning so far this season. His home run troubles could also be suppressed a bit at Safeco Field.
Jose Fernandez ($11,300) – You have to pick and choose your battles with these expensive arms, but Jose Fernandez is a good battle to pick. The Marlins right-hander gets a Brewers lineup that is fourth in K% against RHP this season at 25 percent. Fernandez has rung up 47 of the 142 batters that he has faced so far this season. Milwaukee’s best offensive asset is power and Marlins Park is very stingy in that regard. No player is a sure-fire bet in DFS, but Fernandez is close tonight.
Tyler Chatwood ($6,600) – It’s not a great day for finding value in the pitching market. It’s probably not in your best interest to roll with a Rockies pitcher at home either, but there are some interesting things about Chatwood. He’s not hurting himself at all with walks and has gotten back to that nice ground ball split that he had before he was injured. Arizona has had a rough travel schedule lately and a stop in the high altitude may not be all that beneficial for them. There are worse options out there than Chatwood.