Technically, daily fantasy baseball have an extra game to consider on today’s schedule. Sixteen games are available to players with a day/night twin bill in the Windy City with the Padres and Cubs honoring Ernie Banks by playing two. The day is spread out quite nicely, with seven afternoon games and nine nighttime games. Be wary of the day game lineups today, since teams are very likely to rest players that played last night, and also be wary of Game 1 between the Cubs and Padres. Other than that, run wild and good luck tonight!
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for May 11:
Texas (early) – With any luck, the Mat Latos Regression Tour 2016 will continue its cross-country trek. Latos is still in line for a lot of regression, with a .250 BABIP against, an 87.9 percent strand rate, and a pathetic 13.4 percent K%. Latos has a 2.62 ERA with a 4.46 FIP and a 4.95 xFIP. His 4.93 SIERA doesn’t suggest good things either. Over his last two starts, Latos has allowed eight runs on 18 hits over 10 innings with three HR allowed and a 6/3 K/BB ratio. The expectation is that Latos’s HR/FB% will continue to regress, which is good for us in Arlington.
Pittsburgh (late) - The Blind Squirrel Theory allowed Alfredo Simon to find a nut last week. There’s no reason to expect the same thing here tonight. A good start for Simon was giving up three runs on seven hits in 7.2 innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s definitely good enough, a 3.52 ERA, but he did benefit from some fortunate sequencing to get out of some jams. He has a 9.86/6.93/4.77 pitcher slash on the season and a 52.6/4.81/4.64 since the All-Star Break in 2014.
Kansas City (late) – The slumping Royals offense scored 10 runs and the team still lost on Tuesday night. What’s in store for an encore? Who knows, but I like their chances against Michael Pineda. This is the type of lineup that minimizes Pineda’s biggest strength – his K/BB ratio. The Royals put a ton of balls in play anyway. His command continues to be terrible, with a .357 BABIP, a 20.5 percent HR/FB%, and a hard-contact rate over 30 percent. The basic numbers show regression, but the command profile shows a guy that should keep struggling until he starts throwing better pitches.
Here are the top value hitters for May 11:
Ryan Raburn (early) ($3,600) – In a very small sample size this season, Ryan Raburn owns a .389/.478/1.000 slash against left-handed pitching. These numbers may not continue at that clip, but this is a guy that has carved out quite a niche as a platoon bat. Last season, Raburn slashed .325/.415/.589 against southpaws and three years ago he owned a .308/.403/.617 slash. An injury-riddled 2014 was a blemish on his career splits, but he’s been an excellent hitter against lefties for the most part.
Jonathan Schoop (early) ($3,400) – Cheap power should be the goal of any value pick. Jonathan Schoop fits the bill. Schoop has not yet found the power stroke that produced a .482 SLG last season, but he has five home runs already and power at second base isn’t the easiest to come by. We know that Twins starter Phil Hughes has a penchant for giving up dingers and Schoop is a guy that has the ability to turn around mistakes and hit them out of the ballpark.
Carlos Beltran (late) ($3,400) – Old man Carlos Beltran is still flashing that power stroke against right-handed pitching. Beltran has hit five dingers in 78 PA against righties on the season. That short porch at Yankee Stadium has been the site of four of them. That’s good enough for a .487 SLG and he draws Yordano Ventura, whose command can be pretty spotty at times. You could do a lot worse at this price, and, again, power potential at a low cost.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 11:
Kyle Hendricks (early) ($9,000) – It’s time to believe in Kyle Hendricks. For me, that time was last season. The strikeout rate from last season hasn’t shown up yet, but he could face a pretty watered-down Padres lineup in Game 1 of today’s double dip. Even if he doesn’t, Hendricks has elite control and very good command. He’s actually in line for a little bit of positive regression if you believe his LOB% of 66.4 percent will start to climb.
Jerad Eickhoff (late) ($8,000) – Jerad Eickhoff has shown so far that his strikeout rate from last season was not a mirage. The Phillies right-hander draws the awful Atlanta Braves, who fell to 1-16 at home yesterday. Eickhoff now has 83 K in 87.1 MLB innings and a better than 4/1 K/BB ratio. His low strand rate this season should positively regress, lowering that 4.21 ERA that is not a good indication of how well he has pitched.
Jaime Garcia (late) ($8,900) – I’ll buy some stock in Jaime Garcia today. The unfamiliar lefty angle is in play and Garcia has been better than a strikeout per inning hurler so far this season. The low BABIP isn’t sustainable with a ground ball rate like his, but we want strikeouts at reasonable prices when looking for value guys. The Angels are also bad and getting worse.