It could be a big Saturday for offense on the diamond, with only a handful of top-tier starting pitchers on the mound. On the other hand, some of those back-end of the rotation guys could take a big step forward and really baffle their opponents. The inherent volatility of Major League Baseball makes it difficult to handicap and play in DFS formats, but we do it because we love it. Or because it supplements us. Or because it creates a living for us. Whatever the case, Saturday is just another day of baseball, regardless of who’s playing and who’s pitching.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for June 11:
New York Mets (early) – The Mets draw Wily Peralta on Saturday. We know all about Wily Peralta. The right-hander owns a 6.79 ERA with a 5.44 FIP and a 4.86 xFIP. The Brewers are considering moving him out of the rotation and into a swingman/spot starter role, assuming they keep him at all. Even a young, rebuilding team can’t watch these performances. The Mets should feast and handedness doesn’t matter. Lefties have a .382 wOBA and righties have a .458 wOBA(!!).
Boston (early) – The Red Sox will get their hacks against Kyle Gibson on Saturday. Gibson returns from the disabled list to make this start, so it’s highly unlikely that he will be sharp. It’s not good to have poor command against the Red Sox, who have been the league’s top offensive ballclub most of the season. Gibson looked okay in three rehab starts, two at High-A, but he doesn’t miss many bats and has below average control. The command is okay, usually, but this could be a rough outing for him.
Seattle (late) – Colby Lewis can’t sustain this, right? Lewis has a 3.20 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.66 xFIP on the season. Lewis has stranded 82.9 percent of his runners, despite a well below average strikeout rate. With men on base, Lewis has been fortunate with a .256 BABIP against and eight of his 11 home runs have been solo shots. The Mariners have been a top-10 offense all season against righties in wOBA and sat fourth in that split entering play on Friday.
Here are the top value hitters for June 11:
Nolan Arenado (early) ($5,600) – Sure, he’s the most expensive hitter in DFS, but this is an opportunity to pick up a huge stat line from some of the Rockies. Erik Johnson makes his first start for his new team, the San Diego Padres, and it just so happens to come in Coors Field. Johnson has made one career start at Coors and the Rockies hung a .375/.423/.542 slash line on him. It’s not a good place for pitchers, especially those trying to make an impression with a new team.
Manny Machado (early) ($4,000) – Be sure to check on the status of Manny Machado’s appeal before locking this one in on Saturday. Machado and the Orioles take on JA Happ and the Blue Jays. Machado has better splits against righties, which is a little bit surprising, but he’s still an above average stick against southpaws as well. Machado is a valuable hitter in any capacity and this is a very reasonable price.
Jhonny Peralta (late) ($3,400) – The Cardinals shortstop has swung a good swing since returning from a thumb injury that cost him the first couple months of the season. Peralta is a guy that has fared better with the platoon advantage throughout his career. He has a .342 wOBA and a 112 wRC+ against southpaws over a very large sample size. He has better power in this split, so that’s worth buying into with Francisco Liriano’s inconsistency on display.
Here are the top value pitchers for June 11:
Logan Verrett (early) ($5,100) – I really like to back Logan Verrett in these spot starts. He’s made seven spot starts in his career and has pitched a total of 37 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 3.89 ERA. Bad batted ball luck has gotten him in his three starts this season, but he’s a reliable, cheap option to pair with one of the top arms on the board at a much higher price. The Brewers are not a good offense and strike out often against right-handed pitching.
James Paxton (late) ($7,400) – One of the cardinal rules in any sport is not to overreact to what you just saw, but it’s really hard not be excited about what we saw from James Paxton on Monday night. Paxton was touching triple digits on the radar gun and showcased two plus secondary pitches. It’s always been about health for the Mariners left-hander. He has a chance to rack up some strikeouts at a low price on Saturday.
Matt Shoemaker (late) ($7,600) – Matt Shoemaker recently made an arsenal change to throw more splitters and the results have been extremely impressive. Over his last four starts, Shoemaker has allowed eight runs on 28 hits over 30.1 innings of work with 37 strikeouts and zero walks. The Indians haven’t seen this new repertoire and the middle game of a series out on the west coast could be a little bit of a tricky spot.