Judging by the pitcher salaries on DraftKings, it should be a good day to be a hitter. All 30 teams are in action, weather permitting, on Friday, with just one day game between the Cubs and Pirates. That game will be excluded from today’s write-up as we look for those pieces and parts that will help you win cash in your DFS contests. There are a lot of options today, so incorporating a little bit of extra research is probably going to be the difference between a win and a loss.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for May 13:
Washington – At some point, intentionally walking Bryce Harper is going to come back to hurt some team in a very big way. It won’t make Tom Koehler’s job any easier to add extra baserunners. Koehler has massive home/road splits and this start comes at Nationals Park. In a small sample size of 13 innings this year, Koehler has a 7.90 ERA and hitters are batting .333/.433/.509. This supports a career trend in which Koehler has a 4.70 ERA with a .263/.340/.428 slash against. The AVG, OBP, SLG discrepancies from road to home are +.022, +.022, +.048, so he very clearly struggles away from Marlins Park.
Colorado/New York Mets – Games at Coors Field. You know what to do. Matt Harvey has shown some major command issues and seems to tire out in the middle innings per those that have been watching him, so Colorado definitely carries some value today. On the Mets side, Jon Gray has thrown the ball really well, but Coors Field does bad things. In two road starts, he’s allowed two runs over 14 innings with a 16/3 K/BB. In two home starts, he’s allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in 8.2 innings.
Toronto – A lot of people will look to stack Texas against RA Dickey. I’ll go the other way and stack against Martin Perez. The Blue Jays offense is still trying to awaken from its offseason slumber, but Perez is the right type of guy to come around against. He has a terrible K/BB ratio this season and the Jays, for all of their power hitters, are a pretty patient lineup overall. Perez has a 3.51 ERA, a 4.66 FIP, and a 4.85 xFIP. He’s already matched last season’s HR total in 37.2 fewer innings and he’s sporting a .250 BABIP with a high ground ball rate. That’s a sign of regression.
Here are the top value hitters for May 13:
Odubel Herrera ($3,300) – Odubel Herrera has been a bargain more often than not in DFS formats this season. The nice thing about him is that he still has the ability to make things happen against same-side pitching. Herrera’s power comes against righties, but he’s still a .297 career hitter against lefties with a .368 OBP. If he can set the table, hopefully the Phillies can do some damage against the inconsistent Brandon Finnegan.
Oswaldo Arcia ($3,800) – Somebody is going to homer against Josh Tomlin on Friday night. Picking the right Minnesota Twin is a little bit difficult, but Oswaldo Arcia should have a pretty good shot. The slugging right fielder has four dingers against RHP in 64 PA on the season. He owns a .482 SLG with the platoon advantage in his career with 34 HR in just 633 plate appearances.
Brandon Moss ($3,600) – The goal of most value picks is to find cheap power. We get that in Brandon Moss, who is only batting .236 against RHP on the season, but he’s hit seven home runs in just 83 PA. His .569 SLG has allowed him to carry a .373 wOBA and a 131 wRC+ with a platoon advantage.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 13:
Nick Tropeano ($5,800) – Any time Nick Tropeano pitches in a park that suppresses home runs, he’s worth streaming. Tropeano is a pretty extreme fly ball guy and he’s added the strikeout to his Major League repertoire. Tropeano now has 87 K in 91 IP and he’s got 36 in 31.2 innings so far this season. He hasn’t been very efficient, so it may be a shorter outing, but even five or six innings with low runs allowed and a strikeout per inning is more than enough to be a complement with Chris Sale.
Nathan Karns ($8,200) – This one in Seattle could be very low-scoring tonight. Nate Karns is a guy capable of racking up a strikeout per inning and it’s hard to find a better lineup to face in the AL than the Angels. Karns also has 38 strikeouts in 34.2 innings and probably has a better defense behind him than Tropeano now that Andrelton Simmons is out. There’s a lot to like about both starters tonight and hopefully one of them can scratch out the win.
Edinson Volquez ($8,000) – Edinson Volquez has been able to maintain that velocity increase that he picked up last season and has the best matchup on the board today against the league’s worst offense. The Braves are a pitiful group and adding an extra bat to the lineup in an AL park isn’t going to help them. This is a decent bounce back situation for Volquez, who has 36 strikeouts in 41.2 innings of work so far this season. The Royals defense always makes him an interesting streaming candidate.